Live Commentary
9:47am Wednesday With their three by-election wins, the Liberals now hold 174 of the 343 House of Commons seats, two above the 172 needed for a majority. That’s up five since the 2025 election, with all gains by defections. The Conservatives hold 140 (down four), the BQ 22 (steady), the NDP six (down one) and the Greens one (steady).
2:37pm All 153 booths have been counted in University-Rosedale. The Liberals won 64.4% (up 0.4% since the 2025 election), the NDP 18.9% (up 9.0%) and the Tories 12.4% (down 11.1%). Another dreadful swing result for the Tories, but here the NDP benefited.
2:20pm With all 211 booths counted in Terrebonne, the Liberals defeat the BQ by 48.4-46.8. Since the 2025 election, the Liberal vote was up 9.7%, the BQ vote up 8.1% and the Tories got just 3.3% (down 14.9%). In this seat, the Tories can blame squeezing of their vote between two viable contenders for this dismal performance.
2:06pm With 207 of 211 booths in for Terrebonne, the Liberals lead the BQ by 48.5-46.8. The Liberals are likely to win this one too, and have 174 Commons seats, two above the 172 needed for a majority.
1:47pm With 202 of 211 booths in for Terrebonne, the Liberals lead the BQ by 48.4-46.9.
1:30pm All 188 booths have been counted in Scarborough Southwest. The Liberal won 69.9% (up 8.4% since the 2025 general election), the Tories 18.4% (down 12.2%) and the NDP 6.0% (up 1.0%). A terrible result in swing terms for the Tories and a great result for the Liberals.
1:16pm With 185 of 211 booths in for Terrebonne, the Liberals lead the BQ by 48.2-47.1
12:34pm With 120 of 211 booths reported in Terrebonne, the Liberals have a 48.6-46.7 lead over the BQ. This probably won’t be called until the final booths are counted, which will be the big pre-poll booths.
12:08pm In Terrebonne, the Liberals now lead the BQ by 48.7-46.7 with 60 of 211 booths in. There’s a long list of candidates which probably slows the counting.
12:06pm The Liberals have been called the winner in University-Rosedale, where they lead the NDP by 63-20 with 13% for the Tories with 50 of 153 booths in. In Scarborough Southwest, the Liberals have a 67-19 lead over the Tories with 60 of 188 booths in. That should be called for the Liberals soon. Winning these two seats will take the Liberals to 173 seats, above the 172 needed for a majority.
11:53am With 35 of 211 polling booths reported in Terrebonne, the Quebec Bloc has a 47.9-47.8 lead over the Liberals.
9:48am Polls for the by-elections actually close at 10:30am AEST, not 11:30. I will be out until nearly 12pm.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 11:30am AEST today for three Canadian federal by-elections. The centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 House of Commons seats at the April 2025 Canadian feder9:45amal election, three short of a majority. The Conservatives won 144 seats, the separatist Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven and the Greens one.
Since that election, four Conservatives have defected to the Liberals, and the Liberals have also gained one from the NDP via a defection. Two Liberals in safe seats have resigned and the Terrebonne result was voided by the courts after the Liberals originally defeated the BQ by just one vote. By-elections for the two safe Liberal seats and Terrebonne occur today. If the Liberals win at least one of these three by-elections, they will have a Commons majority.
Canadian elections use first past the post. At the 2025 election in Terrebonne, the Liberals and BQ tied with 38.74% each with the Liberals getting one more vote. The Conservatives were third with 18.2%. In the two safe Liberal seats, in 2025 the Liberals won University-Rosedale by 64.0-23.5 over the Conservatives with 9.9% for the NDP. The Liberals won Scarborough Southwest by 61.5-30.6 over the Conservatives with 5.0% for the NDP.
Canadian federal polls currently give the Liberals a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, up from 2.5 points at the 2025 election. On this polling, the Liberals should easily hold their two safe seats and will probably win Terrebonne.
Far-right Fidesz thumped at Hungarian election
Of the 199 Hungarian seats, 106 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 93 by national proportional representation with a 5% threshold. With 98.2% counted at Sunday’s election, the conservative and pro-European Tisza won 136 seats (new), while Viktor Orbán’s governing far-right Fidesz won 56 seats (down 79). The remaining six seats went to another far-right party. This result ended Fidesz’s 16-year reign as the Hungarian governing party. Remaining votes will come from Hungary’s diaspora, which is very pro-Fidesz.
The 136 seats for Tisza is above the 133 needed for a two-thirds supermajority that is required to change the constitution. This will allow Tisza to undo changes made during Orbán’s 16 years in power. Tisza won the 106 FPTP seats by 92-14 from vote shares of 54.4% Tisza and 37.8% Fidesz. In the national list, Tisza won 52.4% of the votes and Fidesz 39.2% (down 15.0%).
In the lead-up to the election, there was a large difference in the polls between pro-Fidesz pollsters (which gave Fidesz 5-8 point leads) and other pollsters (which gave Tisza 9-17 point leads). The election results show that the pro-Fidesz polls were badly wrong.
At the 2022 election, the United for Hungary alliance of mainly left-wing parties had won 57 seats, but none of the parties included in that alliance won any seats at this election, as it became polarized between Tisza and Fidesz.
Dutch government formation
At the October 2025 Dutch election, the liberal D66 won 26 of the 150 seats, the populist right PVV 26, the conservative VVD 22, the Green Left 20 and the conservative Christian Democrats (CDA) 18. A minority government was formed on February 23 from D66, VVD and CDA. These three parties combined have 66 seats, ten short of a majority.
Thanks for all your work Adrian.
First results coming in, Canadian Liberals look comfortable in University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, Bloc Quebecois starting with a small lead in Terrebonne.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/livestory/byelections-terrebonne-university-rosedale-scarborough-southwest-9.7162168
Live updates: Carney secures majority government with Liberal win in Toronto byelection, CBC News projects
Terrebonne (change with the election last year):
* BQ 49.3% (+10.6)
* LIBS 46.4% (+7.9)
* TOR 2.8% (-15.6) Falling off a cliff compared to last time
Counted 8.66%
Link: https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?ed=2373&lang=e
Scarborough South West
Libs up about 5%, and Tories down about 11%.
Majority gov’t for the PM.
Liberals have taken the lead in Terrebonne for the moment with 50/211 polling places counted.
Just watching that too. It flipped.
Libs 48.6 to BQ 46.8, with 14.15% counted
Pick up of all 3 seats perhaps?
The Liberal lead in Terebonne is increasing, now 49.0% to 46.3%.
Unless there’s a large BQ batch of votes remaining, it does look like a triple win.
I see the “Parti Rhinocéros” Party, has picked up a few votes (17).
I gather this is a sister party to the Monster Raving Looney Party in the U.K.
I’d say the Canadian Conservative party is in dire trouble, if they can’t even pick up a swing at a by-election or three. I haven’t really followed Canada much, but I’m not too sure why they brought back their leader (Poilievre) who lost his own seat at the general election.
Liberal lead in Terebonne pulling back in a bit again. They currently lead by 262 votes with 110 polling places counted.
Probably another close result.
After the Liberal lead bounced around between 250-350 votes for a while, the lead is now 522 votes with 127 polling places counted.
Lib vote in Scarborough SW. 70.3% Gosh.
Up 9 points from last year.
A rather sobering MRP by Focaldata per U.S. on the make up of the House.
Dems 231, Repubs 204
Link: https://www.focaldata.com/blog/mrp-poll-democrats-on-course-to-win-the-house
I was thinking the Repubs would fall below 200 seats.
Lead of 567 now in Terrebonne with 130 booths in, or 35% counted.
Look’s like she’s edging ahead as the count progresses.
Seems like the big early voting booths are starting to come in, the Liberal lead has grown to 911 votes.
@nadia at 12:48pm
So less than 20 seats to flip to the Democrats during all this. That’s just woeful if it turns out to be the case in November.
Yes. I think the election over there may be tighter than many others think (or wish for). I was thinking at one stage the Repubs would slip well below 200 seats. I saw that poll you dropped earlier today from YouGov( I dropped it yesterday, but no big deal). The primary figures are 38 Dems, 36 Repubs.
It’s actually quite close. Those who focus on the “Trump popularity” of negative 15 or whatever are being a bit silly, as it is the Generic Congressional Vote which is important, especially given Trump isn’t on the ballot this year.
We’ll see what happens during the year, but I think it’s quite close.
Trump starts his rallies up soon too, this Friday in Phoenix, Arizona.
Lead has dropped to 467, with 45% counted.
Very tight race this one.
Lead now 260, with 46% counted.
In Canadian elections, do candidates need to submit a deposit? If so, what is the incentive for all these ‘nuisance’ candidates – currently there are 19 candidates in Terrebonne on O votes and I think 13 on 1 vote. What is the point? However the top three candidates have about 98% plus of the votes so voters can manage in a FPTP system
Could be early stages of fallout for the Conservative leader. Article in the Toronto Star…
“Pierre Poilievre not expecting Conservative caucus revolt after latest defection, source says”.
Code speak for : “His job is on the line”, perhaps.
AB – do you know much about the Canadian Conservatives (ie are they a bit similar to the VicLibs).
He’s gone backwards in all 3 seats today, and as you mentioned in the lead in, he’s losing members to the Libs via defection.
Link: https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/pierre-poilievre-not-expecting-conservative-caucus-revolt-after-latest-defection-source-says/article_38dc1a15-6d0c-4866-924f-5fa627276505.html
Mark Carney is riding high by rebelling against Trump.
Trump is making a substantial difference to the progressive side by bringing out progressive voters out in large numbers.
Canadian media if Terrebonne results in another tie between Liberals and BQ:
Although less likely to happen now with 200/211 polling booths counted and the Liberals lead by 626 votes.
I believe the original reason for large numbers of candidates standing at by-elections was as a protest against FPTP.
Liberals lead by 770 votes with 207 polling booths in.
That might be it for Terrebonne, unless the 4 remaining booths have like thousands of votes to go through.
CBC have called Terrebonne for the Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste, 48.4%-46.8% over BQ candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné with all 211 booths counted.
Most of those surveyed in that MRP by Focaldata that Nadia kindly provided a link for above, would have been surveyed prior to the fuel price rises, as the survey was conducted over January, February and March. The figures for the Republicans would probably be a lot worse for them, if conducted presently.
For a recent article on the Canadian campaign against First Past The Post voting, see below. There will be no legal quick fix, only legislation can change it.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-voting-system-9.7151447
Supreme Court won’t hear case contesting constitutionality of Canada’s voting system
Electoral reform advocates argued first-past-the-post system violates Charter of Rights and Freedoms
Jim Bronskill · The Canadian Press · Posted: Apr 02, 2026 11:14 AM EDT | Last Updated: April 3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longest_Ballot_Committee
The Longest Ballot Committee is a Canadian activist movement known for flooding ballots with a large number of independent candidates in protest of the first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system in the country. The movement argues there is a conflict of interest when politicians are in charge of election rules, and calls for election law to be decided by a permanent, independent, and non-partisan body, such as a citizens’ assembly. It is affiliated with the satirical Rhinoceros Party.
Dang. The Liberals with a majority as well? What’s next? A surprise victory for Labor in Victoria?
Oh yeah, also coming up this week is a special election for New Jersey’s 11th congressional district on Friday (Australian time)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_New_Jersey%27s_11th_congressional_district_special_election
Looks like it’ll be a safe Democratic retain, but the swing should be interesting to see. It went 56.5-41.8 to the Democrats in 2024.
@Kirsdarke I reckon it might be 82-18 in favour of the Democrats if the last special election is something to go of off.
@TBM
Probably not that dramatic, but if the Democrats get over 65% then that’d be a strong result for them. 60-65% would be about an average result, but below 60% would be a poor outcome for them.
He makes good points.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwf6H0VPwJg
I watched the CBC coverage on Monday night.
The person representing the NDP kept going on about whether the Carney majority was somehow illegal in that it was achieved by floor crossing MPs (including one from the NDP). But then swerved to it being immoral and somehow “not a real majority”.
But a majority is a majority and is how Parliaments work.
The Conservative rep was quite sanguine – they weren’t going to win any of the seats after all.
But he did basically say Poilievre and his leadership was on thin ice. He said last year he could get away with a poor performance because it was the year after the election and he had to fight a by-election to get back into Parliament.
And this year he said Poilievre was asking for even more time but his letters to shadow cabinet members asking them to justify their positions didn’t go down well (and may have led to the most recent defection to the Liberals).
The undercurrent of what he was saying was that if Poilievre didn’t improve soon he’d be out on his ear.
@ChrisC
Interesting post, thanks for that.
It looks like the next major Canadian contest is the Provincial election in Quebec, and even though Provincial and Federal politics are very different in Canada, it’s my understanding that the Coalition Avenir Quebec is aligned with the Conservatives and they look set to suffer a landslide loss later this year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Quebec_general_election#Opinion_polls
They won 2022 with 41% of the vote, now they’re down to 14% and would possibly lose almost everything. Unhelpful for Poilievre.
CAQ are conservative with a small C, but not allied with the federal Conservatives – there’s an actual party by that name in Quebec, which managed to get almost 13% in 2022 without winning any seats. (This didn’t cause problems for CAQ because vote splitting on the left was even worse.) The party system in Quebec is so different from the rest of the country that it’s unlikely to change things much for Poiliviere (or Carney).
Quebec politics is hard for outsiders like us (probably even other Canadians) to understand because there’s not just left vs right, there’s another axis involving the status of Quebec. Liberal and Conservative are federalist, the others aren’t. Whatever the difference is between “Quebec nationalism” and “Quebec sovereigntism”, CAQ are one, PQ and QS are the other.
Polling has been looking good for PQ for a while, but the Liberals have had a recent bounce after getting a new leader. With five parties in the mix and FPTP, about all you can say is CAQ are going to lose government. They desperately need a better voting system.
Interesting link here, because why not:
https://thewalrus.ca/the-generation-that-outgrew-quebec-nationalism/