Sky News has the first in what promises to be fortnightly polling series by YouGov, and its report includes a display with a useful range of breakdowns. Interestingly, it also has a chart showing results from three previous polls going back to November, none of which were published to my knowledge. The latest result has Labor on 31%, up one on a poll conducted shortly before Christmas; One Nation on 25%, up five; the “former Coalition parties” on 20%, down four; and the Greens on 12%, down one. The page also features video from Paul Murray Live which shows a Labor two-party lead of 55-45 over the Coalition and 57-43 over One Nation. Anthony Albanese is on 39% approval and 55% disapproval and holds a 47-29 lead on preferred prime minister over Sussan Ley, who is on 26% approval and 57% disapproval. The poll was conducted last Tuesday through to Monday from a sample of 1500.
The YouGov results are all but precisely matched in a new poll from DemosAU for Capital Brief, which has Labor on 30%, up one on a poll earlier in the month; One Nation on 24%, up one; what I will continue to refer to as the Coalition on 21%, down two; and the Greens on 13%, up one. The accompanying report has extensive breakdowns, most tellingly in relation to current voting intention by vote at last year’s election. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese on 39%, Pauline Hanson on 26% and Sussan Ley on 16%. Albanese is viewed positively by 27% (down two), neutrally by 32% (up two) and negatively by 41% (steady); Sussan Ley positively by 15% (down two), neutrally by 52% (down three) and negatively by 33% (up five). Hanson scores 35% positive, 25% neutral and 40% negative. A seat projection has Labor in a range from 87 to 95, One Nation from 29 to 38, and the Coalition from 10 to 22. The poll was conducted January 13 to 21 from a sample of 1933. The pollster also has an explanatory note on its approach to the problem of two-party preferred with a Coalition fracturing and running third.
Roy Morgan has a third successive weekly result, though I’m told this will not necessarily be a consistent arrangement. It has Labor up two points to 30.5%, the former Coalition parties down one-and-a-half to 22.5% (breaking them out for the first time to Liberal 20% and Nationals 2.5%, which presumably means it folds Queensland’s Liberal National Party into the Liberal vote), One Nation up one-and-a-half to 22.5% and the Greens down half to 13%. Labor leads 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 53.5-46.5, and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences, out from 53-47. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1653.
The Guardian also brings us voting intention results from Essential Research, which will presumably have a full report later today. It has Labor on 31%, down three on last month’s result, which was conducted a week before the Bondi shootings; the Liberals and Nationals on 25%, down one; One Nation on 22%, up five; and the Greens on 9%, down one. Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 39% and up eight on disapproval to 55%, while Sussan Ley is down four to 30% and up four to 47%. Albanese is deemed to have handled Bondi well by 36% and not well by 55%. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Friday from a sample of 1022.
Nine Newspapers also reports last week’s Resolve Strategic poll found an ongoing decline in support for changing the date of Australia Day, with 68% now opposed and 16% in favour, down from 61% and 24% last year and 47% and 39% in 2023. A Freshwater Strategy poll found 70% support for January 26, with only 12% opposed.
”
pied pipersays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 11:17 pm
Gen X see a mortgage increase next week and another and another.
”
Do you understand the demography of Gen X?
Have you finished sucking eggs as entropy asked you to do?
Labor gave everyone a tax cut and got two surpluses in their last term when the coalition couldn’t manage one in a decade, but sure, they “came for our money and can’t manage it”.
They all want big spending big governments with mummy government controlling your life. They all hate small business and cosy up to big big corporations which is the new lefty thing to do. They have all expanded welfare to unprecedented levels and taken away the powers of employers to manage employees.
@Jolly Jumbuck
The fact that you think One Nation has acumen for fiscal conservatism is laughable in itself. I remember one story from a former One Nation official after he departed the party. They would have a meeting, and someone would come up with an idea, and that would be a policy right there.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 11:13 pm
Did Djokovic perform the traditional breaking of rackets ceremony?
===============================
Not that I know of, but if you are missing it, here’s some he did earlier:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoiKbORE81I
pied pipersays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 11:17 pm
Gen X see a mortgage increase next week and another and another.
========================================
Most of Gen X paid off their mortgage years ago. The fiscally incompetent LNP can’t ever achieve a budget surplus. Who would trust them with our economy?
Most of Gen X paid off their mortgage years ago. The fiscally incompetent LNP can’t ever achieve a budget surplus. Who would trust them with our economy?
@Entropy
The Liberals are struggling with this big time. Ted O’Brien was calling for spending restraint on Insiders today. But what were the Liberals doing in 9 years in government, leaving a debt five times more than the previous Rudd/Gillard governments? O’Brien even said at one point in the interview ‘we need to live within our means’, we have heard that before.
Washington Post
The powerful tools in ICE’s arsenal to track suspects — and protesters
By Eva Dou, Artur Galocha and Kevin Schaul
Biometric trackers, cellphone location databases and drones are among the surveillance technologies agents are using in their immigration enforcement campaign.
Ven
Kos Samaras says many Gen X are struggling with the COL and higher interest rates.
Political Nightwatchmansays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 11:47 pm
——————————————-
The greatest period of debt increase in Australia’s history was easily the 9 years of ATM LNP Government. Who treated Australia like an ATM.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 11:48 pm
Ven
Kos Samaras says many Gen X are struggling with the COL and higher interest rates.
———————————————-
Maybe they should sell an investment property or two. Which would help decrease housing prices and hopefully let more first home owners into the market instead.
Ignorant people should keep their arrogant mouths closed.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 11:54 pm
Ignorant people should keep their arrogant mouths closed.
———————————————–
Self reflection is good for the soul but I don’t really consider you ignorant, Mex.
“AI Overview (Google)
Gen X (born 1965–1980) has emerged as Australia’s wealthiest property-owning cohort as of early 2026, holding an average of $1.455 million in property and land, surpassing Baby Boomers. Often called the “sandwich generation,” many Gen Xers are leveraging significant equity, with 39% of Australia’s landlords belonging to this group.”
Many Gen X are wealthy, the same is true for people in every generation, many are not wealthy and are facing higher COL and higher interest rates.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Monday, February 2, 2026 at 12:03 am
Many Gen X are wealthy, the same is true for people in every generation, many are not wealthy and are facing higher COL and higher interest rates.
==========================================
True, but if on average they own $1.455 million in property and land. Then overall on average they are quite wealthy.
From Google AI:
Average Property and Land Value by Generation
Generation X (born 1965–1980): $1.445 million – $1.46 million per household
Baby Boomers (born 1946–1964): $1.30 million – $1.36 million per household
Millennials (born 1981–1996): ~$890,000 per household
Generation Z (born 1997–2012): ~$69,000 per household
Boomers are dying and (some) X-ers are inheriting. Such is the new patrimonialism.
William
That is true, Kos has said one of the drivers of Gen X shifting to PHON, has been financial distress.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Monday, February 2, 2026 at 12:16 am
William
That is true, Kos has said one of the drivers of Gen X shifting to PHON, has been financial distress.
———————————–
That’s his opinion, which he has been known to get wrong sometimes. Didn’t he famously predict Dan could lose his seat and his Government go into minority?
Alternatively they are getting rich, selfish and greedy as they age, thus more likely to vote right wing?
So finished the rebelling from parents stage and into becoming just like their boomer parents stage.
Kos didn’t have Andrews losing his seat.
Wealthy seats are more Teals than PHON.
Oh look, it’s the “economically scared” excuse for voting for explicit racism coming up again.
“Ignorant people should keep their arrogant mouths closed.”
And yet you continue to keep yours open. Curious.
Ghost Of Whitlam
This site is for talking about polling and trying to understand why people vote.
If it was racism, why has it taken Pauline 30 years to overtake the Liberal Party.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Monday, February 2, 2026 at 12:28 am
Kos didn’t have Andrews losing his seat.
Wealthy seats are more Teals than PHON.
———————————————-
“Could” was the word I used. Which this Sky News report seems to back:
“Premier Daniel Andrews is in danger of losing a slew of seats, including his own, and could be forced to form a minority government, according to new research.
Polling by bi-partisan RedBridge Group, which was published by the Herald Sun, suggests Labor is set to lose a dozen seats on Saturday.”
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/daniel-andrews-in-danger-of-losing-majority-government-and-seat-of-mulgrave-new-research-claims-days-before-election/news-story/402eab7438ebd7d54b9a82b679caf1b5
@Entropy:
“True, but if on average they own $1.455 million in property and land. Then overall on average they are quite wealthy.
From Google AI:
Average Property and Land Value by Generation
Generation X (born 1965–1980): $1.445 million – $1.46 million per household
Baby Boomers (born 1946–1964): $1.30 million – $1.36 million per household
Millennials (born 1981–1996): ~$890,000 per household
Generation Z (born 1997–2012): ~$69,000 per household”
Gina has 10 billion, the next 9999 people have 0 dollars, it would spit out an average of 1 million per person.
Averages in this kind of field are distorted by the top end.
Looking at stats like this and making declarations like “well if Gen X are struggling they should just sell an investment property” is not a great way to win friends and influence people. Plenty of Gen X ARE struggling. And when they read this kind of callous shit from people on the left, who do you think they go sign up with, believing that that person cares about them more?
Generations are huge. Generalising across entire generations is dumb at the best of times if you’re not being funny about it. This is neither the best of times nor funny.
@Entropy –
““Premier Daniel Andrews is in danger of losing a slew of seats, including his own, and could be forced to form a minority government, according to new research.
Polling by bi-partisan RedBridge Group, which was published by the Herald Sun, suggests Labor is set to lose a dozen seats on Saturday.”
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/daniel-andrews-in-danger-of-losing-majority-government-and-seat-of-mulgrave-new-research-claims-days-before-election/news-story/402eab7438ebd7d54b9a82b679caf1b5”
I don’t think Kos is to blame for Sky News’ distortion of Redbridge polling.
If you read the article, the bit about Mulgrave was Sky breathlessly quoting from the cooker “exit poll” of Mulgrave, an act which alone should disqualify anybody taking Sky News (or the Herald Sun, which also did it) seriously ever again. That had nothing to do with Redbridge.
Seriously mate, you just tried to quote one of the all-time hackiest Sky News pieces to back an argument.
I’m not saying Redbridge polling always gets it right (they missed in 2025 about as much as any of the others), or that Kos is always right, but at least I can trust Kos to be speaking from data, experience and talking to people, not from trying to generalise Google AI data to declare all Gen Xers are racist landlords.
“If it was racism, why has it taken Pauline 30 years to overtake the Liberal Party.”
Because the Nationals and Liberal Party already catered to racists. Spreading out the racist vote. And now the Coalition is dead, and the Teals have snatched away the non-racist votes in the cities, those remaining are moving away from the dying Coalition.
“Plenty of Gen X ARE struggling.”
And people voting One Nation won’t be doing anything to improve that situation.
“Gina has 10 billion, the next 9999 people have 0 dollars, it would spit out an average of 1 million per person.”
—————————————
Gina was born in 1954, so she is not the one pushing the Gen X average up. In fact Gen X is richer on average yet nearly all the billionaires are still boomers in Australia.
I’m Gen X so I reserve the right to slag them off.
@Ghost of Whitlam:
““Plenty of Gen X ARE struggling.”
And people voting One Nation won’t be doing anything to improve that situation.”
No shit?
But they believe they will.
And the challenge for us on the progressive side of politics is to NOT be 2016 Hillary Clinton vs 2016 Donald Trump, looking at these people, calling them deplorables, dismissing their concerns , and watching them vote for the charlatan who won’t improve their lives but at least talks to them, acts like she hears their concerns and will focus on answering them.
While the challenge falls most of all on our political leaders, do not underestimate the importance of also respecting the challenge in day to day life and online discourse.
“not from trying to generalise Google AI data to declare all Gen Xers are racist landlords.”
You and your bloody strawmen. I did post AI data, but show me where I declared all Gen Xers are racist landlords?
You are a serial confabulist.
Totally agree with that Arky, people sometimes underestimate how much their online interactions can affect their political party.
@Entropy:
“Gina was born in 1954, so she is not the one pushing the Gen X average up.”
It’s a mathematical example. And there are also more than 9,999 other people in her generation. And also most of them have more than literally 0 dollars. The point wasn’t it literally being Gina. You are very hard work.
“In fact Gen X is richer on average yet nearly all the billionaires are still boomers in Australia.”
Citation needed. Plenty of very wealthy Australians from James Packer to Scott Farquhar are in Gen X. The inheritors of fortunes and the rising tech billionaire class.
“I’m Gen X so I reserve the right to slag them off.”
By your logic, haven’t you got some investment properties to go sell first?
“but show me where I declared all Gen Xers are racist landlords?”
Yeah sorry, I was confusing one of Ghost of Whitlam’s posts with yours, you only generalised them as all rich landlords who couldn’t complain about cost of living, but NOT as all racists, glad we cleared that up.
But calling me a “serial confabulist” is a bit much. When I make a mistake, like this, I apologise. You’re just still sore about being rightly called out about your own strawman argument when you had that barney with TPOF the other day. Are you a serial confabulist because you invented, on this page, Kos Samaras saying Daniel Andrews would lose Mulgrave, or is it just a mistake that unlike me, you moved on without acknowledging?
GenX are probably the first generation to have a lifetime of Super.
I know in the US GenX were a numerically smaller generation than Boomers and Millennials. I’m not sure about in Australia.
There was an earlier comment about the Liberals needing to move back towards the centre. That’s undoubtedly true, but I’m not sure their membership would stand for it.
“By your logic, haven’t you got some investment properties to go sell first?”
Only by your strawman logic I do. Though overall I would like to see a decrease in number of landlords and increase in the number of owner occupiers. For this to happen many Gen X landlords would need to sell up. As they are the biggest landlord cohort.
I myself do not own an investment property or holiday home.
Hillary was right. Kamala was right. If calling out Pauline Hanson’s racism means the country will instead vote more for Pauline instead of less, that’s not the problem of those calling out racism or the idea of calling out racists. It’s a problem with the people. God help us if Australia goes down the same path of “you hurt my fee fees by calling me racists just for saying racist things” and lashes out in anger to install an incompetent fascist and their moronic party members into Parliament.
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Monday, February 2, 2026 at 1:04 am
——————————————-
I agree, if calling a spade a spade makes spades vote fascist. That the spades fault for being delusional.
@Ghost of Whitlam:
“Hillary was right. Kamala was right. If calling out Pauline Hanson’s racism means the country will instead vote more for Pauline instead of less, that’s not the problem of those calling out racism or the idea of calling out racists. It’s a problem with the people. God help us if Australia goes down the same path of “you hurt my fee fees by calling me racists just for saying racist things” and lashes out in anger to install an incompetent fascist and their moronic party members into Parliament.”
This is fundamentally wrongheaded.
You’ve had a front row seat to watch Hillary lose and Kamala lose (although Kamala’s loss is more complicated; Hillary’s was not), and your answer is basically you want everyone to repeat the path of the United States and then have a cry about it when it happens.
Well, have fun with that but I think I speak for a lot of the rest of us in wanting to beat the far-right, not lay down the red carpet for them.
Why don’t you go back to the days of the slavery abolition movement and see if what they did was build support for the movement among people and gradually persuade them of the error of their ways and win them over, often through personal connections from friends and respected community members, or if they succeeded by just standing in the middle of the square shouting “you are all racist!”
Every social movement ever has succeeded by social persuasion and connection. Gay rights and marriage equality is another great example, it wasn’t won by shouting at people for being bigots, but through the reality that people knew gay people as family and friends and came to realise that hey, why are we discriminating against my friend? My son? My work colleague?
Much as it is so often annoying that conservative politicians and people generally apparently can’t have empathy for anything outside their direct personal experience, that is the way the world works. There’s a lot of those people, and to persuade them you need to meet them where they live, not stand outside shouting at them that they are racist.
Arky
Positive messaging was a cornerstone of the successful yes to same-sex marriage campaign.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Monday, February 2, 2026 at 1:15 am
Ghost Of Whitlam
People don’t like to be attacked, and don’t like being looked down at.
====================================
Weren’t you one that first did that because you didn’t like my comment on Gen X investment property owners?
“Ignorant people should keep their arrogant mouths closed.”
I think it would be fair to say that much of Gen X were in a financially secure enough situation to buy a house for themselves in the 00’s to take advantage of Howard/Costello’s policies to benefit owners before the GFC hit in 2008.
Millennials weren’t quite ready before that, and after the GFC ended, that’s when house prices skyrocketed out of their reach and left them behind. That’s a reason why I think Gen X is doing so well these days, they were able to get on the ride before it took off.
Entropy, you appear to have forgotten that Landlubber is a conservative, who if he didn’t have double standards, wouldn’t have any standards at all.
“Why don’t you go back to the days of the slavery abolition movement and see if what they did was build support for the movement among people and gradually persuade them of the error of their ways”
Huh?
It took the Civil War to (partly) end slavery in the United States and it only ended by the Presidential Fiat of the The Emancipation Proclamation. Desegregation was done with the assistance of the military due to the hostility of the white racist population who hated non-whites.
In the UK it was a court case that specifically avoided the moral question and instead ruled on it via legal technicality. France, it was the Revolution that ended it and Napoleon who bought it back and republicans who ended it again for good.
Those things are the opposite of “gradually persuading them of the error of their ways”.
You see the US electing Trump as a reason to tread lightly, and to protect the fragile egos of the far-right. I see it as a warning that treading lightly doesn’t work because Trump style racists who are attracted to Pauline will always find a new outgroup to hate and a new reason to justify their fascism.
Go hard on One Nation’s racism. Go hard on One Nation’s incompetence. Go hard on the fact Pauline thinks Barnaby Joyce deserves to remain in Parliament. Go hard on their moronic, barely coherent, ignorant Liz Truss style economics and that their Brexit style blame-hatred of China will bring economic ruin as they start a trade war Australia cannot ever win.
citizensays:
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 9:40 pm
Only three more days to see Melania at Hoyts cinemas. Only a six day run, only once a day and only some cinemas. Was told there were eight people on Friday at the only cinema in Canberra (Belconnen) showing it.
– – – – – – – – – – –
Just in case anyone in Canberra wants to see it tomorrow, better book early. Ticket sales are going gangbusters.
Two sessions tomorrow, three tickets sold for each session so far – get in quick!
New thread.