Resolve Strategic: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

The monthly poll from Resolve Strategic records a slump for Sussan Ley, but little change on voting intention.

Nine Newspapers brings the latest monthly poll from Resolve Strategic, showing no change to Labor’s two-party lead of 55-45. Primary votes are Labor 34% (down one), Coalition 28% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 12% (steady). By far the biggest movements are negative ones for Sussan Ley, who is down eight on approval (very good plus good on performance in recent weeks) to 33% and up six on disapproval to 38%. Anthony Albanese also goes backwards, by three points to 41% on approval and two to 47%, but his lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 38-26 to 40-23. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1800, and should be followed over the coming days by a state result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,517 comments on “Resolve Strategic: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Thank Dog upNorth Is back to pull everyone in to line.

    I too support the leader (although of course it is filtered through the Greens!!!). The smile and nod from Albo was hilarious! Rudd took it like a champ. All is forgiven.

    The Herald-Sun article was appalling. The alleged journalist’s wife “works” with me. I’ve been there for 25 years and I’ve never seen her or met her. In fairness she’s never met me either.

    Trump posted a motion picture of himself shitting on the good Bergers of Washington. What an imbecile. Imagine how scary it would be if he were a competent fascist and not just a complete boofhead.

    Mike Johnson is an effing weirdo.

    Confessions is not a pissant.

  2. Upnorth, I don’t envy you the climate there! Looking forward to the Ashes when the Poms come out for their next thrashing. 🙂

    Have you tried any airag yet?

  3. UK Voting Intention Via @YouGov 19-20 Oct:

    RFM: 26% (-1)
    LAB: 20% (=)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 15% (-1)
    GRN: 15% (+2)

    Seat Projection from this Poll:

    RFM: 294
    LAB: 118
    LDM: 88
    SNP: 47
    CON: 36
    GRN: 31
    Others: 10
    PLC: 7

  4. Good god, the mini-me Trump in Florida has gone full RFKJ. Ivermectin can now cure cancer.

    Florida’s plan to bankroll ivermectin research comes as prescription rates for the drug this year are nearly twice as high as pre-pandemic prescribing levels, according to electronic health record data analyzed by a Virginia Tech-UCLA research team this month. After reaching a peak in 2021, prescriptions fell in 2022 but began increasing again in 2024 — and then continued to rise in the first half of this year, according to the data.

    Specialists say interest in ivermectin for cancer care following Rogan’s podcast is probably a factor in its resurgence. Gibson’s appearance on Rogan’s show went viral, with almost 12 million views on YouTube and countless more as clips rebounded across social media.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/10/21/ivermectin-joe-rogan-florida-cancer/

  5. newy boysays:
    Tuesday, October 21, 2025 at 9:36 pm
    Upnorth, I don’t envy you the climate there! Looking forward to the Ashes when the Poms come out for their next thrashing.

    Have you tried any airag yet?
    中华人民共和国
    The old man is having some very serious surgery on the ticker tomorrow in Townsville. I feel quite guilty I’m not there. I did promise him I’ll get back for Christmas this year though. Something special about the Poms copping a flogging on Boxing Day and sitting with mum and dad watching.

    I have had Airag before. Not this trip though. We give the local herders water from our operation and that’s been a god send for them.

    The South Gobi is very dry most times so this year’s early snow is unusual as was good winter rain. However when we first ran them water they gave us a big feast and lots of Airag as it was in the big drought. I was crook for a week from memory!

  6. Ahh, thanks once again HH.
    I thought that YouGov poll was due any hour.

    The previous Seat Projection poll had Reform well above 400 seats, Labour in double-digit figures and the Tories in single figures.

    Looks like somewhat of a comeback by the majors, but the Greens at 31 seats (ie: up 27)???

  7. I would not worry too much about what US citizens might make of Rudd.
    My observation when in the States was that a host of its citizens did not know much beyond their own back yard.
    Actual experiences – minor and amusing:
    *US citizen at a post office was puzzled why I wanted more than a 35 cent-stamp – back then – to send a letter to Oz. She thought 35 cents stamps covered the whole world.
    *On Amtrak, fellow passenger thought we had travelled to the US by train. She said, “My, oh my, that is a long way to come”
    * To many American ears there is no difference between the word “Austria” and “Australia”. It was often noticed and said to me, ” Gee, how well you speak English”!
    *If there was even the vaguest notion of Australia it was seen as some kind of 19th Century Texas or similar.
    Americans, despite appearances are not stupid, but being so wrapped up in their concept of the Middle Kingdom, they are largely ignorant/unaware and distant from what goes on the rest of the US, let alone the rest of the world.
    The vast majority of US citizens will not know Rudd exists and care even less.
    I think the US is a great place to visit.
    At home, Americans are largely friendly and polite.
    I would never want to live there.

  8. Upnorth,
    Great to see you pop back up. Do you think you might be able to hang around in Oz for another PB Get Together? I think my ‘special guest’ should finally be here by December and I would love him to meet the Bludger crew.

  9. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, October 21, 2025 at 10:08 pm
    Upnorth,
    Great to see you pop back up. Do you think you might be able to hang around in Oz for another PB Get Together? I think my ‘special guest’ should finally be here by December and I would love him to meet the Bludger crew.
    中华人民共和国
    For you my dearest C@t I shall make my best endeavours. Maybe before Christmas? Love to meet your special guest. I really enjoyed our last get together. Assuming dad’s surgery goes well tomorrow I think it’s a goer.

  10. Engineering is in my view an unbelievable career, you get paid to design stuff, or get paid to make it happen, but even better, other people put up the resources. In the end you get to stand back and say, look at that, I helped make it happen.

    After you have been at it for 50 years you get to see things you put a lot of effort into pulled down, that is a bit sad, but oh well, the new stuff is so much better.

    You do need a reasonable ATAR score to get through the maths, but just as kids with high ATAR scores don’t necessarily make good doctors, high ATAR scores don’t guarantee you will get a good Engineer, you have to love the game.

  11. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, October 21, 2025 at 4:58 pm
    Hack

    It may soon be done for them. Their PV in SA is 21% and PHON is now on 19%.

    Incredibly, Alex Antic shows no sign of letting up in his drive for RW Christian evangelist policies. They are lemmings.

    Ideologically-captive…in one of the least ideologically-attached electorates on the planet….they are nuts.

  12. I see that the usuals are still trying to pin Labor for the Voice fail.

    Before Dutton (and Bandt) opposed the referendum, support as polled was around 60%.

    Once Dutton swung in against it (and Bandt flipped), support as polled went down to 40%.

    Those trying to smear Labor for the Voice fail should spend a nanosecond reflecting on the comprehensive campaign of lies, fear mongering and outright misrepresentation by those opposing..

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