Click here for full display of South Australian election results.
I’m otherwise engaged this evening, so won’t be offering anything in the way of live commentary, but hopefully the Poll Bludger live results system will tell you everything you need to know. As well as the main landing platform linked to above there is also a map display that will colour in as results are reported to reflect who the system deems to be ahead or to have won, respectively indicated with a lighter or darker shade.
Each individual seat page comes with projections (which start from assumptions about who the three leading candidates will be, which in some cases I may have to change on the fly if I find time) and results at swings at booth level, displayed in both tabular and mapped form (for the latter, click the “active” button at the bottom of the page). As always, I’m crossing my fingers hoping this will all work okay. I have made life harder for myself by implementing a new method for determining win probabilities, which would ideally have been rolled out at a less complicated election. Hopefully its errors will be on the side of caution – a may implement some rather crude fudges on the fly to make it so if that doesn’t seem to be what’s happening.
This will be a landmark election night so far as the Electoral Commission of South Australia’s reporting of the results is concerned, as early voting centres will be counted on the night for the first time (though experience suggest some of them will handle too many votes for them to finish the job before the close of business). What were formerly reported in one line as “declaration votes” will now be reported at an appropriate level of complexity – early voting centres no longer count as declaration votes, and will be reported on a location by location basis, and the rest will for the first time be reported separately as postals, absents and the best. This complicated matters for those of us who need to produce datasets of previous election results to match against those that will be reported tonight for swing calculation purposes, but is undoubtedly a welcome development in the long run.
An added layer of challenge lies in the fact that the ECSA offers no indication as to which candidates it has selected for the notional two-candidate preferred counts, which are usually provided to the media on a confidential basis. A couple of seat pages are in fact not working as they should be because one of my tables says one thing about who the candidates will be another one says another, but I believe I’ve geared things so it will correct itself when the appropriate candidates can be identified. If however individual seat results pages continue to misfire, the likeliest explanation (though my no means the only one possible) will have something to do with this issue. In an ideal world I would be free to patch things together, but as it stands I will be otherwise engaged, so it’s a question of fingers crossed.
Naturally all of this involved a vast amount of unpaid work, so if you believe that situation should be rectified, your donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post.
“Sick of the status quo.”
Which is why they voted in gigantic numbers for Labor? Delusional.
Has Ashton Hurn ever had a real job in her entire life.. likewise her husband who seems to have only been a pr for Pyne … has any Liberal ever had a real job?
A surprisingly jubilant Liberal function there compared to their other comprehensive losses. Maybe Hurn really does inspire one to back the boys, give 110% and get over the line at the end of day because the scoreboard doesn’t lie
Greens 225 behind Labor in Heysen, Animal Justice has 291 which could help. One Nation preferences will decide who finishes 2nd though and hopefully goes on to win
As dismal a result as this is for the Liberals, they have at least saved a few pieces of furniture, retained their leaders’ seat, and look like they will remain the official result. Its not much, but its better than what many were expecting going into this. They do at least have a shot, however small it may seem right now, at regaining government next election.
Teague was a lawyer. Does that count as a real job?
ON volunteers filling in the HTV cards is disgraceful
teh_drewski
She views a lot of things through a sports lens. I suppose with her brother and her being an Australian level netballer. Lot of working hard and believing in yourself.
Mali can’t be complacent though. He hasn’t won 100% of the seats.
One Nation still zero seats.
Checking in after the Tillies game this all looks like it is going about as well as could be hoped? ON slightly under projections and will likely win a couple it appears from PB projections but not just winning all the Lib seats wholesale? Labor gaining? Am I missing anything?
You’re the experts but your algorithm seems much more likely to give ONP wins that I would. I don’t anticipate them getting significant preferences in the 2pp contests v Liberals.
I’ve had enough. Time for book or a podcast.
I’m calling it for Teague. He works the oldies, and they love a bit of ‘im. He’ll get there on postals and early voting.
Diogenes says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 10:14 pm
Sport is not a real job.. its an occupation for people that never grow up
Well, I’m happy with the result in Davenport at least, my aunt lives there and it seems the seat has moved from marginal to solid Labor.
Lib still making “protest vote against both parties” excuse.
@ghost of Whitlam
Liberals had a 15.9% swing against them. None of that went to Labor, who had a 2.4% swing against.
How is that not a repudiation of the status quo?
Dazsays:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 10:16 pm
You’re the experts but your algorithm seems much more likely to give ONP wins that I would.
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It is William Bowe’s algorithm, the rest of the commentators on here are visitors just like you.
Tom Koutsantonis keeps kicking it out of the park..
Rebecca: I’m going off PB results. Greens were ahead but now it’s flipped back – they must’ve hit a good booth.
Currently: Lib 2pp (against Labor) 50.4%, and the 3cp is Lib 42.4 ALP 28.9 Grn 28.7. It doesn’t get closer than that – ultra-marginal in two different ways. Reminds me of the first time the Greens won Prahran.
Kouts won’t accept there are any lessons for Labor.
A few percent of Labor going to Greens & Animal Justice or LC in the face of a gigantic landslide victory isn’t a repudiation.
Sceptic
That would be news to professionals.
The ‘status quo’ is the Malinauskas Labor Government. It has been overwhelmingly re-elected. It has largely held its primary vote from the last election. I’d call that an endorsement.
Voice Endeavour says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 10:19 pm
We have a preferential voting system.. when push comes to shove & the voters have their “final “ say.. it’s a landslide to Labor..period.
Landlord of the Year says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 10:22 pm
They are just part of a system that has no end of bludgeons promoting the players for no other reason reason than having a job looking after them .. how many water bottle carriers does a team need.
Not to mention gambling companies
Kouts now explaining that many young Australians don’t have aerials connected as if that is somehow a big revelation.
Kirsdarke: Davenport and Waite (next door to each other, gained with big swings in 2022) have the biggest swings of any seat that stayed as ALP/Lib, a ludicrous 18%. Nice work to your aunt and her neighbours.
By the way: there’s currently 20 seats out of 47 showing a vanilla ALP/Lib 2pp. Actually more non-classic than classic seats. Say goodnight to the pendulum.
The Greens are too far behind in Heysen now to catch up on AJP preferences unless they can narrow that gap with the last four booths. I don’t see it – I think they’re done.
Also saying Labor party is discipline.
When the Libs have lost literally half their primary, to try and act like Labor (coming from a landslide victory) losing a very small amount of primary means an equal “protest against both major parties” is dishonest.
The Libs have been half eaten by ON. Labor like any comfortable landslide government would expect to has lost a small amount of paint. They are not the same.
This is like Labor gaining in the 2025 Federal while the Liberals lost ground, and certain people trying to paint that as “the duopoly” losing ground overall.
Oh God.
Cory rang Mali to concede.
I would have let Cory go to voicemail.
Have any prepolls come in yet?
Q: Kouts won’t accept there are any lessons for Labor.
It is hardly the question of the night…after Landslide 2.0
Peter Malinauskas… appears to drive a EV family mover..
Malinauskas became my favourite Labor leader after hearing him on the rest is politics, he is impressive and speaks with passion and vision.
Cory rang Mali to concede.
+++
He’s in the Upper House (likely) what right does he have to be conceding to a Premier?
Who is the putative ‘woodabeen’ Premier ‘down below’ for One Neuron?
Keeping it more real than snoop dogg in the last 10 minutes.
Liberal values! *drink*
Still no explanation about what those are.
MacKillop still looks baffling to me.
Nick McBride, as an ex-Liberal independent MP facing criminal charges for domestic violence, is in third and 6.6% behind the Libs. Would Labor (12.2%) and Greens (4%) preferences really flow so strongly to McBride to let him catch up 6.6%, vault over the Liberal, and then beat One Nation on Liberal preferences? Did Labor and the Greens actually preference McBride in the circumstances?
I have no idea what it is about South Australia that voters seem to like re-electing MPs facing criminal charges.
As a busy Cave dweller I haven’t been able to follow the count. Have I been mislead? I thought Hanson’s Horribles were going to take it up to the ALP as a stepping stone to Hanson and Joyce forming the next Federal Government. Now the PB Bloggers are saying they are yet to win a single seat. Obviously Australian Voters are smarter than we think.
ON Cory Benardi didn’t have the balls to run for a lower house seat.. Pauleen is looking for them in her purse
Experts predicted 0 seats for ON earlier in the week
My favorite part of every election is where late-arriving postals swing it massively for ON (or liberals in the past) and everyone acts surprised.
I’ll wait until all votes are counted and preferences completely distributed (including from the postals) before I start breaking down exactly what the situation is and where there are long term implications, if any.
Also pretty stoked for some vague reason about Labor flipping Unley.
Maybe the demographics? I don’t know at this point.
@Rebecca says: Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 10:35 pm
MacKillop still looks baffling to me.
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MacKillop got jealous of Kiama
LC:
4.7%
35.5 – 4.26
ON 24.3 – 2.92
LIB 17.9 – 2.15
GRN 11.1 – 1.33
LC 2.6 – 0.31
FF 2.1 – 0.25
Anne Ruston’s tawny/chestnut rinse is something i have always admired as being very natural looking.
Not sure the lesson to take away from tonight is “well its ok that ON is becoming the dominant right wing party because this isnt being reflected in the seats at a state level election” as opposed to “hey, this was the first chance to test polling in the field and it turns out that the traditional ON mirage may no longer be in play”
SA is so provincial. Why are you trying to interview him as he is walking to make his victory speech? You don’t see that elsewhere