Live commentary
End of evening. I missed most of the evening’s excitement, but contrary to my earlier indication that the Greens were well placed, the most likely result looks to be a narrow win for Labor, giving it a fifth seat in parliament and its only foothold in Darwin. There is no doubt that it will come down to Labor and the Greens at the final count: independent Phil Scott is set to bow out first with 17.3% of the primary vote and his preferences will do few favours for the CLP candidate on 20.3%. The Greens lead Labor on first preferences by 33.5% to 28.9%, but preferences have turned this into a Labor lead of 1890 to 1749, and there will only be about 200 postal votes outstanding. A pseudonymous commenter who presumably isn’t making it up relates that Labor got 78% of CLP and 40% of independent preferences, the former marking a decisive return to normality after an almost even split helped deliver the Greens their win in 2024.
7.45pm. The one election day polling booth has reported, but as noted below it only accounts for about a quarter of the vote, together with 158 postals, with the former in on the primary vote and the latter in on the two-candidate count as well. On this evidence it looks to be a two-horse race between Labor and the Greens in which the NTEC have picked the right candidates for the two-candidate count. The postal result suggests preferences are splitting about evenly, in which case the Greens lead over Labor of 395 to 293 would seem to be very good news for them. However, nothing can be stated with confidence in the absence of pre-poll results.
6.30pm. An NTEC media release advises: “907 eligible voters in the Division of Nightcliff cast their vote today at the election day voting centre located at Nightcliff High School. During the early voting period 2,657 votes have been cast at the early voting centre or mobile voting service. 441 postal votes have been issued.” They also have a thorough account of how and when the count will be conducted.
6pm. Polls have closed. Follow the results at the Northern Territory Electoral Commission. I’ll have commentary to offer if something comes through over the next hour or so, but after that I’m going out.
Preview
A Northern Territory by-election is being held today in the northern Darwin seat of Nightcliff, which became the first seat in the territory ever to be won by the Greens at the August 2024 election. That member, Kat McNamara, resigned in early February citing health issues, and a by-election has ensued with swift dispatch. McNamara unseated former Labor Chief Minister Natasha Fyles by 36 votes at the August 2024 election, after an unusually weak flow of Country Liberal preferences to Labor.
Both major parties are fielding candidates, with Labor hoping to add to its meagre haul of four seats out of 25 in 2024, and the ascendant Country Liberals hoping to add to their existing tally of 17. The Greens candidate is Suki Dorras-Walker, a community legal service paralegal and former teacher who ran for the party in Fannie Bay in 2024. Labor’s candidate is Ed Smelt, a Darwin councillor and civil engineer, while the Country Liberals have endorsed Anjan Paudel, a Nepalese-Australian lawyer. Phil Scott, who ran in the federal seat of Solomon in 2025 with backing from Climate 200 and polled 12.5%, is running as an independent.
The post will be appended with commentary on the count after polls close at 6pm local time.
Could end up waiting for all the postals to come in for this one.
Greens now need 44% of prefs to win, in between what they got from postal (46%) and day (38%). This’ll be close.
Urban voting is also done for 2cp, prefs went 10-3 to Labor.
Hard being green at 9.41pm – no.
‘G’ at 9.31pm. Take your ‘dei shit’ and piss off.
On William’s numbers above there were 441 postal votes issued, there have only been 160 counted so far with the Greens winning those by 12
For what it’s worth
ALABAMA 9.48pm
No doubt I’m more ‘your side’ of politics but I see no need for that kind of bad-tempered outburst. Reading G’s post since, I didn’t think it was that inflammatory (and thought it was helpful to provide a link) although of course you wouldn’t word it just like that and I know it was a challenge to ‘put your money where your mouth is’.
ARIZONA:
Who hurt you?
Asha @ #104 Saturday, March 7th, 2026 – 9:48 pm
A woman he was certain was stuck with him for life, regardless of how shitty he was to her or the children they had together.
It looks like Country Liberal preferences will in the end decide the contest between the Greens and Labor in Nightcliff.
ALABAMA 9.48pm
No doubt I’m more ‘your side’ of politics but I see no need for that kind of bad-tempered outburst. Reading G’s post since, I didn’t think it was that inflammatory (and thought it was helpful to provide a link) although of course you wouldn’t word it just like that and I know it was a challenge to ‘put your money where your mouth is’.
Looks like Alabama might have blown a valve and been retired.
And Pied Piper couldn’t read the results and declared a winner prematurely.
What to think?
One thing is for sure – whoever loses, be they ALP or Green, will trot out the same old, “Yeah but they won on/accepted (Country) Liberal preferences!” even though that means absolutely nothing.
EVC: Grn 816, ALP 748, others 992. Repeat the pref flow from the day booth (117/310=37.7% to Green) and Labor win the booth 1366-1190, which is plenty for Labor with maybe a couple of hundred postals to come. 46% flow makes it 1284-1272, which is pretty much a dead heat once you count the current 14 vote lead. It isn’t over, but I’d rather be Labor at the moment.
I am caught off guard by the fact that it’s already election day for Nightcliff. Time flies quickly! Rn I’m at the ABC site for the count and the 2pp result is 50.6-49.4 GRN-ALP. Unsurprisingly, it’s still close.
I wasn’t home when counting started but I presume the Greens were initially ahead on the count and now Labor’s playing catch up?
Casey Briggs: “The NT electoral commission is yet to post the early voting centre 2CP for Nightcliff, but I understand it puts Labor in the lead and well placed to win. Waiting for the official figures.”
With the EVC preferences allocated, Labor now leading by 141.
Looks like Ed is going to Parliament on Tuesday.
Yep, as someone who wanted the Greens to hold on here, that looks like a wrap in Labor’s favor.
Congratulations to Ed, and commiserations to Suki.
That would be the end of counting tonight. Not a lot of other votes to come – 200 or so postals, and some declaration votes. Labor leads 51.9 to 48.1 2CP. It would be hard for Labor to lose from here.
Unlike 2024, this has ended up a clearcut Greens v Labor contest. This result will be a much needed boost for Territory Labor.
Something is wrong on the NTEC site. ALP ahead 1890 to 1741 on the 2PP count but the % showing Greens ahead 51.9% to 48.1%
One of these figures is wtong. But which?
Yeah, looks like a Labor win. Anyone know how many postals are left?
And now its fized. ALP win.
The prepoll preference flows must have been very strong for ALP.
3z:
I’d be inclined to think the percentages have been accidentally flipped with the vote counts being accurate, though thinking about it I suppose the reverse could be equally true.
What an exciting count for a district thay has (substantially) fewer voters than my ward on Ballarat City Council.
3z: the pref flow to Greens were 38.8% from early votes, 37.7% from the day booth, so pretty much the same. Postals were better for them, but there won’t be enough of them remaining to change the result.
441 postals were issued and 158 have been counted already. Probably around 250 postals to be counted plus a few declaration votes.
Labor gets 78% of CLP preferences but only 40% of Scott’s Teals. Enough to lead by 152 with likely less than 200 postals provisionals & absentees to be counted. Its done it’s all over Ed Smelt returns Nightcliff to Labor.
Cleaner: where do you get those figures from? They haven’t done a full preference count, and won’t until next week.
Nominal 2PP preference distribution done tonight.
Sad to see the Greens couldn’t hold on but that’s politics, congratulations on the win Labor
Looks like NTEC may have completed the first stage of the ballot checking, not including the EVC votes.
No change so far.
It appears rechecking of the EVC votes has increased Ed Smelt’s lead out to 158 – 52.2% 2PP. (12.24pm NT time)
With Territory elections and small electorates, margins can seem to be a lot closer than they really are. Usually, a 52.2% 2PP indicates a fairly comfortable win (albeit still a marginal seat).
Assuming the re-check is now finished, Labor can claim the victory.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-09/nt-labor-ed-smelt-wins-nightcliff-byelection-greens-seat-suki/106432806
Territory Labor’s Ed Smelt wins Nightcliff by-election, taking the Greens’ only NT seat
Labor’s Ed Smelt has won the Nightcliff by-election, with a check count of votes removing any shred of doubt he has claimed the seat.
A check count conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission on Monday slightly increased Mr Smelt’s lead to 158 votes over the Greens’ Suki Dorras-Walker.
So preferences flowed 846 ALP to 524 Greens, that’s a bit over 61%.
A Media Release by NTEC advises Smelt leads by 158 votes with a potential of 358 votes to come (postals and decs). As not all the postals will be sent in time and not all the decs will be accepted, he’s effectively home and hosed.
As a civil engineer, the only Darwin ALP MP and a personable chap, he’s obviously being groomed for the CM’s job.
New postals received & counted reduce Smelt’s lead by 35 votes to 123. Some declaration votes to be counted shortly. After that only a few postals to dribble in by 12 noon Friday.
103 postals & 58 declaration votes admitted & counted. Smelt’s lead reduced by 35 to 123. Only a dribble of outstanding postals to be received by 12 noon Friday. A full preference distribution will then be conducted. Official declaration to take place mid morning Monday next. It’s really over now, it’s really done now. Ed Smelt is the new Member for Nightcliff.
Some preliminary thoughts:
CLP- a poor performance admittedly in a strong anti/CLP electorate. But certainly the shine has gone off the Chief Minister. Anti-crime their perceived strong point proved insufficient to seriously trouble the scorers. Need more than that to hold the numerous close marginals in the Northern Suburbs where elections are won & lost in the Territory. 2/10
Greens: Loss the only seat they have won in NT elections albeit with a significant swing on the primaries. However the ‘safe house’ of Labor proved more attractive for other candidates voters & their preferences. Better organised than ever before in the NT with obvious youthful enthusiasm (booth workers on roller skates I have never seen before.) A par performance. 5/10
Labor: Showed their demonstrated ability to campaign well in by elections. Smelt proved a hard working amiable candidate with obvious potential down the track.Attracted strong non English speaking background support to his campaign & young Laborites and popular ex MLA’s turned out to help. 7/10