The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor steady on 31%, the Coalition steady on 21%, One Nation down two to 24% and the Greens up one to 13%, with no two-party preferred provided. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 57%, while Angus Taylor is down two to 33% and up four to 46%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 44-36 to 46-37. Respondents were asked which of various revenue-raising measures would be acceptable, with a higher petroleum resources rent tax leading on 42% and increased income tax on individuals a distant last on 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1235.
The latest monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers has Labor up three to 32%, the Coalition up one to 23%, One Nation down two to 22% and the Greens steady on 12%. The leader ratings are at odds with Newspoll in finding Angus Taylor up six on approval (or to be precise, very good or good performance in recent weeks), while keeping steady on 22% disapproval as respondents move out of the uncommitted column. Anthony Albanese is up one to 37% and steady on 52%, and retains a bare lead of 33-32 on preferred prime minister, in from 35-31. The poll was conducted Monday to Saturday from a sample of 1807.
Spectre Strategy, which has published two previous federal polls since the last election, has a result with Labor on 28%, the Coalition on 24%, One Nation on 26% and the Greens on 12%, with Labor leading the Coalition by 51-49 and One Nation by 52-48 on two-party preferred. Anthony Albanese is rated favourably by 31% and unfavourably by 52%; Angus Taylor favourably by 28% and unfavourably by 25%; Pauline Hanson favourably by 43% and unfavourably by 40%. Further questions explore voting intention by self-perceived social class and belief in the notion that “institutions and laws need to be completely rebuilt”, the latter taken to be a proxy for “populism”. The poll was conducted April 2 to 8 from a sample of 1002.
YouGov has “updated” their earlier post today on the S.A. election.
They actually were the closest (I think) with their S.A. election polling predictions.
Link: https://yougov.com/articles/54575-yougov-south-australian-poll-most-accurate-and-insightful
I’m not a religious person but the saying there but for the grace of God seems apt
It’s going to be a tough time for some on the NDIS come the budget. NPC with Mark Butler tomorrow should be interesting
The old age pension was only universal for a few years in the 70s. Prior to universal super, unless you were a special person with defined super, the middle classes self funded their retirement.
https://regionriverina.com.au/one-nation-and-nationals-to-preference-each-other-at-farrer-by-election/124111/
The Nationals will be preferencing One Nation and other conservatives ahead of Independent Michelle Milthorpe, whilst One Nation will return the favour by preferencing Liberals and Nationals 2nd and 3rd on their HTV card (with the number one vote going to ONP). A quick check of People’s First and Family First Party also shows them preferencing One Nation ahead of Milthorpe too. This may dampen expectations of Milthorpe’s victory considering the right is forming a firewall against her.
On an off note, the Nationals seem to have chosen a good candidate, because he made a good impression during a local debate by being direct and confident when answering their concerns. Farley and Milthorpe were strong performers but do not seem to perform consistently well as Robertson. The Liberal candidate was outshone by her rivals, and her performance may indicate that the Nationals will outperform the Liberals.
Also whilst checking on Farrer news, it seems like Malcom Mackerras has thrown his hat in the ring. He predicts that One Nation’s David Farley will win the by-election due to it’s rural nature and it’s similarity to SA seats like Hammond, MacKillop, Narungga and Ngadjuri. He does also criticise how the AEC designs Senate ballot papers, if that interests you.
https://switzer.com.au/farrer-by-election-one-nation-to-win/
Either way, recent developments, especially Mackerras’ prediction does not bode well for Michelle Milthorpe…
newy boysays:
Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 4:40 pm
Taylormade, Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 4:22 pm
—————————-
Are you serious? I had an RDO the fourth Monday of every month when I worked at BHP straight out of school in the early 1990’s. What on earth is your problem with RDO’s?
_______________________
No problem with RDO’s, but you are missing the point as usual. I’ll have to spell it out for you.
Public Holiday on MONDAY the 27th.
RDO on TUESDAY the 28th.
The workers on the Big Build are getting a 4 day weekend courtesy of the Public Holiday on the 27th.
Whilst the 27th is a normal work day for the rest of the state.
Sinking in ?
Canavan unlike some in the Coalition grasps that ON is an existential threat to his party and that playing footsie with them has helped ON rise while doing nothing for the Coalition.
I daresay ON’s threat to take the 2nd LNP Senate seat in QLD, which happens to be his, sharpens the mind on that front.
Taylormade the extra day off is part of the negotiated EBA, signed off by the employer and the workers.
I’ve worked on similar sites with the same sort of EBA’s.
That’s the power of Unions for you.
Stop sooking and go join one.
Google AI
Whether the United States is structured to be ruled by elites and oligarchs is a subject of intense debate, with many analysts arguing that while it remains a representative democracy in theory, its structure often allows wealth and concentrated power to heavily influence policy.
BBC
A widely cited 2014 study by Princeton University professor Martin Gilens and Northwestern University professor Benjamin I. Page concluded that American democracy is dominated by a rich and powerful elite, arguing that economic elites and organized business interests have a substantial, independent impact on government policy, while average citizens have little or no direct influence.
BBC
Here is a breakdown of the arguments regarding the structure of US democracy:
Arguments for Elite/Oligarchic Structure
• Influence of Money in Politics: Campaign finance laws have been weakened by Supreme Court decisions like Citizens United, allowing wealthy individuals and organizations to dump massive funds into elections.
• Policy Prioritization: Studies suggest that when policy preferences of the wealthy differ from those of average citizens, the wealthy typically prevail.
• Concentration of Wealth: The top 1% of US households hold nearly 30% of the nation’s wealth, while the bottom 50% holds about 2.5%, providing the super-rich with vast economic, social, and political power.
• “Oligarchy” Characteristics: Some scholars suggest the US possesses traits of an “oligarchy”—where a small, wealthy group controls the government to enrich themselves—particularly through lobbyists and large donations that enable them to set the political agenda, block legislation, or add specific language to laws.
BBC
Counter-Arguments and Nuances
Diverse Economy and Competition: • Some argue that, unlike a true oligarchy, the US economy is too large and diverse, and that major business interests are often in competition with one another rather than acting as a monolith.
• Democratic Features: The U.S. retains essential democratic features, including regular elections, freedom of speech and association, and a widespread, though contested, franchise.
• Public Opinion Matters: Public opinion can still be influential, and voters across party lines often desire stronger campaign finance laws to curb the influence of money.
•V”Oligarchic Democracy”: Some, including political scientist Jeffrey Winters, argue the US is a hybrid, a “combination of democracy and oligarchy” where democratic rules exist alongside a system where money can influence politics, making it “less a bastion of representative democracy than a nation trammeled by the desires of the hyper-wealthy”.
UK Voting Intention:
Via @YouGov , 19-20 Apr. Changes w/ 12-13 Apr.
RFM: 27% (+3)
CON: 17% (-2)
GRN: 17% (-1)
LAB: 16% (-1)
LDM: 14% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
RES: 3% (-1)
@Taylormade –
“The workers on the Big Build are getting a 4 day weekend courtesy of the Public Holiday on the 27th.
Whilst the 27th is a normal work day for the rest of the state.
Sinking in ?”
Yeah, they have a negotiated extra holiday. So what?
I thought your lot regarded the politics of envy as sacrilege, yet here you are, mad someone else negotiated something you didn’t.
The Age. Resolve poll.
It also confirms strong public support for a royal commission into allegations of corruption and organised crime in the construction industry raised by this masthead and the CFMEU’s independent investigator Geoffrey Watson.
Watson has put the estimated cost to taxpayers of corruption on government-owned “Big Build” sites at $15 billion. Seven out of 10 of survey respondents – including 66 per cent of Labor voters – supported the establishment of a royal commission to get to the bottom of it.
_______________________
This doesn’t surprise me. A bit on the low side if anything.
Arkysays:
Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 7:59 pm
I thought your lot regarded the politics of envy as sacrilege, yet here you are, mad someone else negotiated something you didn’t.
_______________________
Am all about fairness.
Not much of a negotiation either. When it comes to Allan, what the CFMEU wants the CFMEU gets.
My newest poorly thought out conspiracy theory :
The temporary staff who failed to turn up on polling day in South Australia were all One Nation and it was a trial run for an effort designed to cause chaos at the next Federal election.
Won’t hold up to any scrutiny, but I’m fond of this one.
The definition of insanity: Calling another Royal Commission into Unions expecting to find something more than corporate corruption.
Why is Taylormade griping about a public holiday? Is the rightwing suddenly warring on ANZAC Day FFS?
Thanks Taylormade & WB earlier. Good call!
Yep the Vic Resolve Poll has arrived.
* ALP 27% (-1)
* LNP 29% (-1)
* ON 21% (+10)
* GRN 10% (-2). This is unusually low for the Greens in Victoria
* Indies/Others 13% (-6)
I mean, the Coalition and ON’s electoral strategy is heavily centred around capturing the votes of demographics which contain lots of tradies and laborers – male, working age, non university educated – but by all means make it Coalition policy to stir up envy against them. I want to see how low that primary vote can get.
Resolve (state based polling) does not provide a 2PP.
I’ll leave it to the experts here to calculate, bit it look’s like roughly 51.5-48.5 in favour of the LNP to me.
Preferred Premier. Allan 20% (Gosh, this is dog s–t), & Wilson 39%
41% of the population in Victoria prefer neither of them.
This is quite a nightmare poll. Not quite sure what to make of it to be honest.
A Royal Commission is like the one thing it is easy to get a yes vote on from Australian poll responders.
If we want to make a constitutional change stick in future, we need to find a way to make it look like it’s a vote for a Royal Commission.
Should have named the Voice the Royal Commission into Indigenous Vocalisation, that would have passed.
Taylormade, Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 7:52 pm:
TM – you’re making absolutely no sense. My wife’s previous law firm shut down over the Christmas/New Year period, for understandable reasons. They gave all their solicitors the 3 business days off between Christmas and New Year, on the firm. Ie, they all had those days off without sacrificing any days of leave to do so. This gave them all an 8 day break without needing to take any leave. Are you going to express sour grapes over that now?
EDIT: that reminds me. At BHP, we all ‘saved up’ our October, November and December RDO’s and used them to have those same 3 business days off between Christmas and New Year there as well, giving us the same 8 day break on full pay, no leave taken. Got a problem with that?
It is probably too late to off Allan. But Victorian Labor needs to do it. Otherwise, they are going to dragged down by the boat anchor that is her leadership.
newy boysays:
Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 8:22 pm
Taylormade, Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 7:52
TM – you’re making absolutely no sense. My wife’s previous law firm shut down over the Christmas/New Year period, for understandable reasons.
_______________________
I couldn’t give a toss about what your wife’s ex law firm does over Christmas.
We are are talking about State Public Holidays.
They should be uniform.
Only variance should be Cup day based on region. Melbourne Cup, Geelong Cup, Warrnambool Cup etc
Libs in trouble in VIC with vote going backwards.
You just know labor in VIC who know how to win elections will fire up so the decision that may decide the election maybe concerning libs preferencing of One nation.
Interest rate rises coming soon,terrible budgets VIC and Comm also coming and inflation is still going up.
Libs vote should not be going backwards now.
Dummies, the ANZACs had to work on ANZAC day, so everyone else should too!
Thanks William.
Ven, thank you for your concern. I was being satirical but I’m very sorry if had worried you.
As for the poll, well, I really wish that I hadn’t been so impatient now…
B. S. Fairman says:
Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 8:31 pm
It is probably too late to off Allan. But Victorian Labor needs to do it. Otherwise, they are going to dragged down by the boat anchor that is her leadership.
=============
Yes, I think Kirsdarke has mentioned that Jacinta Allan’s approval ratings have been bad for several month’s. A 20% approval rating is not good. It’s seven months to the next election, but VicLabor may be running out of time with a “leadership swap”. I don’t even know who the Deputy Premier is, but maybe he/she can develop a profile.
I don’t think that Premier Allan can continue though. This is a shocking number.
Taylormade – is something wrong with you? Monday 27 and Tuesday 28 April are RDO’s for Big Build workers, under their EBA, not public holidays.
And if you drive down the Eastern Freeway, as we did around midnight last week, the works are in full swing
But some quibble about RDO’s
Given their presence on this site I would suggest that they are not working shifts thru the night – if they work at all!!
One of my friends has a son who works on the docks, working 7 day fortnight’s with 10 hour working days every second fortnight a night shift
So in essence a 35 hour working week for which he is well remunerated – and he is single because such working arrangements impede working 70 hours a week including overnight ahead of a week off
To get people to work these shifts you need to offer something (and he nominally receives RDO’s but on his days off anyway so compensated by remuneration)
The work place comes on all shapes and sizes – and whilst you are employed you make the most of it because in industries such as construction once the project is complete you are out of work looking for whatever opportunity comes next whenever and wherever
And when critical of Allan, why exactly?
An untested media description attacking the Leader?
So when you use the throwaway line”unpopular”, why and who says she is “unpopular”
And what about the IPA Opposition Leader?
What do we know of her?
No doubt our media will say she is popular!!!
I suppose all politically aware eyes in Victoria are on how the Nepean by-election goes, since it seems to be a Liberal-One Nation contest there.
After that though, yeah, Allan’s best move would be to step down voluntarily and make way for a new leader since she just can’t seem to recover in popularity. If she doesn’t, then Labor’s likely heading for a Kirner-style defeat.
Interesting thing I learned tonight was that Kirner was actually more popular than Kennett in polls leading up to the 1992 election, but Labor still lost by 56.3-43.7. This situation seems to be the opposite in that voters appear to hate the leader more than the party.
That’s a pretty crazy poll out of Victoria, Nepean might give us a snapshot of where things are actually at with One Nation down there but Labor not running will cloud the picture
Ben Carroll is the deputy Premier. But he is not the choice of the caucus – Gabrielle Williams is probably the choice of the caucus. Either would be better.
Employees receive a wage package. This package includes – take-home pay, taxes paid, sickies, holiday, super etc.. In this package you can negotiate extra holidays, maternity leave thru an EA but under normal circumstances this comes out of the wage package – ie less take home pay. The egregious problem with the Big Build is that the Victorian ALP government bent over for the CFMEU and the taxpayers had to fit the bill for their exorbitant and completely unreasonable demands. It is a disgusting disgrace that people willingly accept this level of corruption (Remember Jacinta’s DUI husband is ex CFMEU) while Victorians are the highest taxed state in Australia and are doing it tough. Also RDOs are not extra days off – they are extra time (theoretically) worked and saved up to make a complete day off.
Oh, just checked up on the results of the Peru Presidential election held last week and there’s a plot twist.
Looks like Roberto Sánchez Palomino (left) has overtaken Rafael López Aliaga (far right) for second place in the first round.
If this stands up then Palomino would be the candidate standing against Keiko Fujimori (also far right) in the second round in June.
Palomino leads Aliaga by 14,875 votes with 93.85% reporting.
H.B.G & Kirsdarke,
In raw numbers;
* ON + LNP = 50%
* ALP + GRN = 37%
There appears to be an issue with Premier Allan amongst Victorian voters.
Probably a swap to someone more effervescent, may be the game changer.
It’s possibly too late in the cycle. A 20% approval rating is extremely difficult to come back from!
I suggested a couple of weeks ago that Labor would probably hang on for a 4th term (in minority with the Greens), but this data suggests the “death spiral” poll may have arrived.
I believe we may have a Redbridge/Accent Research Vic Poll soon. We re-assess in a week or so.
Any idea when the next QLD poll is?
nadia @ #795 Tuesday, April 21st, 2026 – 5:43 pm
So. Obsessive, ill-informed and devoid of empathy. A greed.
YouGov poll (via Skynews)
* ALP 27% (-3)
* ON 27% (+2)
* LNP 20% (nc)
* GRN 14% (+1) Greens ticking up nationally.
* Others/Indies 12% (nc)
I’ll leave others to calculate the 2PP
Link: https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/pauline-hansons-one-nation-draws-level-with-labor-on-27-per-cent-primary-vote-for-first-time-in-sky-news-pulse-history/news-story/cbc88f47eac6ff1b3b8aa563dfe305e2
yabba says:
Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 9:06 pm
nadia @ #795 Tuesday, April 21st, 2026 – 5:43 pm
It was a bit of a blooper my end. All over.
So. Obsessive, ill-informed and devoid of empathy. A greed.
============
yabba,
This site is geared towards polling and policy stuff.
I drop polls. That is what i’m interested in.
You drop crap on this site, though I don’t mind some of the pictures you post on your evening walks.
Maybe go and set up a facebook page devoted to yourself, and get off my back.
I don’t bother others here, so get off my back. Maybe contribute something here…like a poll or two.
Remember, the site is geared towards polls and policy and chit chat, and not you!
While Victorian Labor and South Australian Labor are chalk and cheese, raw numbers never tell the whole story. Preferences don’t flow 100%
In saying that, Labor is big trouble at this point in time
I was surprised by the Greens number, that’s very low by Victorian standards
@nadia
Well, never too late for a recovery if leadership is the problem. Both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison went on to win elections in 2016 and 2019 after less than a year in office, and there’s still 7 months to go until Victoria goes to the polls. Tony Abbott came close in 2010 as well.
On the red side, there’s the astonishing recovery of the Canadian Liberals after Justin Trudeau voluntarily resigned and Mark Carney took over, and he wasn’t even in parliament yet.
But yeah, that hinges on whether or not Allan goes voluntarily. If there’s a messy leadership challenge then that’ll doom Labor even worse than if she held on.
That’s a much better poll for the Greens, thanks Nadia
So much for the drop in the One Nation vote though and it looks like Labor will stay sub 30 on Bludger Track a bit longer yet
Bludgeoned Westie, that’s interesting news about the right “firewall” against Milthorpe. It’s quite sensible on their part and indicates a strong level of fear.
The issue will be how tightly the Nats and Libs voters follow the HTVs. Doesn’t matter about ON prefs as they will go down to the wire against Milthorpe.
I’ll guess that folk who don’t want to give ON their 1st pref won’t give them a second or third one either.
Kirsdrake – Thanks for the update. Must have been votes from the more remote parts coming in.
So much for the One Nation plateau.
The Liberals made a dreadful mistake voting for Angus Taylor.
The Nats must be out of funds:
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-its-a-chilly-campaign-for-matt-canavan-in-farrer-280583
Includes uComms poll.
Angus Taylor just trying to be relevant nowadays. Sky News After Dark must be so proud. Obviously his new immigration policy has gone down like a lead balloon.
Hi Yabba,
You’re a “vomit troll” here.
Get off my back and leave me be.
I cause no problems here. You, on the other hand?
Love & Kisses, Nadia
I’ll be here for an hour or so if you want to have dig. I’m waiting, though we’ll probably get a new thread in a few moments.
Is this projection week yabba? Are you only showing up now to try and drive female commenters off the site or something?
Yougov:
Despite Labor’s weakening primary vote – the lowest recorded for the party – the government would still win an election if held today.
Labor led the Coalition 53–47 on a two-party-preferred basis, while One Nation jumped two points to trail Labor 52-48.
The minor party also held a two-party-preferred lead over Labor in both Queensland and South Australia.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/pauline-hansons-one-nation-draws-level-with-labor-on-27-per-cent-primary-vote-for-first-time-in-sky-news-pulse-history/news-story/cbc88f47eac6ff1b3b8aa563dfe305e2
Arange says:
Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 9:04 pm
Any idea when the next QLD poll is?
==============
Should be imminent Arange, via Resolve and published on the Brisbane Times website.
There will also be a QLD YouGov poll coming soon, or at least I got a poll from the YouGov website yesterday.