Sky News has the first in what promises to be fortnightly polling series by YouGov, and its report includes a display with a useful range of breakdowns. Interestingly, it also has a chart showing results from three previous polls going back to November, none of which were published to my knowledge. The latest result has Labor on 31%, up one on a poll conducted shortly before Christmas; One Nation on 25%, up five; the “former Coalition parties” on 20%, down four; and the Greens on 12%, down one. The page also features video from Paul Murray Live which shows a Labor two-party lead of 55-45 over the Coalition and 57-43 over One Nation. Anthony Albanese is on 39% approval and 55% disapproval and holds a 47-29 lead on preferred prime minister over Sussan Ley, who is on 26% approval and 57% disapproval. The poll was conducted last Tuesday through to Monday from a sample of 1500.
The YouGov results are all but precisely matched in a new poll from DemosAU for Capital Brief, which has Labor on 30%, up one on a poll earlier in the month; One Nation on 24%, up one; what I will continue to refer to as the Coalition on 21%, down two; and the Greens on 13%, up one. The accompanying report has extensive breakdowns, most tellingly in relation to current voting intention by vote at last year’s election. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese on 39%, Pauline Hanson on 26% and Sussan Ley on 16%. Albanese is viewed positively by 27% (down two), neutrally by 32% (up two) and negatively by 41% (steady); Sussan Ley positively by 15% (down two), neutrally by 52% (down three) and negatively by 33% (up five). Hanson scores 35% positive, 25% neutral and 40% negative. A seat projection has Labor in a range from 87 to 95, One Nation from 29 to 38, and the Coalition from 10 to 22. The poll was conducted January 13 to 21 from a sample of 1933. The pollster also has an explanatory note on its approach to the problem of two-party preferred with a Coalition fracturing and running third.
Roy Morgan has a third successive weekly result, though I’m told this will not necessarily be a consistent arrangement. It has Labor up two points to 30.5%, the former Coalition parties down one-and-a-half to 22.5% (breaking them out for the first time to Liberal 20% and Nationals 2.5%, which presumably means it folds Queensland’s Liberal National Party into the Liberal vote), One Nation up one-and-a-half to 22.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. Labor leads 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 53.5-46.5, and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences, out from 53-47. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1653.
The Guardian also brings us voting intention results from Essential Research, which will presumably have a full report later today. It has Labor on 31%, down three on last month’s result, which was conducted a week before the Bondi shootings; the Liberals and Nationals on 25%, down one; One Nation on 22%, up five; and the Greens on 9%, down one. Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 39% and up eight on disapproval to 55%, while Sussan Ley is down four to 30% and up four to 47%. Albanese is deemed to have handled Bondi well by 36% and not well by 55%. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Friday from a sample of 1022.
Nine Newspapers also reports last week’s Resolve Strategic poll found an ongoing decline in support for changing the date of Australia Day, with 68% now opposed and 16% in favour, down from 61% and 24% last year and 47% and 39% in 2023. A Freshwater Strategy poll found 70% support for January 26, with only 12% opposed.
BK
I’d suspect that in the past the raggle taggle mob of ON candidates has flown under the scrutiny radar because nobody really thought they were a threat.
If the polling numbers hold up I’m confident that will change.
People like Rod Culletton will be exposed very early in a campaign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rod_Culleton
BK – Indeed. Their quality of candidates and even senators is pretty low. That is why come election time I can see One Nation’s vote reducing. The media will be over the first few dud candidates like a rash.
“There really is little difference now between the greens, labor and liberals. They could all be the one party these days. One Nation will occupy the centre.”
So this new left coalition of Greens, Labor, the Teals and the Liberals (according to you), now occupies about 130 seats in Parliament (or 120 if you exclude all the LNP in QLD).
How do you propose One Nation is going to win any power in a country where this delusional “left” coalition of yours has 85% of the seats?
Melania a huge hit…..
Suck on them apples.
https://www.foxnews.com/lifestyle/melania-documentary-earns-8m-opening-weekend-marking-best-documentary-debut-over-10-years
Early elections and double dissolutions are the political equivalent of following on in test cricket; you just don’t do it anymore because if you do, the consequences will be bad.
@PP – not difficult to get cult members to spend money on a grift.
It what the entire movement is about
Try harder Piper you’re being replaced by Jumbuck.
PP
Poor ticket sales for Melania Trump’s documentary have reportedly led to a rescue effort by the GOP.
Reports claim that multiple clubs, affiliated with the party to which the first lady’s husband, Donald Trump, belongs, have been buying out theater seats in an effort to mask the film’s struggles.
Still, the ticket-buying issue appears difficult to escape, as many people are reportedly uninterested in attending Melania Trump’s event even when tickets are offered for free.
Who does PB believe?
AFR: On immigration, which rates as the fifth top concern of voters according to the latest poll, 34 per cent of voters rate One Nation as the party best able to deal with the issue, compared with just 16 per cent for the government, 13 per cent for the Liberals and 4 per cent for the Nationals.
One Nation first took the lead on immigration in November last year with a rating of 27 per cent. Its support has grown since. The poll shows that on the cost of living, just 23 per cent rate Labor as the best party to handle the concern, while One Nation is on 17 per cent and the Liberals 16 per cent. Only 3 per cent of respondents nominate the Nationals.
I can’t wait for Pauline’s Battlers to realise that she wants them to pay the same rate of tax as millionaires and billionaires. Or ‘Flat Tax’ as she cutely likes to refer to it.
Immigration is a problem in a country full of migrants. FFS.
steve davis,
It’s just the same way Republicans bulk buy books by Right Wing authors to force them up the charts.
Basically false advertising of popularity.
steve davis,
Only 5th most important problem, lol.
pied piper @ #2008 Sunday, February 1st, 2026 – 8:56 pm
Was Battleship Potemkin a documentary?
There is a market for right wing Documentaries in America; however they are generally made on budgets of a couple of million. Melania was made on a budget of $40 million with an additional $25 million in marketing ($75 million total).
A rough rule of thumb is usually a 1 to 3 ratio of Opening Weekend take for a film to final take, although slow burners can be more like 1 to 4 or even 1 to 5. But given the marketing, this is not going to be a slow burner. An opening weekend of $8 million means the final take is going to be about $25 million….
C@t
Not with the cookers. “There will be no Australia left” “Lets get our country back” “We are losing our Australian values” Never heard such shite in all my life, and I thought older people were wiser.
Paulines got her movie on tonight in Perth.
Thought the piper would be there first in the queue.
Bigots don’t like having to live around brown people in the same way as 5-year-olds don’t like being told that they have to eat their vegetables.
Similar arguments, similar sentiments, similar blind toddler hatred. Most of us grow up from that phase but it seems a large number of adults do not.
When asked exactly how immigration should be cut, they’d much rather circle back to just bitching about immigration instead of come up with anything constructive, unless their real intention is to do something much more sinister to immigrants that they’ll refuse to say out loud in public.
Any double dissolution election will be in late 2027, on a “sensible migration plan bill”, likely one that reduces headline numbers too much for the Greens (and from the international student cohort); but not racist enough for the LNP (maybe even ups humanitarian intake?).
Bizzcan – Migration has actually been slowing.
There is also some migration that can’t be controlled. Australian citizens & existing PR returning home can’t be stopped coming into the country. Equally the Kiwis are also basically hard to stop entering Australia.
The International Student market is probably riddled with dodginess but a little bit of tightening of rules will probably drive out those coming to work on student visa out of the market. There is also a chance of getting the equivalent of “Whale” students – wealth one’s who don’t work – who are scared of going to America at the moment.
They don’t want to reduce immigration, they want to get rid of the people who are already here. ICE style.
Boerwar @ #1998 Sunday, February 1st, 2026 – 8:36 pm
JJ’s problem isn’t Licila cuprina – it’s Cochliomyia hominivorax. Rat Fucker Kennedy Jr is a dead end host, even for cestodes.
pied piper says:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 8:56 pm
pp having a wet dream there has never been a “ documentary “ that did as poorly as Malina … it took a huge record breaking $8m .. on a cost of $115m ,, as opposed to..
“Fahrenheit 9/11” grossed approximately $222.4 million worldwide, making it the highest-grossing documentary of all time at its release. The film had a production budget of $6 million and opened with $23.9 million in its first weekend.
Edit
That’s was released 22 years ago.. so double the takings in today’s dollars.
News.com.ay
Humiliating’ start for Melania Trump’s $57 million documentary as First Lady struggles to draw in viewers
In regard quoting from 9 Entertainment and issues where there is no audit
The Liberal Party Trublu (aka 9 Entertainment) give a headline to their weekly columnist Brandis that it is NOT the Liberal Party which is in trouble
He may not have noticed the Teals who now represent the seats which were blue ribbon Liberal seats or that the Liberal Party holds 28 of 150 seats in the Lower House, located where?- and that their polling continues to slump
No doubt he is writing his headline for next week
But where is a like contributor from the ALP, in the interest of balance?
This draws question to any polling published by 9 Entertainment- it is push polling for an agenda
And in regards immigration, are you watching the tennis and the number of flags none of them the now depreciated flag of Australia (debased by those hiding behind it)
Australia is a Nation of immigrants
”
steve davissays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 8:46 pm
BW
I can see the Liberal RW nuts of the punters going further right now with Hansons increased numbers and FB posts. The cookers are truly showing their numbers.
”
The PPs, JJs and LLs of this world are in a world of pain and are going berserk.
Their only remaining uniting feature is own the ‘Left’.
Taco Trump has ordered his Russian bots to watch Malina in Netflix in an effort to recover the her dignity.
Only three more days to see Melania at Hoyts cinemas. Only a six day run, only once a day and only some cinemas. Was told there were eight people on Friday at the only cinema in Canberra (Belconnen) showing it.
It’s a pity that the Australian MAGA wannabes apparently aren’t putting their money where their mouths are.
Though on the topic of migration…
For one of the world’s richest people, and the face of the world’s biggest corruption scandal with the world’s most notorious sex trafficker, Bill Gates is rather conspicuous as of late.
Testing the waters to pull a James Cameron? Or enjoying life before he gets a bit of Prigozhin therapy?
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2026/jan/23/james-cameron-left-the-us-permanently-covid-new-zealand
David
Carlos and Novak aren’t Australian.
citizensays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 9:40 pm
Only three more days to see Melania at Hoyts cinemas. Only a six day run, only once a day and only some cinemas. Was told there were eight people on Friday at the only cinema in Canberra (Belconnen) showing it.
It’s a pity that the Australian MAGA wannabes apparently aren’t putting their money where their mouths are.
_______________________
It’s on at Reading Waurn Ponds Mon -Wed this week.
Might go down for a look, even though I don’t follow US politics that closely.
Last movie I went and saw was the Bruce movie- Deliver Me from Nowhere and that was pretty ordinary
The only concern about Redbridge poll is that most Gen X voters (35%) support PHON
Gen X are among Trump’s most fervent backers… as a millennial I take back some of what I said about the Boomers, Xers really are taking the ball of awful and running with it
“It’s a pity that the Australian MAGA wannabes apparently aren’t putting their money where their mouths are.”
They spent all their cinema money on Pauline’s dogshit cartoon, last week.
Ven says:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 9:53 pm
The only concern about Redbridge poll is that most Gen X voters (35%) support PHON
___________________________________
Brain parasites that must have come from somewhere…
https://www.yourtango.com/self/greetings-gen-x-generation-drank-hose
Ven
“The only concern about Redbridge poll is that most Gen X voters (35%) support PHON”
Makes me ashamed to be a Gen X’er
”
Astroblemesays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 10:13 pm
Ven
“The only concern about Redbridge poll is that most Gen X voters (35%) support PHON”
Makes me ashamed to be a Gen X’er
”
Astrobleme
Only 8 % support Greens.
If it is any comfort to you my Gex relative is to the left of Greens in his thought process.
GenX is ground zero of the cookers. During COVID a distrust of institutions and taste for alternative therapies and conspiracy theories metastatised into full blown insanity – leading to 35% polling for National Pauline Worker Party. Imagine the figure for GenX men.
I saw some slopaganda of Poorlean with flags and F35s(!) and more Botox in her face than exists in the universe
subgeometer says:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 10:26 pm
I saw some slopaganda of Poorlean with flags and F35s(!) and more Botox in her face than exists in the universe
___________________________________
Not even original…
If Albo says no to Donald’s invite to the Board of Peace he’d better be prepared for a backlash. The orange one does not take lightly or kindly to refusals.
PP,
How many times have you seen the “documentary”? 10, 20 times?
“At 12am AEDT on Friday, Hoyts — which operates dozens of theatres Down Under — appeared to have pre-sold fewer than 50 tickets to screenings around the country on the movie’s opening day.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-31/melania-trump-movie-and-why-we-might-need-to-follow-the-money/106285248
BizzCan
Not original, but more from the Trump media canon. The jets are overhead while the botoxed Joan of Trump stares off into infinity, flags draped around her
”
subgeometersays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 10:26 pm
GenX is ground zero of the cookers. During COVID a distrust of institutions and taste for alternative therapies and conspiracy theories metastatised into full blown insanity – leading to 35% polling for National Pauline Worker Party. Imagine the figure for GenX men.
I saw some slopaganda of Poorlean with flags and F35s(!) and more Botox in her face than exists in the universe
”
subgeometer
Gex X:
ALP: 33%
ON: 35%
Libs:12%
Greens: 8%
Others; 12%
Maggie Court, who’s in the VIP enclosure, can sleep well tonight, as her record of 24 singles’ slams has not been overtaken by Djokovic. And Alcaraz has become the youngest male player to have won a career Grand Slam. A good match, but not as scintillating as last night’s women’s final. I found the commentators of the match pretty pedestrian.
So glad that snooze fest known as Tennis over! Now MAFS can start.
subgeometer
Gex X:
ALP: 33%
ON: 35%
Libs:12%
Greens: 8%
Others; 12%
======================================
Boomers are worse though as far as 2PP is concerned.
ALP 35%
Libs 21%
PHON 35%
Green 1%
Combined Lib and ON vote is 56% for boomers and 47% for GenX
Well done Carlos, suck eggs PP.
ven
“Astrobleme
Only 8 % support Greens.
If it is any comfort to you my Gex relative is to the left of Greens in his thought process.”
Sounds like all my friends… Most work colleagues are conservative, so I guess they’re largely ON now
Did Djokovic perform the traditional breaking of rackets ceremony?
@BS Fairman “Arky – The reason I say there won’t be a DD election is because it could result in Labor going backwards in terms of seats. ”
I agree with you completely about no DD! No need to explain. I was having fun with the way people on PB bring up DDs all the time in circumstances where they will never happen.
Gen X see a mortgage increase next week and another and another.
They know two things…,
1/When labor runs out of money they come after yours.
2/Labor cannot manage money .
10 years of deficits Coming if labor is not booted.
Who ordered the schadenfreude? Here’s a compilation of ‘Melania’ movie reviews
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/1/31/2366576/-Who-ordered-the-schadenfreude-Here-s-a-compilation-of-Melania-movie-reviews?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Me: None of us that includes PP, JJ and LL will watch Melania. Atleast read foreign reviews outside US.