With four days to go until polling day, Fox & Hedgehog has the first South Australian state poll in nearly three weeks, and it suggests the campaign period has if anything widened One Nation’s lead over the Liberals, while doing little to dent Labor’s ascendancy. Labor is on 38% of the primary vote, down two on the last Fox & Hedgehog poll in early February, with One Nation up one to 21%, the Liberals down one to 18% and the Greens down one to 11%. Two-party preferred measures have Labor’s leads narrowing from 63-37 to 59-41 against One Nation and from 61-39 to 60-40 against the Liberals, with the Liberal lead over One Nation unchanged at 53-47. A three-party preferred measure has Labor down two to 52%, One Nation up one to 26% and Liberal up one to 22%. The poll was conducted March 6 to 16 from a sample of 1008.
The breakdowns include regional classifications of inner Adelaide, outer Adelaide and regional South Australia. With due regard to the small sample sizes, their results can be summarised as follows:
• The primary votes in inner Adelaide are Labor 45%, unchanged on 2022, while the Liberal vote is halved to 19%, with the Greens little changed on 13% and One Nation eclipsing them even here with 15%. This pans out to a Labor two-party lead over the Liberals of 65-35, for a swing of about 7.5%. That would be comfortably enough for Labor to win Unley (2.2%), Hartley (3.6%), Morphett (4.5%) and Colton (4.8%), but not quite Bragg (8.2%).
• The results for outer Adelaide are Labor 44%, up two to three points from 2022, Liberal 12%, down nearly 20, Greens 11%, up about two, and One Nation 20%, with Labor given a 66-34 lead over the Liberals, a swing of nearly 6%. The only seat the Liberals hold here is Morialta, where the margin is 1.4%. Presumably the strength of the Labor primary vote would fortify them against any threat from One Nation.
• One Nation leads the field in regional South Australia with 28% of the primary vote, with Labor on 22%, down about five on 2022, Liberal on 25%, down about 12, and the Greens on 8%, with others at 17%, much of it presumably going to independent incumbents. This would be unevenly distributed, but it surely suggests One Nation is unlikely to emerge empty-handed. Its strongest prospects are presumably Flinders, MacKillop, Chaffey, Narungga and Mount Gambier, which would raise the prospect of official opposition status. The Liberals are nonetheless credited with regional two-party leads of 51-49 over One Nation and 53-47 over Labor, the latter pointing to an adverse swing of 9% that presumably doesn’t bode well for them in Kavel.
Leadership ratings put Peter Malinauskas’s approval at an unchanged 52%, with his neutral rating up four to 26% and negative down two to 19%. Ashton Hurn is respectively up five to 25%, down one to 36% and up two to 15%, with 24% now never having heard of her, down six. Malinauskas’s lead as preferred premier is barely changed, out from 54-22 to 55-22. One fly in the One Nation ointment is that lead upper house candidate Cory Bernardi’s net rating is down from minus four to minus nine: down one on approval to 14%, up two on neutral to 37% and up four on disapproval to 23%.
Its going to be an interesting night with many questions.
How well does the ON poll translate to real votes?
Where is the ON vote?
Where do Lib preferences go? Do they lean right or left?
How many Libs might be saved by ALP preferences?
Fascinating! All the sound and fury of the campaign and the votes still look locked in from 4 weeks ago. It will be interesting to see what happens s to some of those regional independent seats like Mt Gambier. It might be the Libs only way to save face. And will One Nation actually win a seat or just act as a giant spoiler for the Tories? I’m sure the Lins are regretting their one sided preference deal now. I can’t see how that has helped them in any way.
It’s going to be the first election night I can remember where the early vote count in rural seats are of greatest interest. Outside of Bragg the metro seats seem a foregone conclusion.
Seats like Flinders, MacKillop, Schubert and Chaffey are impossible to pick and fascinating 3-4 way contests
It’d be hilarious if Labor preferences in the regions is what keeps the Liberals in the lower house and as the official opposition – especially with the SA Libs inexplicably recommending preferences to ON for absolutely nothing in return.
I guess it depends on what the LIB vs PHON preference flows are in regional South Australia.
Saturday night was going to be pretty boring with Labor winning in a landslide but there is plenty at play now. Will One Nation win seats? I hope not. Will the Liberals get wiped out? Probably not good if they do. How many independents will win? Can the Greens jag a seat? And of course the upper house, thankfully South Australia has one
Stock up on the popcorn
I guess the big question is will Labor be held back to under 34 seats, and can the Liberals win more than 4 seats?
It’s barely any different from the last poll. I suppose the war has dominated people’s minds which is fair enough.
I really don’t want ON to get and lower house seats. I can’t stand seeing Bernardi on TV.
@Diogenes At least you don’t have to worry about him getting anywhere close to being in power since Labor is going to romp it home anyways.
Labor’s power will be curtailed if ON achieves balance of power in the upper House. Why is this not acknowledged here?
Over 66,500 early votes on the 16th of March. So so far over 130,000 people all up voted early.
24% have not even heard of the lib candidate.FFS.
So any late swing against labor with interest rate bomb today will go to one nation not libs.
Just how big is the one nation vote? that is a lot of people do not admit they vote for them due to being labelled racist.
Just sayin col inceases via electricity prices,rents,interest rate increases and now fuel prices affects the one nation voting demographic bigtime.
Outpolling Greens in inner Adel hey.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=AAWEB_MRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.adelaidenow.com.au%2Fnews%2Fsouth-australia%2Fstate-election%2Finside-the-sa-electorate-where-fedup-voters-are-flocking-to-pauline-hanson%2Fnews-story%2Fccdf085ed467bf426b2c3120afe2ca57&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-2-SCORE
These are nearly the same numbers that the Roy Morgan poll showed nearly a month ago.
The sample was 1008 broken down into inner, outer and rural. Pretty small samples when split 3 ways
This is VERY interesting – IF the pattern repeats at Federal level, the ON vote being so heavily concentrated in regional seats rather than being a genuine threat in suburban areas would both ensure ON gazumps the Coalition in the regions and also ensure they are no threat to Labor in the cities.
@pp
I’ve never heard of anything the SA state Greens have ever done, but then I don’t live there so it’s not an entirely fair call (any South Australians want to weigh in?). If they are as useless as the Vic state Greens it is little wonder.
I think all talent in the Greens tends to go Federal and the state parties rely on the coattails of the Federal Greens.
TBM
I know he won’t win. I just don’t want to see him.
I saw Malinauskas last night on the Four Corner’s program about the South Australian algal bloom. He’s a bit slippery, isn’it he?
@everyone If the only other alternative is One Nation, then I will not complain at all if Labor does petty little mistakes during the campaign trail. As long as the far-right doesn’t get into power then I’m good.
Good interview with SA Chief Health Officer Nicola Spurrier on algal bloom health issues just now on ABC Radio Adelaide. Strongly defending her science input. Rather different from some political and media commentary.
The Greens may need more than popcorn!
A detailed guide on SA election…
https://australianelectionguides.wordpress.com/
Based on the forecast numbers, there are going to be several seats where there is a 3-way (even 4-way?) contest. What will be especially interesting is the preference flows both to and from One Nation. I am looking forward to a few fascinating late count contests unfolding into next week.
Spence
Did Nicola admit they had the organism wrong for four months? It’s kind of important for a doctor to know what the organism is.
And NSW had to work it out for her.
Welp, so much for my prediction of a late swing away from Labor. This is looking like WA 2021 Redux.
@Asha It helps when the Labor leader is extremely popular and well liked with the electorate, and Peter Malinauskas is certainly really popular and well liked as the premier in South Australia with his lead over Hurn as better premier being at over 20%.
I’m surprised but not unhappy to be wrong – definitely thought this last few weeks would have caused a dent.
shiftaling
Picton and algal bloom might be yet to take effect.
Then again the Lib candidate who had seen witches melt kind of showed Antic has plenty of loons to foist on the populace.
ON as opposition in the lower house will be hilarious and disturbing as the Government will not be held to any account with zero political experience. The experienced ALP Ministers will lap it up with stupid, factually incorrect questions and suggestions.
I’d been a bit worried that One Nation might do well in the election, but then
I remembered that the AEC hands out pencils to vote with, not crayons.
Interesting numbers. This election will be the first road test for Sonic & Tails Polling.
I don’t know what else to say. This election has been a non-event and I don’t really see any change in tone. I know people here have been airing grievances and, if you just went by what was posted here, you’d believe Labor were in for a shock but I don’t know if most voters are noticing or care.
It kind of reminds me of some of this place c.2011-13 where, if you only went by what was posted on here, you’d be certain that Abbott and/or the Coalition were about to crash and burn under various scandals or policy blunders, and Abbott would never become PM. Sometimes vibes trump substance, and sometimes we’re capable of inflating the importance of things that confirm our priors (and downplay those that don’t), regardless of how rational we think we are or where our politics lie.
Rakiki @ #10 Tuesday, March 17th, 2026 – 7:41 am
Balance of Power in the LC and the problem that will be presented if it’s held by populist right parties has been a topic well-covered in these threads.
‘That would be comfortably enough for Labor to win Unley (2.2%), Hartley (3.6%), Morphett (4.5%) and Colton (4.8%), but not quite Bragg (8.2%).’
I understand why the 8.2% margin is attributed to Bragg, but considering the by-election margin of 5.6%, is it not worth considering Bragg equally alongside seats like Colton and Morphett? Especially since that 5.6% margin, albeit occurring in a by-election, is the more recent result and a result that can be attributed to the current member? Again, I know the justification for using regular election margins, but I’m not sure it provides an entirely accurate picture.
I am though. Kevin Bonham wrote a good post on the matter:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/making-seats-marginal-at-by-elections.html
That advertiser article exposes just how idiotic and stupid many voters are. Full of racist boomers who hate immigrants and thinks there’s too many even though their electorate is 90% white. Voting Pauline because the others are “resting on their laurels” despite Pauline having never once contributed to anything in this country.
The headline screams “FED UP VOTERS FLOCKING TO PAULINE HANSON” and right at the end their “straw poll” of 43 people there ended up with Labor 9, Liberal 7, One Nation 9.
“Flocking to One Nation” based on that.
Libs had shocking luck at the start of the campaign with the Federal leadership crap and the war starting but I think they have been very lucky to get an interest rate rise and the petrol hike hurting families.
Neither had anything to do with state politics but they can’t help Labor.
The question is whether they help ON?
Ghost
Evidently “Pauline and the gang have got the answers.”
WTAF!
To go from the Marshall Liberal government being elected in 2018 to the Liberals being all but wiped out in 2026 is just crazy to think about. In 8 years, the Liberals have just squandered their once in a generation chance to rule South Australia in the most colossal ever way possible. The thing is is that a victory of this magnitude would see Labor governing into the 2040s with basically no real opposition whatsoever which in the modern era of divisive politics is just unheard of.
Regardless of the state of things right now, I’d caution against making such long-term predictions. As we’ve seen time and time again, a party’s electoral domination can come to a swift, earlier than expected end and an opposition, previously considered an unelectable rabble, suddenly are competitive again.
I would have lost a lot of money if I were a betting man and took a punt on how I thought the long-term political future would go. Even in the short term, it’s often been unexpected eg during COVID, it seemed like every government (except Trump) was going to ride their crisis leadership cred and retain power for a while to come. Within a few years, it became mostly toxic to be an incumbent.
Rakali. There is no way ON will have BoP in upper house. Labor plus Greens will have 12 seats. Maybe 13.
Even if ON win 3 or 4 seats there will be other ways for Labor this time. After 2030 might be different.
The Greens and One Nation are projected to have 2 seats each in the Legislative Council with Sarah Game not being up for reelection, and the final seat being a tussle between Family First and Animal Justice according to the most recent polls. In this scenario there is absolutely no way that One Nation will have the balance of power.
Those who think Ashton Turner’s campaigning and the Chris Picton stuffup might have narrowed the gap somewhat will be disappointed by this poll, and the fact that Mali has been campaigning in Liberal electorates in Adelaide tells you something about Labor’s internal polling.
As everyone else has said, the real excitement on Saturday night will be in those regional seats where One Nation is competing with the Liberals.
I think 2 Greens & Animal Justice are unlikely.
It looks like 6 left and 5 right.
On the left, 4 Labor, 1 Green get in comfortably, then one out of 5th Labor, 2nd Green or AJ.
2022 also had 5 Labor, 1 Green, so this makes a 12/22 majority.
On the right, 2 ON, 2 Lib get in, then probably one of 3rd ON or FF.
7 left is possible, but needs around 58%.
ON as opposition in the lower house will be hilarious and disturbing as the Government will not be held to any account with zero political experience. The experienced ALP Ministers will lap it up with stupid, factually incorrect questions and suggestions.
++++++++++++
Also we should expect Qld 98 repeat. Or Xenomorph Party in SA.
Cranks and crazies who know nothing about politics will not submit to party whips, discipline or even doing their policy homework. And Pauline will try to run things from outside which they never like.
Labor will have fun taunting them. You could do lots of Dorothy Dixers “Is the Minister aware of any alternative policy approaches?”
All the portents of an electoral bloodbath.
It is interesting to see how Cory Bernardi has become less popular since he has gotten back into politics in the SA election campaign. How this might affect the vote for ON in the Upper House is yet to be seen.
DS
“ Those who think Ashton Turner’s campaigning and the Chris Picton stuffup might have narrowed the gap somewhat will be disappointed by this poll, and the fact that Mali has been campaigning in Liberal electorates in Adelaide tells you something about Labor’s internal polling.”
I think that you using a cricketers name rather than the Opposition leaders name, Ashton Hurn, says everything we need to know about the deep knowledge you have of SA politics.
“Bloody labor another interest rate rise and petrol and electricity is costing us a fortune.”Thats the conversation going on in SA and around Australia this week.
Votes will spill to one nation as libs are beyond useless in SA.
“I think that you using a cricketers name rather than the Opposition leaders name, Ashton Hurn, says everything we need to know about the deep knowledge you have of SA politics.”
Or it says he needs to check what his autocorrect is doing to his posts before clicking send.
Turner and Hurn are not an autocorrect problem.
That’s just ignorance.
T & H are close to each other, and the next 3 letters are urn.
Of course that can be an autocorrect problem.