With nearly every pollster in the game having pitched in last week, a quiet period looms. The weekly Roy Morgan should be along later today as always, and DemosAU is about due for one of its big-sample MRP projections. On the broader electoral front, there is the following to report:
• The Weekend Australian had the quarterly Newspoll detailed breakdowns from its four polls conducted in April, May and June. The state results show movement towards One Nation and away from Labor clearly evident in Victoria and South Australia, less evident in New South Wales, and not at all evident in Queensland and Western Australia, with Labor gaining three points in the former case. Breakdowns by education are distinctive in that One Nation is up six among those with technical qualifications, but effectively unchanged for everyone else. Voting intention is barely changed among 18-to-34s, whereas One Nation are up significantly among the older cohorts. Presumably inspired by the budget tax measures, the breakdowns now include housing tenure, as commonly featured by other pollsters. To commemorate the occasion, I have added tabs for these results to the BludgerTrack poll data features (keep clicking the “more” tab until you see them).
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published an interim report from its routine inquiry into the last election, which notably focuses on aggressive behaviour at polling booths. The majority report cites data on public complaints received by the AEC, and recommended that “election participants” be required to register and observe a code of conduct. The AEC, whose bailiwick currently ends six metres from the entrance, would enforce this code within a “campaign zone” around the polling place, in which signage limits would also apply. The report argued that much of the offending behaviour “seemed to involve third parties”, and while it didn’t name names, committee chair Jerome Laxale told parliament while tabling the report of “an assault by third parties identified in submissions like the Plymouth Brethren and Advance”.
• Certainly the Plymouth Brethren angle had been divined by the committee’s Coalition members, who headlined their dissenting report “less inquiry, more hyperpartisan witch hunt” – the latter having been directed against “Australians based on their religious faith”. While acknowledging aggressive behaviour was an issue, their own volunteers having been “targets for intimidation by unions and other third party organisations on polling booths for many elections”, the Coalition members forcefully rejected the recommendations as burdensome, open to abuse and possibly unconstitutional. Also in the Coalition report was a call for the early voting period, already truncated from three weeks to two before the 2022 election, to be reduced to one week, and for the AEC to be “more strident on ensuring that people accessing pre-poll are doing so for one of the reasons prescribed in the Act”.
• The official determination of how many seats each state and territory will be entitled to at the next election, which is calculated a year into each parliamentary term, will be made later this month. Antony Green has done their work for them based on the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics population data, and concludes there will be no change from the status quo, Queensland having recorded not quite enough growth to get it over the line for a thirty-first seat. Queensland will nonetheless get a redistribution under the seven-year rule, which is now overdue after being twice delayed: first because of the election, and then because there was no point commencing the process until it was clear how many seats the state would have. Proposed boundaries were published in March for South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, final boundaries for which are expected later this month.
• Wendy Askew has brought forward the retirement she recently announced for the end of her term in mid-2028, now to take effect in a “few weeks”. This means two vacancies are now available for Tasmanian Liberal Senate seats, together with that created by Jonathan Duniam’s surprise retirement announcement last month.
One good thing, Count Binface will defiantly get his deposit back. The turnout will be something to watch too.
Omar, Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 6:57 pm:
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😆
Frednk:
Yes, obviously the PM was just expressing his desire to lay down some thick carpets with Kylie.
Good to have you back posting polls Nadia
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-08/trump-says-iran-us-ceasefire-over/106894644
Whether it means a return to all-out war remains to be seen, given Mr Trump said he would continue speaking with his negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about the next steps.
But he labelled the Iranians as “liars”, “scum” and “sick people”.
“They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over,” he said.
“It’s just a waste of time dealing with them.”
____________________
Oh so we are bored already with the World Cup now the USA is out?
B.S. Fairman, re Binface:
Cheers.
Asha says:
Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 6:59 pm
Frednk:
Yes, obviously the PM was just expressing his desire to lay down some thick carpets with Kylie.
_________________
He should be so lucky, lucky lucky lucky
@Nadia
Him is correct and I can confirm we are definitely not the same poster!
At some point I’m sure that I’ll contribute beyond just dropping in poll numbers (although, as my username suggests, I’m really just interested in the data related stuff – not the partisan stuff).
I am leaning to the Allan Government sneaking back into government but after V/Line telling people to make their way home, that small window might be closed.
Dr Fumbles McStupid @ 7:01p – he had started talking about Ukraine there for a minute, so it’s all good with me
Oil prices are now up by over 6% as Trump says ceasefire memorandum of understanding Iran is ‘over’.
Hard Being Green says:
Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 7:00 pm
Good to have you back posting polls Nadia
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Anytime H.B.G.
Bit of a poll drought atm, as WB alluded to.
Next rendezvous should be 6PM Sunday, when the Resolve poll (via TheAge/SMH) updates.
We’ll also get the NSW (Minns, not Albo) figures, and I believe we’ll be getting monthly Resolve Polls on Victoria too pre-their election. The state figures usually drop about 48 hours later.
Anyway, we’ll see what happens Sunday 6PM. They might push their poll back a week, so who knows.
No, William. There is plenty of evidence that the Israeli public overwhelmingly approves of the despicable treatment of Palestinians:
Before Bobby Sands’ election in 1981 only those imprisoned for treason were excluded from election. Very soon after his election the Representation of the People Act, 1981 was rushed through to exclude anyone jailed for more than 1 year. This prevented another hunger striker standing for the second Fermanagh and South Tyrone by-election
Fun fact: 34 prisoners were elected to the House of Commons in the 1918 general election.
Here4TheData says:
Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 7:05 pm
@Nadia
Him is correct and I can confirm we are definitely not the same poster!
At some point I’m sure that I’ll contribute beyond just dropping in poll numbers (although, as my username suggests, I’m really just interested in the data related stuff – not the partisan stuff).
=========
Go for it Here4TheData. You’ve obviously worked out roughly when the polls drop. No magic involved but thanks for locating & dropping polls. Great stuff.
As mentioned upthread, hopefully the monthly Federal Resolve Poll will drop on Sunday circa 6PM.
WB & Thomas Mutter mentioned that there may be a Demos MRP poll drop soon, so keeping an eye out for that too, but it hasn’t turned up as yet.
This one is moving right along.
Someone was dissing Russia’s manufacturing capabilities.
My interest was piqued because of my interest in war propaganda. What IS Russia’s manufacturing capability, I wondered?
I offered a comparison between Russia and Australia with Russia ranked in the top 10 and Australia between 20th and 30th.
I note in passing that, after four years of war, Russia still manufactures around three quarters of a million cars a year.
As for the war itself, it is stalemated. Neither side can impose their will on the other. Ukraine is inflicting huge damage on Russia’s oil and oil products sector. Ukraine cannot stop Russia from landing ballistic missiles anywhere and at any time it chooses.
Russia is making miniscule advances into Kostiantynivka.
The Ukraine side is excellent at itemizing enemy losses. It is totally silent on its own losses.
Observers with a yen for the truth might ask themselves why they never hear in the western MSM how many of Ukraine army’s soldiers have deserted. The official Ukraine figure is 200,000.
My view remains that the war will eventually reach a negotiated settlement.
Oakshott Country- The key word is “convicted”. Farage could be arrested before the coming by-election but it is unlikely that he would be convicted. Wheels of British justice don’t spin that fast.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/07/08/trump-declares-ceasefire-with-iran-has-ended/
Yeah, this V/Line outage is frankly catastrophic.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/v-line-passengers-to-remain-stranded-with-no-end-in-sight-20260708-p60do8.html
Did we seriously learn nothing from the big Optus outage in 2023?
Hard Being Green says:
Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 6:26 pm
….
I’m thinking KylieGate has a bit more to play out yet
No limit to the greens making fools of themselves.
No-one took the MOU at all seriously but it is worth noting, in terms of bad faith, that the US failed to deliver all of its obligations, bar one.
They did allow tankers to leave and enter the Gulf. That ended yesterday, apparently.
It is also worth noting that the US committed itself in the MOU to provisions that it was unwilling or unable to deliver because it required Netanyahu to behave in ways that he was never going to do.
FWIW, the Iranians DID stick to their side of the MOU until AFTER the US had broken its side of the MOU multiple times.
Not that any of the above really matters. What does matter is that Netanyahu and Khamenei II are genocidal monsters. Trump is mad.
What does matter is that the SoH will, at best, be operating sub-optimally for the foreseeable future.
Oil price up 10% in last 48 hours.
It is School holidays in Victoria. Therefore, there should be hundreds of school buses available. Yes, it would be not be an easy ride, but it would still be a ride.
It surprises me V/line aren’t connected to both telcos. It the default path if the link is important.
The communications minister, Anika Wells, has accused Barnaby Joyce and Angus Taylor of “going off half-cocked” by raising without evidence the prospect of China having been behind the major Telstra outage affecting millions of Australians nationwide.
Anika may be paying Barny & Angus an undeserved compliment
Michael Liebreich was in Australia a month or so ago and recorded 9 podcasts. The first one is with Darren Miller, the CEO of ARENA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBhkBTZ9lSI
Newy boy, your Saturday comment is what caught my eye.
You will also note I made reference to ‘friends ‘of the Ukraine might use nuclear weapons but for me the end result would still be a catastrophe.
As you have put it so bluntly…..”…their army (meaning Russia’s I take it?) in the Ukraine should be wiped out….Full stop.”
Do you really believe this is some kind of solution – namely mutual destruction of large parts of Eastern Europe and slabs of Russia too?
I am puzzled you think my comment was “sleazy”. What an odd description.
You lead with your chin, you are aggressive and provocative in your language supporting your position, but I think your passion gets the better of some of your reasoning.
I do not resile from my previous comment.
As I indicated, I am essentially on the same side as you are but that does not mean risk destroying Europe just to get square with Putin and his regime.
Yeah. And the rest of the world has to suffer because of the vanities of these maniacs.
Omar, Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 7:10 pm:
Omar – are you referring to Trump at Ankara? What did he say?
Asha says:
Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 6:59 pm
Frednk:
Yes, obviously the PM was just expressing his desire to lay down some thick carpets with Kylie.
If you were not familiar with the slang that is exactly how you would have to interpret it.
Sceptic says:
Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 7:47 pm
The communications minister, Anika Wells, has accused Barnaby Joyce and Angus Taylor of “going off half-cocked”
Oh dear to get the Greens in full sexual fantasy flight again?
V Line’s problems began when Jeff Kennett privatised it a few weeks before the 1999 election because he didn’t think it would matter. Baillieu and Napthine cut transport funding to ribbons, ripping away a quarter billion dollars in funding.
Meanwhile Labor has continued to upgrade the lines and remove crossings. Labor funded the Regional Fast Rail, increasing customers and helping to grow the regional areas (even though they keep voting for parties that would rip their lines up because they cost too much, or privatise them all over again).
Public transport across the country is better off with Labor. The LNP want more toll roads.
Tricot, Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 7:50 pm:
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I repeat: my posts that I quoted and linked above make it clear that I oppose any use of nukes at all by either side as a first strike. I only support Western use of nukes against Russia if Russia uses nukes first. I cannot believe you are taking me to mean anything else. If you do not accept what I am saying now about my own views on nukes, I must conclude you are not conversing with me in good faith.
As for Russian military units invading and occupying Ukraine: of course, I want every last Russian soldier in Ukraine to no longer be there under arms, one way or another. Who wouldn’t? The best way would be for Putin to order them all back to Russia. Failing that, the next best way operates on the individual level. As many commanders on the ground as possible ought to order a retreat back to Russia. Of those soldiers not so fortunately commanded, as many as possible should surrender to Ukraine. Of those who don’t, as many as possible should desert back to Russia. Of those who don’t do either, as many as possible to be injured and so go back to Russia on furlough. Of those not so lucky, I’m sorry but they cannot remain alive in Ukraine as armed hostiles. They are killing, maiming, raping, torturing, imprisoning, abducting, deporting and looting too many innocent Ukrainians for that.
And this is not about “getting square” with Putin. It is about forcing the entire Russian elite to realise that it is suicide for them to indulge their imperialist fantasies by violently attacking their peaceful, democratic, sovereign, independent neighbour. Nothing else will get through to them, sadly.
Then you should have no trouble sticking to the facts, and admitting when you’ve been taken in by a lie that I personally had no trouble recognising as such the moment you posted it here, and which was concocted with the clear intention of arousing genocidal hatred against Israeli Jews, such that I would quite reasonably come under pressure to ban a commenter for it if they posted such a thing directed at Palestinian Arabs. And to better defend yourself from falling for such rubbish, you should recognise the limitations of your determination to believe everything good about authoritarian regimes (cf. your previous comment about China) and everything bad about liberal-democracies-plus-the-US-and-Israel.
Let’s go Queensland
Bill’s take:
https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/oil-as-achilles-heel
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 7:55 pm
V Line’s problems began when Jeff Kennett privatised it a few weeks before the 1999 election because he didn’t think it would matter.
_______________________
1999. 27 years ago. That’s as far I got with your post. I didn’t bother reading anything after that sentence.
Have the Greens even said a single thing about this?
Oopsy
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Telstra informed the office of Communications Minister Anika Wells about a widespread mobile outage potentially impacting millions of Australians about two and a half hours after first detecting an issue.
https://www.nine.com.au/australia-news/telstra-network-hit-with-outage-boost-belong-and-aldi-mobile-customers-also-affected-20260708-p60dhj.html?utm_source=nine_pm&utm_medium=newsroom_newsletter&utm_term=newsroom
Newby boy
I get you.
I just don’t agree with your two-fisted approach in dealing with the issue.
I do not doubt your sincerity, but I question your death wish if push came to shove.
End of conversation other than to remind you that just because you have written stuff two to three days ago it is still open to debate.
Joyce, prospectively linking China to Telstra, delivered what we expect from Joyce. No more. No less.
And lo! Taylor blunders along.
Frednk:
Every person with more than three functioning braincells understood what “shag” meant in that context.
cucarachas will inherit the earth.
Tricot – peace right back to you. I wasn’t saying stuff I said two days ago should be memory holed. I was annoyed you verballed me without quoting or linking the post you were referring to. And you did verbal me. I oppose any side of any war launching a nuclear first strike. But I support either side threatening the other with nuclear retaliation if the other side launches nukes first. That’s the only way everyone keeps their dick in their pants, so to speak.
newy @ 7:52p
referring to the July 4 call and commentary surrounding that – please for the love of all that is good, aren’t we done with Trump brokered “peace deals” (and associated headlines)? Hand over the missiles or STFU.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-offered-over-phone-help-putin-find-deal-with-ukraine-kremlin-aide-says-2026-07-04/
U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he was cutting off trade with Spain over defense spending — reviving a long-running feud between Washington and Madrid. “I didn’t speak to Spain. Spain is a wasted cause. We don’t want to do any trade business with Spain anymore,” he told reporters ahead of a meeting with fellow NATO leaders in Ankara. “By the way, I’d like you to cut it off,” he added, appearing to address U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-says-hes-cutting-off-trade-with-spain-over-defense-spending-iran/
There should be another Resolve Political Monitor poll in the next few days.
The Melbourne Metro trains runs on VicRail owned private communication network. It has the phone numbers 0489 840 000 to 0489 849 999. I guess the country areas were too large to cover with this network.
They moved the signalling to using the mobile network because people were pinching the copper wire.
Boerwar and Bushfire Bill
So what? Australia used to make that many cars. Thailand makes more now. That doesn’t make either a superpower.
You need to distinguish between manufacturing capacity and the technical ability to develop new things. Either way, Russia has lost a lot compared to the old USSR.
Drones are a good example. At the start of the Ukraine war Russia was unable to do either. Iran started supplying them drones and the IP. Now Russia can make drones.
In terms of military production Ukraine was the main center for design and manufacture of steel, large warships, tanks, missiles and large aircraft (bombers) in Soviet days. All those capabilities are greatly reduced or gone now from Russia.
Russia has lots of minerals and an engineering workforce but less leading science. I would put its productive capacity on a par with Japan, but its innovation ability less than South Korea’s. Even during the cold war a lot of USSRs technical advances were via espionage (e.g. nuclear weapons and stealthy subs).
Is there an emoji for congenital idiot?