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Click here for full display of Stafford by-election results
1.00am. The ECQ uniquely publishes preference flow data by candidate on the night, from which we learn that 86.4% of Greens votes favoured Labor over the LNP despite the lack of an active recommendation on their how-to-vote card. Labor got 81.6% of preferences from Liam Parry of the unregistered Queensland Socialists; 60.2% from Legalise Cannabis; 24.4% from Family First; 62.7% from Animal Justice; 36.5% from independent Damian Smart; and 33.6% from Libertarians.
10.56pm. I’ve finally fixed what was screwing up my probabilities, which were essentially behaving as if only a few hundred votes had been counted. So it is no longer countenancing the possibility of a Greens win, which was obviously never on the cards, and getting towards calling it for Labor without going all the way, as I believe is appropriate.
10.40pm. With little further ado, its TCP results are now in, and they added only 181 to the Labor lead, though at 768 votes it’s almost certainly enough.
10.30pm. At long last, the Chermside South pre-poll has reported its 6833 primary votes, which have both major parties higher and the Greens lower. If the preferences flow as they have been elsewhere, they should add about 300 votes to a Labor TCP lead that’s currently at 587, which should settle the deal for them.
9.21pm. I don’t have all the data on this I would like, but I would roughly guess that there will be about 3000 late-arriving postal and the LNP will make up about 400 to 500 votes on them. The only other category of vote outstanding after Chermside South pre-poll is in will be in-person declaration votes, which favoured Labor 267-138 in 2024.
9.21pm. The TCP count has caught up with the primary vote count, and Labor has a seemingly handy 587-vote lead. However, neither result has reported from the Chermside South pre-poll, which Labor won 54-46 in 2024 compared with an overall result of 55.3-46.7. If Labor can hold their ground there, they can probably be favoured to hold out against the late-arriving postals.
9.11pm. The Stafford pre-poll has reported its TCP result and it’s pushed Labor to a 121-vote lead, though they have in fact gone backwards slightly on my projection, which has them winning 50.4-49.6.
9.07pm. The LNP has a 17-vote lead on the TCP count, with three election day booths plus the Stafford pre-poll only having reported the primary vote. Those booths are unlikely to change the TCP much when they report. The big question is whether Labor does well enough on the Chermside pre-poll when it reports to give them a buffer sufficient to hold out against late-arriving postals, which will assuredly favour the LNP.
8.25pm. I should also note that I rolled the Brisbane CBD pre-poll booth, which is not in operation at this by-election, into the Stafford pre-poll result for purposes of historical comparison, which was a) a bit inelegant, and b) gave that booth a baseline for comparison that was stronger for Labor than it should have been, since they did well on the Brisbane CBD result. This means the swings from the booth are a bit better for Labor than the results just cited, and gives them hope for a strong pre-poll dynamic that will carry over to the Chermside pre-poll when it reports. On the other hand, Labor won absents 57-43 in 2024 compared with 55-45 overall and there will be none of those this time, an anomaly my system doesn’t factor in. So swings and roundabouts, in other words.
8.18pm. The Stafford pre-poll booth, with 6254 votes, has gone as Labor might have hoped, with Labor down 7.5% compared with 10.8% on election day booths, and the LNP up 1.9% compared with 3.6%. Which at the very least keeps them in the race.
8.05pm. The postals are now in on TCP, and they have indeed pushed the LNP to a quite handy 52.7-47.3 lead that the remaining election day booths are unlikely to change much. My system is likely flattering Labor a little because they did well at the 2024 election on absents and the Brisbane CBD booth, which aren’t in play this time. They can still win if they do well on pre-polls, which may not report until later in the evening, but you would rather be the LNP at this stage.
7.52pm. 3656 postals have just unloaded, and they have swung more gently than most of the rest of the votes so far (Labor down 5.6%, LNP up 4.8%), such that my system now has it neck and neck. They are still strong for the LNP in absolute terms though, as postals usually are, so they may have the effect of pushing the LNP into the lead on the TCP count (on which they continue to trail) when they report their TCP result.
7.39pm. Twelve of 14 election day booths are now in, and all you can say with confidence is that everything is riding on the pre-poll booths, which may not report for some time.
7.38pm. TCP blockage cleared, and now my system is projecting preference flows off an actual TCP count, Labor is getting 70% of them rather than 67%. That’s far from decisive, but it slightly moves the needle in their favour.
7.34pm. The Grange booth was one of Labor’s less bad results. Touch wood, the TCP results blockage should be fixed in the next update.
7.30pm. Actually, it looks like there are TCP results but my system is failing to read them. Looking into it.
7.27pm. The Stafford Heights booth is slightly better for Labor than its performance generally so far. The LNP is still slightly favoured, but the uncertainties noted in my 7:17pm update remain. Still nothing on TCP — my estimates are giving Labor 80% of Greens preferences, which is less than I’d normally have because of their open HTV card.
7.24pm. Chermside East is a bit better for Labor than the other two Chermside booths, but everything in the previous update’s assessment still stands. Still nothing on the TCP count.
7.17pm. Chermside West booth almost as bad for Labor as nearby Chermside South. Labor’s hopes are for a better flow of preferences than I’m estimating, a stronger dynamic in booths nearer the city that are yet to report, and a better trend on pre-polls.
7.12pm. The large Kedron West booth is less bad for Labor than Chermside South, but still bad enough — probably enough for them to lose narrowly if it proved representative, and certainly not good enough to get them back ahead on the projection. A lot depends on preference flows though, and there is still nothing on TCP.
7.06pm. Bad result for Labor from Chermside South booth gives the LNP a projected lead. A lot depends here though on the accuracy of my preference estimates, there still being no TCP results.
7.00pm. The first actual booth to report is Stafford West, and it’s living up to suggestions of a tight result: Labor down a dangerous 8.5%, but LNP only up 1.8%. Still nothing on the TCP count.
6.49pm. Three results in on the primary, none of them from static booths — telephone voting, pre-poll telephone voting and mobile voting. Consistent with a close result, though I’m projecting a narrow Labor lead. This is based on preferences estimates though, in the absence of any numbers on the TCP count.
6.37pm. Another minor result, 308 votes from Telephone Voting, is better for Labor, the LNP swing being only about 4%. My system has been a bit slow to update so far due to bugs, but I should get them sorted shortly.
6.30pm. The Mobile Polling booth result came through promptly, with only 106 formal votes, but they’re encouraging for the LNP as far as they go with a 12.7% increase on their primary vote and little change on Labor’s.
6pm. Polls have closed for Queensland’s Stafford state by-election, first results of which are likely to come through in about three-quarters of an hour. For what it’s worth, a Courier-Mail straw poll of 150 voters conducted at booths this morning found 43.3% saying they had voted LNP and 32.7% Labor, which would point to an LNP win if accurate, though the margin of error would have been 8% even allowing for a genuinely random sample.
Is this by election televised anywhere ?
Thks WB for the numbers.
Kirs, from previous thread.
Max Chandler-Mather was involved in the preferences issue.
From his point of view, he can’t lose.
If Labor lose, the headlines tomorrow will not be about the Greens preferencing arrangement, it will be about “Get Miles”. Max know’s this.
Regardless, I still think Labor will hang on…just.
We’ll find out in 45 minutes or so when numbers come through.
@nadia
I’m getting the vibe that Max Chandler-Mather is to the Greens in a similar way as Tony Abbott is to the Liberals.
So entitled, so resentful to the voters that they rejected him, so wanting revenge and relevance in the future that it consumes him.
Nadia: if the good old MCM was involved it’s sure to a Labor victory
Dan Thomas says:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 5:59 pm
Is this by election televised anywhere ?
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Don’t believe so. WB will keep the thread intro updated, so we’ll do this one the old fashioned way.
It’s a fairly minor by-election and SEQ is hosting magic roundfor the NRL this weekend, which is probably of more interest to people.
QEC website here:
https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/Stafford2026/stafford/preliminary
K – The hatred between the two men dates back to this exchange in June 2023.
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gX0H054ML0
Wow, it’s a 9 way tie at the moment!
I’m going to be interested to see how Legalise Weed do in comparison to the Greens.
It would be good if this is wrapped up by around 9pm, I want an early night so I can be up at 5am tomorrow
Nadia – I agree, I’m not convinced that MCM cares who wins as long as he gets a piece of the cake
@nadia
Yes, I remember that moment.
The top youtube comment summarises it nicely.
First votes in, looks like a hospital booth or similar, 111 votes only, LNP 64%
Princeplanet says:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 6:08 pm
Nadia: if the good old MCM was involved it’s sure to a Labor victory
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Prince,
I’m only going by the “AI Overview”.
To quote…
“The Greens’ decision to run an open ticket in Stafford—masterminded by federal MP Max Chandler-Mather—advises voters to place the Greens candidate first and number every other box, rather than directing preferences to Labor.
There was also some “facebook carry-on” here…
Link: https://www.facebook.com/NorthLakesNews/posts/the-greens-decision-to-run-an-open-ticket-without-preferencing-labor-has-sparked/1648118767316126/
Another Green politician in Brisbane – Jonathan Sriranganathan – was not in agreement with the MCM decision.
Regardless, we’ll see what the count turns up. As someone posted on the previous thread, the Greens voters are generally decent types who are more likely to put Labor ahead of the LNP when it comes to the business end of their ballot paper.
It was ‘Mobile Polling’
Kirsdarke says:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 6:21 pm
@nadia
Yes, I remember that moment.
The top youtube comment summarises it nicely.
Imagine the guy who you’re arguing against brought your homework for you.
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The Labor v Greens stuff in Brisbane is a bit bitchy. Doesn’t get much coverage outside of Brisbane or on this site, but trust me, the two parties hate each others guts. All dates back to the loss of the Green’s Fed seats last year.
MCM clearly wants his seat back next Fed election.
I think the AI may be a little out of date, unfortunately
“by federal MP Max Chandler-Mather”
Max Loudmouth Blabber should quit pretending and join the Liberal Party full time.
Gosh, usually the first booth is something “west of whoop whoop”, but tonight we have a “hospital booth” to get things going.
Edit:
* LNP 64.15%
* ALP 32.08%
* Family First 1.89%
* Greens 0.94%
5 Informal votes already – what, with a nurse standing over you as you fill the ballot out!
I don’t believe Max Chandler Mather is anything like Tony Abbott. Abbott was and appears to be stuck in the long past heyday of the Liberal Party in the Menzies era. Max Chandler Mather is focused on seeing a better, fairer, united and prosperous future for ALL Australians – unlike the ALP and the Liberals, Nationals and not forgetting One Nation party. Max is a highly intelligent and articulate speaker. With respect to the latter, when Max was the Greens MP for Griffith, he was by far the best speaker in the House of Representatives and definitely intimidated Anthony Albanese big time. Max recently took up the role of The Green Institute – the Australian Greens think tank on policy and strategy. Sooner or later I think Max will return to federal Parliament and will have a significant role in the advance of the Greens across Australia.
I still go by what I said earlier that most Greens voters are good people that just want to see the world get better, which is why MC-M’s bitchy little scheme here won’t work out for him.
Like, what Greens voter would vote 1 Greens, 2 LNP, 3 Labor in these days? Especially with the LNP trying to kick-start the Coal industry into 150% production? Only the cynical Jill Stein types that think it would be a good thing to move votes from Labor to the LNP in order to make everything worse for most people with their accelerationist bullshit while they’re happy in their mansions and ivory towers.
Brave move defending Max on here Robert, he has a special skill in driving the rusted ons a little crazy lol
What is ‘Mobile polling ‘?
I’m sure that most supporters of Tony Abbott speak the same way of him as Robert does of MC-M.
Robert – “Max is a highly intelligent and articulate speaker.”
Most politicians are- articulate at least, intelligence is another matter entirely.
greens 17% on the teleconference
Ven Mobile Polling is aged care facilities, hospitals and the like
The Two Mouth Almighties have a lot in common: shouters, look-at-moi, NIMBIES and Labor haters but they do have their differences.
Abbott loathes the CFMEU, for one. Max was going to fix Brisbane Airport noise for another.
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 6:17 pm
“I’m going to be interested to see how Legalise Weed do in comparison to the Greens.”
Aren’t they the same thing?
Cannibals beat the Greens in Farrer, didn’t they?
Max Chandler Mather wants a better future.. unless you’re a member of the working class wanting the Greens Political Party to support affordable housing in Brisbane, in which case it’s no way, get fucked, fuck off.
Or you’re a member of the working class wanting the Greens Political Party to support Labor’s affordable housing initiatives in the previous Parliament, in which case it’s well, you get the idea.
Or you’re in the Stafford division wanting the Greens Political Party to oppose the atrocious LNP State Government of Queensland, in which case..
Stop the count, Labor 51% 2PP win.
“Cannibals beat the Greens in Farrer, didn’t they?”
I’ve not heard anything about the viewpoint of LC regarding eating humans.
LNP 43.76%
ALP 31.50%
GRN 14.8%
QLD Socialist candidate a bit of a flop. But early days as only 484 votes in.
ie: bugger all.
I quite like this presentation of first preference votes – https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/Stafford2026/stafford/preliminary
I find the “Unofficial preliminary count” title somewhat amusing / intruiging. I appreciate the intent of it. Then “Unofficial indicative count”. “Official” follows.
https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/how-to-vote/voting-systems
“First-past-the-post voting” tab.
“You’ll mark the box next to the required number of candidates of your choice.”
I can’t think of any off the top of my head but do any other Australian elections use FPTP?
I wonder what / any impact this has on formality in any other QLD election. There was a presenter to the Federal JSCEM enquiry recently who was puzzled about some of his QLD informal vote research findings. I wonder if the QLD existence of FPTP could be a factor.
Not many socialists in aged care Nadia
Never have so many waited for so few.
HBG/Ghost/Kirs,
What do you reckon?
It’s got the sniff of an LNP pick up.
You people hate Max for getting an extra $3B for social/community housing, which upset Albo. You’re all weird.
Abbot and MMW just don’t get it. Their electors were right.
Stafford west booth big swing to labor on primary? edit : from sorry
LNP 38.28%
ALP 31.29%
GRN 15.58% – so much for the BS Courier Mail poll the other week
QLD Socialists 3.73%
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 7:02 pm
You people hate Max for getting an extra $3B for social/community housing, which upset Albo. You’re all weird.
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I don’t dislike Max Chandler-Mather.
I think he’ll re-enter Federal Parliament again, probably next election.
Calling this for Labor.
LEAVE MILES ALONE !
Well, nothing to say at the moment since there’s no 2pp results yet.
I will have things to say if the LNP wins through weakened Greens preferences though.
Nothing is ever Labor’s fault.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 7:05 pm
Calling this for Labor.
LEAVE MILES ALONE !
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9.1% counted. 10% is the usual threshold to call an election (or election trend)
WB has got it at 53-47, in the LNP favour.
WB – are you calling it?
it’s looking a bit dire for labor. Some of the primary swings per booth look real bad so far. early days though.
Oh, and also if Labor loses this then that’s curtains for Steve Miles in my books, there’s no way he can carry on as leader if Stafford flips on his watch.
I think Labor is in trouble based on the early results Nadia
Although they, and the Greens, should do better in the South of the seat
I would think LNP need 45% first preference due to Greens, LC and Independent preferences.
End of Steven Miles’s leadership, you’d think!
The swings aren’t adding up yet…Early results showing swings against Labor and the Greens, but not all showing up for LNP…In theory there is 6.3% sitting in Cannabis and Parry preferences that is likely for Labor
Blackwood –
Definitely too early, but not looking great.