Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)

Two polls point to a body blow for Labor in the wake of Bondi, but diverge on the impact for One Nation.

The second and third federal polls for the year have been published over the last few days, the more recent being a Roy Morgan result that has Labor down two on last month to 30%, the Coalition up four to 30.5%, One Nation down half to 15% (a distinctly different result from the other two recent polls) and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Whereas Morgan’s practice since the May election has been to publish large-sample monthly results compiled from its regular surveying, this result is limited to a 1676 sample over a one-week period from January 5 to 11, the former date marking the resumption of its surveying after a break that began in mid-December. Labor is credited with a 52-48 two-party lead using both respondent-allocated preferences and previous election preference flows, compared with respective leads of 55-45 and 55.5-44.5 last month.

The other comes from Fox & Hedgehog, a new outfit founded by former Peter Dutton staffer Michael Horner, and has Labor leading 53-47 from primary votes of Labor 29%, Coalition 25%, One Nation 21% and Greens 14%. Also featured are further two-party preferred match-ups showing Labor leading One Nation 56-44 and the Coalition leading One Nation 63-37, and a “three-party preferred” result with Labor on 46%, the Coalition on 29% and One Nation on 25%. Together with Anthony Albanese (33% approval and 48% disapproval) and Sussan Ley (19% approval and 32% disapproval), personal ratings were included for six further politicians, with Pauline Hanson scoring 38% approval and 41% disapproval. Albanese leads Ley 39-31 on preferred prime minister.

As well as extensive breakdowns on voting intention, the poll further offers the striking findings that 51% consider the Australian political system “fundamentally broken”, with only 22% disagreeing, and 55% in favour of “a pause to all migration to Australia other than tourists”, with only 22% disagreeing. Twenty-eight per cent favoured the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with 32% opposed. The poll was conducted January 5 and 6 from a sample of 1608.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,342 thoughts on “Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 47
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  1. Mavis says:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 9:08 am
    Joyce & Hanson’s rationale for hitching a ride on Rinehart’s jet is a hoot.

    Good to know that they have been bought and paid for by Gina though.

  2. BK says:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 8:47 am
    Sounds like I’m going to have to brush up on my Bible, Koran, Torah etc.

    Which religious texts have the best insults?
    ____________________
    And which “religious texts” will be accepted as religious texts?
    Whenever religion and politics mix mayhem occurs.
    =======================

    Yes, this legislation looks ridiculous.


  3. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 7:20 am
    HBG,
    You love reciting talking points of the Liberals and proto Liberals like Allegra Spender but not The Greens. What is the actual position of The Greens? It would be good to learn that from someone who is supposed to support them

    C@tmomma
    Hard being Green found out that it is Easy being Liberal.
    It is hard to believe that a person, who recited 25in25 like a mantra (translation incantation), would preference Labor over Liberal.

  4. I could think of nothing worse than having to schmooge up to Trump and his sycophantic stooges. I’m surprised that Rudd had managed to stay on as long s he has>
    Now, who might put his or her hand up to do the job?


  5. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 7:27 am
    The discussion about the proportion of spend on NATO by the US are largely irrelevant because Trump has already mentally already left NATO.

    It is not just who mentally left NATO, all his minions did the same. So it is not a good time to be NATO member. Looks like it was fun while it lasted. Planning and playing war games on how to contain Soviet Union and Russia.
    Now the irony is that they are desperately trying to support an erstwhile SU country (I am not saying that is wrong). All those eastern European (Warsaw) countries that joined NATO in the hope of protection against Russia must be feeling very nervous.
    Another irony is that Ukraine gave away all its nuclear weapons because of the assurances of security guarantee from US, UK and Russia.
    IMO, Putin has special hatred for Ukraine. He publicly said Ukraine should not exist. So all this peace talks between Trump and Putin are just a charade and smoke screen.


  6. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 7:29 am
    Wayfarer,
    Exactly. I’ve yet to read a rational, logical or cogent reason for splitting the Bill other than, ‘just because’.

    What would be the reason Likud lobby come up with.
    We have to understand and remember that Likud lobby are very clever.

  7. C@tmomma:

    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 9:13 am

    Mavis says:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 9:08 am
    Joyce & Hanson’s rationale for hitching a ride on Rinehart’s jet is a hoot.

    ‘Good to know that they have been bought and paid for by Gina though.’

    Yes, and the Electoral Commission needs to keep a sharp eye on donations to PHON.

  8. It is hard to believe that a person, who recited 25in25 like a mantra (translation incantation), would preference Labor over Liberal.

    Ven,
    Yes, and who always seems to be the first one to push the Liberal line. Hmm.

  9. Yes, and the Electoral Commission needs to keep a sharp eye on donations to PHON.

    Good point, Mavis. So, do you know if the private jet provision is classed as an in kind donation which should be reported?

  10. I think there is one advantage to the current AI boom, a lot more people are starting to understand the limitations of NNs.

    The boom will bust when more realize there jobs are safe.


  11. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 8:27 am
    Going back to criticisms of Allan… the fire response to these fires was little short of magnificent.

    They were timely. They were well-resourced. The incident controller decisions were good. The command and control was excellent. The volunteers were excellent. The data inputs were extremely well integrated. Management of the public was excellent. The comms were excellent. Loss of life was down to one person who basically knew better and paid the price.

    And yet all you get on social media is a wall-to-wall slagathon of Allan.

    Are Aussies turning into a bunch of nasty whingers? Is that the new Norm?

    Not all. A group of people, who voted for L-NP, PHON and other far right parties have become a bunch of nasty whingers. For example, look at TaylorMade, Jolly jumbuck, Lludder, PP, FUBAR etc of PB.

  12. IMO, Putin has special hatred for Ukraine. He publicly said Ukraine should not exist. So all this peace talks between Trump and Putin are just a charade and smoke screen.

    Trump would have a special hatred for Ukraine, via Zelensky, too.

    After all, Trump’s first impeachment involved Zelensky’s reluctance to co-operate in Trump’s scheme to frame Joe and Hunter Biden, as reported (ie. dobbed) by Ukrainian-American military officer, Alexander Vindman. Trump’s paranoid mind couldn’t resist suspecting a connection. As is the case with all Mafia Dons, suspicion of betrayal is often sufficient to have somebody wacked.

  13. Louise Adler – I cannot be party to silencing writers, which is why I am resigning as director of Adelaide writers’ week
    —————————————
    Will people call Adler out for antisemitism memes by highlighting the influence of pro Israeli lobby groups and even direct Israeli government influence?

  14. Sceptic at 7.30am on the previous thread.

    “But within the draft bill is a proposed legal defence to the rule that states the legislation does not apply to an individual directly quoting a religious text.”

    Does it say when the religious text had to be written? What if some religious loon’s sky fairy tells him (it’s always a him) to write racist bullshit in the future?

  15. As always, the impact of legislation will not “fix” any problem

    The legislation will set the frame work based on the expectations of society

    It is then over to citizens to comply

    There will always be those who act in bad faith, and that is the reason we have law enforcement officers, Courts and jails

    The usual crowd nit picking any legislation miss the point – the question for me being why do they miss the point?

    And on questions, given what Adler (coming from her publishing history) says, who voted which way to expel a writer and what is the background of those who voted to expel?

    Because numbers delivered outcome

    And I repeat, to me at least, this is politics at its worst dating back to the taking of hostages by Hamas AND Dutton, as leader of the opposition, and his media castigating the pm for not immediately going to Israel to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Israel pm

    There are some in the Jewish community who are very large donors to the Liberal Party

    There are some who donate equally to both sides of politics

    And there are some who are very large donors to Labor

    I might add that Adler is Jewish

  16. C@tmomma:

    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 9:46 am

    Yes, and the Electoral Commission needs to keep a sharp eye on donations to PHON.

    ‘Good point, Mavis. So, do you know if the private jet provision is classed as an in kind donation which should be reported?’

    Yes, they are required to report free travel on their public register of interests & whatever else Rinehart donates to them to further her influence on politics in this country.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/-/media/05_About_Parliament/53_HoR/532_PPP/Resolutions/9Oct1984.pdf

  17. With all these new “laws” I wonder how long until we see mass arrests of people who say anything not authorised. In the UK we are seeing comedians getting arrested, people who post on social media arrested, much like we saw happen in Victoria a few years ago. Arrested for posting on facebook.

    Certainly is starting to look like a fascist authoritarian dictatorship in Australia. You get to vote between lefty labor or lefty liberal. Essentially identical parties.

  18. From C@t’s roundup at 7.49am.

    “A regional NSW Islamic school whose principal once shared social media posts stating “Zionists should burn in the pits of hellfire” has seven days to prove its leader is “fit and proper” or risk being shut down.”

    I am troubled by stuff like this. There are no such things as “pits of hellfire” beyond the imagining of religious loons. Is the principal getting the boot for bullshitting? Plenty of other religious loons reckon people like me will end up in the imaginary place called hell because we won’t pay homage to their friend in the sky. Will they all get the boot as well?

    I have to confess to not reading the actual article because it’s paywalled.

  19. Diogenessays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 8:33 am
    Sounds like I’m going to have to brush up on my Bible, Koran, Torah etc.

    Which religious texts have the best insults?
    ———————————————–

    I don’t think you can beat Psalm 137:9 if hate speech is what you want.

  20. And I do agree, when the Right Wing of politics is in opposition is when we see what we now see – and in no way isolated to the current discourse

    And this discourse is promoted by their media, noting media is big business so the natural ally of the LNP

    The only influence the Greens can ever aspire to is if there is a minority Labor government (and probably not even then I would suggest) and they seek to destabilise Labor in that pursuit

    The stark difference is that during the Pandemic (for example) Albanese refrained from any criticisms in the interests of the Nation – and there were legitimate questions starting from using the ATO instead of Social Security and who the money went to (noting some Corporations refunded the funds, some refunded some and others complained that the funds were taxable)

    And in Victoria the headline attributed to the despicable Le Grand, again showing his face, is the funding of the CFA

    I am aware from some who do their business in impacted areas that the personnel, the fire trucks, the water supply assets down to the air support has been a massive and coordinated response, so the assets have been on the ground in rural Victoria

    But we have media

  21. Morning all. Thanks for the roundups Cat and HH.

    BK

    “I could think of nothing worse than having to schmooge up to Trump and his sycophantic stooges. I’m surprised that Rudd had managed to stay on as long s he has>
    Now, who might put his or her hand up to do the job?”

    The US ambassador role probably needs a reset anyway after Venezuela and with risk of a Greenland conflict.

    Regardless of my opposition to AUKUS, Rudd has done a pretty good job representing Australia by all accounts. He must have had to bite his tongue many times since Trump came to power. Washington won’t be a fun job for whoever succeeds Rudd. 3 more years of Trump and Vance.

  22. Europe

    Morten Morland

    Ben Jennings

    Patrick Blower

    Guy Venables

    Dave Simonds

    Sié
    “I said, Happy New Year 2026”

    Del Rosso

    Brighty

    Peter Schrank

    Tom Gauld

    Private Eye

  23. Entropy @ #77 Tuesday, January 13th, 2026 – 10:32 am

    Diogenessays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 8:33 am
    Sounds like I’m going to have to brush up on my Bible, Koran, Torah etc.

    Which religious texts have the best insults?
    ———————————————–

    I don’t think you can beat Psalm 137:9 if hate speech is what you want.

    Hmm,charming,nothing like a bit of ethnic cleansing. 🙁

  24. So old Chumpy reckons he will stop the religious loons in Iran killing their own people.

    As I see it, the only way that could be done is to take out the country’s leadership. I am sure Israel has an extensive spy network in Iran that might help facilitate that but it would be extremely difficult to get a successful result.

    I doubt that the Yanks could mount an invasion on the scale of the one in Iraq and there won’t be a coalition of the willing this time.

    By the way, old Chumpy reckons he is the head of state in Venexuela, and this is while Yanks are being told to get out of the country lest they get knocked off by the locals. Maybe he can be Ayatollah of Iran as well, I’m sure the revolusionary guard would welcome that. Greenland’s head of state is the Danish King (or Queen???). King Donald and Queen Melania sounds like a plan.

  25. Jolly Jumbucksays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 10:27 am
    With all these new “laws” I wonder how long until we see mass arrests of people who say anything not authorised. In the UK we are seeing comedians getting arrested, people who post on social media arrested, much like we saw happen in Victoria a few years ago. Arrested for posting on facebook.

    Certainly is starting to look like a fascist authoritarian dictatorship in Australia. You get to vote between lefty labor or lefty liberal. Essentially identical parties.
    ————————————————

    Do anti-hate laws make it harder for you to achieve your right wing fascist state dream?

    Diddums

  26. The idea that hate speech is acceptable as long as it’s because your imaginary friend told you to do it, is just laughable.

    A hate speech law that only stops atheists is pointless. Atheists aren’t the problem.

    Albo just wants to appear to be doing something, without actually doing something.

  27. “ Will people call Adler out for antisemitism memes by highlighting the influence of pro Israeli lobby groups and even direct Israeli government influence?”

    I wondered the same thing. She really let rip.

    180 writers have pulled out now.

  28. BK @ #56 Tuesday, January 13th, 2026 – 9:28 am

    I could think of nothing worse than having to schmooge up to Trump and his sycophantic stooges. I’m surprised that Rudd had managed to stay on as long s he has>
    Now, who might put his or her hand up to do the job?

    Richard Marles?

  29. On Iran – Trump needs a win on this one, and I suspect he’ll manage to appear to get it.

    He’ll watch how the protests go. If they’re about to topple the regime, he’ll bomb a couple of things and claim credit when the regime falls.

    If the regime manages to subdue the protests through excessive murder, then Trump will say “thanks to my excellent negotiation, I convinced the regime to stop murdering people. See all this evidence on Iranian TV showing how the protests were dealt with peacefully”.

  30. “A hate speech law that only stops atheists is pointless. Atheists aren’t the problem.”

    Possibly the solution though?

    We need a big door knocking campaign by atheists to convert religious nutters to atheism.

  31. Grime says:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 10:45 am
    Entropy @ #77 Tuesday, January 13th, 2026 – 10:32 am

    Diogenessays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 8:33 am
    Sounds like I’m going to have to brush up on my Bible, Koran, Torah etc.

    Which religious texts have the best insults?
    ———————————————–

    I don’t think you can beat Psalm 137:9 if hate speech is what you want.
    Hmm,charming,nothing like a bit of ethnic cleansing.

    ________________________________________________

    Bob Marley was into ethnic cleansing. Who knew?

  32. SL
    Care to comment?

    C@tmomma DP

    US plan to exploit Venezuela’s oil could eat up 13% of carbon budget to keep 1.5C limit, analysis shows how move would risk plunging Earth further into climate catastrophe. The oil extracted from Venezuela’s vast reserves is, according to industry estimates, the filthiest in the world.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/12/us-plan-to-exploit-venezuelas-oil-could-eat-up-13-of-carbon-budget-to-keep-15c-limit

    US is sinking the world economically and ecologically and in achieving climate change estimates.

  33. It might be useful to see the actual legislative provisions instead of going off like frogs in socks. Also be aware of the limits imposed by section 116 of the constitution.

    But when it comes to anti-religious hate nothing can beat some of the posters on this board.

  34. Cartoons North America

    Clay Bennett

    Pat Bagley

    Huck

    Theo Moudakis

    Britt

    Clay Jones

    Nick Anderson

    Dennis Goris

    Boris

    John Buss

    Matt Wueker

    De Adder

    Graeme MacKay

    Alcaraz

    The New Yorker Paul Noth

    The New Yorker Joe Dator

  35. Someone should point out to the sheep, aka Jolly Jumbuck, how many Executive Orders, ie ‘laws’, Trump has signed since he came to power a year ago.
    #hypocrite

  36. BK at 9.28am, with reference to Rudd quitting as US Ambassador.

    “I could think of nothing worse than having to schmooge up to Trump and his sycophantic stooges.”

    If we can’t have an ambassador from Chumpistan, why bother sending one of ours to them?

  37. Certainly is starting to look like a fascist authoritarian dictatorship in Australia.

    The official bellwether for a fascist authoritarian dictatorship is when unarmed protesters are shot in cold blood by government agents. So keep an eye out for that.

  38. TPOFsays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 10:59 am
    Grime says:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 10:45 am
    Entropy @ #77 Tuesday, January 13th, 2026 – 10:32 am

    Diogenessays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 8:33 am
    Sounds like I’m going to have to brush up on my Bible, Koran, Torah etc.

    Which religious texts have the best insults?
    ———————————————–

    I don’t think you can beat Psalm 137:9 if hate speech is what you want.
    Hmm,charming,nothing like a bit of ethnic cleansing.

    ________________________________________________

    Bob Marley was into ethnic cleansing. Who knew?
    ————————————————-

    What connection at all has Bob Marley with Psalm 137:9?

    Sounds like another TPOF look over there post, as over here is indefensible.


  39. Bushfire Billsays:
    Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 9:56 am
    IMO, Putin has special hatred for Ukraine. He publicly said Ukraine should not exist. So all this peace talks between Trump and Putin are just a charade and smoke screen.

    Trump would have a special hatred for Ukraine, via Zelensky, too.

    After all, Trump’s first impeachment involved Zelensky’s reluctance to co-operate in Trump’s scheme to frame Joe and Hunter Biden, as reported (ie. dobbed) by Ukrainian-American military officer, Alexander Vindman. Trump’s paranoid mind couldn’t resist suspecting a connection. As is the case with all Mafia Dons, suspicion of betrayal is often sufficient to have somebody wacked.

    BB
    You have a point.
    And Trump displayed his hatred and contempt for Zelensky when he first met him in WH and ambushed him along with Vance.

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