Nine Newspapers brings the latest monthly poll from Resolve Strategic, showing no change to Labor’s two-party lead of 55-45. Primary votes are Labor 34% (down one), Coalition 28% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 12% (steady). By far the biggest movements are negative ones for Sussan Ley, who is down eight on approval (very good plus good on performance in recent weeks) to 33% and up six on disapproval to 38%. Anthony Albanese also goes backwards, by three points to 41% on approval and two to 47%, but his lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 38-26 to 40-23. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1800, and should be followed over the coming days by a state result from Victoria.
Abbott? Lazarus with a quadruple bypass.
For Sussan Ley to still be leader after the first parliament sitting week for 2026
The federal lib/nats combined primary vote in the opinion polling would need to be around 35% , that is going to be very unlikely , only a month or bit more opinion polling left in 2025
“Pro-Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway infrastructure in Russia’s Rostov Oblast, group claims”
https://kyivindependent.com/pro-ukrainian-partisans-sabotage-railway-infrastructure-in-russias-rostov-oblast-group-claims/
I wonder if the Russians are enjoying their own version of the Troubles? They better be – they’ve brought it entirely upon themselves.
And all without Ukraine going down the low Russian road of striking residential apartment buildings.
Speaking of Russia attacking Ukrainian civilians, they were at it again for yet another day:
“7 killed, 23 injured, including children, in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day”
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-injure-in-ukraine-over-past-day/
Steve777
Primary votes are Labor 34% (down one), Coalition 28% (up one),
Statistical noise?
There is no change in PB or 2PP otherwise.
Albanese is going backwards in a net approval rating. That may not be an issue now but could be in future.
Looks like Labor has peaked and the Liberals bottomed for now, and don’t think that changes until next year.
Albanese has absolutely nothing to worry about. Now or for the next two terms. The LNP vote is soft, it is more aspirational. It is LNP voters who want to vote that way, but when the blowtorch is applied they will come unstuck just as they did in May 2025.
LIberal voters will find it very hard to vote for a WOman. It’s just not the way they roll. And rolling a woman will impact their vote even more.
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An article in the Age today about how Abbott thought he was an excellent opposition leader. He was a terrible opposition leader. He really was rock bottom. The old “our job is to tear down the government” does not cut it anymore. Thank Dog.
Holden – Interesting breakdown of where Australian voters see themselves of political spectrum. I am going to reproduce it here as it will get lost otherwise.
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AusPoll@AusPoll6 : How Australians describe themselves politically.
RedBridge | 25 Sep-7 Oct | n=1997
Socialist: 3%
Left-wing: 5%
Progressive: 8%
Centre-left: 9%
Moderate: 19%
Centre-right: 8%
Conservative: 13%
Right-wing: 6%
Libertarian: 2%
None of these: 27%
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Only 25% see themself as being left wing and 29% see themself as being right wing. Which suggests there is a big chunk in the middle or none of these (46%). At the moment, Labor clearly is get a majority of these voters to vote for them, either directly or via preferences (going by the election and polling results).
But there is an opportunity for the Liberals to possibly regain that ground, if and only if they were to move towards the centre. But absolutely nothing they have done since the election is designed to do that. At best, Ley’s efforts have been attempting to stop the drift rightwards and hardly to stir the party back to the centre.
All the RWNJ screaming about ISIS brides ready to run amok hasn’t hit.
With the obvious caveat that I was dead wrong about Abbott’s electoral prospects last time he became Liberal leader, I find it difficult to imagine Abbott 2.0 being anything other than a miserable failure. Even ignoring how out of step his political positions are with the general electorate, he’s pretty much a joke these days for anyone who isn’t a true believer and he has become increasingly, well, strange in both in demeaner and looks as he enters his 70s.
Asha: Abbott is only 67. 🙂
Ghost Of Whitlam – The same people demanding the government take no action are the same ones who demand action to be taken to free bogans arrested in Thailand or Bali.
Some people say Tony Abbott is out of touch with younger voters and hasn’t adjusted to life in the 21st century. I’m not sure where they would get that idea:
https://www.tonyabbott.au/p/remembering-maggie-thatcher (His latest substack post)
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
#ResolvePM ALP 34 L-NP 28 Green 11 ON 12 IND 9 other 7
Their 2PP 55.0 to ALP (respondent prefs)
My 2025 prefs estimate 55.5 to ALP
The vast majority of people don’t think in ideological terms. They want competent government that looks after their own interests and – less importantly – the national interest.
Too often, political observers see a vitriolic reaction to this or that controversial policy and assume it was because the party in question went too far to the right or left, when in reality it was because people were being adversely affected (or believed they would be adversely affected) by that policy. Cutting and privatising essential services isn’t unpopular because it is too right-wing for the average voter, but because it makes it harder for them to benefit from those services. Raising taxes to fund services and welfare isn’t unpopular because it is too left-wing for the average voter, but because people don’t like paying more tax.
Build a case for your policies and convince the public that is in either their own or the national interest (ideally the former) – or, at the very least, that it won’t impact them negatively – and most people won’t give a damn where those policies sit on the ideological spectrum.
The PNG NRL team is to be called the PNG Chiefs.
I thought there would be a reaction from southern state types against Albo giving PVL 600 million but they obviously appreciate the strategic importance
Today’s senior men’s game
PNG PM’s XIII 10 Australian PM’s XIII 28
It would be hard now for Abbott 2.0 to portray the image of the happy family man. I think it is more likely he will run in the next UK election, for the Tories or maybe even Reform!
HH:
Oh, yes, you’re right.
Why did I think he was older?
MABMW
Thatcher and Merkel led conservative parties.
OC – that makes 18 sides. So when do they start and when do the ‘Western Bears’ start? Because then it will be back to an odd number
According to Tony Abbott, solar panels are fundamentally Marxist.
Seems legit.
SL – I am not sure Abbott adjusted to life in 20th Century either. 🙂
The idea of bring Abbott back is bonkers.
The idea of using Abbott’s tactic of playing hard against climate change/renewals is bonkers as far too many people are “invested” in the effort already (roof top solar etc).
The idea of using Abbott’s tactic of playing hard against the government on a fairly narrow range of issues is actually sane and might work. However, there is not exactly an issue that is presenting itself to opposition to do that with yet.
Rocket – I hadn’t consider that. But it is possible he could do that. Wouldn’t that be crazy?
Asha @ #15 Sunday, October 12th, 2025 – 7:45 pm
^This
I was about to post something similar but you’ve effectively beaten me to it.
Most of the time, certain ideological decisions are unpopular either because it affects voters adversely (or at least they see it that way), or it seems like people in power are more preoccupied with that kind of abstract stuff over issues that “matter”
Outside of political bubbles, particularly those online, most people don’t give a shit about your “-ism” or what your score on a political compass test is.
Omar:
Ah, so that explains why the panels on my roof keep trying to seize the means of production and put it in the hands of the proletariat.
It’s been getting quite annoying.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 8:16 pm
The PNG NRL team is to be called the PNG Chiefs.
I thought there would be a reaction from southern state types against Albo giving PVL 600 million but they obviously appreciate the strategic importance
_______________________
600 million for a RL team. 600 million for Glencore. 2 billion for the Whyalla steelworks. Untold billions for AUKUS. Meanwhile, one in six children live in poverty.
Wouldn’t it be nice for a government to stick to its core business. Reducing poverty and funding health and education appropriately.
I like Rocket Rocket’s post -the remigration of Abbott is a happy thought.
Maggie Thatcher having a proper education …. as a chemist, wouldn’t care much for Abbott’s climate change denialism.
lol Asha, but if you think about it, it kind of makes sense.
I may have slightly misunderstood what he was saying though, not that I’ll lose any sleep over it.
Rocket
Perth 2027
PNG 2028
My bold prediction South Island or, less likely Pacifica 2030
nath @ #25 Sunday, October 12th, 2025 – 7:57 pm
Poverty doesn’t exist. I stood outside a JB Hifi one day and saw people leaving with new TVs, so clearly nobody’s poor. It’s just a myth started by entitled young people who want to be handed everything on a plate. Have you seen how many treats they have in their shopping trolleys? Sell your furniture if you’re struggling, which you’re not. 94 seats.
Omar:
I haven’t actually read / listened to Abbott’s remarks on the matter, as I would rather be doing literally anything else, so I’m not entirely sure of the context.
But thinking about it further, I suppose that the way people can access and contribute to the solar energy grid does have a certain communal nature to it that evokes Marxist ideals.
I am not sure if Albo was at the PM’s XIII game in Port Moresby but it reminds me of the most cringe worthy moment of Scomo’s term when he acted as waterboy for the Australians in Suva. At least Albo has some dignity
The Perth RL team. 65 million from the WA government.
Times of Israel: A Hamas source close to the group’s negotiating team tells AFP that it will not participate in post-war Gaza governance, days after an Israel-Hamas ceasefire came into effect.
“For Hamas, the governance of the Gaza Strip is a closed issue. Hamas will not participate at all in the transitional phase, which means it has relinquished control of the Strip, but it remains a fundamental part of the Palestinian fabric,” the source tells AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
On Friday, hours after a ceasefire in Gaza came into effect, the terror group published pictures showing armed operatives belonging to its internal security apparatus tasked with maintaining order within the Strip appearing in public for the first time since the previous ceasefire, in what appeared to be a limited show of force.
Surrendering to the Ukrainian Army is the best thing this Indian national could have done:
“Indian student captured by Ukraine joined Russian army to avoid drug charges, says mother”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy870p96yjo
Mr Majothi’s odds of returning home to India safe and sound improved dramatically, the moment he surrendered to Ukrainian troops. That way, he avoided the Russian barrier troops…
Editorial: Scott Morrison argues that Australia should agree to participate in any military conflict over Taiwan. He wants an increase in Taiwan’s military spending. Again, his interests are his own rather than the country’s.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/editorial/2025/10/11/the-one-man-super-scheme
Once a grifter always a grifter.
Asha
I know we’re just kidding around here, but I think this really goes to the heart of why they hate renewables.
(from SL’s link above)
BSF @ 8:23: “The idea of using Abbott’s tactic of playing hard against the government on a fairly narrow range of issues is actually sane and might work. However, there is not exactly an issue that is presenting itself to opposition to do that with yet.”
______________________________________
Abbott was a formidable opposition leader, helped by a govt. which shocked a large part of the electorate when they dismissed their own PM. Today’s opposition don’t have the cohesion or the attention span to focus on an issue for more than a couple of days.
”According to Tony Abbott, solar panels are fundamentally Marxist.
Seems legit.”
Examples of Marxist energy technologies:
– Solar panels, wind farms, geothermal energy…
Examples of freedom-loving, aspirational technologies:
– coal, gas, oil, nuclear
Not sure?:
– hydro – renewable but requires big investments by huge corporations —> freedom-loving
Rocket Rocketsays:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 8:17 pm
It would be hard now for Abbott 2.0 to portray the image of the happy family man. I think it is more likely he will run in the next UK election, for the Tories or maybe even Reform!
______________________
– Tony Abbott will take over the UK Conservatives.
– Scott Morrison will discover he was born in the US and will be the next Republican presidential candidate.
– Rishi Sunak will topple Susssan Ley and lead the Aussie LNP at the next election.
BSF @ 8:23: “The idea of using Abbott’s tactic of playing hard against the government on a fairly narrow range of issues is actually sane and might work. However, there is not exactly an issue that is presenting itself to opposition to do that with yet.”
It worked because NewsCorp was effectively a partner in the Opposition. The lack of an issue is not an insurmountable problem. They can work with allies to beat up this or that issue. We can see it now with the ISIS Brides. Before that, it was so-called anti-Semitism (recognising Palestine and not unconditionally supporting Israel); later it was the “snub” by Trump. If an issue doesn’t take, which they haven’t been so far, they’ll move onto something else.
This might be part of the reason why Abbott (and his donors) hate renewable energy:
“The US, which has positioned itself as a major fossil fuel exporter, sold $80 billion in oil and gas abroad through July, the last month with data available. China exported $120 billion in green technology over the same period.”
https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/something-extraordinary-just-happened
> When you import the latter, which lasts for ~30 years, you lessen your reliance on the former, which can only be used once.
Exactly right Steve777 & SL
Asha @ #10 Sunday, October 12th, 2025 – 8:05 pm
And it bears repeating: what seat will he contest for the Liberals? Age seems irrelevant these days.
Steve777 – But the ISIS bride tactic is not going to go anyway – they’re here now, we are about to send them back – and barring one of them chopping someone’s head off, the story will die within a week.
BSF 823pm
It is something I’ve thought lately – seeing as he seems to be living the single life in the UK.
They say that when Menzies had his extended time in UK at the start of the Second World War and sat in on UK Cabinet meeting that he was secretly hoping to be ‘drafted’ in as a compromise ‘non UK party’ choice as UK Prime Minister.
Landlord of the Year says:
Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 8:18 pm
MABMW
Thatcher and Merkel led conservative parties.
———————-
Not even remotely the point as neither ran in Australia!!!!
Australians don’t like women leaders because we are macho misogynists, far more so than the English (3 female PMs so far – all conservative) and die Deutsche.
Rocket Rocket – I wonder how far the idea of Menzies for UK PM got outside of Menzies own ego? I suspect it didn’t get that far. I know there was a significant amount of internal Conservative party disquiet with Churchill and his “eccentricities” AKA alcoholism. There was even a semi-strange Vote of No confidence in 1942 which went basically nowhere. But by that stage Ming was a replaced Australian leader whose party fell to bits at the next election.
I guess if Churchill had upped and died in early ’41 there was a tiny chance but I think it was all in Menzies head and a few people in the Australian press.
Abbott was given the biggest benefit of doubt I think I have ever seen by Australians, the media was lock step for him, even the Guardian was pushing a positive spin for him at times.
But still he was an utter failure as PM, got dumped by his own party in record time.
But im sure he dreams of being some sort of quasi dictator these days.
Trivia question (but an easy one)
Which two Australian prime ministers have sat in the British parliament?
MABWM
That’s a cynical view of Australians when women leaders have won elections.