US New Jersey 11 federal special election live

Live Commentary

2:17pm While the Reps retained Georgia 14 at the April 7 special, Dems had a 25-point gain from the 2024 presidential margin. In this special, there’s only an 11-point gain.

12:52pm With 94% in, Mejia’s vote falls below 60% as she now leads by 59.6-40.0. The remaining votes probably won’t be fully counted for another week. Those votes are likely to skew Dem, so Mejia’s vote will probably be over 60% when everything is counted. At the moment, it’s an 11-point margin shift to Dems compared with the 2024 presidential election result in this district.

12:20pm With 87% in, Mejia’s lead has been reduced to 61.3-38.3. This 23-point margin compares with a 9-point margin in this district for Kamala Harris in 2024.

12:02pm Essex, the most Dem-friendly county, counted nearly all its votes quickly, giving a misleading impression of a huge Dem win. As Morris and Passaic catch up with their election day votes, the Dem lead is being eroded, now at 62.5-37.0 with 79% in.

11:40am Passaic gives Mejia a 19-point lead with 47% in from that county. With 68% counted overall, Mejia leads by 65.8-33.7. Election day vote counting in Morris is reducing her lead.

11:07am Essex, the most Dem-friendly county, just counted its election day votes, reducing Mejia’s overall lead to 68.4-31.1 with 55% in. There are still no results from Passaic county.

10:57am With 44% in for NJ 11, Dem Mejia has won, defeating Rep Hathaway by 69.6-29.9. One of the three counties included in this seat hasn’t reported any results, and that county is probably more right-wing than the other two. Votes counted so far are probably early votes, and election day votes will be better for Hathaway.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 10am AEST today for a federal special election in Democrat Mikie Sherill former New Jersey 11 seat after she resigned following her election as NJ governor in November 2025. I will be out until nearly 11am.

The Democratic nominee is left-winger Analilia Mejia, after she won the February 5 Democratic primary with just 29.3%. Pro-Israel attacks on establishment favourite Tom Malinowski were thought responsible for his loss, finishing second with 27.6%. The Republican nominee is Joe Hathaway. An early March poll gave Mejia a 53-36 lead over Hathaway.

At US general elections, the use of first past the post doesn’t usually affect the outcome as Democrats and Republicans combined win well over 95% of votes. But Malinowski would have likely won the primary had preferential voting been used.

At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in NJ 11 by 53.3-44.6, an 8.7-point margin. At the 36 state and federal special elections held so far in 2026, Democrats have performed on average 11.1 points better than the Trump vs Harris margin in those same seats.

Republicans hold a 218-213 House of Representatives majority with three other vacancies. The Republican member for California’s first died in early January, with the jungle primary to be held on June 2 and a runoff if needed on August 4. On Tuesday, Democrat Eric Swalwell (California 14) and Republican Tony Gonzalez (Texas 23) resigned their House seats owing to sexual abuse scandals.  A jungle primary will be held in California 14 on June 16 and a runoff if needed on August 18.

Swalwell has also suspended his campaign for California governor. California holds a jungle primary on June 2, with the top two, regardless of party, advancing to the November general election. Before Swalwell’s suspension, polls suggested there was some chance of two Republicans making the runoff in this heavily Democratic state owing to vote splitting between the three leading Democrats (Swalwell, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter). With Swalwell out, that’s no longer a realistic possibility.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -16.7, 0.2 points better than it was in my April 8 article. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.7 points, a 0.2-point improvement for Democrats. Midterm elections occur this November.

Next Tuesday (Wednesday AEST), a referendum on a Democratic gerrymander will be held in Virginia. A “yes” vote at this referendum would give Democrats a 10-1 split from Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats. Three of the last four polls dating from late March have had “yes” leading by 5-9 points, with a smaller-sample poll giving “no” a one-point lead.