With two days to go, The Advertiser has a YouGov South Australian state poll with result almost identical to both the last such poll a month ago, and Fox & Hedgehog’s result earlier this week. Labor is at 38%, up a point on the previous YouGov poll, with One Nation steady on 22%, Liberal down one to 19% and the Greens down one to 12%. Labor is credited with two-party leads of 59-41 over both One Nation and Liberal, which is in from 60-40 last time in the former case and unchanged in the latter.
Peter Malinauskas records an approval rating of 63%, down one, and a disapproval rating of 30%, up two. Ashton Hurn is up two on both measures, to 42% approval and 35% disapproval. Malinauskas’s lead as preferred premier is in from 63-20 to 62-23. The poll was conducted March 9 to 17 from a sample of 1265.
UPDATE: YouGov has a full release with lots of further detail, including regional breakdowns, and there is also now a DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll for InDaily that’s even worse for the Liberals than the others (Labor 37%, One Nation 23%, Liberal 17%, Greens 11%), both of which will be covered in a post I’ll have up this evening.
My prediction for the early vote will be that it will be 1/4 of the overall vote (excluding postal votes).
“A question remains though, why does this work for Pauline when it didn’t work for Clive?”
It did work for Clive, in a way. In the 2013 election he won a MP seat of course even with the LNP starting with a 41% primary vote! 2013 was also where Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus got in under his ticket along with a win in the special election.
I think Clive has become recognised as a joke candidate, who was never going to be doing serious work and wasn’t ever going to be seen as an “authentic” choice. Lambie staying on and becoming more popular might be an example of that. The non-stop name changes isn’t going to help.
And for all his faults I don’t think Palmer is openly racist, or willing to court the extreme far-right like Hanson is.
There are a lot of immigrants in Northern suburb seats where One Nation is also polling well. I think there is an element of older people who remember when places like Elizabeth were as white as a sheet and miss that. I don’t. It was a fucking boring shit hole back then. At least there’s good food available out here now.
I had the (un) fortunate experience of having had dinner with a group of mostly ON supporters from rural NSW yesterday.
They all are blowing Pauline’s trumpet, don’t care that there are no ON policies, don’t care who the candidates are, hate renewables, hate city folk, hate Albanese, hate migrants, hate the dole and explains the phenomena Pauline/Barnaby.
It’s real, it’s intentional!
It’s total SKY news!
(regionally free to air)
It’s total MAGA!
(Australian version)
It’s total Country Party
(1950s version)
It’s the most fervent dumbest version of the lucky country.
We had a foretaste of this when No bolted home in the referendum.
Goll
Completely. It’s I don’t like x, I don’t like y, I don’t like Z.
You need someone smarter than me to work out how to fix that. Perhaps they need to be under the blowtorch and fail?
Interesting that Labor’s vote has dropped according to multiple polls. They’ll clearly win big time but the campaign hasn’t been great and you wonder if the Premier’s lost a bit of his charm. No surprise if they lose Giles to ON and lose a stack of votes in safe northern suburbs seats.
Barnaby defecting to ON gave them legitimacy, IMO. All his National party supporters followed him over. Plus Gina Rinehart is a big Trump supporter so ON are probably following the MAGA playbook. Same as Reform UK, AfD, Le Pen and similar right wing parties in Europe.
And Clive Palmer was mentioned in the Epstein files!
What a horrible image!!
“ And Clive Palmer was mentioned in the Epstein files!”
Clive didn’t score an invite to the island AFAIK
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-01/palmer-denies-bannon-claim-of-election-campaign-influence/106293074
Yeah, not a great week for petrol to go to $2.50 a litre. I’m not at all complacent that there won’t be some kind of horrible shock result.
Obviously not imagining a loss of government, but something to seriously give wind to the MAGA down under sails would be really unwelcome
Giles? Doubt it. There’s enough vote up for grabs from SA Best (11.2% last time) and Geoff Brock (booths transferred in from Stuart) that I’d be surprised if One Nation didn’t come second, but Labor have a big margin there. Assuming ALP/Lib and ALP/ON margins can be compared like-for-like (which we’re about to get plenty of data points for), a 20% swing against them in an election they’re expected to get a >5% swing to them would need some explanation.
The only marginal seat Labor have in the northern suburbs is King, but I can’t see that going anywhere – something like 25% Lib / 15% ON is actually better for Labor than 40% just for the Libs, because of preference leakage on the right. Elsewhere, Labor can absorb a lot of damage without actually losing any seats. They copped hefty swings to Libs in 2010 and SA Best in 2018 in that part of Adelaide without losing anything, and those were elections they (a) were lucky to win and (b) lost. If they’re heading for a landslide win, dropping 5-10% to ON is annoying but harmless – most of the ON vote will be coming off the dying Libs anyway.
Final newspoll; South Australia (state) voting
Labor 40% (-4)
onp: 22%(-2)
Lib 16% (+2)
Green 12% (-)
Other 10% (+4)
Newspoll | 12-18 Mar | n=1048 | +/- 11-17 Feb
Don’t have 2pp figures atm
Latest yougov had one nation leading labor around Australia in the outer suburbs and that’s mortgage belt, who this week were smashed with yet another labor interest rate rise.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-one-nation-surge-splits-conservative-vote-handing-labor-election-victory/news-story/5c0b016f6761021db82ecd219ebab0b7
Newspoll SA state poll
Primaries ALP 40 (-4) ON 22 (-2) LIB 16 (+2) GRN 12 (0) OTH 10 (+4)
Pref Premier: Malinauskas ALP 64 (-3) Hurn LIB 22 (+3)
Mali: Approve 65 (-2) Disapprove 31 (+4)
Hurn: Approve 43 (+4) Disapprove 35 (0)
Newspoll of 1048 voters was conducted online between March 12 and March 18.
In the article it says “The complication of One Nation’s rise renders a two-party preferred vote meaningless.” which has been their approach for recent federal Newspolls as well, they don’t bother trying. YouGov on the other hand try a TPP ALP vs L/NP, a TPP ALP vs ON, and a 3PP chart as well.
If Labor is getting 40% of the primary vote then the 2PP has to be something crazy like 65-35 vs Liberal and vs One Nation.
“One Nation surge splits conservative vote, handing Labor election victory”
Delusional headline. Labor being significantly more popular, and being an overwhelming second choice for Greens voters is what will “hand Labor election victory”.
TBM: not quite that extreme. Giving Labor 10/12 Green, 5/10 other, and 6/22 ON or 4/16 Lib as appropriate, that’s either 61-39 vs Lib or 59-41 vs ON. Very handwavy but it seems to line up with published 2pp figures.
“hate the dole”
Unless it’s dressed up as a tax break / tax allowance / subsidy / grant / support payment.
Then they are all over them elbowing each other to get to the front of the queue.
It’s the same in Red states in the US and some of the UK fishing & farming areas that voted to leave the EU
Honestly, there is no point in making a prediction for this election considering that Labor is going to win. I’m just making a seat by seat prediction for the love of the game atp.
I’ll be going off the number of seats that each party holds rather than going off 2022 election results. This means Dunstan and Black will be counted as Labor seats and Mackillop will count as an independent seat. Labor starts with 29 seats (including Mawson), LIB with 13 and IND with 5 (including Mount Gambier).
ALP: 37 Seats (+8)
LIB: 4 (-9)
IND: 5 (-)
ONP: 1 (+1)
GRN: 0
ALP gains Morialta, Unley, Heysen, Ngadjuri, Hartley, Morphett, Colton and Hammond from LIB. It is possible they could gain Bragg from the Liberals, but it seems like the swings towards Labor in Adelaide may not be enough to wipe out the Liberal’s 8.2% margin. There is a possibility where the Greens can win Heysen rather than Labor. At most I can see Labor winning 39 seats (gains Kavel and Bragg), I do not see a scenario where they can win 40 or more seats.
With the current surge in ONP’s polling I would put them as the favourites to win Chaffey. However, I believe possible for them to win Mackillop, Narungga and Ngadjuri, with Schubert and Flinders on a really good night for them.
As for the independents, I expect Dan Cregan’s chosen successor in Matt Schultz will win Kavel despite Labor heavily targeting the seat from what I’ve heard. On a similar note I also expect Travis Fatchen will succeed his boss in Mount Gambier, which has a long tradition of voting in independents. Lou Nicholson will win Finniss from the LIB in her second attempt. Nick McBride will lose Mackillop to LIB, god forbid we have another Kiama situation. Whilst I put Flinders down as a LIB retain, I do think it’s possible for Meghan Petherick to win. I’ll also think it’s a possibility Airlie Keen can win Hammond, but I lean towards Labor winning due to their high polling and their preselection of Mid Murray Mayor Simone Bailey who potentially has a significant personal vote.
And here we go!!!!!!!!!!