Click here for full display of South Australian election results.
I’m otherwise engaged this evening, so won’t be offering anything in the way of live commentary, but hopefully the Poll Bludger live results system will tell you everything you need to know. As well as the main landing platform linked to above there is also a map display that will colour in as results are reported to reflect who the system deems to be ahead or to have won, respectively indicated with a lighter or darker shade.
Each individual seat page comes with projections (which start from assumptions about who the three leading candidates will be, which in some cases I may have to change on the fly if I find time) and results at swings at booth level, displayed in both tabular and mapped form (for the latter, click the “active” button at the bottom of the page). As always, I’m crossing my fingers hoping this will all work okay. I have made life harder for myself by implementing a new method for determining win probabilities, which would ideally have been rolled out at a less complicated election. Hopefully its errors will be on the side of caution – a may implement some rather crude fudges on the fly to make it so if that doesn’t seem to be what’s happening.
This will be a landmark election night so far as the Electoral Commission of South Australia’s reporting of the results is concerned, as early voting centres will be counted on the night for the first time (though experience suggest some of them will handle too many votes for them to finish the job before the close of business). What were formerly reported in one line as “declaration votes” will now be reported at an appropriate level of complexity – early voting centres no longer count as declaration votes, and will be reported on a location by location basis, and the rest will for the first time be reported separately as postals, absents and the best. This complicated matters for those of us who need to produce datasets of previous election results to match against those that will be reported tonight for swing calculation purposes, but is undoubtedly a welcome development in the long run.
An added layer of challenge lies in the fact that the ECSA offers no indication as to which candidates it has selected for the notional two-candidate preferred counts, which are usually provided to the media on a confidential basis. A couple of seat pages are in fact not working as they should be because one of my tables says one thing about who the candidates will be another one says another, but I believe I’ve geared things so it will correct itself when the appropriate candidates can be identified. If however individual seat results pages continue to misfire, the likeliest explanation (though my no means the only one possible) will have something to do with this issue. In an ideal world I would be free to patch things together, but as it stands I will be otherwise engaged, so it’s a question of fingers crossed.
Naturally all of this involved a vast amount of unpaid work, so if you believe that situation should be rectified, your donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post.
Despite a terrible couple of booths for Teague he is still close enough that early voting (and the redistribution) might save him.
I mean, I would say that this election does have some pretty serious federal implications. The main ones being:
– The One Nation surge is real, and the polling thus far seems to have been pretty damn accurate.
– While One Nation have done extraordinarily well by their standards, a 20% primary is still incredibly difficult to convert into seats in a single-member system.
– There seems to be considerable preference leakage between One Nation and the Liberals.
– One Nation’s rise has mostly been at the expense of the other right-leaning parties so far, though I expect that won’t be quite so much the case in elections with less popular Labor governments or leaders.
– One Nation are performing strongest in regional and provincial areas where the Coalition or independents are traditionally dominant, and while they polling much better than usual in metropolitan areas, they arn’t proving competetive in much of any of them as far as I can tell.
All that suggests that to me that the federal Liberals and Nationals should be utterly terrified, federal Labor should be a little concerned but will probably be fine if they keep thejr shit together and focus on governing well and addressing issues like housing, cost-of-living, and the fuel crisis, the Teals and Greens can probably just keep on doing their thing without sparing One Nation much though, while One Nation themselves probably shouldn’t be celebrating Hanson’s ascension to the Lodge just yet.
Obviously, things will turn about a bit differently federally, not least because Albo isn’t nearly as popular as Mali and federal Labor seems unlikely to poll a 37-38% primary vote in 2028 (and some of the assumptions above probably won’t hold true if One Nation nears 30% on their own primary), but the more we see of tonight’s results, the more relaxed I actually am becoming about the state of play federally.
Rebecca I had a look at their probable gains and the guy in McKillop is a dead ringer for Bruce Lerhmann, the guy in Hammond is the same but a ranga (fits in with ON), the woman in Narungga has Mar-A-Lago Face. The only one that looks normal is David Paton who was a local council rep and would probably be a National or Liberal if they weren’t incompetent.
Ashasays:
but the more we see of tonight’s results, the more relaxed I actually am becoming about the state of play federally.
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Really? With a far lower PV than SA Labor I would think tonight’s results might send a little shiver up the Federal spine.
Four minutes to equalise and bring this to extra time. C’mon!
To those hoping One Moron doesnt win any seats.. think outside the square for a minute…
We need them to win a few.. so we can then watch the capitulation when the new one flog mp’s inevitably have their falling out with Pauline… as always happens.. and the rest of the country can bare witness to it.
Nothing destroys a political party’s momentum more than rats leaving the ship.. and history proves it always happens with one moron mp’s and senators.
But it can only happen if a few get elected.
Mawson has flipped yet again, Labor back in front. There’s a 81% Lib 2pp booth on Kangaroo Island (yeah really) that’s skewing it, but Labor seem to be doing better closer to Adelaide.
Hanson seems to think she won.
ON still on zero LH seats.
Love it when the stupid RWNJs eat themselves.
@Bird of paradox the libs guy is a CFS member from KI, so no surprise with that figure.
So.. the ABC cross to the racist convicted criminal fraudster for her ‘victory “ speech.. the one good thing Pauulleen has done is establish Australia has a core 20% racists population as opposed to the US approaching 38%
Counting is very slow.
I’m sure the Greens will be having their post-election speech by the leader shown as well? Right?
7k now behind one Nat on primary libs.2 won 6 leading on.Wow!
Smug labor wait till the next fed Newspoll.Ya interest rate increase as popular like that turd in the Caddyshack swimming pool!
Definite federal implications. As someone who was disgusted by the Tampa, who spent most of the early part of this century arguing for an increased refugee intake, as a renter who had always put the blame on investors not migrants, and as someone whose vote has always landed on the left of the spectrum, all but one time putting the Greens ahead of Labor – that even I am someone who is now saying that the migration rate is too high, the federal government can’t keep ignoring this issue. And in particular, the effect on housing. It’s only very recently that I’ve come to acknowledge that migration is a part of the housing problem, that it’s not just an investor problem. It is both now, and both need addressing.
(Just for the record, I would still argue for an increased refugee intake, but at the expense of other migration. I still want kindness baked into the migration policy, but it has to be at levels that work too, the current levels are just pure incompetence – and leading to hateful backlash against migrant communities. Something has to give.)
Diogenes says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 9:53 pm
Hanson seems to think she won.
Tomorrow when interview by Speers she will claim the election was rigged biggly rigged
I’ve corrected preference flows that were causing my system to call Finniss for Liberal. It’s now “IND AHEAD”.
Slightly concerned we will see a resurgence from ON about how the voting system is flawed…
I predicted 0 seats for ON a week ago. pied piper and ALABAMA live in cloud cuckoo land.
Ah well. Congratulations to Japan. You outplayed us. You were disciplined and efficient with the ball, whereas we were a bit more erratic and reached a lot. Still, it was a good match. Now back to politicsball.
Outer metro northern Adelaide support for PHON was understated throughout, not sure they’ll get home anywhere though.
So ‘working people in the north “ are identified as ON voters..
are “northerns “ good blue collar workers?
“I’m really proud of the campaign we’ve run”, Hurn says.
Why? You’ve been annihilated by One Nation in your vote, and Labor in seat count. You tried to ride the wave of racism that John Howard unleashed all those years ago and it’s swamped you and the Liberal Party.
Oh my word she’s celebrating that the “pundits said they wouldn’t get any seats” but instead they’re actually getting a few.
If the far-right, the bigoted racists of One Nation weren’t taking their place this would be hilarious to watch.
Kouts giving a good few starting points on how to campaign against PHON. Will the Liberal Party listen?
My head was telling me to vote for Teague. To try and keep enough centrists in the parliamentary Liberal party to head down the road of rejecting PHON while engaging PHON voters on real matters rather than cultural crap. I’m not hopeful the moderates are up to it.
Ashton Hurn is really proud of what she has achieved.
I’m not exactly sure what that is.
Thought that was a grub move by the media to try and interview Ashton Hurn as she entered to give her concession speech. Let her enter and give her speech and leave. That’s the convention.
Malcolm Roberts… vomit.
Liberal Party claim victory..
I guess if you have more than 1 seat you can claim victory
Heysen is two different flavours of messy. Greens ahead of Labor now, Libs in front on 2cp, but the donkey vote (an independent who’s sitting on 1.5%) favours ON and then Greens, so there could be a weirdly large % of ON-Green prefs.
“Ashton Hurn is really proud of what she has achieved. I’m not exactly sure what that is.”
Kept her own job another 4 years.
Ashton Hurn’s speech is delusional.
Ashton Hurn achieved the worst result the LNP have ever had in SA?
Which ones do you think PHON will win from here? They look clearly home and hosed for 2 LC seats. Strongly favoured in Narungga and MacKillop I guess? They also seem to be ahead in Hammond and Ngadjuri. Possibly a third LC slot? It’s terrifying to see that their polling support is real.
Scepticsays:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 10:00 pm
Liberal Party claim victory..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
An English moral victory?
I mean, to be fair to Hurn, there were serious people suggesting that the Libs getting zero seats was a possibility, and instead she’s kept One Nation to zero seats and kept the damage to a few seats.
She was on a hiding to nothing and she’s probably done quite a bit for them compared to if they’d let Tarzia take them off a cliff entirely.
Counting is very slow.
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As was voting. Took them ages to get people through at my booth early this morning. It delayed my coffee. I told Jan how I felt about that.
She will get her participation medal. Chill.
It will have a star on it!FFS
I can’t believe people still fall for the fake farmer bullshit from Liberal twats born into wealth.
Ashton Hurn sounds quite sensible. It’s a pity the SA Libs will have to sack her and put a bloke in now.
Nath:
That’s true, the electoral arithmatic will be quite different if, say, Labor is on a 26% primary and One Nation just below that.
However, if they can stay around the 30% mark and One Nation is kept in the mid-twenties or lower, and the trends we’ve seen so fat in this election play out federally (uneven preference distributions, One Nation’s support being much stronger in the regions than in the cities), I think they would more than likely still be looking at a comfortable majority in such a situation.
We’ll see.
GOW
Never met a poor farmer. $15 million dollar stately homes around here driving their $350,000 dollar Range Rovers. Oh they do mate. They do.
Bird of paradox: Where are you seeing the Greens ahead in Heysen? ABC and ECSA have them still in third.
Play the music. Get on with it and leave Ashton.
There been worse election night speeches.
Labor has some lessons to learn, according to Hurn.
Like what, how to further increase their majority?
She’s nuts.
I hope Ashton Hurn gets to stay on as leader, she presents pretty well
This is her launch for retaining the leadership and to the people for the next election. She can’t appear dejected and full of regret. What are peeps expecting?
I think I’d believe in Ms. Hurn more as a netball coach than a political leader, but I suppose that’s a step up for the Liberals these days
Luigi Smithsays:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 10:04 pm
Ashton Hurn sounds quite sensible
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Pretty hot and can speechify. Next time she might have a chance.
Ashton Hurn preferencing ON is the only reason ON are in any race…..how dumb are the Liberals?