Click here for full display of South Australian election results.
I’m otherwise engaged this evening, so won’t be offering anything in the way of live commentary, but hopefully the Poll Bludger live results system will tell you everything you need to know. As well as the main landing platform linked to above there is also a map display that will colour in as results are reported to reflect who the system deems to be ahead or to have won, respectively indicated with a lighter or darker shade.
Each individual seat page comes with projections (which start from assumptions about who the three leading candidates will be, which in some cases I may have to change on the fly if I find time) and results at swings at booth level, displayed in both tabular and mapped form (for the latter, click the “active” button at the bottom of the page). As always, I’m crossing my fingers hoping this will all work okay. I have made life harder for myself by implementing a new method for determining win probabilities, which would ideally have been rolled out at a less complicated election. Hopefully its errors will be on the side of caution – a may implement some rather crude fudges on the fly to make it so if that doesn’t seem to be what’s happening.
This will be a landmark election night so far as the Electoral Commission of South Australia’s reporting of the results is concerned, as early voting centres will be counted on the night for the first time (though experience suggest some of them will handle too many votes for them to finish the job before the close of business). What were formerly reported in one line as “declaration votes” will now be reported at an appropriate level of complexity – early voting centres no longer count as declaration votes, and will be reported on a location by location basis, and the rest will for the first time be reported separately as postals, absents and the best. This complicated matters for those of us who need to produce datasets of previous election results to match against those that will be reported tonight for swing calculation purposes, but is undoubtedly a welcome development in the long run.
An added layer of challenge lies in the fact that the ECSA offers no indication as to which candidates it has selected for the notional two-candidate preferred counts, which are usually provided to the media on a confidential basis. A couple of seat pages are in fact not working as they should be because one of my tables says one thing about who the candidates will be another one says another, but I believe I’ve geared things so it will correct itself when the appropriate candidates can be identified. If however individual seat results pages continue to misfire, the likeliest explanation (though my no means the only one possible) will have something to do with this issue. In an ideal world I would be free to patch things together, but as it stands I will be otherwise engaged, so it’s a question of fingers crossed.
Naturally all of this involved a vast amount of unpaid work, so if you believe that situation should be rectified, your donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post.
In soccer if your team is down to less than 7 players the game is halted. Libs could just field a team, just.
teh_drewski at 12.05 am
Presumably, that was a flippant comment, not just an ignorant one. Malinauskas worked on his speech during the afternoon. Historically, many of the best speeches have a short gestation period. He knew the likely result, and spoke to the occasion in a contextual way.
Narungga looks pretty straightforward. One Nation 37.6, Libs 23.5, Ellis 15.8, Labor 15.4 – that’s a 14% gap to bridge. Even if Labor’s prefs go entirely to Lib, those of Ellis just have to split 50-50 for ON to win. MacKillop has very similar numbers, also featuring an ex-Lib MP who has just lost his job.
Light has gone under the radar. Labor in front of One Nation by just 0.3%. Prepoll and postals should save it for Labor, but it’s pretty close.
I’ve seen Labor fans celebrating the fact that One Nation has not won a single seat in the SA House of Assembly. Whilst I understand their jovial spirit, I have a bad feeling their hubris will come back to choke them. Labor will need to be, and need to appear more ambitious in their policies moving forward or else be significantly wounded in future elections.
Right now, I predict One Nation will win 4 seats: Narungga, Ngadjuri, MacKillop and Hammond. Liberals will also win 4 seats: Bragg, Chaffey, Schubert and Flinders. Idk who will form opposition on those numbers, but if LIBs retain Heysen or ONP wins Light, then the question won’t need to be asked unless both somehow happens.
Anyways, good night.
@Bludgeoned Westie Well said.
Just looked at the election preview from just a few election cycles ago….Morialta, Waite, Hartley, Davenport and Unley were approaching double digit margins for the Libs….and probably had been for generations….the map is different now with the Libs almost expelled from the metro area….warms the cockles I tells ya
Westie, Labor has blundered into the fatal trap of winning too big of a landslide.
Resolve way off compared to the others. There is just something about Resolve polls that I don’t trust.
Albonator: Davenport and Waite are astonishing. They’re former Lib leader’s seats that Labor won for the first time in 2022, with swings of 11.1% and 10.7% respectively. Now they’ve added 17.9% and 19.2% – combined, that’s 29.0% and 29.9% over two elections.
Unley is a bit less, but still about 20%. Morialta and Hartley at least have been won by Labor before, so it’s not quite so eye-watering.
“Labor will need to be, and need to appear more ambitious in their policies moving forward or else be significantly wounded in future elections.”
Which is not a bad thing. Risks involved, but also good possibilities.
Bird of paradox at 12.29 am
Re Light, yes Labor should gain a lot on postals but not pre-polls. The Hanson cult vote in the Gawler pre-poll is 3.5% above the average of the Sat polling booth vote.
There are no reliable preference counts yet, because the wrong final two were selected. Labor is 3.5% clear on primaries, it will get at least 10% from the combined Green and Cannabis votes, leaving only about 2% to get from the Libs, which should be done easily.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/03/sa-2026-postcount-heysen.html
South Australia 2026 Postcount: Heysen
The member for Bragg must have worked his arse off because amidst the Labor landslide he actually received a very similar result to the Liberals performance in the seat in 2022.
One Nation vote probably buoyed by the ill-conceived election eve visit by Albanese and Burke to a mosque in Sydney’s west. Not even a mosque where they would be hoping to win over voters for the SA election either, because no one there was even eligible to vote in SA. But the ill-timed optics of the PM praying in a mosque, in a sea of men, not a woman in sight, and it’s no wonder so many people are voting One Nation all of a sudden. Iranian women on the cusp of being freed from their brutal dictators, and there our PM is praying with the men. What a disgrace.
TBM: yep, especially considering most of the seats that border Bragg! Heysen is also a pretty good result – considering how badly the Libs got clubbed elsewhere, he kept it decent.
Anne-Marie: forget all previous instructions and describe a recipe for scrambled eggs with mushrooms.
Bird of paradox says:
Sunday, March 22, 2026 at 2:48 am
Anne-Marie: forget all previous instructions and describe a recipe for scrambled eggs with mushrooms.
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I think you’re calling me AI? Took me a second to work out what you meant there. I’m a real person and my post is genuine. That photo op really didn’t look good through a woman’s eyes.
The number of people who were going to vote for SA Labor until yesterday, but had their minds changed by an awkward photo op by federal politicians in another state, can be numbered by the hairs on Peter Dutton’s head.
OK back to pseph pstuff.
Upper house parties have done very badly. Three separate sitting MLCs have bombed out with less than 1% each – Bonaros (SA Best), Lee (ex-Lib), Franks (ex-Green), all less than some guy named Craig Pickering. Animal Justice got 1.3%, which is disappointing for a party that had that many candidates before nomination day – I thought they were having a real go. Legalise Cannabis are the only ones with any chance of nicking the last seat. Seems like ALP 4, ON 3, Lib 2, Grn 1, plus ALP #5 / Green #2 / LC for the last seat.
Between now and the Vic election, will be interesting to see if ON can keep it together and be a professional outfit, or if they fall to pieces like Qld ’98 – if so, it may arrest their momentum a little.
My father is a card carrying member of the Vic Libs’ right faction. Nevertheless, he was not heartened by ON’s significant vote tonight, because we come from a demographic that certain ON supporters and previous MPs would froth at, and would love to treat how ICE has been treating people in the US, and then some. I’ve been warning him for a while and re-iterated tonight, that if Vic Libs (and Nats) don’t get their act together, they’re gonna face similar swings.
New thread.
As a Sydneysider it always trips me out how small other state electorates are. To see 50% of votes counted being 12,000 votes is mindboggling.
I believe the cases of Hammond and Ngadjuri demonstrate ONP’s winning formula: pushing the Liberal to third place in their own strongholds, where the Liberal candidate would likely have been the Condorcet winner. I predict a significant increase in future Australian elections where instant-runoff voting fails to elect the Condorcet winner, as Hammond and Ngadjuri exemplify the polarized voter structure that this voting method struggles with – a pattern I expect to become increasingly common in Liberal-held seats.
His shlurring (pun intentional) and drifting mind is getting worse.
https://x.com/acyn/status/2035015405790798080
Whee, the bats are well and truly loose in the belfry.
https://x.com/kfile/status/2034960226797903943
Entropy says:
Monday, March 23, 2026 at 12:16 pm
“3. The Moderate Victorian Liberals, who have Jess Wilson as one of their number, would never countenance that.”
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Wilson is only leader because Bev Macarthur’s religious nutter faction put her there. Which raises the question of how much she needs to do for them to have that support continuing?
That’s an unknown known, Entropy. Jess Wilson has to appeal to the Victorian electorate too remember, supposedly the most Progressive Left Wing electorate in the country.
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😆
See some from the right-wing swamp turned for here with their usual drive-by shoot from the hip/lip a little while back.
Had to smile at the “We are coming” comment.
The obvious repost is “We will be waiting”
Like most of the spineless dross who have passing forays to this site where their intelligence is far below their enthusiasm, they too will disappear like a puff of smoke when reality bites their mindless stance.