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Click here for full display of Stafford by-election results
1.00am. The ECQ uniquely publishes preference flow data by candidate on the night, from which we learn that 86.4% of Greens votes favoured Labor over the LNP despite the lack of an active recommendation on their how-to-vote card. Labor got 81.6% of preferences from Liam Parry of the unregistered Queensland Socialists; 60.2% from Legalise Cannabis; 24.4% from Family First; 62.7% from Animal Justice; 36.5% from independent Damian Smart; and 33.6% from Libertarians.
10.56pm. I’ve finally fixed what was screwing up my probabilities, which were essentially behaving as if only a few hundred votes had been counted. So it is no longer countenancing the possibility of a Greens win, which was obviously never on the cards, and getting towards calling it for Labor without going all the way, as I believe is appropriate.
10.40pm. With little further ado, its TCP results are now in, and they added only 181 to the Labor lead, though at 768 votes it’s almost certainly enough.
10.30pm. At long last, the Chermside South pre-poll has reported its 6833 primary votes, which have both major parties higher and the Greens lower. If the preferences flow as they have been elsewhere, they should add about 300 votes to a Labor TCP lead that’s currently at 587, which should settle the deal for them.
9.21pm. I don’t have all the data on this I would like, but I would roughly guess that there will be about 3000 late-arriving postal and the LNP will make up about 400 to 500 votes on them. The only other category of vote outstanding after Chermside South pre-poll is in will be in-person declaration votes, which favoured Labor 267-138 in 2024.
9.21pm. The TCP count has caught up with the primary vote count, and Labor has a seemingly handy 587-vote lead. However, neither result has reported from the Chermside South pre-poll, which Labor won 54-46 in 2024 compared with an overall result of 55.3-46.7. If Labor can hold their ground there, they can probably be favoured to hold out against the late-arriving postals.
9.11pm. The Stafford pre-poll has reported its TCP result and it’s pushed Labor to a 121-vote lead, though they have in fact gone backwards slightly on my projection, which has them winning 50.4-49.6.
9.07pm. The LNP has a 17-vote lead on the TCP count, with three election day booths plus the Stafford pre-poll only having reported the primary vote. Those booths are unlikely to change the TCP much when they report. The big question is whether Labor does well enough on the Chermside pre-poll when it reports to give them a buffer sufficient to hold out against late-arriving postals, which will assuredly favour the LNP.
8.25pm. I should also note that I rolled the Brisbane CBD pre-poll booth, which is not in operation at this by-election, into the Stafford pre-poll result for purposes of historical comparison, which was a) a bit inelegant, and b) gave that booth a baseline for comparison that was stronger for Labor than it should have been, since they did well on the Brisbane CBD result. This means the swings from the booth are a bit better for Labor than the results just cited, and gives them hope for a strong pre-poll dynamic that will carry over to the Chermside pre-poll when it reports. On the other hand, Labor won absents 57-43 in 2024 compared with 55-45 overall and there will be none of those this time, an anomaly my system doesn’t factor in. So swings and roundabouts, in other words.
8.18pm. The Stafford pre-poll booth, with 6254 votes, has gone as Labor might have hoped, with Labor down 7.5% compared with 10.8% on election day booths, and the LNP up 1.9% compared with 3.6%. Which at the very least keeps them in the race.
8.05pm. The postals are now in on TCP, and they have indeed pushed the LNP to a quite handy 52.7-47.3 lead that the remaining election day booths are unlikely to change much. My system is likely flattering Labor a little because they did well at the 2024 election on absents and the Brisbane CBD booth, which aren’t in play this time. They can still win if they do well on pre-polls, which may not report until later in the evening, but you would rather be the LNP at this stage.
7.52pm. 3656 postals have just unloaded, and they have swung more gently than most of the rest of the votes so far (Labor down 5.6%, LNP up 4.8%), such that my system now has it neck and neck. They are still strong for the LNP in absolute terms though, as postals usually are, so they may have the effect of pushing the LNP into the lead on the TCP count (on which they continue to trail) when they report their TCP result.
7.39pm. Twelve of 14 election day booths are now in, and all you can say with confidence is that everything is riding on the pre-poll booths, which may not report for some time.
7.38pm. TCP blockage cleared, and now my system is projecting preference flows off an actual TCP count, Labor is getting 70% of them rather than 67%. That’s far from decisive, but it slightly moves the needle in their favour.
7.34pm. The Grange booth was one of Labor’s less bad results. Touch wood, the TCP results blockage should be fixed in the next update.
7.30pm. Actually, it looks like there are TCP results but my system is failing to read them. Looking into it.
7.27pm. The Stafford Heights booth is slightly better for Labor than its performance generally so far. The LNP is still slightly favoured, but the uncertainties noted in my 7:17pm update remain. Still nothing on TCP — my estimates are giving Labor 80% of Greens preferences, which is less than I’d normally have because of their open HTV card.
7.24pm. Chermside East is a bit better for Labor than the other two Chermside booths, but everything in the previous update’s assessment still stands. Still nothing on the TCP count.
7.17pm. Chermside West booth almost as bad for Labor as nearby Chermside South. Labor’s hopes are for a better flow of preferences than I’m estimating, a stronger dynamic in booths nearer the city that are yet to report, and a better trend on pre-polls.
7.12pm. The large Kedron West booth is less bad for Labor than Chermside South, but still bad enough — probably enough for them to lose narrowly if it proved representative, and certainly not good enough to get them back ahead on the projection. A lot depends on preference flows though, and there is still nothing on TCP.
7.06pm. Bad result for Labor from Chermside South booth gives the LNP a projected lead. A lot depends here though on the accuracy of my preference estimates, there still being no TCP results.
7.00pm. The first actual booth to report is Stafford West, and it’s living up to suggestions of a tight result: Labor down a dangerous 8.5%, but LNP only up 1.8%. Still nothing on the TCP count.
6.49pm. Three results in on the primary, none of them from static booths — telephone voting, pre-poll telephone voting and mobile voting. Consistent with a close result, though I’m projecting a narrow Labor lead. This is based on preferences estimates though, in the absence of any numbers on the TCP count.
6.37pm. Another minor result, 308 votes from Telephone Voting, is better for Labor, the LNP swing being only about 4%. My system has been a bit slow to update so far due to bugs, but I should get them sorted shortly.
6.30pm. The Mobile Polling booth result came through promptly, with only 106 formal votes, but they’re encouraging for the LNP as far as they go with a 12.7% increase on their primary vote and little change on Labor’s.
6pm. Polls have closed for Queensland’s Stafford state by-election, first results of which are likely to come through in about three-quarters of an hour. For what it’s worth, a Courier-Mail straw poll of 150 voters conducted at booths this morning found 43.3% saying they had voted LNP and 32.7% Labor, which would point to an LNP win if accurate, though the margin of error would have been 8% even allowing for a genuinely random sample.
the votes have landed…
7084 from Chermside EVC
Omar Comin’says:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 10:14 pm
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Have there been any changes to abortion laws since the Liberals were elected ?
A pretty easy question.
Yes or No.
33% Labor 12.8% Green 40.2% LNP on primary
Aaand boom. A 768 vote margin won’t get flipped by postal votes – game over.
The Chermside South votes should add at least 250 to Labor’s current 587-vote TCP lead, which you’d think would be enough.
We’re done. “Final for the night.”
https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/Stafford2026/stafford/preliminary
Leading Candidate – RICHMOND, Luke (ALP).
Indicative Preference Count (TCP)
30960 formal votes
RICHMOND, Luke (ALP) – 15864 votes – 51.24%
HAMMOND, Fiona (LNP) – 15096 votes – 48.76%
TM yes, not sure if you’ve seen the crucifix scene in the extended version of The Exorcist but I understand that is now the law in QLD.
There you go — they only added 181, but still, 768 is enough at this stage of the game.
Thoughts on the reasons for the swing against the ALP and towards the government in a by-election,
Animal justice preferences not flowing strongly to labor is a surprise. Any particular Queensland issues at play here.
I suspect too many bongs prior to voting.
@TheWombat
From my boots on the ground point of view, a combination of incredibly favourable media coverage which has tied into a general bullishness around Queensland as housing prices rise and there’s more attention with the Olympics and other things like that, Crisafulli being sensible and pretty well performing and trying to emulate the LNP council in Brisbane, and just random factors like the abortion thing boosting numbers for Labor at that last election. I don’t think it’s an indictment on Labor and I don’t think changing leader would have much of a result. This is just the state of play
Queenslanders don’t like to have a federal and state government of the same party
Total postals counted today- 3730.
Total postal votes returned and accepted (up until 2 days ago) – 3728.
https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/election-events/stafford-state-by-election (spreadsheet on the right hand column).
LNP did well as Fiona Hammond was a local councillor for 15 years.
The Wombatsays:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 10:41 pm
Thoughts on the reasons for the swing against the ALP and towards the government in a by-election,
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No one can give me a straight answer on any recent changes to abortion laws, so I’m going with payback due to their false scare campaign at the election.
Looks like the two big pre-poll centres recorded a much smaller swing against Labor than booths did on polling day. That was the difference.
Well then, looks like it’s going to be a narrow Labor hold, but it really shouldn’t be if Steven Miles was a realistic go for the 2028 election.
Yes, he pulled it off as best as he could in October 2024 as Premier, holding all he could in Brisbane, but for Queensland Labor to have a chance of winning, there needs to be a change in leadership. And they’re actually pretty good at that when changes need to be made. Back in 2015 pretty much nobody thought that Labor would win the January election, but they did, and Campbell Newman was turfed out in less than three years.
Anyway, if Miles can barely hold on to electorates like Stafford, then they really do need a new leader. Especially since he’s had his first shot, he led Queensland Labor in October 2024 and lost, I don’t think circumstances have changed enough for him to win 2028 from here.
Taylormade
The actual answer to your question is Crisafulli did an unprecedented and incredibly deft play on putting forward a vote to ban all debate on abortion during the term, which he did straight away and without any chance for constituent blowback. It was very smart and deserves credit politically speaking, but it was absolutely not predictable and I’m not sure anything like it has been done before. The fact that happened doesn’t quite make the whole thing a scare campaign. But you are right, there have been no changes and I don’t expect there to be this term.
The Wombat says:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 10:41 pm
Thoughts on the reasons for the swing against the ALP and towards the government in a by-election,
中华人民共和国
Jimmy Sullivan (Labor’s previous candidate) would have benefited from a “Sophomore Surge” to a certain extent previously. Jimmy’s father, Terry, was the State MP for this area for about 16 years so his name was well known.
I do believe the LNP candidate was a former Brisbane City Councillor but I’m not 100% sure as I’ve been away too long.
As noted Queenslanders usually like to “share” power between the Canberra and Brisbane.
Crisafulli should be retuned next election, IMHO, though the impact of One Nation on his vote remains to be seen.
Taylor the “scare campaign” was based on the fact the LNP branches are full of right wing anti abortion evangelicals and prominent LNP front benchers are on record as being anti abortion champ.
Vensays:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 9:51 pm
Hopefully QLD Labor survives. QLD Labor needs a female leader.
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What an odd thing to say.
Qld Labor has had female leaders for 17 of the last 19 years.
Anna Bligh and Annastacia Palaszczuk were two of the worst leaders Qld Labor has ever had.
Very deficient in the ethics and integrity departments.
Why do you think Qld Labor needs another specifically female leader now?
I would have thought the attributes we are looking for are not gender dependent.
Martin d
Scrutineering in inner city Sydney, my impression is that AJ goes about 50/ 50 ALP / Lib. Perhaps because NSW Labor is NOT planning to abolish greyhound racing?
Labor got 62.7% of Animal Justice preferences, which is almost identical to the 62.1% they got in Queensland (out of four seats they contested) at the federal election. They got 60.2% of Legalise Cannabis preferences, compare with 65.6% across five Queensland contested federally.
AJ and to a lesser extent LC has always given me a vibe that regular supporters of one of the majors but are taking the opportunity to be a single issue voter because we have preferential voting. An LC voter could easily be a #1 LC #2 Libertarian #3 Liberal #4 Greens #5 Labor.
It’s kind of strange that people expect party primary votes to hold up when other parties run, their vote needs to come from somewhere
Of course the big piece of the puzzle missing here is One Nation. Will they run in all seats at the next election and what impact will they have?
LC and AJ preference numbers looked to have reverted to close to the norm according to William after being down a bit earlier in the night. More should be made of the 40% that goes to the LNP
Greens vote down a little but as above, to be expected with LC, AJ and Party all running
Overall, a reasonable result imo
Let’s go Delta
On this result the LNP will definitely win the next election perhaps picking up a few seq seats. So far Mr Crisafulli has been a benign presence, he hasn’t given Labor much to work with and of course the right wing media has ceased its daily criticism of the government ( if someone cut themselves shaving it was Labor’s fault). He promised a low impact government with no public servants sacked and ( so far) no changes to abortion laws and kept these promises. The storm clouds though are gathering in the regions. Labor’s only real hope is that one nation start splitting the regional vote. Crime is still an issue also regional gripes about the south east getting all the lollies and one nation will propose extreme measures. If they become a threat I can see some real chaos on the horizon although I think Mr Crisifulli will deal with it in a more intelligent way than Angus has done. As Upnorth says the impact of one nation remains to be seen. Brisbane which is more than half Qlds population is a different country to the far north or as I call it “Far Q”. As some I’ve talked to in the north say ,Qld starts at Bundaberg.
brucemainstreamsays:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 11:15 pm
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Thanks for the explanation Bruce.
I was busy last night and only just caught up with this.
It looks to me like both sides of politics can feel that they’ve done well out of this by-election.
Now ain’t that sweet?!
PS: Of course it helps when the elephant in the room wasn’t actually in the room on this occasion.
Antony Green’s Election Blog
2026 – Stafford By-election – Result Commentary
https://antonygreen.com.au/2026-stafford-by-election-result-commentary/
Possum had a comment thread last night on the by-election.
https://bsky.app/profile/pollytics.bsky.social/post/3mlxpclzdfo26
Popped in to look at the Stafford by-election result in Qld. Surprised it’s so close – it’s been moving culturally to be more like Clayfield for the last 15 years. Labor held on previously because of campaign resources deployed, King Canute like holding back the tide /n
It’s naturally a 54/46 to the LNP seat about now, where the LNP should have primaries in the mid 40’s, the ALP around 30 and the Greens in the high teens. Labor looks to have a primary swing of nearly 9% against it, the LNP picked up only 2 and a bit and the Greens went backwards 3!
This is BlueSky and all One Nation votes are racism etc – this is the same electoral outcome happening without PHON being in the field. Majors down or down from where they should be, Greens failing to pick up pissed off voters (going backwards!) and the ultra-minors absorbing the major party exodus