DemosAU has published a Victorian poll encompassing both state and federal voting intention, the former of which has the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 26%, Coalition 38% and Greens 15%. The accompanying report features fine-grained geographic and demographic breakdowns of the results. The poll also finds Brad Battin leading Jacinta Allan 37-32 on preferred premier; 57% in favour and 19% opposed to Labor’s work-from-home policy; and only 25% considering the state is headed in the right direction, compared with 58% for wrong direction.
The federal voting intention question has Labor leading 55-45, compared with 56.4-43.6 in the state at the May federal election. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down about two points on the election result), Coalition 29% (down about three), the Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation almost doubling to 12%. The poll was conducted September 2 to 9 from a sample of 1327.
Further Victorian state news:
• Two Labor MPs who have been in parliament since 2018 announced this week they would not seek re-election: Steve McGhie, member for the troublesome outer western Melbourne seat of Melton since 2018, and Jackson Taylor, who narrowly gained the eastern suburbs seat of Bayswater in 2018 and was handily re-elected in 2022. There has been no indication as to who might succeed them as Labor candidates, but Rachel Eddie of The Age reports Moorabool councillor Jarrod Bingham, who polled 5.8% as an independent in 2022, may run for the Liberals.
• The Age’s CBD column noted this week that Liberal MLC Nick McGowan has taken to styling himself as “your local MP in Ringwood” on emails to supporters, all but confirming speculation he will run for preselection in the lower house seat of that name. The seat was retained for Labor in 2022 on a 7.5% margin by Will Fowles, who has sat as an independent since being evicted from the parliamentary party in August 2023. Fowles has indicated he may follow the opposite course from McGowan in running for the Legislative Council.
• The Greens have announced public school teacher Campbell Gome will again be the party’s candidate in Northcote, where he fell 184 votes short in 2022.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Same story as Dutton. Even Stevens until it actually comes to a vote and people turn their attention to who and what the LNP in Viktoria actually are. The pop won’t vote for the South Gileadeans once they focus.
Jacinta will be just fine. Even on these numbers she holds government.
The Libs will tear and sue themselves apart.
I feel like it could be a greens wipeout in the inner north if this keeps up, they could get up to 8 seats.
If I understand this poll correctly, it is a poll of 1,327 Victorians taken between 2-9 September re: their voting intentions at a Victorian State Election level and separate questions asking Victorians their voting intentions at a Federal Election level.
At the May 2025 Federal Election One Nation received a primary vote of 5.79% in Victoria (a large primary vote swing towards One Nation in Victoria of 1.96% since the last 2022 Fed election). This Demos poll now finds One Nation’s primary vote in Victoria for a Federal Election has more than doubled in just 4 and half months to 12% (a massive primary vote increase of 6.21% since May) at the expense of the Labor Party primary vote (down 2% since May) and the LNP primary vote (down 3% since May). I suspect the Greens are losing some votes to the Labor Party (which explains the o.6% decline in the Greens primary vote since May) whilst One Nation is also hoovering up the primary votes of the smaller right-wing parties. I think this poll for Victoria implies One Nation’s primary vote in the other 5 states and the NT would also be surging (which other polls since the May 2025 election are uniformly identifying) with some states possibly already above 15% primary vote for One Nation.
Based upon One Nation’s primary vote at the Federal election level in Victoria being 12%, I think it is safe to say at least 12% of the 21% Others primary vote recorded at the Victoria State Election level in the Demos poll is for One Nation. Additionally, combined with the LNP 38% primary vote and the fact more than 74% of One Nation preferences at the May 2025 Fed election went to the LNP, I believe the 51-49 2PP result in the Demos poll in favour of the LNP at the Victorian State election level understates by a very large margin the LNP 2PP advantage over Labor for a Victoria state election. I would safely forecast based on this Demos result the Allan Labor Govt is facing a landslide defeat in November 2026 on a 2PP of at least 55-45 in favour of the LNP largely due to the primary vote surge to One Nation.
This Demos poll (and other polls released since the May election) indicate this primary vote surge to One Nation is actually accelerating and it is now not beyond the realms of possibility that One Nation grows into the 15%-20% primary vote range nationally over the next 12 months as it strips votes from both the LNP and the Labor Party. We have seen and continue to see the same pattern with Reform UK and in France and Germany.
Story needs moar dragons.
Rob
One Nation is no Reform Party, Le Pen Party or AFD, and the issues and voting systems in Europe are very different to Australia. It wasn’t that long ago, the Greens were openly talking about winning 25 seats in the Federal Parliament.
@Rob That assumes One Nation will run any sort of campaign in Victoria, even down to actually nominating candidates in all 88 seats. They never have and it has always shown in the results. Hanson is not Farage, and Victoria is not the UK.
Key update:
Definitely True 8
Probably True 2
Probably False 0
Definitely False 4
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 9
Probably True 1
Probably False 0
Definitely False 4
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
For anyone to use for their own key assessment.
Key 1: Polls show the gov with a swing towards it in the 2PP at the half-way point of the term
Key 2: No close leadership spill in the incumbent party
Key 3: Incumbent party leader is the same as the last election
Key 4: No third party with 20% or more of the primary votes
Key 5: The economy is not in recession/people don’t feel like they are in a recession
Key 6: Real per capita gdp growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms
Key 7: Major Policy Change
Key 8: No major, violent, widespread social unrest
Key 9: No major scandal recognised by both sides of politics
Key 10: No security failure
Key 11: Major security success, like winning a war (or reducing crime rates)
Key 12: The incumbent party leader is appealing to moderate voters of the challenging party
Key 13: The leader of the challenging party is not appealing to moderate voters of the incumbent party
Key 14: True if there’s something triggering a ‘Rally around the flag effect’
Arange, those keys are very subjevtive. And I disagree with some you have awarded to Allan.
Key 6; There is no evidence there has been real GDP capita growth in this parliamentry term, please show proof.
Key 7; There has been no major policy change that I would consititute as helping the government, SRL has been going on for years so it isn’t a change.
Key 8; This is the most subjective one, Every single week we get major protests in Melbourne over palestine and we get right-wing protests outside the steps of parliament house. I’m not sure what your criteria of “unrest” is, But I am also calling this key subjective.
Key 12; Allan has no appeal to moderate voters (But the Libs don’t either so nobody gets this key)
Key 13; I would agree Labor gets this key
I get 8 False keys for Labor with only 6 True.
I give Labor only keys 2,4,5,9,10 and 13. The rest I say are false but they are subjective.
I would remind you Allan Lichtman was wrong in 2024 in USA, so keys mean absolutely nothing. Under your keys, Labor would have won QLD 2024 unless I am mistaken.
As for this poll? All I want to say about it is “told ya so”
Daniel Tsays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 3:08 pm
“Key 6; There is no evidence there has been real GDP capita growth in this parliamentry term, please show proof.”
https://www.budget.vic.gov.au/growing-economy
Daniel Tsays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 3:08 pm
“I would remind you Allan Lichtman was wrong in 2024 in USA, so keys mean absolutely nothing.”
I suggest you continue on the main thread. Also you were wrong about Tas and gave no explanation that I’ve seen.
I also remind you that the keys showed a Lib victory for nearly the whole campaign in Tas outside the margin of error, including election eve.
Daniel Tsays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 3:08 pm
“Key 8; This is the most subjective one, Every single week we get major protests in Melbourne over palestine and we get right-wing protests outside the steps of parliament house. I’m not sure what your criteria of “unrest” is, But I am also calling this key subjective.”
Were there any fatalities outside of Melbourne? If so, I may be corrected.
Were there any fatalities outside of Melbourne? If so, I may be corrected.
You mean like right wing nut job killing 2 police. Clearly you are not paying attention.
Corleonesays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 3:47 pm
“You mean like right wing nut job killing 2 police.”
Do you have a source?
Please be careful to be more interested in spreading the truth, rather than hate. It’s your choice, but I suspect the former would be better for your mental health.
Why does ‘Rob’ keep needing to be told that there is no translation from recorded poll numbers of Reform UK to his wishful thinking that One Nation – yes the fish and chip shop redhead party – in a vastly different electoral system?
This is just getting silly.
He allows for no preference bleed, no other right wing parties to have spats with (Come in Clive Palmer!) that Queensland political movements are hated in Victoria and that is even before the question of whether the Libs are forced to tactically react to PHON by preferencing Labor officially?
And why does he assume those PHONy prefs that are taken from Labor don’t find their way back to Labor?
How does he account for these right wing parties splintering when they get to Parliament. It was always thus, from the very first the Oxley Moron ran a candidate besides herself.
And Lambie
And Xenophon
And Katter
The extreme right know their rhetoric but also their grift and once in Parliament they believe they can do better than the pyramid scheme founder who put them there.
Do you have a source?
Please be careful to be more interested in spreading the truth, rather than hate. It’s your choice, but I suspect the former would be better for your mental health.
+++++++++++++
so you seriously spend all day watching the keys and never the news?
In case you are a UK troll here is a BBC source
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgyk7ry8rdo
Porepunkah shooting ignites conspiracy theorists fears
29 Aug 2025 — Two officers were shot dead in a small, rural town, allegedly by a man with links to the “SovCit” movement.
Corleone @ #17 Saturday, September 27th, 2025 – 3:52 pm
Exactly. Clive Palmer himself was elected (barely) in 2013 and the thing I remember about him the most in that time was him falling asleep on the crossbench.
(Note that the bloke in front of him, Andrew Wilkie is still in parliament).
It takes more than shrieking against woke on Sky After Dark to become a genuine political movement in Australia. Hanson has been trying since 1997, 28 years ago, and the best she can manage is a handful of Senators and state Upper House members.
Corleonesays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 3:54 pm
“so you seriously spend all day watching the keys and never the news?
In case you are a UK troll here is a BBC source
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgyk7ry8rdo
Porepunkah shooting ignites conspiracy theorists fears
29 Aug 2025 — Two officers were shot dead in a small, rural town, allegedly by a man with links to the “SovCit” movement.”
Thanks for the information.
Obviously you haven’t been reading many of my posts, if you actually think I’m British.
I just don’t spend the day watching news 24/7.
More importantly, I don’t think that would make key 8 false in my personal opinion, but if anyone has a problem with it, and actually cares, they can do their own key assessment like Daniel T did above.
29 Aug 2025 — Two officers were shot dead in a small, rural town, allegedly by a man with links to the “SovCit” movement.”
Thanks for the information.
Obviously you haven’t been reading many of my posts, if you actually think I’m British.
I just don’t spend the day watching news 24/7.
More importantly, I don’t think that would make key 8 false in my personal opinion, but if anyone has a problem with it, and actually cares, they can do their own key assessment like Daniel T did above.
++++++++++++
So how did you not know this news story? Only the biggest news story in Melbourne for over a week, and well reported in the rest of Australia?
Are you a US troll? Your English is not very good so you could even be trolling out of St Petersburg for all I know.
Corleonesays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 4:08 pm
“So how did you not know this news story? Only the biggest news story in Melbourne for over a week, and well reported in the rest of Australia?
Are you a US troll? Your English is not very good so you could even be trolling out of St Petersburg for all I know.”
I identify as an Aussie.
I don’t particularly care if my English isn’t that good.
Nobody won Tasmania Arange, It was a hung parliament, and the proggresive independents plus ALP and Greens is a majority, Labor isn’t in government not because of the election result but because of Dean Winter’s ability to work with nobody but himself.
But I am yet to hear about the keys you had for QLD.
And those budget numbers are government figures, you realise any politician can adjust/play with figures so it makes them look good right? I would rather trust an independent source on the economy rather than treasury figures which can easily be manipulated.
Also Camp Soverignty disruption was civil unrest, there were violent clashes that morning which led to the arrest of half a dozen right-wing figures includint Sewell.
Also the 2 people that died that nobody mentioned here was those 2 officers out in regional Victoria which the perpatrator still has not been found but I will not mention anything else about the case as it is sensitive.
I would actually consider it a security failure that he hasn’t been found yet actually.
Also the 1st key is a bit flawed the mlre you think about it, You should change it to something like 55-45 (10 point lead) or more for a government to be given that key, Because if a government like Mark McGowans in 2021 that won a 69-31 victory, would you have awarded that key to the Libs in 2025 even though Labor was never going to lose and won another landslide? There was always going to be a swing against, Even a 65-35 lead would have under your system given the key to the opposition despite the fact it still would have been one of the biggest blowouts in Australian history. I think you should re-access the criteria for Key 1 to the poll lead rather than a “swing to them” as if they already won a record victory, a further swing is unlikely.
Daniel Tsays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 4:21 pm
“Nobody won Tasmania Arange, It was a hung parliament, and the proggresive independents plus ALP and Greens is a majority, Labor isn’t in government not because of the election result but because of Dean Winter’s ability to work with nobody but himself.
But I am yet to hear about the keys you had for QLD.”
The Liberals won the popular vote, as I specifically stated in my key updates, time and time again. You, on the other hand, said something about a Labor win.
I personally get around 7 or 8 false keys for QLD 2024. I would clarify, but I don’t typically reply to posts when I’m getting spammed.
Arange, does the popular vote count if the Greens heavily split the progressive vote with Labor?
Let’s say next time the result was;
31% Liberal
30% Labor
18% Greens
21% All Others
The Libs also won the popular vote in 2010 but the vote was split. Do you concede at some point the Libs could lose in Tasmania yet still get a plurality of the vote like my example?
There is no TPP is Tasmania that is the problem but if the Labor + Greens came close to 50% like my example, that’s nothing short of a Liberal disaster.
How do the keys accomodate for this?
Daniel Tsays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 4:21 pm
And those budget numbers are government figures, you realise any politician can adjust/play with figures so it makes them look good right? I would rather trust an independent source.
_______________________
I thought exactly the same thing.
Daniel Tsays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 5:15 pm
“Arange, does the popular vote count if the Greens heavily split the progressive vote with Labor?
Let’s say next time the result was;
31% Liberal
30% Labor
18% Greens
21% All Others
The Libs also won the popular vote in 2010 but the vote was split. Do you concede at some point the Libs could lose in Tasmania yet still get a plurality of the vote like my example?”
In both of those scenarios, I would be predicting a Lib popular vote win.
Yes, a party can win the 2PP without the highest primary vote tally, and yes, a party can win the election without the popular vote.
If Tasmania switched to a single-member system, I would probably switch to predicting the state-wide 2PP
“There is no TPP is Tasmania that is the problem but if the Labor + Greens came close to 50% like my example, that’s nothing short of a Liberal disaster.
How do the keys accomodate for this?”
You make a very good point.
They don’t, unless the Greens were above 20%
Kinda like if the electoral college/popular vote gap in the USA dramatically widened;
They would be less useful at predicting the actual result, but still predict the real popular vote correctly.
I could be wrong though. I’m no genius. Far from it.
Taylormadesays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 5:38 pm
“I thought exactly the same thing.”
Hopefully someone can find a source showing otherwise.
Adding to my post at 6:04 PM
A high total anti-gov vote could also possibly flip key 1 false.
Corleone – there are just too many nutty leftists and not enough realist leftists. Victoria is an economic basket case and a burden to the Federal Labor Party. It is clear from the polls (clear enough for any nutty leftist to understand) there is a clear movement to One Nation and away from the establishment parties (Labor Party, LNP and Greens) across Australia and now quite apparent in Victoria.
Every single poll is identifying a surge to One Nation across Australia. Your self-delusion is absurd. To claim, Australia is not experiencing the same trends as that occurring in the UK, Europe (and in the US and Canada) is just a self-defeating mindset. There is a clear growing rejection of the prevailing leftist ruling class establishment ideology across the Western world (including now being picked up in every poll in Australia since the May election) and the sooner the left address that rather than resorting to moronic slogans of Nazi, Fascist, racist for everyone who rejects the prevailing leftist ideology the sooner the left can address and adapt to the changing culture.
The size of the One Nation vote (with the last 5 polls indicating the One Nation primary vote across Australia of 12%, 11%, 10%, 9.5% and now 12% in Victoria compared to the 6.40% primary vote received in May) and the accelerating trend towards One Nation as the months progress indicate the preference flows of the One Nation voters will decide the 2028 Fed election. It is a fact the One Nation preference flow at the May Fed election towards the LNP increased from a little more than 61% in 2022 to just over 74% in May this year. That is a very large increase. If nutty leftists just keep parroting the polls are wrong and One Nation is irrelevant then the left in Australia is doomed to experience the same extermination event of the left and establishment ruling class right parties unfolding in the Uk/Europe.
Rob
Do you think ONP could surge to 20% or more?
Could we please stop it with the keys!! Just. Please. Stop.
Thank you!
Notahorsesays:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 6:44 pm
“Could we please stop it with the keys!! Just. Please. Stop.
Thank you!”
I’ll avoid commenting for the next couple days.
Didn’t mean to upset you.
What happens to One Nations primary vote if Pauline retires next time? The party is about her and only her.
It’s like in France once Macron goes, his party is toast.
One Nation will go down by the next state and federal elections. No way it holds. We all know Pauline won’t be prime minister unlike Nigel Farage because the UK uses FPTP, here in Australia we have ranked-choice.
I can’t name a single seat here in Victoria in the lower house PHON can win, they could win 2-3 upper house seats, but which lower house seats?? I can’t name any.
Rob
One Nation polling 15% isn’t insignificant and could see One Nation become a larger party in the senate, where the system is closer to the European system. The Liberal Party would be smart to concentrate on swing voters instead of chasing One Nation voters. A lesson the Labor Party learned when facing the Greens on its left flank.
One Nation does well in the LC, what changes?
* East Victoria: They take the SFF spot, replacing one cooker with another.
* NE Metro: Don’t come close to taking the Greens spot in .
* North Metro: That’s Somyurek’s spot, so who knows what happens there.
* North Victoria: They already have 5th spot in North Victoria so they’d be cannibalising SFF and Family First votes for no gain to the right or at best pushing down a left wing party to 5th.
* South-East Metro: If they take all the cookers votes in they could push Legalise Cannabis down a spot and while doing so, remove the Libertarians. So another case of replacing a cooker with a cooker.
* Southern Metro: I don’t think they can do enough to drop Labor or LC out of 5th spot.
* Western Metro: Labor lost the 3rd seat last time and ON would only be replacing a Liberal.
* Western Victoria: Libs are in 5th place, so even if they took that spot it would likely be at the expense of the 2nd Liberal seat and not a Labor/Greens seat.
Net change? Cooker parties swap two seat, maybe take Somyrek’s seat and maybe replace 2 Liberals.
Daniel T – Hanson has already announced she is standing for re-election at the 2028 Fed election. One Nation will be standing candidates in all House of Reps seats (apart from the 3 seats in the ACT) with a full candidate list for Senate seats in all 6 states and the NT (and possibly the ACT) as it also did at the May 2025 Fed election. I believe it is a mistake to not accept that One Nation has moved well beyond the PHON days. I think the result of the May Fed election when One Nation doubled its Senate representation to 4 Senators was early evidence of an emerging trend to the Populist Right in Australia which has accelerated substantially in the 4 and half months since the May election. If someone had told me on election night in May that One Nation would increase its 6.40% primary vote result to as much as 12% (including also now 12% in the state of Victoria) within just 5 months of the election I would have said that would be impossible. But it has happened and the trend now appears to be accelerating.
The One Nation Party is a clear and present danger to firstly the LNP Coalition and secondly to the working class base of the Labor Party. This is a clear pattern which has already occurred in the UK. There are now numerous stories of large numbers of Liberal Party members resigning to join One Nation Party (along with former Liberal Party members). The National Party appears to be angling closer to One Nation and whether it would survive as an independent entity or simply merge at some point into One Nation is an open question. One Nation is also gaining members in large numbers from the wider community including former Labor Party members and those who have never been members of any political party.
Someone asked a question could One Nation move from 12% to 20% of the national primary vote by the time of the Fed 2028 election. That is 2 and half years away and is plenty of time for that to occur. An economic downturn (which does appear to be emerging in Australia) along with continued infighting in the LNP would make that outcome very probable. I think a more important question is if this trend continues can One Nation exceed the primary vote of the LNP at the 2028 Fed election? It would require a continued steady fall in the LNP primary vote and an acceleration in the working class vote deserting the Labor Party for One Nation. It would make for a very interesting election night with a Labor Party primary vote of 27%, LNP 25% and One Nation 23%. Is that possible? The speed of the shift to One Nation since May indicates it would be a foolish person who says that outcome is completely impossible and will never happen.
Hanson will do 6 months and give it to her kid.
Rob, well she could change her mind, but also why not run in the ACT seats? did she say why they won’t run there? It’s not likr they have much chance pf winning seats like Melbourne,Kooyong,Wills,Cooper,Griffith or Sydney either.
I highly doubt PHON will keep surging, and it should not be assumed that tbe preferences will help the coalition either. I also don’t think the support in the polls is accurate, 3rd parties have been overstated before
Also the “4 senate seats” was mostly due to the flawed system, mostly from minor party preferences rather than PHON doing well themselves. Labor actually did better in 2025 in WA yet they didn’t replicate the 3 senate seats like in 2022, Why? because more minor party preferences went to PHON this time, not because more people voted 1 PHON.
That’s why I would favour 14 seats per state, an odd number each cycle would mean the left and right dont tie on 3 seats each despite one side clearly winning more votes. 3-3 is not democratic when you get 50+1
One Nation won their WA Senate seat because their vote increased from 3.5% to 5.9%, which was bigger than Labor’s increase of 1.6%. While their preferences improved slightly, this was not the decisive factor. They still would have won if preferences had flowed as they did in 2022.
Rob
It would make for a very interesting election night with a Labor Party primary vote of 27%, LNP 25% and One Nation 23%. Is that possible? The speed of the shift to One Nation since May indicates it would be a foolish person who says that outcome is completely impossible and will never happen.
================
7% swing against Labor, 5% swing against the Liberals and 16% swing to One Nation.
This is unlikely, put simply, Labor is seeking a third term, and in Australian elections, when Labor seeks a third term, if the Liberal Party played to their normal strengths on economics, campaigns against Labor’s mistakes, and the Liberal Party runs fresh candidates, there should be swings against Labor towards the Liberal Party, meaning the Liberal Party primary should clear 30% and gain a dozen seats.
What we are seeing in the polling is a lot of noise, and One Nation is acting as a protest vote for the right, the same as the Greens do on the left.
Playing with your numbers, there is about 25% for the Greens and others, if 12% vote Green and 80% goes to Labor, lifts Labor to about 40%.
Labor 40% – Liberals 29% – One Nation 23% – 13% others.
If half the others were Teal, voters 7%, at least 90% will go to Labor and Liberal Party ahead of One Nation.
Labor 45% – Liberals 31% – One Nation 23% – 6% others.
This group of others would be from the Socialist to the Liberalitarians, for argument sake, split others into thirds.
Labor 47% – Liberals 33% – One Nation 25%.
If the election looked like this, Labor would be comfortably returned, and Labor’s high primary and preferences from the Greens will stop One Nation from winning seats.
I think a key difference between Australia and the UK is that unlike Nigel Farage, Pauline Hanson is not being given a free boost by all of the national media.
That’s about the only good thing I can say about the state of Australia’s media environment. Since 2010 they’ve been trying to brainwash everyone into supporting the right wing and while they had their fun until 2019, the narrative most of them were trying to build mostly shattered. So they have to adjust and it’s only the Sky After Dark loonies that actively try to spruik them up.
And here, since most of us are compelled to vote on election day, on a Saturday, or if not, the couple of weeks beforehand when it’s most convenient, most of those who vote that would otherwise stay at home in the UK or USA would rather us not be ruled by MAGA ratbags like Trump or Farage or their equivalents.
Britian has a problem with cross channel boats, Starmer’s performed poorly, and people are not yet ready to forgive the Conservatives. Only the last bit applied to Australia in 25, and none should apply in 28.
If the Hanson Party, with its narrow narrative re immigration, stands candidates across Australia what will the integrity of those candidates be and are they, as individuals, electable?
There is a history of these fringe “parties” burning starting with SA, so they defect and disappear
An election will put the spotlight on them and their agendas
One Nation might be doing OK in the polls but there would seem there is a lack of commitment – somewhere for those polled to park their vote – Labor No Greens Definitely Not Liberal Nooo… One Nation They’ll do. One Nation are also in a situation where they can gather up preferences from others on the right. They would also be susceptable to another more attractive right wing option coming along . Like other populists they have a ‘platform’ – eggshell thin – of just being ‘anti ….(insert whatever applies)’. Once Pauline goes all bets are off…not sure how old the replacement is for Warwick Stacey is in NSW but they are all old except Tyron Whitten . Like the DLP in the 70s they don’t seem good at regenerating. If Group voting goes, they would have a good chance in both Eastern snd Northern Victoria regions possibly Western but hard to see them getting up in a metro region.
Pollbludger – will the DemosAU Victorian Federal Election voting data be added to the Victorian tab within Bludgertrack 2028 to gain an insight into the impact at a State and National level?
The DemosAU sample size of 1,327 Victorians Federal voting intentions taken between 2-9 September appears to be the second largest sample size of all Victorian polls since the May election (after the 1,332 Victorian sample size of the Redbridge poll taken between 19 August and 8 September). Arguably the more recent dates and compressed timeline of the DemosAU poll implies it is a more accurate snapshot of Victorian Federal voting intentions than the Redbridge poll.
Arange says:
Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 6:34 pm
Rob
Do you think ONP could surge to 20% or more?
============================
Quite possibly high teens. Probably not in Victoria, but it’s getting close in NSW.
I believe the “peak” PHON Federal vote of 13% occurred in a poll in mid 1998 with PHON ultimately recording 8.43% at that election. I think it may cross that 13% mark soon.
Daniel T:
“Also the “4 senate seats” was mostly due to the flawed system, mostly from minor party preferences rather than PHON doing well themselves.”
What is flawed about that? It is just like Labor winning on preferences from behind in the Reps, which happened in nine Reps seats. Two of ON’s four seats were won from out of the top six by overtaking Labor. In WA they were the leading right-wing party in the race for the final seat, they were not far behind Labor, and there were substantially more right preferences than left preferences. If they can win that then good luck to them, and they did.
In NSW they were also the leading right-wing party, and this time they were much further behind, but in NSW the Greens were well short of quota meaning the leftish preferences were splitting two ways whereas the right preferences could pool straight with One Nation. I was amazed they got there but fair enough.
It’s actually good for democracy that either side can win seats on preferences in this way, and it made the Senate more representative (at least until the next One Nation split).
With 7 seats up per state Labor would have won three more, Coalition two and One Nation one, so there wouldn’t have been any net impact on right-left balance for 2025. It would have turned Queensland’s 3-3 into a 3-4 (4 for right). An even split is a much better reflection of the voting in Queensland.
To say something vaguely on topic the real flawed system is Victoria’s upper house, which makes any projections about how many seats One Nation might win there a waste of time until there is clear movement on abolishing Group Ticket Voting. With GTV still in they might win in every region or none depending on what deals are done and what micro parties poll what, though some are more likely than others.
All these cookers on this forum getting excited about PHON. But why Victoria? Wouldn’t we have seen it in Qld if it was there?
And as others have said, what’s to stop another right wing grifter coming in and stealing the votes or momentum?
Cookers were cooking back in 2022 with Dan the Man in power and lockdowns and various other cooker-triggers fresh in mind, and they did poorly.
Dutton, fresh off recruiting the Brethers to his cause, did poorly.
Cookers seem a bit like some Green voters, only on the other side of the spectrum.
nadia88: I found some slightly higher ON federal readings than that 13% Newspoll:
‘The 12% in Resolve isn’t quite an all-time high for One Nation in a poll. Their strongest patch was around June-July 1998 when they polled two 14.5s and a 14 in Morgan, a 14 in Nielsen and a 13 in Newspoll; they also had a 13.5 in Morgan in May 1997.”
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/09/poll-roundup-liberal-crisis-as.html