Two new Victorian state polls:
• The Financial Review reports a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll showing One Nation, which was not a response option in the last such poll in December, at 24%, with Labor down six to 25%, the Coalition down 12 to 28% and the Greens up one to 13%. Two-party preferred results based on respondent-allocated preferences show the Coalition with a 52-48 lead over Labor and Labor with a 53-47 lead over the Coalition. The poll was conducted February 18 to 27 from a sample of 2165.
• The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor on 28%, the Coalition on 27%, One Nation on 23% and the Greens on 13%. Labor and the Coalition are tied on a two-party preferred measure that I presume is based on respondent-allocated preferences. Jacinta Allan records a minus 33 net approval rating compared with plus 15 for Liberal leader Jess Wilson, who holds a 46% to 30% lead over Allan on preferred premier. Thirty-six per cent said the Liberal leadership change in November made them more likely to vote Coalition compared with 14% for less likely and 44% for no difference. Seventy-four per cent registered support for a royal commission into alleged criminal infiltration and corruption within the CFMEU, with only 7% opposed. The poll was conducted February 19 to 23 from a sample of 1030.
Also from Victoria:
• May 2 has been set as the date for the Nepean by-election, arising from the resignation of former Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. A Liberal preselection vote last week was won by Mornington Peninsula Shire mayor Anthony Marsh. Cameron McCullough of the Mornington Peninsula News reports Marsh won the preselection ballot on the first round with 10 out of 19 votes, against four for former Hastings candidate Briony Camp, three for Frankston mayor and federal Dunkley candidate Nathan Conroy, and two for Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess. The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column notes Marsh’s how-to-vote card at the 2020 council election directed voters to put the Liberal candidates last. One Nation’s candidate is Darren Hercus, whom the Herald Sun reports is a civil engineer and owner of a Dromana floor and roof truss manufacturing plant. Former Liberal member Peter Angelico will run for the Libertarian Party. Labor will presumably not bother.
• The Australian reports Andrew Lethlean, the Bendigo publican who came close to pulling off an extraordinary feat in winning the federal seat of Bendigo for the Nationals last May, looks assured of being the party’s candidate against Jacinta Allan in Bendigo East.
• Tim Read, who has held Brunswick for the Greens since 2018, has announced he will not contest the November election, having been diagnosed in October with metastatic cancer.
• One of a number of SMS polls published last week by Roy Morgan gauged Victorian state voting intention, and it had One Nation leading the field with 26.5%, with Labor on 25.5%, the Coalition on 21.5% and the Greens on 13%. Three two-party results were provided, putting Labor 52-48 ahead of the Coalition and 52.5-47.5 ahead of One Nation, with the Coalition leading One Nation 56-44. The poll was conducted February 13 to 16 from a sample of 2462.
@Ghost of Whitlam
Basically most of the Victorian opposition want to have Dan Andrews as humiliated as Jeff Kennett, which in their minds should be a reversal of everything he did followed by his public execution. Even if Andrews no longer participates in politics.
No difference to them, even if Kennett still participates in politics.
A Labor/Green government, eh? I’d like to see that. (That’s not meant as sarcasm, I genuinely would.) As opposed to the “majority or not at all” position which Tas Labor have snookered themselves with, to the point that it’s hard to ever see them forming government again. If Labor land a few seats short of majority in November and the Greens can make up the difference, it needs to happen. Yes, it’ll be messy sometimes, but the alternative is some combination of the Libs and One Nation running the show.
GoW:
Fair!
Gina has deep pockets for one nation in Victoria….
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/commando-and-rinehart-executive-in-talks-with-one-nation-20260305-p5o7xz
Bird of Paradox:
Yeah, I agree.
Dan Andrews – collision with 15-year old on bike in 2013 (alluded to above).
If I’d heard of it before I don’t remember it.
I’ve just gone on https://bikeboy.com.au/bikeboywiki thanks to the link given above. I was expecting it to be quite sensationalist and political based on comments on this thread (rather a leaping to conclusions I admit), but what I’ve seen so far is very clear and coherent and avoids a lot of unnecessary hyperbole that might have been expected of a political site. That may just be ‘sensible marketing’ but they present a lot of cogent information anyway.
They even quote some of what Andrews says in dissing the case as well as presenting the facts they believe damn both him and the various arms of the state involved at the time.
I haven’t read it enough yet (and may never have time to – though I’d like to, it’s an interesting read if nothing else, well-written in terms of readability) to draw an absolute conclusion.
But I’ll say just this – if there’s even a reasonable case that it’s anywhere near 1/2 what I’ve seen it’s claiming so far, then no one with their apolitical head on would think it should not be fully investigated whoever the person is – but doubly so a person who was already in a position of such responsibility, and who become the most powerful person in Victoria for nearly a decade. It’s not wrong to hold public servants such as politicians, police, judiciary, army etc. to the highest of standards. Whether in office still or not.
That those who characteristically hate Dan Andrews would use this matter for political gain does not alter the above – the right thing should be done. Though those being very overtly political about it are probably achieving the opposite of what they aim for, until such time if/when Dan Andrews and/or his wife are convicted of wrongdoing, by making ‘Dan’s’ side of politics assume it’s just a political hit trying to be achieved and no more.
The fact that the evidence may be contestable hardly seems a reasonable defence by Dan Andrews fans on this site, given that a whole large part of this grievance/allegations is BECAUSE of both the removal of, and failure to gather further, EVIDENCE.
No records of breath tests taken yet police say they were? Either way it’s wrong.
Removal of (significantly damaged, at that) important evidence i.e. the car! from scene of serious injury by Dan Andrews, being allowed THAT NIGHT without proper police investigation at the scene first, even though the young victim was fighting for his life – flying in the face of all normal accepted practice?
They are just a couple of snippets relating to evidence – though for me just the suspicion around alcohol involvement related to the ‘breath test paradox’ makes it massively more serious. Whereas if it were ‘merely’ unintentional and careless driving, cover-up or not, then part of me would think that it actually might be time to move on, we all make mistakes even bad ones, shame they weren’t properly investigated at the time, etc. etc. (though part of me thinks the alleged evidence and expert reports are pretty gobsmacking even without the ‘breath test paradox’/cover-up drinking aspect, and that it’s only right a public servant should be forced to reckon honestly with his (or his wife’s) deeds, especially when someone suffered so much (90% damaged spleen, anyone?).)
That’s just ma tuppence-ha’penny from a long way away.
P.S. None of my post above means this matter will necessarily have the slightest impact on the election result in Victoria, of course, though I suppose it could do depending who and what was involved and if brought fully to conclusion in time. Different if DA was still Premier.
2022 Victoria election VEC
Liberal party primary vote 29.60% = 18 seats
National Party primary vote 4.77% = 9 seats
These are the figures which are going to likely keep Labor in majority government
Labor primary vote remains higher than Liberal Party primary vote ,
The opinion polling is dubious at the moment, but if there is a swing to one nation , the liberal party and national party primary vote will decrease so will the seats
Lib/nats and One Nation will have a weak 2pp in Labor held seats , why its harder for Labor to lose many seats
BTsays
I’m not interested in bike boy case, but here is the official federal court filing of defence in response to bike boy
https://www.fedcourt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/582733/2026-02-10-Defence.pdf
BTSays
And what is the right thing? Bike boy received the best medical care and compensation via TAC at the time.
Personally I believe bike boy is trying to milk money from someone who he believes can afford to pay him
He would not be pursuing this, if he had hit another car.
That’s the last thing I’m going to say on this matter.
There are a lot more important things going on in the world.
I think as a general statement Victoria has 4 options that the public don’t want in power. I would say 60-65% of the population think the following;
LABOR: Stale government with an unpopular leader and poor economic management. Don’t deserve another term.
COALITION: Incompetent in fighters who don’t really stand for anything with an inexperienced leader. Just a bad option.
ONE NATION + GREENS: The left/right options for a protest vote but absolutely do not want them in any form of power.
I feel like in those outer suburban seats there will absolutely be a protest vote that heavily favours One Nation, wipes 10% off the Labor primary out there but also shrinks the already small Liberal primary.
This will probably make some of those contests ALP v ONP 2CPs. But the Greens and moderate voters who stuck with the Liberals over One Nation are more likely to preference ALP and keep many of those seats in Labor’s hands. For those outer suburban contests in traditional Labor heartland that remain ALP v LIB, I can imagine that voters who swing from ALP to ONP will probably do so as a protest but many will still send their preference back to Labor over the Libs too.
Meanwhile in those inner to middle suburban seats with margins around 6-8% like Ashwood, Box Hill, Bentleigh, Niddrie & Mordialloc, the perceived threat of a possible L/NP-ONP government will probably blunt the swings to the Liberals because at least some of the moderate swing voters who may otherwise have thought “it’s time” to give the Libs a shot will probably hold their nose and vote Labor again to keep ONP away from power.
Any way you slice this, I think the rise of One Nation only makes things harder for the Liberals to win government (even in minority) and will only help Labor retain crucial seats.
And like I said, while polls have Labor’s primary vote down by double-digits since the 2022 election, it’s actually UP since the 2025 byelections where they still hung onto Werribee. Their low point was late 2024 / early 2025 and they have slightly recovered since. It’s the Lib primary that is about -14 compared to 12 months ago, so the rise of ONP since Labor were already only polling under 25% a year ago has mostly come from the Liberals and consolidation of the right-wing minor party vote.
Bike Boy Conspiracy !!!
The evidence of the damage to the bicycle, kept by BB’s father shows the front wheel crumpled consistent with impact by the bicycle hitting the car rather than the bicycle being hit. That alone is sufficient to conclude that the bicycle came onto the road at speed from a right angle.
I don’t blame the boy and his father for seeking to profit from the accident. I do blame those who have funded the enterprise and persuaded these poor people to take an action doomed to fail on the basis of physical evidence. Have they not gone through enough?
Heading for $180 billion soon as its compounding.What is the interest payments on $160 billion btw?
Victoria’s debt tops $160bn as interest bill surges
‘Victoria’s debt has climbed above $160bn and interest costs are surging as the Allan government continues to borrow heavily to fund its infrastructure program.’
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fvictorias-debt-tops-160bn-as-interest-bill-surges%2Fnews-story%2F930135eef31f5181abe5a43fdd71cb2c&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPB-Segment-2-NOSCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append
I’ve been out of the loop when it comes to the VIC Election, but are there any battleground seats that should be watched?
From memory I remember:
– ALP held rural seats like Bass, Ripon and Eureka. With Crugnale retiring I see Bass as a certain flip for the Liberals.
– ALP held outer suburban seats like Hastings, Pakenham
– Outer Western and Northern Melbourne seats like Yan Yean, Melton, Sunbury (especially now with the LIB candidate for Hawke running) and Werribee (especially with WEST party) which formerly made up Labor’s red wall in Melbourne
– ALP held seats in the Liberal heartlands of Eastern Melbourne like Glen Waverly and Bayswater
– ALP vs GRN seats like Northcote, Pascoe Vale, Preston and Footscray
– Hawthorn, which could shape up to be a LIB vs IND/Teal seat
If we ignore the ONP surge and look at the electoral map through a normal lens of the Coalition being the main competitor everywhere, you’re pretty much spot on. I would say:
– Rural seats like Bass & Ripon I’d consider almost certain to flip, and while Eureka has a bigger margin, Labor’s unpopularity in the regions makes that very likely too, and the Nats have a real shot in Bendigo East;
– Hastings & Pakenham I would also consider almost certain to flip;
– As for the outer northwest, I’d consider Melton almost certain to flip, Yan Yean not far behind but also likely, while Sunbury might be saved by a bigger margin and a lot of investment including being the main beneficiary of the Metro Tunnel;
– Werribee with its margin slashed from over 10% to about 1% at the byelection is also going to be a tossup, but that said, given Labor are actually polling better now than they were at the time of the byelection (and the Liberals polling much worse), it may not swing any further away than the byelection already did. The West Party is the wildcard there though, the collapse in the Liberal vote might help the West Party finish second and win off preferences;
– Seats in the eastern middle suburbs should be a toss up. The swing against Labor should be big enough for the more marginal seats like Glen Waverley and Bayswater to flip, but the 6-8% margins in Box Hill, Ashwood & Ringwood may be harder for the Liberals to erase if there’s any sort of perceived threat of them having to form government with One Nation;
– Similarly, that same perceived threat could advantage a Teal/IND in Hawthorn for sure;
– I think what the Liberals do with HTV cards will have an impact on the ALP vs GRN contests, but if the Labor vote is crashing as much as polls say, I think Northcote & Footscray in particular could be GRN gains regardless of Liberal preferences, while Preston & Pascoe Vale would probably require the Liberals directing preferences to the Greens;
– On the flipside, if the Liberals direct preferences to Labor over the Greens, then it’s possible Richmond could be at play.
All that said, One Nation are a wildcard in all of this and if the current polling isn’t just a phase, they sustain that polling and convert it into votes (all big “ifs” because they don’t have much party infrastructure in Victoria), the map could be wildly different.
Seats like Ripon, Bass & Eureka could possibly be ONP gains instead of LIB gains, and some of the outer suburban “red wall” seats that have a low Liberal primary vote to begin with could turn into ALP v ONP 2CPs, which could potentially save Labor in them if moderate Liberal voters who didn’t swing to ONP send their preferences to Labor.
Agreed with Trent’s analysis above.
I’d be a bit sad if Labor lost Eureka though. I’ve met Michaela Settle a few times and she’s always come across as pleasant and hard working.
But it’s going to be a tough one, Eureka only covers the southeast suburbs of Ballarat now after losing the Labor-leaning suburb of Sebastopol in the last redistribution, and now covers the regional towns of Bacchus Marsh and Ballan, who I imagine are not that happy with state Labor at the moment.
Of particular note is the redevelopment of the Melton railway station, which undoubtedly has led to much disrupted train services to Melbourne.
The “Shuey Report” that the conspiracy relies upon was built around a pile of lies in order to fit the political hatchet job Shuey wanted to create.
The most obvious is the insistence that the bike was hit by the front of the vehicle despite the photo evidence showing that that the bike hit the side of the vehicle. Toward the front, but not THE front, which is an important distinction to make.
Another is an insistence that the car was speeding because Dan and his wife were lying about having stopped on the main road for a learner driver. Even though going 70kmph into a sharp, downhill turn would have rolled the car before it got near the teenager.
Or that the distance the teenager was thrown was because of speeding, even though you don’t need to be speeding to throw a person a fair distance off the top of a vehicle bonnet, you just need to stop quickly and let physics take over.
It also says the speed of the bike was slow because that the non-paved surface of the side street meant a bicycle can’t go “fast”. He has zero evidence or practical demonstrations to prove this, but it’s included to suggest criminal culpability by the driver for not reacting fast enough.
It also blames the driver for being “on the incorrect side of the road”, when there was no “incorrect side of the road” because it’s a one-car width street where the short centre line was already finished at the collision point.
“Just asks questions” about the police response perhaps being at the beck and call of Andrews even though he was an opposition member.
I’m surprised the conspiracists haven’t latched onto the death of Raymond Shuey who wrote the report as being the fault of Dan in the same fashion as the Clinton Body Count.
I’ve said most of this before but it bears restating. I have family living in the area of “that” crash and have passed through that intersection on many occasions.
I can’t overemphasise how dangerous a set-up this is – the path which runs parallel to the main road is 10-20m away from it and hidden from turning traffic by vegetation. Pretty well all the locals have stories of near-misses here (or at similar intersections along the same road). This particular intersection is particularly dangerous because the path is downhill at this point and a cyclist could be moving quite fast. I would not even consider riding along this path and am cautious even on foot. It’s not a paved path at this point, but it is at some other points along the main road.
I also don’t think it would be possible to take this corner at a speed in excess of the speed limit (50) without losing control of the vehicle. That’s different from taking it at a speed which isn’t safe for the conditions (I personally treat it almost as a stop sign).
@Trent says: Friday, March 6, 2026 at 4:20 pm
“If we ignore the ONP surge and look at the electoral map through a normal lens of the Coalition being the main competitor everywhere, you’re pretty much spot on.”
~~~
Are there any seats, Liberal or Labor held (besides Ripon, Eureka and Bass) that could be under threat from One Nation? I have a sneaking suspicion Morwell could be one of them due to it’s past of voting in an independent (although it could’ve easily been a personal vote for the ex-NATs MP)
Furthermore I remember you’re the go-to guy for Macnamara and it’s corresponding safe seats. Given that I forgot to mention Prahran as one of the key seats in my initial comment, how would you rate the Liberal’s chances of holding onto the seat against the Greens?
So according to some on here government should not spend on roads, railway, hospitals, Schools, entertainment centres AND on school teachers, police, doctors, ambulance employees – and the list goes on and on
So public amenity
They prosecute living in the times of horses and carts – where they have a job picking up manure
In a Nation with diminishing population
Tracee Hutchison endorsed as ‘Indies for MP’ candidate for Nepean by-election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracee_Hutchison
https://stplnews.com.au/latest-news/tracee-hutchison-independent-nepean-by-election-2026/
Tracee Hutchison Announced Independent Bid for Nepean By‑Election
Rosebud local Tracee Hutchison has launched her campaign as a community independent in the Nepean state by-election. She will contest against Liberal candidate and MPSC mayor Anthony Marsh, Darren Hercus, Libertarian Peter Angelico, and the Greens candidate. Hutchison pledges to fight for local healthcare, ensure fair government spending, and be the first woman to represent Nepean.
By Jay Scicluna 08/03/2026
https://stplnews.com.au/latest-news/nepean-by-election-2026-candidates/
Nepean By-election 2026: Candidates Announced
Five candidates have announced campaigns for the 2026 Nepean by-election following the resignation of Sam Groth. STPL News is tracking the candidates and key developments as the campaign unfolds.
By Jay Scicluna 09/03/2026
@Bludgeoned Westie:
I think the Liberals have the least chance (out of the main 3 parties) of winning Prahran.
The Greens would be the clear favourites but Labor also probably have their best shot of winning it in while, with the Greens lacking incumbency and a recent federal result where the Labor got huge swings across the area. That said, state Labor are not only much less popular than federal Labor but also less popular than they were when they lost in 2018.
It’d probably rate the 3 parties’ chances in Prahran at something like 65% GRN, 30% ALP and 5% LIB despite having incumbency.
Even if you look at polling now compared to polling at the time of the byelection, Labor are about a +3 on primary vote and the Liberals are about -14 on primary vote, compared to the polling at the time of the byelection.
Then when you factor in that Labor didn’t even run in the byelection, turnout was exceptionally low (about 65%), and in addition to the Liberals polling around 42% at the time they also got a 70-30 preference flow from an ex-Labor MP, yet still only won by 800 2CP votes and none of those factors will be present at the general election.
I don’t think Rachel Westaway having 18 months of incumbency can compensate for all the other factors that will skew very heavily against the Liberals compared to the very specific circumstances of the byelection.
If Westaway got a 36% primary vote in that byelection when the Liberals were polling 42%, then with both Labor & Greens running now, normal turnout, the Liberals’ polling back in the 20s now, and especially with the general election campaign (by both Labor & Greens) likely to focus on a threat of the Liberals governing in minority with ONP, it’s very hard to imagine that Westaway will even match let alone surpass the 36% primary vote she got at the byelection, and that’s not a winning primary vote when both Labor & Greens are on the ballot with preferences flowing at over 80% between the two.
My guess: Greens primary will be back to around 30%, Labor perhaps around the 25-26% range, Liberals will win the primary vote with something like 34-35%, similar to 2018 but in 2018 the seat still included Toorak so it still represents a swing to them compared to both 2018 & 2022. Obviously not enough to win a 2CP against a 55-56% combined ALP/GRN vote.
For the record, I calculated the federal result that overlapped Prahran as 34 ALP, 31 GRN, 27 LIB. I don’t see any reason the Greens wouldn’t be able to match that result at state level, especially with Labor being unpopular, but I think the ALP & LIB primaries will simply be roughly the other way around.
I actually think that the Liberals could achieve a higher 2CP in Albert Park than in Prahran. I think these days Prahran is the more progressive seat of the two, especially since the 2021 boundary change.
Prahran has a lot more Greens-friendly territory where Labor’s unpopularity is more likely to translate to Greens support than Liberal support; whereas Albert Park has a lot more marginal ALP/LIB territory like Port Melbourne, Albert Park & Middle Park, which in recent years have solidified for Labor but an unpopular Labor government is more likely to translate to Liberal swings. Its share of St Kilda & Southbank are the only two areas where the Greens are more likely to surge.
So in Albert Park, I can see Labor copping a big primary vote swing to maybe only around 28-29%, the Greens would probably only increase by 2-3% to remain under 25% which seems to be a ceiling for them there, while the Liberals could get a solid 5-6% swing to over 35% and even ONP would probably do a little better in Albert Park than Prahran too. Port Melbourne is culturally quite different to the rest of the inner-south.
I think it’s realistic that Albert Park winds up with an ALP v LIB 2PP slashed to under 54-46, while Prahran has a GRN v LIB 2CP above 55-45 (and ALP v LIB 2PP slightly higher still).
One seat that hasn’t been mentioned here is Kew – Sophie Torney got within 200 votes of making the final two in 2022 and had she done so the 2CP would have been very close to 50-50 (she’d have needed something like 87% of Labor preferences, not unrealistic in a teal-Liberal contest). This means that if there’s a primary vote swing from Labor to Torney, Jess Wilson could be at risk even if her own vote is stable or improves slightly. Since 2022 Torney has done a term as mayor of Boroondara, which will have done a bit to maintain her profile (in as much as you get profile out of being a suburban mayor these days).
As for Nepean, an issue which is annoying a lot of locals is the long-running roadworks on the freeway – which seems to be mostly about contractor incompetence but the State Government’s wearing a lot of the blame for it. Would hurt Labor if they ran, which they probably won’t.