Three federal poll results to relate, two new and another less so. The latest DemosAU poll for Capital Brief is a distinctly weak result for Labor, who are down three points on the February poll to 26%. One Nation are now level with them, despite being down two points. The Coalition is up two to 23% and the Greens are up one to 13%. A seat projection suggests Labor would likely be left scrambling for a minority government with the support of Greens and independents.
Anthony Albanese has a positive rating of 26% (down one), neutral of 28% (down four) and negative of 46% (up five); Angus Taylor debuts at 25%, 47% and 28%; and Pauline Hanson is respectively down one to 34%, up two to 27% and down one to 39%. A set of leader attribute results notably extends to Hanson, whose 59% for “has a vision for Australia”, 58% for “decisive and strong” and 55% for “in control of their party” are substantially more favourable than any result for Albanese or Taylor.
The poll found only 28% rating the United States “a reliable military ally for Australia”, with 47% disagreeing. Twenty-two per cent agreed that the government should “closely support President Trump”, down from 36% in January 2025, with 59% holding that it should “distance itself” from him, up from 45%. Nineteen per cent agreed that “Australia needs a Prime Minister like Donald Trump”, down eight points on January 2025, with 69% disagreeing, up ten. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1439.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down half a point to 30%, One Nation up three to 24.5%, the Coalition down one-and-a-half to 22.5% and the Greens up half to 12.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition is unchanged at 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences, and out from 53.5-46.5 to 54-46 based on 2025 election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1512.
Freshwater Strategy has released polling it conducted late last month for “News Australia” (I’m not clear who that is exactly) that included a voting intention result, showing Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 23%, One Nation on 25% and the Greens on 12%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred (presumably going off respondent-allocated preferences) and Anthony Albanese leading Angus Taylor 42-36 on preferred prime minister.
The poll also features extensive attitudinal questions, the most instructive of which relate to the Iran conflict. Twenty-six per cent expressed support for “the United States and Israel’s military campaign” with 48% opposed and 21% neither; 40% rated the US and 14% Israel as most responsible for it, compared with 18% for Iran.
Thirty-one were satisfied with, 33% dissatisfied with and 30% neutral about the Albanese government’s handling of the conflict (I invariably wish questions like this would break down the dissatisfied into hawks and doves); 22% said they would support, 59% oppose (45% strongly so) and 15% be neutral about Australian military participation if requested by the US; 28% would support, 47% oppose and 20% be neutral about Australia accepting refugees from the region “if the current conflict leads to a wider humanitarian crisis”.
Other questions find a distinctly poor result for national mood, with 28% rating the country headed in the right direction and 60% the wrong direction, and striking insights into the popularity of One Nation: not only is Pauline Hanson rated favourably by 47% and unfavourably by 37%, and even Barnaby Joyce, who was rated favourably by 35% and unfavourably by 34%, compared with 20% and 47% at a RedBridge Group poll in December. The poll was conducted March 27 to 29 from a sample of 1050.
Also of note:
• I have a guide up for the Farrer by-election, for which the ballot paper draw was conducted on Tuesday. I’ll have a full post for discussion closer to the big day.
• The ANU Press has published its regular post-election tome, this one called Landslide: The 2025 Australian Federal Election, which is available for download in full and for free. Of particular interest is Simon Jackman’s analysis of the four waves of surveying conducted by the Australian National University from December to May, allowing for changing attitudes and voting intentions of the same panel of respondents to be tracked over time. It concludes that a very substantial improvement in Labor support over the period came at the expense of the Greens (particularly among the tertiary-educated) and the Coalition (particularly among those of ethnically diverse backgrounds), but not “others”; that change in voting intention from the Coalition to Labor was closely linked to changing assessments of the two leaders; and that the Voice referendum cost the Coalition more support among yes voters than it did Labor among no voters.
• The Tasmanian Greens have chosen Vanessa Bleyer, an environmental lawyer who ran in Braddon in last year’s state election, to fill the vacancy that will arise in August from Peter Whish-Wilson’s resignation from the Senate. The ABC reports the party membership ballot, which was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission, resulted in 42.25% for Bleyer; 30.47% for Tabatha Badger, who has held a state seat for Lyons since the March 2024 election; 15.82% for Scott Jordan, an environmental campaigner and frequent election candidate; and 11.45% for Alistair Allan, a former Sea Shepherd captain and candidate for Lyons at last year’s federal election.
Affairs of state:
• I also have a page up for the Victorian state by-election in Nepean, and will likewise have a post up about it a week or so out from polling day. I am impatiently waiting for a new Victorian state poll, of which there have been none in two months, at which point I will unload the huge accumulation of preselection news I have gathered over the past few months.
• Seven months out from the election, the High Court has invalidated Victoria’s entire regime regulating campaign spending and donations, including donation caps, disclosure requirements and public funding. This went well beyond what was sought by the plaintiffs, Paul Hopper and Melissa Lowe, who challenged an exemption to the donation caps after running unsuccessfully as independents in 2022. This allowed for unlimited contributions from the major parties’ entities holding income-producing capital assets, a benefit effectively unobtainable by newer parties and independents. The court unanimously ruled that this made the donation caps an impermissible burden on freedom of political communication (a concept that separately had a run this week through the invalidation of the New South Wales government’s protest laws), in a way that implicated numerous other provisions of the relevant part of the act. As constitutional scholar Anne Twomey relates, the government will be “scrambling to reconstruct and reenact it in a constitutionally valid manner” in time for the election. Further, the ruling may have implications for a challenge to the federal government’s campaign finance reforms being pursued through the High Court by former Senator Rex Patrick and former Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel.
• There has been a late twist in the South Australian election with the discovery of 642 out-of-district votes that were cast in the regional seat of Stuart and not sent on as required for transfer to the relevant electorates’ vote-counting centres. This is particularly noteworthy for the neighbouring seat of Narungga, which Chantelle Thomas of One Nation won by 58 votes, a number exceeded by the 81 votes (77 cast on election day, four during early voting) that are now known to have been overlooked. These votes will be examined today to see if they would have changed the result, which would have to be rated highly unlikely. But as Antony Green relates, the official vote tally cannot be changed at this point as the result has been declared and the writ returned: any remedial action, either to the tally or the actual outcome, would require a ruling of the Court of Disputed Returns. The Electoral Commission will assuredly refer the matter to the court if the votes are found to favour the Liberal candidate so overwhelmingly as to overturn the margin, that being its only recourse. However, Antony Green notes that the Liberal Party “already has concerns about rejected postal votes”, and may pursue its own court action come what may. The other aspect of the count to be determined is finalising the result for the Legislative Council, which is still over a week away.
I agree with Arky on this. I’m comfortable with people who have a history in a place for 60,000 years claiming they have ‘always been here’. I don’t think it will undermine science.
Omar Comin’, just because you don’t know anything doesn’t mean nobody else does either.
I don’t want to touch ‘Strategy’ poll with a barbed wire. But WB included it anyway. So there is that.
Resolve looks not bad poll for ALP.
Omar Comin’says:
Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 7:19 pm
Oh yeah you got an evolutionary tree in your head do you dickhead
this one should stick to footy
__________
Yeah I do, and you’re in it with the label ‘fuckwit’.
Sure WB, nath is some scholar who needs you to stick up for him
nath
Good point. I think what you’re talking about was Homo heidelbergensis, which some consider to be a sub-species of Homo erectus and a common ancestor to all of the species of Homo that survived into the last 90,000 years or so. But other scientists don’t agree.
Anyway, I was talking about the Homo erectus sub-species of Asia which, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, scientists don’t believe interbred with Homo sapiens on the latter’s way through to the Asia-Pacific. But I think that’s only a tentative view at this stage.
Context: https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/04/08/federal-polls-yougov-roy-morgan-redbridge-group-open-thread/comment-page-15/#comment-4702636
This week’s batch of polls shows Labor now hitting 32%, with Roy Morgan still holding Labor at 30%. This is the third week in a row where Labor has seen some improvement in primary vote or is maintaining a number of around 30%. Note that I will be treating the DemosAU poll as an outlier, given that 26 is far below other recent polls putting Labor in a range of around 29-31%.
I’m not sure whether this trend is an aberration now, my simplest explanation for it’s occurrence boils down to Labor being the incumbent party during the current energy crisis caused by Trump’s Iran war.
I also want to point out how One Nation seems to be plateauing in the graphs shown in Wikipedia’s opinion polling aggregate and Bludgertrack. I won’t say One Nation has hit their peak because we are still years out from the election. However, if they have peaked, it feels unusual that it’s occurred so quickly. People may draw parallels to Reform UK’s polling peak of 29-31%, but at least they stayed around that range for most of 2025 and early 2026.
@Scott says: Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 4:47 pm
“One nation is getting the lib/nats voters ,which is not going to do much, for one nation or lib/nats challenging labor in labor held seats.”
Not to come off as a doomer but One Nation is also peeling off a decent amount of Labor voters too, as evident through how Labor got 15-19% swings in the Northern Adelaide seats like Elizabeth and Light. Some of it may be attributed it loss of incumbency, but the same swings can be seen in Taylor, Nick Champion’s seat.
I appreciate good hard thinking about good hard evidence… especially when it alters the frames.
At one stage I did a great course in biogeography. Inter alia we studied the Australian pollen record (including from Lake George cores).
At that stage it was thought that the changes in the pollen record reflected changes in vegetation (the advance in distribution of the eucalypts) which reflected changes in burning patterns which reflected the arrival of H. sapiens fire igniters and which also perhaps reflected the movement of our Plate further north into drier and warmer climes.
That stuff is probably by now all OBE.
Nath is right, about both homo erectus and you being a fuckwit.
Just like he was right about newy being a fuckwit I guess
Omar Comin
I can confirm she’s a real person. I’m not regularly in touch with her, and am not even sure I have her current email address. Perhaps someone else on here would be prepared to contact her on your behalf? In the broad, what are you trying to talk to her about?
Sorry MB I thought for some reason you had actually attended an event with her in person
OC
Yes I have on several occasions. But I’m not regularly in communication with her by email. Possibly others are. But, as I said, what do you want to contact her about?
Meher, have you seen the Nova doco ‘Dawn of Humanity’ regarding the discovery of Homo Naledi?
Fascinating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzLJAa5X4Fo
meher baba I need to let her know about my chooks
Boerwar
I am generally in favour of the Sea3000 project and happy with the Mogami choice.
I have said before that the Mogami FF30 (and the rival Meko A210) are both good ships. Both are good purchases relative to Australia’s needs – long range, seaworthy, from builders with good reputations for making reliable ships.
Only the Meko A210 is actually in service, so they bent the tender rules a bit going for the Mogami FF30.
The price is couched in vague terms and is double what was previously announced. So once again the RAN has chosen the highest cost option. It is good, but they seem incapable of choosing best value.
The much bigger question, after four years, is not the ship but the shipyard. Has ownership of the Henderson shipyard site been sorted out? If yes when will it be built? THen when will the local build actually start.
mb
While we are on the general topic I don’t support the claim to being the ‘oldest culture’ in the world, either.
Thanks nath. That looks fascinating. I’ll try to watch it tomorrow (too tired now to concentrate: I’m an old bugger, after all).
Soc
Thanks.
nathsays:
Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 7:17 pm
meher babasays:
But, until anybody can produce any evidence that any modern humans are carrying Homo erectus DNA,
…
___________
It is my understanding that both Neanderthals and Denisovans as well as H. Sapiens all derived from Homo Erectus.
=====================================
That is my understanding too that H. erectus is basal to the three Homo species you mentioned. Also I’m happy that peoples who have been in a certain place 60,000 years would have no cultural memory of ever being anywhere else. In fact I would be very dubious of any supposed culture memory that recalled them coming there, considering the number of generations back in time that was.
Mavis
After reading the Paul Krugman discussion, Magyar certainly does not come out as any sort of shining knight!
Cartoons before your morning!
BW:
I agree. We really have no way of knowing whether or not the culture of the people in Australia 50,000 or 60,000 years ago bears much of a resemblance, if any, to the culture that was recorded by the earliest British colonists. Even if it does, that might also be the case with the culture of the people of the New Guinea highlands, who have been there just as long. And there are probably even older cultures in Africa.
Still, Indigenous Australians would have a claim to having lived autonomously from all other peoples on the planet for longer than only a few small communities in very isolated places elsewhere in the world (again, perhaps in New Guinea and parts of Africa).
Omar Comin’:
Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 7:29 pm
Give it a miss. Cat gave you an entry to this site, but you interpreted that as carte blanche. It doesn’t work that way on this site.
test
Entropy:
I think that applies to most people anywhere on the planet, apart from first, second and perhaps third generation migrants. It’s written records and scientific data that persuade people that their ancestors came from somewhere else. I don’t think there are too many people in Britain whose families have passed down stories about their Viking or Norman ancestors.
As far as Ukraine goes, Peter Magyar does seem to be a big improvement on Viktor Orbán, in particular he says that he will allow EU aid to get through. Mr Magyar also says that he supports the EU and NATO.
We’ll see how it goes.
We got Mavis, can we get MI in on the action too? What about some old friends…
meher babasays:
Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 7:44 pm
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The oldest continuous culture on earth is probably the Khoisan, as still practiced by those people in the Kalahari.
Though some suggest this culture ended from the repercussions of a coke a cola bottle being introduced into their culture in the 1970’s.
Seems you’re outgunned.
Only one move left really.
Newspoll just dropped: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-one-nation-support-falls-as-voters-resist-new-revenue-measures/news-story/ba583310b812fd590a07d4c5e6812838
Core support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has fallen again, as voters resist support for any new taxes and revenue measures in Anthony Albanese’s fifth budget.
An exclusive Newspoll prepared for The Australian reveals that One Nation’s primary vote has slid from a historic high of 27 per cent in February to 24 per cent, as the right-wing party faces greater scrutiny and increased pressure from a more assertive Coalition.
Amid the ongoing fuel crisis, fears of a global recession and immigration policy clashes, support for the Albanese government and Coalition remained static at 31 per cent and 21 per cent respectively. Mr Albanese holds a nine-point margin over Angus Taylor on who voters think would make the better prime minister. The Newspoll, conducted between Monday and Thursday last week, included a question asking 1235 voters whether they endorsed 10 options Jim Chalmers may pursue to increase revenue streams in the budget. None of the options attracted an absolute majority, despite only one in six voters rejecting all suggestions.
Increasing the petroleum resource rent tax was deemed the most acceptable option, with 42 per cent of voters supporting the reform, ahead of 35 per cent who supported reducing tax concessions for property investors, 29 per cent who backed lower tax concessions for family trusts, and 27 per cent who favoured taxing inheritances of more than $1m.
The PRRT overhaul and crackdown on property investor tax concessions were more widely supported by Labor and Greens voters. Reducing tax concessions for property investors is not any more acceptable for renters than those who own their homes; however, those who own an investment property are less likely to find this option acceptable.
There was considerably weaker support for increasing taxes on businesses, increasing the bank levy, removing GST exemptions, lifting the GST rate, reducing tax concessions for superannuation and increasing personal income taxes.
The results show younger voters aged 18-34, who are often cited by the Treasurer in his push for intergenerational equity, are more resistant to most revenue-raising options than other age groups. One Nation voters are the most likely to find all of the revenue proposals unacceptable, with 26 per cent rejecting all options.
Mr Albanese and Dr Chalmers – who face the growing threat of a global recession, higher inflation and weak economic growth – on Monday will convene the first in a series of rolling meetings of cabinet’s expenditure review committee to determine what makes the cut ahead of the May 12 budget.
Dr Chalmers, who faces a hard sell to introduce new taxes or remove concessions in the budget, is expected to bank a large chunk of multibillion-dollar tax revenue windfalls and unveil plans to rein in ballooning expenditure across the NDIS.
Mr Taylor, who last week released the first phase of the Coalition’s hardline immigration policy, which was attacked by Paul Keating and Labor ministers, suffered a decline in his net approval rating, with 33 per cent of voters satisfied with his performance, 46 per cent dissatisfied and 21 per cent uncommitted.
The Prime Minister appears to have stemmed Labor’s recent electoral bleeding after halving the excise on petrol and diesel for three months at a cost of $2.55bn, releasing a national fuel security plan, delivering a televised statement to the nation, visiting refineries and meeting with Indo-Pacific leaders to shore up supplies.
After crashing last month to his worst net approval rating since last year’s election, Mr Albanese improved slightly to minus-17, with 40 per cent of voters satisfied with his performance, 57 per cent dissatisfied and 3 per cent uncommitted.
Core support for the Greens lifted from 12 per cent to 13 per cent, while the primary vote for independents and other minor parties increased from 10 per cent to 11 per cent.
One Nation has come under pressure on a number of fronts in recent weeks, including revelations the party rehired a convicted rapist. There has also been mounting scrutiny over the price tag of uncosted policy proposals following the unintentional leaking of sensitive draft policy documents to Liberal and Labor MPs.
On who voters think would make the better prime minister, 46 per cent selected Mr Albanese, 37 per cent picked Mr Taylor and 17 per cent were uncommitted.
Before Sussan Ley was rolled as leader and quit parliament in February, the former opposition leader had fallen more than 20 points behind on the better prime minister ranking and the Coalition’s primary vote plunged to a record low of 18 per cent.
MB
I suspect that this link was added to assuage the fears of collaborators that the research would be taken out of context and used for eugenics-like purposes. There is an unfortunate history of this, always used against perceived “others” in the 19th and 20th centuries. Unfortunately it is ongoing in many places.
And thanks for the link to the Science article. My reading has tended towards prehistory lately, with the fascinating new DNA data available.
Some now slightly older, but very still very good, reads by Stephen Oppenheimer, a British paediatrician and geneticist who has worked extensively in south and south-east Asia:
Out of Eden
https://www.hachette.com.au/stephen-oppenheimer/out-of-eden-the-peopling-of-the-world
The origins of the British
https://www.hachette.com.au/stephen-oppenheimer/the-origins-of-the-british-the-new-prehistory-of-britain
Eden in the East (I have not read this one yet, but it is on my list)
https://www.hachette.com.au/stephen-oppenheimer/the-origins-of-the-british-the-new-prehistory-of-britain
I got. a recent one by US geneticist David Reich “Who we are an how we got here”.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35749414-who-we-are-and-how-we-got-here
It is full of really good information, but I was a bit annoyed by the FIGJAM style of writing, and the author’s inability to understand why German colleagues withdrew from a paper that appeared to support Nazi Teutonic racial origins theory. He was also bemused by the fact that Indian collaborators withdrew after some of the genetic claims he made there. I think it is that he was just not able to understand that you can write about topics that have been previously abused, to the detriment of many human populations, but you need a bit more sensitivity. The facts do not change, just the way they are presented.
Anyway, according to Goodreads and the Guardian, everyone else loved it, so maybe I am being overly sensitive.
Another good one I read recently is Proto by Laura Spinney.
https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9780008626549/proto-how-one-ancient-language-went-global/
It is about how Indo-European languages were spread around the world, and I found it fascinating. On the other had, some of the critics really slammed it (it was not obvious to me why).
So, “a chaque son gout”.
Anyway, reading the above works gives a good synthesis of why the subject of race is still so sensitive. , and with good reason when you look at current US and even Australian, politics.
meher baba @ #1075 Sunday, April 19th, 2026 – 7:44 pm
The most recent ‘first contact’ of Australian indigenous persons with white people occurred in 1984 (Pintupi, Western Desert). The earliest British colonists would have no idea what aboriginal culture was like. They were too fixated on killing them, or transporting them to England as ‘specimens’ of savages, and christianising them. As though a particular sky fairy (Aloeah) selected from several others, all invented about 4,000 BCE, by a bunch of middle eastern goat herders, was preferable to some quite wonderful spirits dreamt up by incredibly resilient, ancient hunter gatherers.
GovNerdsays:
Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 8:01 pm
Newspoll just dropped:
================================
We have possibly seen peak Pauline now, happened probably in February. With the MAGA acolyte party suffering from the reflective continual losing of the world’s greatest loser, the demented Don.
Omar Comin’:
Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 7:48 pm
Please stop being a slow learner.
Not sure where ‘in the bin’ comes from. Resolve was one of the better pollsters in 2025, my only comments were restating the State primaries and questioning the ‘Likeability’ question.
Resolve does have some quirks, like no 2PP – but not as bad as Essential in this regard.
Mavis if you could get back to non interactive AI posting that’d be great
Omar Comin’says:
Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 7:48 pm
We got Mavis, can we get MI in on the action too? What about some old friends…
_______________________
I’m with C@t as well.
Hope she comes back sooner rather than later.
Am not entirely blameless myself, but you and BB just went too hard on our C@t.
New thread.
Detailed Newspoll table link here! No paywall. Its the same image you would see in the paper edition tomorrow morning.
https://origin.theaustralian.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/newspoll-2004.pdf
@Entropy
I remember that being a fun movie when I saw it on VHS as a kid although I couldn’t tell you anything that happened in it anymore besides the coke bottle and I have this uncomfortable feeling that any movie from the 80s about an African tribe probably had some horrible racial stereotype jokes in it by modern standards.
Re Entropy @8:05.
I am inclined to agree. Things have changed, with the Middle East War and the change of Liberal leadership. Under Angus Taylor, the Liberals are setting out to steal much of One Nation’s clothes. Further, with the War, things are getting serious.
I think that the Liberals are now saying to their target audience something like “We hate who you hate as much as they do, we also think that climate change is crap, but we’re sensible”, while keeping traditional conservatives and appealing to those who vote with their wallets.
Thank you for the link @Leroy.
Jeez. It took a while, but One Nation has finally peaked and is starting to fall again.
Omar Comin’says:
Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 8:48 am
This place has a dead internet vibe without C@t
===================================
I, for one, think the blog is much better without her.
I suspect I am not Robinson Crusoe.
nadia at 1.11 pm and doyley at 1.36 pm
It was rather dopey of any polling companies to be polling Australians over Easter. Even in the middle of an election campaign in 2025 there was little political interest at Easter.