Sky News has the first in what promises to be fortnightly polling series by YouGov, and its report includes a display with a useful range of breakdowns. Interestingly, it also has a chart showing results from three previous polls going back to November, none of which were published to my knowledge. The latest result has Labor on 31%, up one on a poll conducted shortly before Christmas; One Nation on 25%, up five; the “former Coalition parties” on 20%, down four; and the Greens on 12%, down one. The page also features video from Paul Murray Live which shows a Labor two-party lead of 55-45 over the Coalition and 57-43 over One Nation. Anthony Albanese is on 39% approval and 55% disapproval and holds a 47-29 lead on preferred prime minister over Sussan Ley, who is on 26% approval and 57% disapproval. The poll was conducted last Tuesday through to Monday from a sample of 1500.
The YouGov results are all but precisely matched in a new poll from DemosAU for Capital Brief, which has Labor on 30%, up one on a poll earlier in the month; One Nation on 24%, up one; what I will continue to refer to as the Coalition on 21%, down two; and the Greens on 13%, up one. The accompanying report has extensive breakdowns, most tellingly in relation to current voting intention by vote at last year’s election. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese on 39%, Pauline Hanson on 26% and Sussan Ley on 16%. Albanese is viewed positively by 27% (down two), neutrally by 32% (up two) and negatively by 41% (steady); Sussan Ley positively by 15% (down two), neutrally by 52% (down three) and negatively by 33% (up five). Hanson scores 35% positive, 25% neutral and 40% negative. A seat projection has Labor in a range from 87 to 95, One Nation from 29 to 38, and the Coalition from 10 to 22. The poll was conducted January 13 to 21 from a sample of 1933. The pollster also has an explanatory note on its approach to the problem of two-party preferred with a Coalition fracturing and running third.
Roy Morgan has a third successive weekly result, though I’m told this will not necessarily be a consistent arrangement. It has Labor up two points to 30.5%, the former Coalition parties down one-and-a-half to 22.5% (breaking them out for the first time to Liberal 20% and Nationals 2.5%, which presumably means it folds Queensland’s Liberal National Party into the Liberal vote), One Nation up one-and-a-half to 22.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. Labor leads 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 53.5-46.5, and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences, out from 53-47. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1653.
The Guardian also brings us voting intention results from Essential Research, which will presumably have a full report later today. It has Labor on 31%, down three on last month’s result, which was conducted a week before the Bondi shootings; the Liberals and Nationals on 25%, down one; One Nation on 22%, up five; and the Greens on 9%, down one. Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 39% and up eight on disapproval to 55%, while Sussan Ley is down four to 30% and up four to 47%. Albanese is deemed to have handled Bondi well by 36% and not well by 55%. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Friday from a sample of 1022.
Nine Newspapers also reports last week’s Resolve Strategic poll found an ongoing decline in support for changing the date of Australia Day, with 68% now opposed and 16% in favour, down from 61% and 24% last year and 47% and 39% in 2023. A Freshwater Strategy poll found 70% support for January 26, with only 12% opposed.
Mostly Interested,
If I were Albanese, I would call an election right now if I could. And I would be counting the days until the first of July 2027 when I could dissolve Parliament and issue the writs.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 7:12 pm
Jolly Jumbuck through the Looking Glass again. Look the other way and you will see your mate, Pauline, and through her to her inspiration, Trump. Then try and tell me with a straight face who the Authoritarian government is?
—————————–
I have been in internet forums enough to say..
But but trump… You know the president that has improved the US economy, that has reduced murders and drug deaths, that stopped the war in Gaza, that removed a murderous dictator that grasped power illegally. What sort of people hate a person that achieves this? Highly indoctrinated ones?
Seriously you cannot even acknowledge how labor are hell bent on secrecy and control and have been wanting to do this for decades. Australia card from the Hawke days. In the 1990’s they wanted laws to jail people on trumped up “hurt feelings”, in the 2000’s it was all about censoring the internet and now we have Albanese who has supercharged the control over the population.
I see albanese as palaszcuk on steroids.
Davidwh
Zero DD triggers – Albo unlikely to create any, and will go full term.
@Landlord of the Year
“davidwh
Going by the age breakdown, the Liberal Party’s future, if they have one, is to become more moderate.”
The Liberal Party is no longer capable of being credibly moderate.
That probably left town with Malcolm Turnbull.
The right need some moderate voters to win government in Australia. There are not enough right wing voters to win and they can’t succeed by discouraging left wing voters from voting like in the US.
By now, every moderate voter understands that if you vote Liberal, you get someone as right wing as Dutton or worse.
If the Liberal Party survives it is by accepting it is the Dutton Party, ceasing to pretend to still be a broad church, and recaptures the right wing voters from ON.
But to win from there would require a Labor catastrophe.
One nation like the federal lib/nats have poor 2pp ,and are close to little or no chance in Labor or non Labor held seats with a primary vote in the mid 30%’s or lower,
the seats which could be threaten by one nation candidates , are lib/nats held seats .
Rossmcg @ #1948 Sunday, February 1st, 2026 – 7:42 pm
Hubris beckons.
I put the 2025 Labor victory squarely on Peter Dutton being so bloody awful. This current LNP split is entirely of their own doing because the fault lines haven’t been fixed since the 2022 Morrison loss, who was also truly horrible.
Albo and Labor in general are not bad, they have a competent government and thats what we all want.
But there is no denying that the LNP have been truly terrible since Covid showed how absolutely bereft of any talent they are.
@Ante Meridian
“Mostly Interested,
If I were Albanese, I would call an election right now if I could. And I would be counting the days until the first of July 2027 when I could dissolve Parliament and issue the writs”
Yes, but the actual Albanese is a better strategist than you and understands that one of the worst things he could do is force Australians to an early poll for nakedly political reasons and that it would manufacture a swing against Labor and play into the hands of the demagogues talking about an unfair system blah blah blah.
With MAGA it’s “I love Trump because “. “I hate his enemies because “.
No real need to engage further. Someone in the states had an anecdote when he was with his husband on the train, overhearing some other guy say essentially “that lesbian bitch in Minneapolis deserved it.” His husband said “You’re disgusting.” The MAGA guy said “Fuck you.” Husband shouted “Fuck YOU!”. MAGA guy skulked off to another seat.
That’s about where it is right now.
Any hope of a Centre/Right Liberal Party disappeared in August 2018.
That should be MAGA being “I love Trump because (lies)”. “I hate his enemies because (lies)”.
@Rossmcg
“A week or three ago the consensus in the media cheersquad was that Ley had comprehensively outplayed Albanese since Bondi.
He was a dithering do nothing PM and I even have a vague recollection of seeing a story somewhere alleging nervousness about his leadership.
Now the coaltion is split and the same media people are running two obituaries: one for Ley and another for the Liberal Party.
I hope Albanese enjoys the tennis tonight, causing the usual suspects heads to explode. Again.
Some people are just so out of touch with what most voters think and what they care about. ”
*applause *
Spot on.
Arky,
It’s possible you might have a point about Albanese being a better strategist than me.
Nevertheless, if the current shambolic state of the former coalition continues, the temptation to go early will be pretty damn strong.
If I were Albanese, I would call an election right now if I could. And I would be counting the days until the first of July 2027 when I could dissolve Parliament and issue the writs.
@Ante Meridian
Theresa May wouldn’t agree with you (UK election 2017).
There won’t be a DD. The ALP primary vote would need to have a 4 in front of it for Albo to even consider it. And no a low 4 either, it would need to be closer to 45% than 40.
Arky @ #1957 Sunday, February 1st, 2026 – 7:52 pm
Tasmania Labor are not discussed in the halls of power in Canberra for a very good reason.
“Nevertheless, if the current shambolic state of the former coalition continues, the temptation to go early will be pretty damn strong”
I don’t think it would be, no.
Tony Tonkin calls out Tony Abbott’s hypocrisy on hate speech laws: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7A2fts_hmo
Okay, ‘Fess, I have tracked down the, will she or won’t she retire after the next election story?
In this 6News interview she is vague when asked the question:
https://youtu.be/OPRB_e2_aZM?si=0ngqzHZLzytq1Exw
However, Uncle Phil had this story:
Barnaby Joyce has declared he will quit the Nationals – a party he once led – clearing the way for a shift to One Nation and to eventually succeed Pauline Hanson as leader.
In a statement released on Saturday, Joyce confirmed speculation that had been building for days, saying he would not be standing for his seat of New England at the next election, due in 2028.
Barnaby Joyce has set himself up to take over the leadership of One Nation from Pauline Hanson.
“I am free to now consider all options as to what I do next,” he said.
He is expected to contest a NSW Senate spot for One Nation and, sources in the Nationals and One Nation said, if successful, eventually succeed Hanson, 71, who is midway through a six-year term.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-to-leave-the-nationals-reports-20251018-p5n3gm
And there was this from Andrew Tillett:
Pauline Hanson says she will recontest the next election with the aim of securing official parliamentary party status for One Nation after the minor party’s surprisingly strong showing helped it clinch three Senate seats.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/four-nation-pauline-hanson-pulls-off-senate-stunner-20250530-p5m3l1
So, is she going to stick around after the next election, or hand over to Barnaby? Who knows?
Steve777 says at 7:28:
Re Thomas @7:18.
Interesting take, although I don’t think that the Sydney Morning Herald and the Age ever supported Labor. I used to see them as more even-handed, as against the obvious right-wing bias in NewsCorp. However, that seemed to change late last year with management changes at the top, with the Herald and Age now part of the right-wing media ecosystem.
But the Herald doesn’t seem to have completely joined the Dark Side. I think they’ll stick with the Liberals.
=================================
I still see those 2 newspapers condemning One Nation, the Coalition, and far-right extremists. I guess you be the judge then.
@BS Fairman “There won’t be a DD. ”
Indeed.
“it’s never going to be a DD” should be Poll Bludger lore on the level of “it’s never lupus” in House. House did have a lupus patient once just as we did have the Turnbull DD once, but the rest of the time no.
Any look away distraction and propaganda which the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units will try this week and next week, will do them no good as other attempts.
The only voters which will take notice will be lib/nats or one nation who do not vote for Labor any way
Napoleon Bonaparte — ‘Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.’
Why would there be an early election? Why would there be a double dissolution?
Grub dropped his serve may of seen labor gov sports minister fellow termite and was in shock.
davidwh says:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 7:53 pm
Any hope of a Centre/Right Liberal Party disappeared in August 2018.
———————–
Liberals have been moving more and more to the left for a long time.
There really is little difference now between the greens, labor and liberals. They could all be the one party these days. One Nation will occupy the centre.
A lot of people will scoff at this but show me how the labor or liberals are anything but lefites?
They all want big spending big governments with mummy government controlling your life. They all hate small business and cosy up to big big corporations which is the new lefty thing to do. They have all expanded welfare to unprecedented levels and taken away the powers of employers to manage employees.
that has reduced murders
You see only what you want to see, Jolly Jumbuck. Why don’t you ask Renee Good or Alex Pretti whether Trump has reduced murders in the US?
Oh wait, you can’t because Trump’s ICE Goon Squad murdered them in cold blood.
The likelihood of Pauline retiring before the next election is about as likely as the old Skeksis emperor giving up power before it crumbled into dust.
re early elections:
NO! Don’t be stupid.
We love elections and opinion polls. Everybody else hates elections.
Forcing early elections really pisses off the punters who object to having to turn up every two years or so to vote. That’s why oppositions are always calling for them.
And a DD? are you kidding? How many ON senators do you want when the quota is in the single digits?
Take a chill pill, peeps. Albo didn’t blink last time and he won’t blink this time. Bradbury’s don’t Bradbury by accident. They play within their skillset and wait for everyone else to fall over.
_________
Am I getting the Ley (political) coffin nail Newspoll tonight?
@c@t “As long as you don’t drive a Tesla, Arky. ”
Never did, never will, so we’re safe there.
@BS Fairman – “Arky – We should threaten to defund the nursing homes if the oldies don’t behave.”
The massive right wing tilt of over 60s that kept the Coalition in office and blocked action on climate through the 2010s and early 2020s definitely had me suggesting much worse than that at times. Joking, of course. Especially when COVID hit and the right wing wanted to let it rip.
Jolly Jumbuck,
No one sucks on the welfare teat harder than Pauline Hanson. Only turns up to work in parliament 55% of the time she’s supposed to be there but still draws her generous salary from the taxpayers.
And isn’t it great how you disparage the social supports that Australian governments provide for their citizens, when it seems, if you look at the identities of those who support Pauline Hanson they are exactly the same people who depend on Welfare of one sort or another, Medicare and Public Education for their kids.
I can’t wait for Pauline to tell them she wants to kick out their supports from underneath them. Before an election.
But that’s not going to happen because she knows what will happen to her support if she does. So she’ll just carry on with her demagoguery and culture warring instead.
Jolly Jumbuck
Liberals have been moving more and more to the left for a long time
They all hate small business and cosy up to big big corporations which is the new lefty thing to do.
============
Don’t think you know what left wing is.
“There really is little difference now between the greens, labor and liberals. They could all be the one party these days. One Nation will occupy the centre.”
That’s great stuff, Jolly Jumbuck. You certainly have a grip on this Centre kinda stuff. Keep up the good work.
The Libs have been the party of big business my entire life and before that.
It’s like some right wingers only just caught on recently that the Libs (and their counterparts, the standard Republicans) are the party of big business and not the party of the battlers and it was always a big lie, but instead of going to the actual party of the battlers, they’ve just fallen for the new Big Lies of the Trumps and Hansens of this world.
It’s quite funny that because big corporations (wrongly falling for the early polling) thought the Voice was going to be a winner and got behind it early – out of populism, not some incredibly misguided idea of big corporations being left wing – we have seen far right nutbags turn against them for all the wrong reasons.
Q: They all want big spending big governments with mummy government controlling your life.
Australia has a Government sector at about 25 percent- what must you think of Western Europe where it ranges from 30-45 percent!
If you get a prosperous, happy, productive, safe and successful society with a big mummy Government (as appears the case) bring it on!
The collapse in the Silver and Gold price on Friday was spectacular but it has only really pulled the prices back to where they were a few weeks ago. The question will be were there people who bought in on a margin during the recent rapid rise who are now facing margin calls – this would send the prices further south.
I’m hard-pressed to think of a bigger business in Australia, or at the very least one of the biggest, than that of Pauline Hanson’s #1 supporter, Gina Reinhart. The Little Aussie Battleaxe meme of Pauline as the champion of the Battlers falls away pretty quick when you realise the wealth that is backing her now with their $$. What about all those Fund Managers that Big Gina press-ganged into supporting Pauline? They look pretty Big Business to me.
‘Ante Meridian says:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 7:20 pm
Anybody care to comment on the odds of the next federal election being held on the first Saturday in August 2027 (the earliest practical date)?
My thoughts are that, at the moment, the odds are looking fairly high.’
=================
Albanese will go to the full term as is his wont.
‘B. S. Fairman says:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 8:26 pm
The collapse in the Silver and Gold price on Friday was spectacular but it has only really pulled the prices back to where they were a few weeks ago. The question will be were there people who bought in on a margin during the recent rapid rise who are now facing margin calls – this would send the prices further south.’
================
I have some black tulips for sale.
The next election will be mass migration, muslim-bashing, MAGA, myopia and numpty nostrums versus sanity.
Labor will romp it in.
Boerwar
In that campaign, Labor wins, they were winning anyway. Labor would be worried about the future direction of interest rates.
Arky – The reason I say there won’t be a DD election is because it could result in Labor going backwards in terms of seats. They hold 4 in each of NSW, QLD, WA and TAS and 5 in Victoria and SA. The quota to get 5 seats in any seat is 38.4% at a DD which is probably too high for Labor to get in either state.
Even if they were to get to 5 from each of the six states, that leaves them on 32 senators and still relying on the Greens or Opposition to pass legalisation. There would be no new path for them to take in the Senate.
‘Landlord of the Year says:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 8:35 pm
Boerwar
In that campaign, Labor wins, they were winning anyway. Labor would be worried about the future direction of interest rates.’
====================
Labor should worry about: the collapse of the world order, a totally unpredictable military ally, a chaotic succession in China, the collapse in the global TFR, global warming, the Anthropocene Extinction Event, the increasingly rickety house of cards that passes for the world’s financial situation and…
‘The next election will be mass migration, muslim-bashing, MAGA, myopia and numpty nostrums versus sanity.’
The RWNJs and media haven’t learnt a goddam thing from the last election so maybe Albo will even increase his seat numbers.
‘steve davis says:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 8:40 pm
‘The next election will be mass migration, muslim-bashing, MAGA, myopia and numpty nostrums versus sanity.’
The RWNJs and media haven’t learnt a goddam thing from the last election so maybe Albo will even increase his seat numbers.’
===============
You do realize that the Overton Window has edged significantly to the right since the last federal election?
I agree with Griff. Talk of a DD is laughable. Why risk your own large majority to give your opponents a chance to regroup?
Jolly Jumbuck
“ Liberals have been moving more and more to the left for a long time.
There really is little difference now between the greens, labor and liberals. They could all be the one party these days. One Nation will occupy the centre.”
————————————————————
Hillarious 🙂 Thanks for the laughs. What does a party have to do to be right wing in your book? Campaign for a one party state?
The calibre of ON members – and usually their candidates – is severely lacking. It beggars belief that Hanson’s ragtag mob has the current level of support.
And there’s an obvious fault line to mine. Who is really leading the One Nation party?
BW
I can see the Liberal RW nuts of the punters going further right now with Hansons increased numbers and FB posts. The cookers are truly showing their numbers.
BK: Pauline & Co keep talking about the 2 issues that the ALP try to avoid discussing but are of concern – inflation and immigration (particularly from west asia). That is why they are up in the polls.
Pauline Hanson is the undisputed leader of ON. Albanese is the undisputed leader of Labor. Waters needs to keep an eye on Shoebridge. Littleproud has been called out by Boyce. The Liberals have a troika of wannabe leaders: Ley, Taylor and Hastie.
Amid the Australian polling news of this evening, I must note this good news from the US –
“https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5716988-democrats-score-upset-texas/amp/”
To flip a state Senate seat from Trump +17 to the Democrats winning 57-43 is a very strong sign for the Democrats for the midterms, and another data point for watching out for Trump attempts to suppress the midterm elections.