It’s been a particularly busy few days on the poll front, with Newspoll’s three-week cycle coinciding with YouGov’s fortnightly cycle and Essential Research’s monthly cycle and RedBridge Group thrown in for good measure. The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov parts company with the others in finding One Nation continuing to rise, at the expense of the hapless Coalition rather than Labor. Labor is up three to 29% and One Nation two to 30%, the latter a new record for the party from YouGov. The Coalition is down four to 17%, two points below its previous nadir around the time of the February leadership change, while the Greens are steady on 13%. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor is down one to 36% and steady on 47%. Albanese’s leads on preferred prime minister are out from 43-38 to 44-35 against Taylor, and from 48-41 to 49-40 against Pauline Hanson. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1502.
The Guardian reports on the monthly Essential Research poll, with which the pollster’s data feature has been updated, though its full report with all its attitudinal questions will come later today. Inclusive of a steady uncommitted result of 5%, it has Labor up a point to 30%, One Nation down two to 26% and the Greens down one to 10%. The drop for One Nation might be thought especially significant coming from a monthly series, since the BludgerTrack trend measure records them gaining two-and-a-half points over this period.
The pollster’s 2PP+ continues to be unusually strong for the Coalition, who recover a 48-46 lead with the balance undecided, after Labor gained a 48-47 lead last month – my rough measure based on 2025 election flows has Labor ahead 51.3-48.7, out from 50.6-49.4. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 51%. Contrary to other recent polling, Angus Taylor is up three on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 37%.
The Guardian report relates negative responses to various One Nation positions: 15% in favour of privatising the ABC, 11% for shutting down SBS, 20% for ending multiculturalism, 18% for withdrawing from the United Nations, 18% for revising workplace laws in favour of employers, and 25% for stopping the renewables transition and focusing on fossil fuels. Only 26% were in favour of the party’s position on banning abortion after 20 weeks, but results were somewhat more conservative than when the question was last posed in November 2024: the 72% supporting abortion being legal in some or all cases was down seven points, and the 28% holding it should be illegal in some or all cases was up seven. Fifty per cent said they were concerned about One Nation being backed by Gina Rinehart, and 45% were concerned the party would “turn Australians against each other”. The poll was presumably conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample that will have been a bit over 1000.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the biggest hit to One Nation of them all, down five-and-a-half points to 26%, with Labor up one to 28%, the Coalition up four to 21.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation on a measure based on respondent-allocated preferences is out from 51-49 to 53-47, while its leads over the Coalition are in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and unchanged at 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted last Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1639.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Supreme Court rejects Trump’s attempt to limit birthright citizenship: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-nixes-trump-attempt-limit-birthright-citizenship-rcna266935
US Supreme Court upholds bans on transgender women in female school and college sports: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj40x888d9go
Nun arrested by ICE as she walked to Mass in Texas is released: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/nun-arrested-ice-walked-mass-texas-released-rcna352374
House floor is frozen after GOP holdouts vote down Johnson’s election-bill plan: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/30/house-gop-frozen-save-america-00982083
Shock New Details on Trump Sex Accuser, 13, Revealed: https://www.thedailybeast.com/shock-new-details-on-trump-sex-accuser-13-revealed/
Paxton, Talarico deadlocked at 47% in new Texas Senate race poll: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/06/30/paxton-talarico-tied-in-texas-senate-race-nyt-siena-poll/90749956007/
Supreme Court Voids Political-Party Spending Caps in GOP Win: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/supreme-court-voids-political-party-spending-caps-in-gop-win
Nigel Farage received £270,000 from gold marketer he promotes: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/30/nigel-farage-gold-direct-bullion-payment-double
Shabana Mahmood bans migrants from being housed in new-build homes: https://www.gbnews.com/politics/shabana-mahmood-bans-migrant-new-build-homes
Patient tested for suspected Ebola virus at Glasgow hospital: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czde8y03qzvo
Explosives Frequently Discovered Inside Repatriated Ukrainian Bodies: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/explosives-frequently-discovered-inside-repatriated-ukrainian-bodies-police-report-20307
Iranian clerics call for Trump’s assassination: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/30/iranian-clerics-call-for-trump-assassination/?accesscontrol=facebookchannel_open
“Putin Ordered Russian General Staff to Prepare Plans for Capturing Kyiv: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/putin-ordered-russian-general-staff-to-prepare-plans-for-capturing-kyiv-syrskyi-says-20325
Zelenskyy’s office stated that 90% of Russian missiles and drones contain Japanese parts: https://news.liga.net/en/war/news/zelenskyys-office-stated-that-90-of-russian-missiles-and-drones-contain-japanese-parts
AfD leader vows to restore German-Russian ties as she eyes chancellery: https://www.reuters.com/world/afd-leader-vows-restore-german-russian-ties-she-eyes-chancellery-2026-06-30/
Russian group hacked Quebec water treatment plant, gained access to control pumps and chlorine dosing: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/russian-group-hacked-quebec-water-080005964.html
Coalition talking points make almost no direct mention of One Nation despite the minor party surging in the polls. The document obtained by the ABC instead focuses attacks on Labor and leaves senior Liberals to devise their own responses to direct questions about Pauline Hanson and her party.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-01/coalition-avoids-direct-one-nation-messaging/106863090
A bleary good morning all. Happy financial new year.
Thanks for the lead in article William. There is a marked difference for One Nation between the YouGov and Essential and preceding national polls. Importantly for the government though, they all have Labor up, suggesting budget backlash is not as dire as financial shills alleged.
This story is also pretty relevant, showing that the budget measures on housing are already working, before some even come into effect. Nobody in politics said we need to reduce housing prices in the past two decades, but that was the case.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-01/national-property-prices-market-decline-cotality/106857980
New laws are needed to police behaviour at polling booths after Australia’s democracy came “under assault” at last year’s federal election – including from third parties such as Plymouth Brethren Christian Church members and right-wing lobby group Advance – the chair of a parliamentary inquiry has said.
The proposed new code of conduct for campaigners was among several recommendations in the interim report from the Labor-led committee reviewing the 2025 ballot, which was tabled on Tuesday afternoon.
The Coalition has dismissed the findings, accusing Labor of turning the election inquiry into a “hyper-partisan witch hunt” against members of the church.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jul/01/democracy-under-assault-from-significant-third-parties-at-2025-federal-election-parliamentary-inquiry-finds
Missing from all these reports is information about how these numbers are collected.
Can different methodologies explain the quite different results?
Do they rely upon random phone polling? If so, how does the practice of blocking unknown callers remove the ‘randomness’?
Or do they use a longitudinal technique where they reuse mostly the same voters (changing a small percentage each time)? If so, how are these people selected?
An analysis of selection process could show us why ON can be at 26% & 30% at the same time.
Short lived joy for the LNP with a bounce in Morgan followed up by a disastrous YouGov. It’s kind of strange that 2 polls a day apart can vary so much
Lots of dud rulings from SCOTUS overnight, offset in small part by the birth right one
The big 4 accounting firms rightly copping a whack for their poor behaviour. Dare I suggest they need to rebrand
The government sure is clinging to the Treasury modelling on house prices. Ambitious I think. Although it’s a good thing the overheated market is taking a hit. Well good for the country despite there being some losers
Spend your tax cuts wisely workers, $5 per week. A supermarket sandwich or flavoured milk
Dan Tehan on RN Breakfast calling Albanese a political animal of the likes he hasn’t seen since Dan Andrews lol
“We don’t want to end up like Victoria”
SHY is on after the news, tune in folks
“Russian attacks kill 13, injure 109 across Ukraine over past day”
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-13-injure-109-across-ukraine-over-past-day/
Hard Being Greensays:
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 7:57 am
Dan Tehan on RN Breakfast calling Albanese a political animal of the likes he hasn’t seen since Dan Andrews lol
“We don’t want to end up like Victoria”
_______________________
Definitely not.
If you want a belly laugh have a look at Desperate Dan Tehan as he tries to look mean during QT.
As for politician Tehan calling someone a political animal… yuk, yuk.
Trust a Greens to sleazy slag Labor with big lies?
Sure can!
Setting aside the huge increases in the lowest pay rates under the Labor Government…
The Albanese Labor Government has legislated five consecutive rounds of tax cuts and relief measures for Australian workers, directly benefiting low-income earners
Stage 3 Tax Cuts (July 2024). This reduced the lowest tax rate from 19% down to 16% and established a new 30% middle bracket, leaving low-income earners approximately $804 better off than the original legislation
Further Rate Reductions (July 2026): The lowest tax bracket rate was reduced further from 16% to 15%, providing additional ongoing relief.
Instant Tax Deduction (July 2026): Introduced an $1,000 instant tax deduction for work-related expenses without requiring receipts, specifically designed to offset employment income and simplify tax time for low-income workers.
Working Australians Tax Offset (July 2027): A new, permanent $250 tax offset will be applied automatically at tax time to all workers.
Additional Relief (July 2027): The lowest tax bracket will fall once more from 15% to 14% to offset bracket creep .
“don’t want to end up like victoria”
lol, why’s that Dan? Because it’s a corrupt shithole with bad coffee? Keep ’em coming, every little bit helps with the state election coming up mate.
‘Political animal’ is him gushing about how he wants to be like his idol when he grows up
The relationship between the CFMEU leadership and builders has always been a quid pro quo arrangement.
It is no different in other states.
What is the quid pro quo one may ask?
Deals to ensure that building projects run smoothly. Workers getting paid accordingly, and no disruptions to projects.
The end goal is that building projects run smoothly, without unnecessary delays.
The Westgate distributor project didn’t run smoothly . Why? Cos there was contaminated soil found, and a big dispute ensued.
Otherwise projects get built and sometimes ahead of schedule.
MIck Gatto has been a consultant and handling dispute resolutions for over 30 years .
If he is engaged in illegal conduct, it should not be that hard to find.
Whistleblowers providing statements based on vibes, ain’t going to cut it.
I repeat that there is a concerted effort to get rid of Jacinta Allan.
And it’s not only the Age masthead working on that.
And some here may be surprised, but many within the vic liberal party are not wanting a RC if they get into power. Why? Cos their friends are the developers.
And also they don’t want Jacinta Allan to step down. They want her to be leader at time of election, cos that is their best opportunity to win.
.
SHY well worth a listen, she doesn’t miss. Hopefully the opposition gets onboard with an inquiry into what the government has come with on gambling advertising. She’s right, they’ve squibbed it
Also right points out that the government should go after the social media algorithms to help us all rather than just trying, and failing, to ban kids
Should be an interesting day in parliament
It’s sounding pretty inevitable that there will be a royal commission into the big build. Announce it pre-election and schedule it to start after imo. Remembering it takes 2 to tango
Off to work, enjoy your day folks
More lunacy …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-01/data-centre-panned-outback-nt/106862398
Why do Australians continue to fall for these ridiculous “pie in the sky” schemes? Or is it just the ABC? The NT seems particularly prone to them, as anyone who remembers the Ord River Irrigation scheme, various failed “Food bowl of Asia” schemes, or (most recently) the ludicrous Sun Cable.
The US Supreme Court’s decision on birthright citizenship was the right one, and not even the current bench was likely to overturn it, though three justices attempted to do so – Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch. The way to change the 14th
Amendment is to do so via the required process: by either a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress or by a constitutional convention called for by two-thirds of state legislatures. Looked at in practical terms, birthright citizenship has arguably served its post-Civil War utility, but that’s not the point.
P1 I was preparing to concur with some of your data centre related complaints when I noticed you had placed the Ord river scheme in the NT and called it a failure to boot. boo.
Poor Serena, her bid to make a comeback was thwarted by Aussie up-and-comer, Maya Joint, in three. At 44, Williams should confine herself to doubles.
Political animal? They all are, both (all) sides. That’s how they got where they are, whether party leader or backbencher.
Victoriasays:
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 8:37 am
The relationship between the CFMEU leadership and builders has always been a quid pro quo arrangement.
It is no different in other states.
What is the quid pro quo one may ask?
Deals to ensure that building projects run smoothly. Workers getting paid accordingly, and no disruptions to projects.
The end goal is that building projects run smoothly, without unnecessary delays.
___________________________
And in private development developers/investors will work out how much graft is financially viable. In the Big Build you can just put it on government debt and everyone wins. Except the taxpayers.
Just another in a long line of grubby grifting pollies that infest politics all around the world.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/30/nigel-farage-gold-direct-bullion-payment-double
– SMH
Kronomex
Nigel Farage’s dreams of being PM are going up in flames. The timeline has shifted under his grifting feet.
It’s taken bloody long enough. Thanks to the crookery of the system
The US is a construct still in the process of terminal decay…
The American Civil War ended over 150 years ago, yet its reverberations continue to shape the United States in profound ways. Wounds left by the conflict—both physical and psychological—remain etched into the nation’s consciousness. Communities still grapple with the war’s unresolved issues, from cultural divides to institutional disparities. These scars are not only found in battlefields and cemeteries, but also in policies, traditions, and everyday interactions. Understanding these enduring wounds is essential to grasp why the Civil War’s legacy feels ever-present, echoing through generations and shaping America’s identity.
https://historycollection.com/echoes-of-the-past-15-civil-war-wounds-that-never-healed/
They may have had their one & only chance to resolve it in 1877..with the “failure “ of Reconstruction..
https://historycollection.com/echoes-of-the-past-15-civil-war-wounds-that-never-healed/
Dan “The Fierce” Teehan:
When Albanese becomes President of the US and has the power to make the social media giants change their ways like this, sure.
Classic Greens shit. Get in the way of something our government actually has the power to do while crapping on with pie in the sky stuff that is not within our government’s power.
Meanwhile, The Age is running a very confused hit piece that is attacking Labor for house prices going down while trying to conflate house prices going down now with an HIA study about unaffordability being at its peak… which only at the end, The Age piece acknowledges is based on data from months ago, BEFORE the tax changes and house price drops. So the usual, trying to attack Labor for house prices down AND trying to attack Labor for house prices not down enough at the same time.
The proof will be in the pudding – whether people looking to buy their first home over the next 18 months feel it is getting easier, or not.
And whether people seeing the valuatation on their house plateauing or even going down slightly throw the toys out of the pram about it, or accept that the ever-escalating Australian housing market did need a correction for the greater good.
@Maude Lynne:
The Australian Polling Council members do provide that information if you look.
For example, Essential’s methodology statement is found here:
https://essentialreport.com.au/methodology
Ideally all the pollsters would be this transparent, but yes there are some who are a bit cagier about their methods.
The Ord River Scheme was a magnificent triumph for all those who enjoy cruising on a yacht, lounging by a pool, or paddling in a canoe. Apparently it also has something to do with agriculture, although the benefits on that count are less tangible.
nath
Is unions getting better terms for members corruption or what unions are supposed to do?
nath
And please try to remember when going on with the bullshit, build cost in Victoria are lower in all states but Canberra. Why?
“When Albanese becomes President of the US and has the power to make the social media giants change their ways like this, sure.
Classic Greens shit. Get in the way of something our government actually has the power to do while crapping on with pie in the sky stuff that is not within our government’s power.”
What does this even mean?
Are you implying that Albo/the government of the day lacks the ability to at leats limit the access of trash systems?
Also amazing people defending corrupt behaviour just cause its their team…
In Earth-shattering news, there were two FIFA World Cup Tee-Emm matches overnight, and neither of them ended in a DPS*. Although Norway did succeed by the now commonplace trick of scoring in the last couple of minutes.
* Dramatic Penalty Shootout. I wonder if the use of that term is copyrighted.
Mick Gatto’s methods would not be accepted in polite society, but he is one of the reasons workers get paid well and building costs are lower in Victoria than in other states. Being able to manage projects to get results is a big big plus.
Biggest corruption scandal in the history of the state Miskal, 30 billion and rising
Electoral Matters Committee tables 2025 federal election interim report
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/About_the_House_News/Media_Releases/Electoral_Matters_Committee_tables_2025_federal_election_interim_report
The Electoral Matters Committee has today released its interim report into the 2025 federal election. The Committee Chair, Mr Jerome Laxale MP said, ‘The interim report provides a response to the assault on democracy that many witnessed at the 2025 election.”
‘In target seats, the 2025 federal election saw the established norms for conduct at polling places shattered. Across the country certain polling places were flooded with participants who shook the foundations of our established free, fair and safe electoral processes.
Polling places ceased to be models of civic cooperation, and instead saw a rise in intimidation and confrontation. Voters, seasoned campaigners, and AEC staff expressed shock at the change,’ Mr Laxale continued.
‘The Committee’s interim report makes a series of recommendations for the Government to safeguard our electoral process from this type of domestic interference. This includes measures to regulate behaviour, increase transparency and to provide for a safe environment for voters.’ Mr Laxale said.
The interim report also deals with the growth in pre-poll voting, and includes recommendations that recommend changes to authorisation requirements to ensure the public know who is funding and responsible for electoral matters.
Not all the inquiry terms of reference are addressed in this interim report and more evidence needs to be sought and considered in regards to the use of generative AI in electoral matter, the consideration of fixed and extended terms of parliament and on the size of the parliament as a whole.
The Committee will continue to hold public hearings, consider evidence, and address all terms of reference in its final report due in November 2026.
Report
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Electoral_Matters/2025federalelection/Interim_Report
frednk, first your assuming correlation, and 2nd why do I get the feeling that the majority of the extra tax payer spending ended up in the hands of a very, very, very small percentage of unionists…
And, again, this is still likely corrupt behaviour that does very little to support the broader movement
Frednk
I can say from experience, Mick Gatto has been effective in getting contractors to pay outstanding monies owing to Subbies over the years.
@Miskal:
Are you suggesting that we just ban Facebook, X, etc when inevitably they refuse to change their algorithms to suit one small country? Because that’s actually what you’re proposing. You (and SHY) are complaining about the widely circumvented child social media ban and effectively saying we need to have a widely circumvented adult social media ban instead.
While I would personally adore us starting a movement to free everyone from the grip of the big social media companies, and seeing if we can get other countries to follow, the uproar across the country from business to non-profits to regular voters would be enormous. Everyone and everything is so enmeshed with social media these days.
I cannot get any clear answer from my “whistleblower”
How can on one hand, building costs be cheaper in Victoria and yet billions defrauded.
My whistleblower and their friends hated the CFMEU leadership and considered them fascists. Albanese put them in administration and I supported this decision.
Did the Greens stooges around here shift from “how dare Labor go after the CFMEU, betrayers of unionists!” to “boo Labor not doing enough about the CFMEU, corruption bad!” when I was on holiday or something.
“Are you suggesting that we just ban Facebook, X, etc when inevitably they refuse to change their algorithms to suit one small country? Because that’s actually what you’re proposing. You (and SHY) are complaining about the widely circumvented child social media ban and effectively saying we need to have a widely circumvented adult social media ban instead.”
Ahhhh I see, so it isnt a lack of power, its a lack of political desire.
“Did the Greens stooges around here shift from “how dare Labor go after the CFMEU” to “boo Labor not doing enough about the CFMEU” when I was on holiday or something.”
Man, I seem to recall the Greens and others requesting due process; funny that…
So just to recap; Albo does have the power but your noting there would be a political cost (as opposed to your first comment), and now your attempting to pretend that the Greens argument wasnt based on due diligence, to defend from current concerns of corruption…
Cool.
He’s going to win a second landslide?
Miskalsays:
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 10:05 am
“Are you suggesting that we just ban Facebook, X, etc when inevitably they refuse to change their algorithms to suit one small country? Because that’s actually what you’re proposing. You (and SHY) are complaining about the widely circumvented child social media ban and effectively saying we need to have a widely circumvented adult social media ban instead.”
Ahhhh I see, so it isnt a lack of power, its a lack of political desire.
___________
The power to do something that is “widely circumvented” seems like a fairly ineffectual power to me.
I think there’s a good chance that Labor’s recent recovery is partly because of all of these hysterical reports about house prices plunging.
That… That was the point of the reforms, you nitwits.
Best we just give up and bow down before the Epstein class then. FMD we aren’t just one small country we are clearly one very small country with no ambition that is deeply deeply dumb.
If there is anyone one interested perhaps pick up Sarah Wynn-Wiiliams book ‘Careless People’ just to begin the threat assessment so we know what we are capitulating to. Don’t get me started on what capitulation to Musk means for Australia.
Have a great day!
The Ord River Scheme has been consistently successful in transferring taxpayer dollars to the private sector and at damaging biodiversity.
However, it has now moved beyond that.
In its early years it was dogged by a lack of the agronomic knowledge, infrastructure and market access needed to make it work.
Most of the early movers went broke.
It is now, from an ag production profitability POV, spectacularly successful.
Land plus water in the Ord makes the per hectare price of Ord land now some of the most expensive ag land in Australia.
Some Cartoons
Rowe
Wilcox
Pope
Katauskas
Leahy from a few months ago
Golding
Christopher Downes The Mercury
“A plan to fence off part of a popular South Hobart park for dogs has been scrapped, after most locals who took part in a council consultation opposed it.”
Rod Emmerson NZ Herald
Miskal says:
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 9:49 am
Also amazing people defending corrupt behaviour just cause its their team…
Why are the accusation of corruption just vibes?
Why are Victorian build costs lower than other states?
Is unions going for higher benefits corruption, or what unions do?
Why shouldn’t workers share the benefits of industrial peace?