Live commentary
End of evening. I missed most of the evening’s excitement, but contrary to my earlier indication that the Greens were well placed, the most likely result looks to be a narrow win for Labor, giving it a fifth seat in parliament and its only foothold in Darwin. There is no doubt that it will come down to Labor and the Greens at the final count: independent Phil Scott is set to bow out first with 17.3% of the primary vote and his preferences will do few favours for the CLP candidate on 20.3%. The Greens lead Labor on first preferences by 33.5% to 28.9%, but preferences have turned this into a Labor lead of 1890 to 1749, and there will only be about 200 postal votes outstanding. A pseudonymous commenter who presumably isn’t making it up relates that Labor got 78% of CLP and 40% of independent preferences, the former marking a decisive return to normality after an almost even split helped deliver the Greens their win in 2024.
7.45pm. The one election day polling booth has reported, but as noted below it only accounts for about a quarter of the vote, together with 158 postals, with the former in on the primary vote and the latter in on the two-candidate count as well. On this evidence it looks to be a two-horse race between Labor and the Greens in which the NTEC have picked the right candidates for the two-candidate count. The postal result suggests preferences are splitting about evenly, in which case the Greens lead over Labor of 395 to 293 would seem to be very good news for them. However, nothing can be stated with confidence in the absence of pre-poll results.
6.30pm. An NTEC media release advises: “907 eligible voters in the Division of Nightcliff cast their vote today at the election day voting centre located at Nightcliff High School. During the early voting period 2,657 votes have been cast at the early voting centre or mobile voting service. 441 postal votes have been issued.” They also have a thorough account of how and when the count will be conducted.
6pm. Polls have closed. Follow the results at the Northern Territory Electoral Commission. I’ll have commentary to offer if something comes through over the next hour or so, but after that I’m going out.
Preview
A Northern Territory by-election is being held today in the northern Darwin seat of Nightcliff, which became the first seat in the territory ever to be won by the Greens at the August 2024 election. That member, Kat McNamara, resigned in early February citing health issues, and a by-election has ensued with swift dispatch. McNamara unseated former Labor Chief Minister Natasha Fyles by 36 votes at the August 2024 election, after an unusually weak flow of Country Liberal preferences to Labor.
Both major parties are fielding candidates, with Labor hoping to add to its meagre haul of four seats out of 25 in 2024, and the ascendant Country Liberals hoping to add to their existing tally of 17. The Greens candidate is Suki Dorras-Walker, a community legal service paralegal and former teacher who ran for the party in Fannie Bay in 2024. Labor’s candidate is Ed Smelt, a Darwin councillor and civil engineer, while the Country Liberals have endorsed Anjan Paudel, a Nepalese-Australian lawyer. Phil Scott, who ran in the federal seat of Solomon in 2025 with backing from Climate 200 and polled 12.5%, is running as an independent.
The post will be appended with commentary on the count after polls close at 6pm local time.
900 votes on the day in one booth (a pretty standard number). Want that done in an hour? That’s one vote every four seconds. Let’s see you try it yourself.
Considering the NT population is about 30% Aboriginal (“DEI” being a lazy Americanism for “failure to be white”), I wouldn’t be surprised if the NTEC had a similar ratio. It’d be strange if it wasn’t.
Nightcliff is a very small area.
Not hard to count a ballot.
For anyone who isn’t aware, this is how a typical count goes:
The polling booth closes and the scrutineers and electoral workers all enter the booth. The returning officer gives all the staff (many of whom are probably doing this for the first time) a rundown on how things are gong to go.
The security tags are removed from the ballot box(es) and tipped onto the table(s).
The booth workers then start sorting them all into piles depending on who is first on the primary vote. Generally each person gets a batch of their own to count.
While this is happening, the scrutineers from the various parties hover about watching. (We arn’t allowed to touch the ballots.) Often they will ask to check a particular ballot and contest its formality. Occassionally this can get slightly heated and the returning officer has to step in.
Once everyone has counted their piles, the write the number of votes in each pile on a post-it note that is stuck on the table near it.
Then begins several recounts to ensure no errors were made, with the scrutineers continuing to hover about and do their own mental count at the same time.
Every booth workers’ individual count is then added together to get the final primary vote for the booth.
The scrutineers will typically duck out of the booth around this point (we arn’t allowed to use phones inside while the count is happening), and message the raw primaries to the campaign manager or someone in a similar role, who will add it to their own excel spreadsheet they are using to track the count. (These are the scrutineer reports you hear the pollies on election nights talking about.)
The returning officer will then usually conduct his own check of the results, and when satisified, send them through to the relevant electoral body.
Then the process is repeated again with the TPP, with preferences sorted between the two candidates the AEC (or state equivalent) has deemed most likely to make the final two.
Eventually everyone can leave and the votes are packed and sent to one of the main counting centres to be properly checked and recounted again over the next week or two.
It can be a long process.
Birdbrain,
Nightcliff is inner Darwin.
Learn your geography, will ya.
First votes in – polling day. Gr ens 37% and Labor 27%
Idiot:
A small area that still has over 900 votes being counted at one booth, as well as over 3000 in prepolls and postals.
Oh here we go. Grn 395 ALP 293 CLP 187 Scott 175, day booth. Looking good for the Greens so far.
CLP and Phil Scott not in the game. Early days, but not looking good for Labor
First postals too.
Expect the CLP to claw back some percentage because of prepolls but not enough to challenge Labor for second.
Ah, right on schedule.
Looking quite promising for the Greens so far, though we’ve still got a lot of prepolls to come.
I don’t think Labor will come back from here.
As a one-time long-term resident, Nightcliff has quite a few trendies amongst its inhabitants and the house prices near the water are eye-watering. Rapid Creek is/was the poorer cousin with lots of public housing, but is gentrifying rapidly (excuse the pun) and flats galore are mushrooming. The high school and weekly markets in Progress Drive characterise Nightcliff, as does the public pool overlooking Beagle Bay where I used to swim regularly. Great to hear Darwin has received a decent monsoon this year. Jeez I miss the joint.
On-the-day results are decent news for the Greens, but a lot will depend on how CLP and Independent preferences go. I would think the Greens would do pretty well off the Independent preferences because he’s one of the Climate 200-backed independents.
I should point out that the CLP put Labor ahead of the Greens in this district on their HTV at the last election, and half of their voters ignored it and preferenced the Greens over Labor anyway. If that repeats this time, should be helpful to the Greens.
Bingo,
dont forget Essington private school, the one all the aspiring public want to send their kids to.
TCP for postals now.. Greens having a win.
TPP is now in from the on-the-day booth. 53.8% to the Greens.
Roughly a quarter of the vote counted now, I think.
It will be interesting to see see how the Scott preferences split but a good start for the Greens
Postals (158 votes) done for 2cp: 53.8% to the Greens. Prefs (CLP and Scott) split 28-24 to Labor, so pretty even.
Oh, wait, no, I misunderstood, that TPP is just for the 160 or so postals counted at that booth.
MR….and Essington. You are so right. Not forgetting the pub and the bridge across Rapid Creek. There’s something about watching the magic of the raging tide from half way across.
Labor & CLP hardheads really need to have a look at the NTEC.
They count one batch of postals, then go on a tea break.
This is not the way it should be, and i suspect labor, green and lib posters here would agree.
It is not hard to tally, and publish primary votes.
Ben Raue of Tallyroom is saying it’s a double digit swing to the Greens on both types of votes counted at this stage
Patience is a virtue
What’s “Urban Voting Darwin”? Not the day booth, EVC (early votes) or postal. Is it the few dozen votes they get from hospitals and prisons?
Those booth workers have been working since before 8 am. They are entitled to breaks for pity’s sake. What’s the hurry?
Alabama.
They will have counted ALL of the postals received as of yesterday.
The prepoll vote of 2400 or so is taking an extra 30 minutes.
Wooppee.
At least they will get it right and no hanging chads.
I’m not really in any position to judge how someone else spends their Saturday night, but there surely are better things a person could be doing then seething with rage because the results of a by-election in the Northern Territory arn’t coming in quickly enough.
On the day 2PP in. Much better for ALP. 193 – 117. Green wins the on the day booth 2PP by 10 votes.
Dingbat:
No, they arn’t allowed to go on breaks, ALABAMA needs to know the results of this crucially important electoral battle right now!
Asha,
Its important for the Greens.
They gave up a by-election for their first ever seat and could lose about $1M a year in MLA wages. staff and office expenses.
That is a big gamble.
Okay, now things are looking quite a bit closer.
With three quarters of the vote still to be counted, I wouldn’t be calling it for the Greens yet.
2CP for on-the-day votes is 51% Green to 49% ALP.
Labor’s failure to win back Nightcliff will be the main news – but I wonder what the 2PP swing against the CLP will look like? It’s been a dismal night for them.
On the other hand, it’s been a great end of Season for the Nightcliff Football Club. Mens and Womens A grade teams, and Mens Reserves, are all in the Grand Final next weekend. And the women’s reserves won their Grand Final last night!
Day booth done for 2cp: 451-441 to the Greens (prefs split 193-117, about 60% to Labor). Pulls their overall 2cp down to 51.0%.
Maybe I’ve called it too soon! Encouraging preference flows for Labor. I’m not Anthony Green…
MR:
Oh, no doubt.
But the count going a little bit quicker isn’t going to make any difference on that front.
Only 22 votes in it now, Greens in front, so way too close to call
Just 4 candidates but only 1.6% informal is good
Asha.
I dont doubt that the last batch of postals will be the end. Two weeks from now.
was only 34 votes last time after all.
It will be a Labor pickup.
The CLP preferences will deliver that.
William, are you calling it?
Bama.
https://ntec.nt.gov.au/page-feedback
Here’s a link where you can complain to the NTEC about their hiring processes and/or accusations of perceived incompetency / slow pace of work / general life angst. Hopefully you have a more coherent thought than “DEI”, which really, is pretty lazy.
Why not say exactly what you mean? “My name is ALABAMA. I’m calling on the NT Chief Minister to intervene in the NTEC’s hiring practices because the hiring of (insert precise names of perceived “DEI” cultural, ethnic group/s) meant that 900 votes were counted slower than they would have been had the NTEC hired (insert precise names of perceived “non-DEI” cultural, ethnic group/s) instead.”
Another 32 votes in from “Urban Voting Darwin”, whatever that is. Is that the few dozen votes they get from hospitals and prisons? 10 Labor, 9 each Green and Scott, just 4 CLP.
I’ll call it.
Labor pick up off the Greens.
The gap between the CLP and Ind is only 7 votes.
If the Ind can pull ahead (unlikely I suppose based on usual CLP sttength on prepoll) he could leapfrog ALP on CLP preferences and then win on ALP preferences.
@Outsider
The CLP has been uncompromisingly conservative in terms of their approach to law/order, trans prisoners and the appointment of the Territory Administrator – plus they chose a pretty weak candidate in the end.
I would have been surprised to see them improve on their 2024 result here in a progressive enclave
I guess with just 1 EVC it wouldn’t be too hard to have someone there handing out the whole time it was open
Gap down to 14
EVC in.. Scott in fourth.
Time to roll up the preferences.
Greens win.
At this point in the count, my prediction is that the winner will probably be either Labor or the Greens.
And as soon as I posted the early votes came in…
If the preference flow from early voting is the same as on the day then ALP win by about 70 votes
Posted too soon. That was… actually surprisingly quick for the prepoll booth.
Hmm. I’m genuinely unsure how this will land once the TPP comes in. One assumes that CLP preferences will favour Labor, but who knows how things will go with the independent.
Greens with a 68 vote lead from the EVC before preferences are distributed, so 82 all up (counting the 14 from earlier) will it be enough?
Better preference flows than I expected for Labor, I assume that must be coming from a strong flow from the CLP, much stronger flow than in 2024.
Yes, go the mighty Nightcliff Tigers. Next Saturday is going to be a long day, and hopefully a late night.