South Australian election live

Live coverage of the count for the South Australian state election.

Click here for full display of South Australian election results.

I’m otherwise engaged this evening, so won’t be offering anything in the way of live commentary, but hopefully the Poll Bludger live results system will tell you everything you need to know. As well as the main landing platform linked to above there is also a map display that will colour in as results are reported to reflect who the system deems to be ahead or to have won, respectively indicated with a lighter or darker shade.

Each individual seat page comes with projections (which start from assumptions about who the three leading candidates will be, which in some cases I may have to change on the fly if I find time) and results at swings at booth level, displayed in both tabular and mapped form (for the latter, click the “active” button at the bottom of the page). As always, I’m crossing my fingers hoping this will all work okay. I have made life harder for myself by implementing a new method for determining win probabilities, which would ideally have been rolled out at a less complicated election. Hopefully its errors will be on the side of caution – a may implement some rather crude fudges on the fly to make it so if that doesn’t seem to be what’s happening.

This will be a landmark election night so far as the Electoral Commission of South Australia’s reporting of the results is concerned, as early voting centres will be counted on the night for the first time (though experience suggest some of them will handle too many votes for them to finish the job before the close of business). What were formerly reported in one line as “declaration votes” will now be reported at an appropriate level of complexity – early voting centres no longer count as declaration votes, and will be reported on a location by location basis, and the rest will for the first time be reported separately as postals, absents and the best. This complicated matters for those of us who need to produce datasets of previous election results to match against those that will be reported tonight for swing calculation purposes, but is undoubtedly a welcome development in the long run.

An added layer of challenge lies in the fact that the ECSA offers no indication as to which candidates it has selected for the notional two-candidate preferred counts, which are usually provided to the media on a confidential basis. A couple of seat pages are in fact not working as they should be because one of my tables says one thing about who the candidates will be another one says another, but I believe I’ve geared things so it will correct itself when the appropriate candidates can be identified. If however individual seat results pages continue to misfire, the likeliest explanation (though my no means the only one possible) will have something to do with this issue. In an ideal world I would be free to patch things together, but as it stands I will be otherwise engaged, so it’s a question of fingers crossed.

Naturally all of this involved a vast amount of unpaid work, so if you believe that situation should be rectified, your donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

629 thoughts on “South Australian election live”

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  1. Ruston finally said something substantive: the Libs need to return to being a centre-right party.

    She’ll be lucky to retain her slot on the Lib Senate ticket next time around with that kind of attitude.

  2. The press should just F&&k off & let the Premier make his public address.

    They are just bottom dwellers too interested in blood sports.

  4. Kirsdarke @ #490 Saturday, March 21st, 2026 – 10:07 pm

    Also pretty stoked about Labor flipping Unley for some vague reason.

    Maybe the demographics? I don’t know at this point.

    It probably would have been flipped at the last election but its member, David Pisoni, who has a lot of personal popularity in the seat, decided to stay for one more term and likely was the reason it stayed blue.

  5. Serious question for One Nation: if they get more people elected in the lower house than in the upper house (currently 4-2), who gets to be leader? It’s not automatically Bernardi.

  7. Rebeccasays:
    Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 10:02 pm
    I mean, to be fair to Hurn, there were serious people suggesting that the Libs getting zero seats was a possibility, and instead she’s kept One Nation to zero seats and kept the damage to a few seats.

    She was on a hiding to nothing and she’s probably done quite a bit for them compared to if they’d let Tarzia take them off a cliff entirely.

    Rebecca
    2/3rd of Libs funding went into 3 seats. Leader seat, Deputy leader seat and Bragg and 44 other seats got 1/3 of Libs funding.
    Libs preferenced ON above Labor by PHON did not reciprocate. They left it open.

  15. Ashton Hurn is a true Liberal. And I mean that as a compliment. They should build the SA Liberal Party around her and more like her. It’s the only way that the Liberals can survive. Alex and the Antic faction should do the right thing and go home to ON.

  18. “The Decline: The Liberal party’s worst ever losses (so far)
    Once, it dominated Australian politics for decades. By the end of the day, the Liberal party may have suffered a defeat that leaves it on the brink of extinction.”

    From the Adelaide Advertiser. Sky News After Dark, Credlin and Abbott have done the best job to destroy the LNP and still don’t learn a thing.

  19. Someone from the ABC needs to properly white balance their cameras at Labor HQ. Labor Red is looking very orange tonight…

    Looks red on my plasma.

  20. There’s still a lot of votes to be counted tonight. It looks like only around 40% of votes have been counted so far, and ECSA will be counting until 1am apparently.

  21. “Ashton Hurn is a true Liberal. And I mean that as a compliment. They should build the SA Liberal Party around her and more like her. It’s the only way that the Liberals can survive. Alex and the Antic faction should do the right thing and go home to ON.”

    100%

  23. ABC shows Fraser Ellis dropping out of 2pp in Narungga and Tony Piccolo dropping out of the 2pp in Ngadjuri. Both seats now have LIB vs ONP 2pp.

  24. “Ashton Hurn is a true Liberal. And I mean that as a compliment. They should build the SA Liberal Party around her and more like her. It’s the only way that the Liberals can survive. Alex and the Antic faction should do the right thing and go home to ON.”

    “100%”

    +1

  25. “Alex and the Antic faction should do the right thing and go home to ON.”

    They will wait to see what happens in the Vic election.

  26. meanwhile Trump serves first course of Taco..
    NYT
    Iran War Live Updates: U.S. Lifts Sanctions on Iranian Oil as War Enters Fourth Week
    The move reversed earlier efforts to impose “maximum pressure” on the country and reflected how little success the Trump administration has achieved in calming global markets.

  28. Asha @ #478 Saturday, March 21st, 2026 – 10:30 pm

    Have any prepolls come in yet?

    Asha, from Kevin Bonham

    Notably in the two seats with prepolls in, the swing against the Liberals on prepoll is lower than the booth swing. We may yet see the Liberals overtake One Nation on primaries. This by the way is why I have not yet moved Morphett to assumed win for Labor.

    9:40 Prepolls have been counted in Schubert and Ashton Hurn has won hugely there. Very impressive in resisting the ON surge.

  29. So it looks like people’s predictions of no One Nation seats were wrong. I wonder how this would translate to polling on the federal level?

  30. So it seems like ON are still a Queensland-based cult of personality party basically. Do they not have a leader of the party in SA?
    I also predict that Cory Bernardi won’t last the distance.

  32. From the Tiser

    “This was the election where the forgotten people rose up to vent their dissatisfaction and only Labor could withstand the orange wave.”

    FFS. Are they really the forgotten people?

  33. Unfortunately, politically speaking, Ashton Hurn’s career is at the wrong time. She is very much in the mold of Liberals like Steele Hall, Dean Brown and Steven Marshall – which is not something the Right wants right now. A decade ago, she’d be a real threat. Now it seems more like she’s a vestige.

  34. ON have been getting pampered by the Liberals for decades, they’re the exact opposite of forgotten. The media act like the rural area has 90% of the population when it’s the other way around.

  38. “Do they not have a leader of the party in SA?”

    Mali said that Pauline Hanson was but now that they have two to five sitting members one of them will be.

  39. Well, Malinauskas has just disappointed me with his patriotism. Also, his many quotes of other people instead of his own. Patriotism stops you of seeing things that are or could be wrong with our Country.

  40. “We need legislation limiting victory speech times.”
    It already exists but it forces the Premier to talk for 2 minutes per seat his party won.

  42. Now that the LC numbers are getting closer to 10% they’re starting to look a little bit better. Obviously, still too early in the count to make any call and once postals are counted, it might move things to the Right but, as it stands the “Six Left, Five Right” split looks more likely.

  43. The Liberals encouraged prefs for No Notion. They are idiots. No Notion constitute an existential threat to the Liberals. No Notion should be ranked dead last. The Liberals, in this as in so many other ways, invite destruction in the front door. Once gone they will not be missed.

  44. I just found out that my 84yo Mum was watching the SA election too. She’s a big Cory Bernardi fan, used to donate to his party. She was probably hopeful that Pauline Hanson would beat Labor. She’s that delulu. Lol.

  47. Thanks, Dio. I would have thought that the President of the ON party in SA would be the talking head. Who would likely have been one of their candidates too.

  48. We talked about sport.

    Mali talks a lot about his amateur football days
    Ashton Hurn talks a lot about her brother and being at the AIS for netball
    Cory was an Olympic rower

    Sport has been a big part of these leaders lives.

  49. When Malinauskas talks about patriotism, he is talking to migrate Australians, it’s a smart strategy pushing back against PHON.

  50. Kavel: five candidates between 12% and 24%. That one’s gonna require some coffee in the morning to deal with.

    McBride seems to be fading away in MacKillop. He’s on 15% with about 15% counted, and the only party he can rely on preferences from, One Nation, are way out in front. A way to go but it looks like ON vs Lib here.

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