Fox & Hedgehog: Labor 38, One Nation 21, Liberal 19 in South Australia

With four days to go until polling day, Fox & Hedgehog has the first South Australian state poll in nearly three weeks, and it suggests the campaign period has if anything widened One Nation’s lead over the Liberals, while doing little to dent Labor’s ascendancy. Labor is on 38% of the primary vote, down two on the last Fox & Hedgehog poll in early February, with One Nation up one to 21%, the Liberals down one to 18% and the Greens down one to 11%. Two-party preferred measures have Labor’s leads narrowing from 63-37 to 59-41 against One Nation and from 61-39 to 60-40 against the Liberals, with the Liberal lead over One Nation unchanged at 53-47. A three-party preferred measure has Labor down two to 52%, One Nation up one to 26% and Liberal up one to 22%. The poll was conducted March 6 to 16 from a sample of 1008.

The breakdowns include regional classifications of inner Adelaide, outer Adelaide and regional South Australia. With due regard to the small sample sizes, their results can be summarised as follows:

• The primary votes in inner Adelaide are Labor 45%, unchanged on 2022, while the Liberal vote is halved to 19%, with the Greens little changed on 13% and One Nation eclipsing them even here with 15%. This pans out to a Labor two-party lead over the Liberals of 65-35, for a swing of about 7.5%. That would be comfortably enough for Labor to win Unley (2.2%), Hartley (3.6%), Morphett (4.5%) and Colton (4.8%), but not quite Bragg (8.2%).

• The results for outer Adelaide are Labor 44%, up two to three points from 2022, Liberal 12%, down nearly 20, Greens 11%, up about two, and One Nation 20%, with Labor given a 66-34 lead over the Liberals, a swing of nearly 6%. The only seat the Liberals hold here is Morialta, where the margin is 1.4%. Presumably the strength of the Labor primary vote would fortify them against any threat from One Nation.

• One Nation leads the field in regional South Australia with 28% of the primary vote, with Labor on 22%, down about five on 2022, Liberal on 25%, down about 12, and the Greens on 8%, with others at 17%, much of it presumably going to independent incumbents. This would be unevenly distributed, but it surely suggests One Nation is unlikely to emerge empty-handed. Its strongest prospects are presumably Flinders, MacKillop, Chaffey, Narungga and Mount Gambier, which would raise the prospect of official opposition status. The Liberals are nonetheless credited with regional two-party leads of 51-49 over One Nation and 53-47 over Labor, the latter pointing to an adverse swing of 9% that presumably doesn’t bode well for them in Kavel.

Leadership ratings put Peter Malinauskas’s approval at an unchanged 52%, with his neutral rating up four to 26% and negative down two to 19%. Ashton Hurn is respectively up five to 25%, down one to 36% and up two to 15%, with 24% now never having heard of her, down six. Malinauskas’s lead as preferred premier is barely changed, out from 54-22 to 55-22. One fly in the One Nation ointment is that lead upper house candidate Cory Bernardi’s net rating is down from minus four to minus nine: down one on approval to 14%, up two on neutral to 37% and up four on disapproval to 23%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe