Click here for full display of South Australian election results.
I’m otherwise engaged this evening, so won’t be offering anything in the way of live commentary, but hopefully the Poll Bludger live results system will tell you everything you need to know. As well as the main landing platform linked to above there is also a map display that will colour in as results are reported to reflect who the system deems to be ahead or to have won, respectively indicated with a lighter or darker shade.
Each individual seat page comes with projections (which start from assumptions about who the three leading candidates will be, which in some cases I may have to change on the fly if I find time) and results at swings at booth level, displayed in both tabular and mapped form (for the latter, click the “active” button at the bottom of the page). As always, I’m crossing my fingers hoping this will all work okay. I have made life harder for myself by implementing a new method for determining win probabilities, which would ideally have been rolled out at a less complicated election. Hopefully its errors will be on the side of caution – a may implement some rather crude fudges on the fly to make it so if that doesn’t seem to be what’s happening.
This will be a landmark election night so far as the Electoral Commission of South Australia’s reporting of the results is concerned, as early voting centres will be counted on the night for the first time (though experience suggest some of them will handle too many votes for them to finish the job before the close of business). What were formerly reported in one line as “declaration votes” will now be reported at an appropriate level of complexity – early voting centres no longer count as declaration votes, and will be reported on a location by location basis, and the rest will for the first time be reported separately as postals, absents and the best. This complicated matters for those of us who need to produce datasets of previous election results to match against those that will be reported tonight for swing calculation purposes, but is undoubtedly a welcome development in the long run.
An added layer of challenge lies in the fact that the ECSA offers no indication as to which candidates it has selected for the notional two-candidate preferred counts, which are usually provided to the media on a confidential basis. A couple of seat pages are in fact not working as they should be because one of my tables says one thing about who the candidates will be another one says another, but I believe I’ve geared things so it will correct itself when the appropriate candidates can be identified. If however individual seat results pages continue to misfire, the likeliest explanation (though my no means the only one possible) will have something to do with this issue. In an ideal world I would be free to patch things together, but as it stands I will be otherwise engaged, so it’s a question of fingers crossed.
Naturally all of this involved a vast amount of unpaid work, so if you believe that situation should be rectified, your donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post.
Poll Bludger has given Narungga to One Nation.
Byelection interesting.
Victorians, this orange plague is coming to you.
“When Malinauskas talks about patriotism, he is playing to migrate Australians, it’s a smart strategy pushing back against PHON.”
Which is everyone in the country who doesn’t have indigenous heritage.
Labor failed to stop one nation from getting 20% of the vote in SA.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 11:08 pm
C@t is your mum Catholic ?
I think my big take away from this result is the results across metro Adelaide…..huge swings to Labor…..double digit swings. Its not just seat numbers its margins as well. Most of the Adelaide seats will be sitting on almost unassailable margins……I think this bears out what I have mentioned in a few comments on the SA threads, that what happens in the city is paramount as its Adelaide….and very little else. If the Libs, Right Indis and No Notion want to fight and canabalise themselves in rural SA….go right ahead. Adelaide is Red from top to bottom…and Bragg is a marginal seat FFS
Pied Piper
Biggest clutched straw of the night.
Anyone who thought that speech was about unfettered patriotism and not multiculturalism wasn’t listening at all. It was a repudiation of nativism and xenophobia as being basically un-Australian.
Liberals failed to stop one nation from getting 20% of the vote and some of their seats in SA.
Thomas Brian Mutter says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 11:17 pm
SA election commission gives it to Libs .. 52%
ON ZERO
pied piper @ #551 Saturday, March 21st, 2026 – 10:50 pm
“Labor sure have failed at getting the ball between these goal posts I’ve strategically placed!”
Until we start getting the right 2CP count in the weird three-header races I wouldn’t be calling them for anyone.
We will see about that.
Hey Pied wouldn’t a better line be…Liberals lost almost half their vote to One Nation.
Labor increased their primary and seats.
Winning.
Pp .. still wetting its pants, as Donald diaper for a spare
Pauline failed to show one nation getting 20% of the vote in SA means a hill of beans to the outcome for anyone but the Liberal party.
Is it safe to say Tony Piccolo has lost his campaign in Ngadjuri?
2 seats now. Narungga and Ngadjuri according to Poll Bludger.
Shiftaling
I am one of those great multicultural people, and I have been here 76 years. Mali used Patriotism too many times. In my experience, it’s patriotism that racists use. That is, I also know that it is not what Mali meant in his speech. The word “patriotism” always makes me cringe.
Bludgeoned Westie @ #564 Saturday, March 21st, 2026 – 10:59 pm
I do have to tip my hat to Piccolo. He could’ve stayed in Light and coasted to an easy victory but he decided to migrate over to a long shot in Ngadjuri.
Probably, but who knows. Probably only know once the full distribution is done given it is so hard to determine who the final 2 will be.
His point was the different people can be patriotic in different ways and One Nation do not represent all patriotic Australians.
@Wat Tyler says: Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 11:33 pm
“I do have to tip my hat to Piccolo. He could’ve stayed in Light and coasted to an easy victory but he decided to migrate over to a long shot in Ngadjuri.”
~~~~
I always got the sense that Piccolo wanted to retire sometime this decade and have a generational change within the caucus, but decided do it in a way which would’ve benefitted Labor by maximising the party’s chances in Ngadjuri. His loss and probably retirement might be a blow to Malinauskas though.
SAVotersays:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 11:01 pm
What a speech!! Finally!!!
YES, YES, YES!!
___________________________
Take it easy. We’re not making a Western here.
More from MacKillop now, McBride now below 13% (fourth behind Labor) and looking pretty gone.
Nicholson (21.0%) could win from third on current numbers. She wouldn’t need that many Green prefs (7.2%) to stay ahead of Labor (17.7%), then surf Labor prefs ahead of Libs (24.0%) and/or One Nation (22.9%), and probably wins from there. Potentially yet another Ind/ON 2cp.
Sceptic,
Yes my Mum is Catholic. Our family has Irish Catholic heritage. However, her patron saints were Alan Jones and John Howard. 🙂
Her father was in the Communist Party!
There’s nowt as queer as family.
3 seats now.
Both Narungga and Ngadjuri could have Labor preferences electing Liberals over One Nation.
Muskiemp, I see it as an attempt to reclaim the word to represent the best in us rather than the worst, to undermine the sinister narrative that’s gaining traction due to adverse times.
And what of the National implications of the result. Labor are still strong, the Libs are in deep poo, the Nats not long for this world. If Sydney Melbourne Perth and even Brisbane can respond as Adelaide city dwellers to the horrific prospects of ON, then all is right with the world…..lets the remnants fight over Murray or Mallee or Farrer where ever the F they are…..Labor will hold the capitals in a stranglehold
C@tmomma: Listen to your mother. Even relatively elderly adult children could heed that advice.
If Ashton Hurn and Anne Ruston really want a “centre-right” party as defined by the woke media, then they are welcome to form their own party, perhaps with the Teals.
The future of non-Labor politics in Australia is a consolidated Right with Antic and other conservative Liberals joining ON to form a new major party based on economic laissez-faire policies, gutting the welfare state, abolishing multiculturalism, fiscal responsobility / austerity and a return to family values. And no wastage on renewables, vanity projects and rainbow serpents.
I expect Piccolo to lose Ngadjuri to PHON on Liberal preferences.
Still not convinced about Narungga. Way too many assumptions about preference flows given the candidates running there.
Next project for a pseph is to map the ON votes over the SA federal seat boundaries and see what it looks like. Not that it will be prescriptive but it may be educational.
There is a disparity between William and ABC on a couple of seats William’s modelling is giving them to ON and the ABC the Libs. It really will come down to which two make the cut and then how preferences flow.
My gut tells me if ON need a decent flow of Labor preferences they will miss out.
These could take a while to sort.
Timmy
The sooner Antic and his followers go to PHON the better, they then have to choose where they direct preferences. The Liberal Party has never been anti welfare state.
Surely the most likely scenario is One Nation encouraging a couple of defections from the Liberals and Independents so they can become the official opposition. They could dangle the chance to be leader of the opposition in the House as a carrot.
Ok, OK, I may have misinterpreted what Mali said, and I will accept other commentators’ interpretation. But again, it was great to see so many young ALP faces at Mali’s acceptance speech.
Timmy I’m too tired to challenge that codswallop. Except to observe that one of my mother’s family values was that she always cleaned her own floors. Even if they were affected by overflowing sullage.
It’s called self-sufficency and elbow grease. You should try it sometime if you want to get down with the True Blue Aussies.
“ The future of non-Labor politics in Australia is a consolidated Right with Antic and other conservative Liberals joining ON”
Do it because this broad church thing isn’t working. And while you’re at it, a few policies and responsibilities governing in the real world might help.
“abolishing multiculturalism”
Turban bans for everyone! No more Saint Patrick’s Day. Or 4th of July for the Yanks. How far do we go? Banning succulent Chinese meals?
davidwh, disparity in Heysen as well. Tough seat to call but I am backing Labor just to hold on in a very close three way fight.
MacKillop looking very bad for the Liberals, 14% behind PHON on first preferences. Barring McBride’s voters favouring the Libs very strongly that is looking like a PHON pickup.
No more Chinese New Year.
May Timmy’s combined Conservative Party be destined to forever remain in opposition. A Liberal Party that throws away its heart is destined to be a shallow shadow.
I can live with a TEAL party if that’s what it comes to.
Australia under both Labor and Coalition governments have never been that shallow party described by Timmy.
Federal politics. Grey and Barker would be possible PHON wins.
SA Voter at 11.01 pm, yabba at 11.05 pm, Cat at 11.08 pm, Landlord of the Year at 11.17 pm, Ghost of Whitlam at 11.18 pm and Shiftaling at 11.22 pm
Yes, Malinauskas made a great speech, which Senator Ruston genuinely acknowledged.
It was carefully crafted, very well delivered, intelligent, and both subtle and strong.
We can evaluate that victory speech as probably the best one delivered by an Australian politician for a very long time. The anecdote from the voting queue was very apposite. The poem by Lawson was very appropriate, and very well read.
The contrast with Turnbull’s rambling rant almost ten years ago was revealing. Whereas Turnbull could not accept that he wasn’t a genius, Malinauskas knew how to speak well, not just to a broad audience, but how to frame his victory in an inclusive way, which put the Hanson cult in perspective as a ugly lot of merchants of division.
Malinauskas knew he would win easily. He made the most of it with a clever speech, that was both powerful and humble.
Cat, my 98 y.o. Mum insisted on getting up coincidentally just before Malinauskas arrived at the Labor gathering, so she appreciated the speech and “a very good result”.
Timmy at 11.43pm tells us that along with conservative Libs, ON will restore family values.
Timmy, can you give a list of the family values that need to be reinstated?
Mali’s speech would want to have been good, he’s been working on it for about two and half years
ECSA site showing Nationals at 0.1% of the vote in the lower house, 0.5% in the upper.
Cat at 11.46 pm
The next federal election is almost two years away, March 2028 at the earliest, so there is no need for such a mapping exercise. Most of the Hanson cult vote remains a protest from people who have no idea which level of government is responsible for doing what.
The one surprise was that, according to C. Briggs on the ABC coverage, the Hanson cult vote in metro Adelaide was higher than in the regions, because the Lib vote collapsed so much in Adelaide. That point reinforces the self-marginalisation of the Libs in the cities.
What would have made the run for second place more interesting would have been Mr X coming out of the woodwork for another exercise in self-promotion.