It’s been a particularly busy few days on the poll front, with Newspoll’s three-week cycle coinciding with YouGov’s fortnightly cycle and Essential Research’s monthly cycle and RedBridge Group thrown in for good measure. The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov parts company with the others in finding One Nation continuing to rise, at the expense of the hapless Coalition rather than Labor. Labor is up three to 29% and One Nation two to 30%, the latter a new record for the party from YouGov. The Coalition is down four to 17%, two points below its previous nadir around the time of the February leadership change, while the Greens are steady on 13%. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor is down one to 36% and steady on 47%. Albanese’s leads on preferred prime minister are out from 43-38 to 44-35 against Taylor, and from 48-41 to 49-40 against Pauline Hanson. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1502.
The Guardian reports on the monthly Essential Research poll, with which the pollster’s data feature has been updated, though its full report with all its attitudinal questions will come later today. Inclusive of a steady uncommitted result of 5%, it has Labor up a point to 30%, One Nation down two to 26% and the Greens down one to 10%. The drop for One Nation might be thought especially significant coming from a monthly series, since the BludgerTrack trend measure records them gaining two-and-a-half points over this period.
The pollster’s 2PP+ continues to be unusually strong for the Coalition, who recover a 48-46 lead with the balance undecided, after Labor gained a 48-47 lead last month – my rough measure based on 2025 election flows has Labor ahead 51.3-48.7, out from 50.6-49.4. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 51%. Contrary to other recent polling, Angus Taylor is up three on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 37%.
The Guardian report relates negative responses to various One Nation positions: 15% in favour of privatising the ABC, 11% for shutting down SBS, 20% for ending multiculturalism, 18% for withdrawing from the United Nations, 18% for revising workplace laws in favour of employers, and 25% for stopping the renewables transition and focusing on fossil fuels. Only 26% were in favour of the party’s position on banning abortion after 20 weeks, but results were somewhat more conservative than when the question was last posed in November 2024: the 72% supporting abortion being legal in some or all cases was down seven points, and the 28% holding it should be illegal in some or all cases was up seven. Fifty per cent said they were concerned about One Nation being backed by Gina Rinehart, and 45% were concerned the party would “turn Australians against each other”. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample that will have been a bit over 1000.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the biggest hit to One Nation of them all, down five-and-a-half points to 26%, with Labor up one to 28%, the Coalition up four to 21.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation on a measure based on respondent-allocated preferences is out from 51-49 to 53-47, while its leads over the Coalition are in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and unchanged at 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted last Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1639.
Sarah Schwartz is a human rights lawyer and executive director of the Jewish Council of Australia
As an Australian Jew who publicly supports Palestinian freedom, I’m targeted by my own community – and neo-Nazis
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jul/02/url-royal-commission-antisemitism-jewish-australian-supporting-palestinian-freedom-sarah-schwartz-ntwnfb
“There is something profoundly disorienting about being compared to Nazis. I understand why people reach for this language. For many Jews, the Holocaust is the deepest moral reference point. It is the vocabulary through which fear, vulnerability and collective memory are expressed. But the language directed at me is not simply an expression of grief or lateral violence. It is part of a political framework cultivated over decades: one that collapses Jewish identity into the state of Israel, recasts criticism of Israel as hostility towards Jews, and turns the Holocaust from a warning against atrocity into a test of political loyalty. Israel becomes the “persecuted collective Jew”. Its critics become antisemites.
:::
For Palestinians, the result is global silence; turning evidence of mass atrocity into a debate about permissible speech. For Jews, it flattens our identities into allegiance to a nation-state. Jews who refuse that allegiance must be cast out. My attempted public humiliation tells Jews that our place in communal and public life is conditional on political conformity.
:::
When the Holocaust is used to police Jewish identity, silence those who bear witness to atrocity, or to recast allegations of mass violence as acts of persecution against the accused, it is hollowed of any moral force.
Instead its memory should be not only about what we inherit, but what we choose to do with that inheritance.”
I admire very much those individuals of conscience who are brave enough to stick their heads up knowing full well that nasty bastards will come after them.
This goes for jewish australians and iranian australians.
In this context, I note that Peg is entirely silent on the significant number of murders being carried out in Iran at this time by the murderous and genocidal theocracy.
The question is this: Why no goose gander from the Greens? Surely the Greens can walk and chew gum at the same time?
Victoria @ #1247 Sunday, July 5th, 2026 – 8:14 pm
With any luck she’ll stay over there.
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 7:42 pm
@Zoomster
Yeah, that’s the feeling I’m getting too.
I was so done with how the Job Provider system under the Coalition worked, it put me in some dark places from 2017-2022. I even tried to go back to university to “up-skill” as was the only option to get back onto Austudy in 2018, but I wasn’t up for it, and all I got was another $30,000 added to my HECS debts when I quit the course when it proved to be too much.
Then I got put back onto those stupid courses again in 2019, which were thankfully cancelled from 2019-2021, but when they were reinstated, it was rough.
Especially when that evil Michaelia Cash did her whole routine in opening the “dob-in-a-dole-bludger” hotline.
__________________________
The system up to 2022 was pretty average but the changes in 2022 with the new providers, points system and contracts was the worst – SfMs revenge.
I had a ‘provider’ who demanded ‘proof’ of all engagements/activities that reduced ones points, even personal ones like AA meetings so no trust at all. Any decision has to be agreed by the ‘management’ and actual medical barriers were ignored without proof. A real toxic environment that was all open plan so you could listen to everyone else’s issues, no confidentiality at all.
I got so fed up with it I just got a few sick leave certificates to avoiod engagement with them. In the end it all worked out quite well. As I was already on reduced capability, Centerlink did a review as I kept submitting certificates and moved me into the disability stream, no more points, work for the dole and stupid courses.
I did have a few moments of pleasure, I turned up one time to an appointment but it had been cancelled without my knowing and ended up chatting with the manager as he thought I was from the Department or head office (I deliberately dress far to well for a client) and had a full and frank about the ‘issues’. Then a week later had another discussion
with MP offices and The Guardian who were running a few articles on the failure of the system. Suffice to say the obnoxious little jobsworths ended up looking for other opportunities.
This happened at the first couple weeks then I got a certificate and was off for a few months by the time I returned and heard about the changes being blamed on some unknown ‘client’ with a grudge causing trouble going to the media.
Goes to show thing work out sometimes, especially when you think it is all just impotent rage.
Nigel and Pauline: the marriage of true minds.
Feel like we’ve seen this before. And cue the Trump jokes not jokes about serving a fourth term in office.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/world/asia/china-xi-leadership-cai-qi.html
@Dr Fumbles McStupid at 8:24pm
Yeah, I had to resort to medical certificates as well. Thankfully they were taken seriously because I was in some pretty dark places. But they’ve at least improved since then and I’m grateful for that.
Hold up, was having your “points” reduced a good thing or a bad thing when it came to your prospects for getting a job.
Surely in any sane world, attending AA meetings is the sort of thing that should be rewarded by these kinds of systems rather than punished.
Man, reading these stories, I realise just how lucky I am to have never had to engage with Centrelink. I would have taken those ten years as a warehouse worker and shelf stacker any damn day of the week.
Kirsdarke, Fumbles, et al, I am so sorry you all had to go through that.
Nearly everyone in the last three generations of my family has been a teacher at some point, so I’m either biased or have a genetic predisposition for the job (my son is doing the fourth generation..).
I’ve mainly been a casual (and am back to that at present) but I’m really enjoying it atm.
Great job if you love interacting with people (and see students in that light).
Thanks for sharing those reality check stories about job hunting and the struggles with bureaucracy.
FWIW, over the grandchildren years I have seen many teacher’s aides in action. IMO, they do a wonderful job.
Points being removed was a Bad Thing. Lose too many and your payments could be suspended.
I had points taken off for applying for a job on the South Coast of NSW (where I regularly holiday and would move to happily) on the basis that I couldn’t be seriously contemplating moving my family that far away. The whole family basically said it would have been fine with them, but the points stayed off.
My son had points deducted for (i) applying for a job that didn’t specify any requirements but which the provider said he didn’t have the required skills for; (ii) applying for a cleaning job an hour from home, which the provider said was obviously not a serious application. When you’re being asked to apply for 20 jobs a fortnight and live in a small country town, you quickly run out of options….
We’re both teaching now, so it’s fine but it was not a good experience….
It’s probably the pronunciation!
You’ve been called plenty more than that!
Nath is a mispronounced Cent?
Say it isn’t so.
IMO that article has sanitized some dreadful truths about Xi.
The first is that Xi has destroyed the existing paths to succession by changing the rules. He is there for life. There is now no recognized and generally agreed decision making pathway to either remove or backfill Xi.
The second is that the people around him, in for example the Politburo, and from whom the next leader would normally arise, are nearly all the same age as Xi.
The third is that Xi has judicially murdered or jailed his main opponents. For example, he has sacked all three of the last three defence ministers. Two are in jail. The third is being investigated and will be extremely lucky if he is allowed to retire quietly.
Clearly, being in a line of potential succession to Xi is incredibly risky.
The fourth is that in some of the crucial committees, from which the next leader might arise, have been so reduced by sackings and the like that they are down to two or three people: Xi and a couple of yes men.
The fifth is that Xi has so much blood on his hands that he knows there are plenty of people who would gladly assassinate him if they thought they could survive the deed. Xi and the people around him inevitably live in a miasma of paranoia. Again not exactly the working conditions for the development of replacements for Xi and his gerontocrats.
Yeah, I kinda got some inspiration when I was at the zoo last month. I was waiting for the daily feeding event for some animals and a school class arrived around me on the benches, along with the teachers and their assistants directing the kids and they were so well behaved, the teachers saying “There’s other people here so be aware of them.” and it basically felt like I was back in class and actually learning things.
I even felt a sense of pride when some kids answered questions from the zookeepers correctly on the first shot. That lit up some inspiration that maybe education might be a better workplace for me than having to worry about politics when pro-science and anti-science parties get power.
Asha says:
Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 8:30 pm
I had a ‘provider’ who demanded ‘proof’ of all engagements/activities that reduced ones points, even personal ones like AA meetings
Hold up, was having your “points” reduced a good thing or a bad thing when it came to your prospects for getting a job.
Surely in any sane world, attending AA meetings is the sort of thing that should be rewarded by these kinds of systems rather than punished.
________________________
Yes that was the whole point, going to rehab support or AA reduced your points by about 20 – trouble was they wanted proof you attended, so sign in sheets or so on, I said the whole point of AA is the anonymous part. I did have my card and sponsor info but thought WTF this is hard enough to admit I go. Anyway under the old regime I had AA meetings as my work for the dole.
The points system was a great idea, provided there was trust, I was also in the Vic Gov job program another -20 points but that has the same issue, they ne3ed proof your wernt a bludger faking it.
The trouble was you would go to an appointment, say I am doing all these things, the consultant would say ‘computer says no’ and I cant approve anything without manager, so it would be another 2 weeks till the next meeting, then they ask for more info, all the time you are spamming employers with 20+ job applications
Perhaps we have reached peak RWNJ…
spr
Burnham…
Buy the rumour, sell the fact?
“The question is this: Why no goose gander from the Greens? Surely the Greens can walk and chew gum at the same time?”
Oh look, BW is lying again, must be a day that ends in y (and I know he is lying because I amonsgt others have linked to the multiple releases from the Greens on this very topic, usually with him responding how its meaningless)
I can’t recall Peg ever criticizing what is happening in Iran.
HBG ditto.
Miskal, ditto.
Now they MIGHT just once or twice said something critical of the truly monstrous, murderous and genocidal behaviour of Iran.
But nothing like massive daily grind of vitriolic savaging Israel.
Miskal is quite right to be embarrassed by this egregious behaviour by the Greens.
Oh, I have no doubts it has.
Firstly because US media reporting on foreign affairs (foreign to the US that is) is often woeful.
Secondly because Trump’s behaviour towards US historical allies, and the decisions of him and his administration have given prominence and deference to authoritarian regimes like Xi’s.
Thirdly because the US withdrawal (or more like self owned diminishment) has thrown the 80 year stable world order into chaos, allowing these regimes like Xi’s to play a more prominent role in world affairs.
Farage appears to be in a spot of bother:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-robert-jenrick-reform-george-cottrell-b3009185.html
The establishment trying to keep Labour in power. That’s a new one.
One Nation is scooping up donations from wealthy business people who have previously only donated to the Liberal Party ahead of the Victorian state election, but concerns remain about whether the challenger party’s disorganisation could put a dampener on its fundraising efforts.
Melbourne’s private property developers are leading the charge, promising huge sums to One Nation in return for advocacy on key policy areas including some of the controversial property taxes brought in by the Allan government.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/a-real-leaching-of-donors-one-nation-steals-a-march-on-liberal-party-s-blue-blood-base-20260702-p60c15.html
BW, I will link you once again to the Greens on Iran
https://greens.org.au/news/media-release/media-release-sanctions-iranian-regime
In solidarity with the Iranian diaspora in Australia, the Greens for years have called on the Australian Government to list the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation under the Criminal Code Act 1995, which the Albanese Government today commit to do.
These steps are appropriate given the reported actions of the Iranian Regime. They follow from effective action by the authorities to investigate and understand the cause of anti-semitic acts.
The Greens have also called for the government to support at the United Nations General Assembly the implementation of the recommendations of the UN Special Rapporteur on Iran and the Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances.
I have previously linked this exact same link.
So, why do you have to lie about anything to do with the Greens? Plenty of people here express their issues with parties without the need to blatantly make up stuff.
Must be the ON voter in you…
Asha says:
Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 8:33 pm
Man, reading these stories, I realise just how lucky I am to have never had to engage with Centrelink. I would have taken those ten years as a warehouse worker and shelf stacker any damn day of the week.
Kirsdarke, Fumbles, et al, I am so sorry you all had to go through that.
_____________________
Hey anything is good, until I had an unfortunate medial issue (nuff said) I was happy fixing roofs and doing the whole bro thing with power tools and my mates. One of the great things was going from professional office PS type, was made redundant, to work to outdoor physical stuff with Milwaukee ratchet gun was the fun of getting up real early, doing construction work and scaffolding then going to the pub and talking shit with your mates with fistfull of cash. It also changed a few perceptions about what people are capable of. One of the best times, that I have used in a few subsequent interviews was a moment doing a silo roof job when I was not sure if contributed enough and the response was ‘drink up, you are part of the crew’ – being accepted as part of the crew was probably the best working moment I had.
Miskal
A single link versus the sustained vitriol that we see on bludger?
You are studiously ignoring the egregious lack of balance the greens posters on bludgers have.
It is wall to wall attacks on Israel. On the murderous theocracy it is wall to wall silence.
Perhaps the founders were trying to send a message 250 years down the pipeline…
https://x.com/souljagoyteller/status/2073562071698960417
I’m possibly not really in a position to judge on this front, as I am as guilty as anyone of this, but it sure would be nice if we could spend a bit more time discussing, say, current events and polling and policy and the effects such things have on real peoples’ lives and a bit less time whinging about other Poll Bludger posters.
confessions
Yep. I agree that Trump has created a vacuum. But we should be aware that Xi and Putin were intent on destroying the world order regardless of Trump. The three of them have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.
It is just as well then, Asha, that you never make any hand-wringing comments about other posters.
Time for the sandman.
Good night, all.
BW, moving the goal posts again?
Is it that the Greens never criticise Iran?
Is it that Green supporters here never criticise Iran?
Or, are you just full of shit (I see Asha made a comment about us and your think skin couldnt handle it).
Based on a quick look at older threads, the answer is pretty clear…
Very true. Except I don’t ascribe any particular global ambition to Trump, he will simply go where the money and favour leads him in order to build personal wealth and milk the system for all he can get.
Xi, Putin and Netanyahu will never have a better friend in the White House than who they’ve found in Trump, that’s for sure.
Confessionssays:
Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 8:43 pm
Nath is a mispronounced Cent?
________________________
I’m going to be a gentleman about this for the moment.
Fumbles:
Glad to hear it.
You know, there are times when I kind of miss my days as an unskilled labourer, despite the destruction it wrought on my physical and mental health. (The insecurity and self-hatred that the job gave me is mostly gone, at least, though the physical trauma will remain with me for the rest of my life.)
There actually something very underrated about just being able to turn ones brain off and engage in mindless repetitive work for hours on end. And the customer service skills I aquired honestly did more to set me up for my current business than anything I learned at university.
Kept me damn fit too – not just the job itself, but those endless sprints to the train station and up and down the stairs of the level crossings too. (I’ve never had spectacular time management.)
These days my working life is the opposite, sitting (or lying) in front of a laptop, ending the day mentally and emotionally exhausted while barely having moved.
It hasn’t exactly been great for my ambitions to make it as a writer either, as the last thing I want to do after work these days is spend even more time on a computer, whereas I’d regularly be chomping at the bit to get on the laptop after eight hours stacking shelves and hauling milk crates around.
BW:
Indeed. Everyone should follow my good example.
(DISCLAIMER: For your own sake and that of everyone else on this board, do not do that.)
Finally. This is a positive development.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/can-t-keep-looking-the-other-way-nsw-labor-votes-for-historic-pokies-reforms-20260705-p60col.html
The pubs I frequent don’t have pokies and I never go to RSL clubs, but honestly, NSW should take a leaf out of the WA approach and confine these things to casinos only.
Fess:
LMAO!!
Most of our former Prime Ministers have been proud Kents.
@Asha
It is funny how it works out, you start one direction and end up doing something completely different. Got a much better sense of achievement doing the outdoor stuff than sitting at a desk all day on the computer. All academic now as would take either now if I could.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-ve-never-been-a-monoculture-one-group-of-australians-knows-this-20260701-p60brx.html
The thing that has always got me about the pokies is how astonishing boring they are as a form of entertaining.
I’ll happily play me some texas hold-em or lose cash on a game of pool or bet on an electoral outcome – and, while I’m not a sports guy, I can see the appeal of sportsbetting too – but just pushing a button for hours on end while bells ring and flashing lights blare in your face amidst the stench of stale booze and urine? I just don’t get it.
Re Boerwar
A marriage made in Heaven? Or maybe somewhere with a warmer climate.
Indulging in the ultimate Melbourne 80s nostalgia fest here, watching the Great Bookie Robbery minis series. I has to be from about 1986 so Harris trains, For Cortinas, XD Falcons, VC Commodores, GTS HQ and the rest Vauxhall Vivas, Toranas, Austin 1800s, Renault 12s, 2 door range rovers, W114 Mercedes and the series 1 XJ6. Fantastic locations, Jolimont Yards, North Melbourne, Richmond, probably Collingwood/Clifton hill and Altona.
And the robbers, living the high life with flash cars and yachts all with $400K each – the house the main dude is in would have need that as a deposit.
Damn I feel old…..
Edit: One thing that annoys me is the fake number plates on the cars – green garden state H reg, FFS, B and W KEG on an 80s Nissan, so fake…
Steve:
I think the poor denizens of hell have suffered enough already without having Nigel and Pauline inflicted on them.
Were I the Almighty, I would sentence Farage to an eternity of listening to Hanson’s speeches on an endless loop.
Hanson, on the other hand… considering her love of Trump, I think an eternity of being on diaper duty for the Commander in Chief would be a fitting punishment.
Fumbles:
All I know about the Great Bookie Robbery comes from the second Underbelly series, which wasn’t known for its historical accuracy (made for great TV though!), but I always thought it happened in the late 70s.
Re Asha @9:41
Yes I can see that. And going to the races can be a big day out. I’ve been to the racetrack a handful of times, not for decades. Going to a casino can be a great night out I suppose, with a tinge of adventure when it’s illegal. But pokies? I think that their appeal is that they get players into “the zone”. The bells and whistles and flashing lights are all part of the experience. Funny that the machines are always set up in dimly lit, windowless rooms or in areas well away from windows.
There are of course far better ways to get into “the zone”. Even work when it’s a project you’re passionate about. Also art, music, sport, hobbies. Also computer games – perhaps they could be used to wean people off pokies.
Pokies are evil. They should never have been legalised.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 8:21 pm
…
In this context, I note that Peg is entirely silent on the significant number of murders being carried out in Iran at this time by the murderous and genocidal theocracy.
..
What has this to do with Israel stealing Palestinian land?
Asha says:
Sunday, July 5, 2026 at 10:04 pm
Fumbles:
All I know about the Great Bookie Robbery comes from the second Underbelly series, which wasn’t known for its historical accuracy (made for great TV though!), but I always thought it happened in the late 70s.
____________________
It was in 1976 so stuff of legend, TV series was made in 1984, the underbelly series (although awesome TV, loved the Golden Mile Series as I was in NSW at that time) was a bit loose with the truth dates wise. I like the nostalgia porn from 80s Melbourne but to make is as 70s would have been beyond the budget of Oz TV.