The only new federal poll this week was the monthly-or-so accumulation from Roy Morgan, encompassing 5084 responses from between August 25 and September 21. Labor is credited with a lead of 55.5-44.5 on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures, which is in from 56.5-43.5 last month on respondent-allocated, but unchanged on previous election. There is next to no change on the primary vote: Labor is on 34%, the Coalition 30% and the Greens 12%, no different from last time, while One Nation gains half a point to 9.5%. The accompanying release has two-party breakdowns by state and gender.
The other big electoral news of the week was Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian abandoning her Court of Disputed Returns challenge to her 26-vote defeat at the hands of independent Nicolette Boele in Bradfield. Kapterian said the opportunity to review the ballot papers that had been referred to Australian Electoral Officer for adjudication during the counting process left her “satisfied the right call was made overall”.
From the NYT, 30 Sept.Trump Was Still Unpopular in Our Poll. Why Aren’t Democrats Doing Better?
By Nate Cohn
…
…“unchanged” is probably the best description of the findings from today’s Times/Siena poll.
Mr. Trump’s approval rating is at 43 percent, about the same as the 42 percent who approved in April. His disapproval rating is unchanged at 54 percent.
Similarly, Democrats lead by two percentage points in the race for Congress. That’s about the same as their three-point lead in April.
You can tell the same story about the economy, immigration, trade, Russia and so on. Voters still think Mr. Trump is going “too far,” and they mostly disapprove of his handling of the most important issues, but his political standing hasn’t gotten much worse over the last few months, either.
…
We didn’t ask how voters viewed the Democratic Party in this poll, but our questions about immigration nonetheless help illustrate why “disapproval” of Mr. Trump does not neatly translate into support for Democrats.
Overall, Mr. Trump’s approval rating on immigration isn’t great, with 46 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving. More specifically, a slim majority, 51 percent, say Mr. Trump is going “too far” on immigration enforcement. Only 44 percent think the deportation process has been fair.
It might look like a great opportunity for Democrats, but there’s a catch:
54 percent say they “support” deporting illegal immigrants, compared with 44 percent who “oppose.”
51 percent say that the government is mostly deporting people who “should” be deported, compared with 42 percent who say the government is mostly deporting people who “should not” be deported.
….
——————-
Is this why PHON is surging, why Farage is dominant, why Hastie decided to play with migration fire and… why Nadia slipped in the Berserker Burke barb?
Kirsdarke, Wednesday, October 1, 2025 at 8:20 pm:
————————-
Targeting Russia’s oil refineries and pipelines has been a strategic masterstroke by Ukraine. And they will not stop until Russia stops its invasion and occupation.
In the meantime, it will only get worse for the Russians – and coming into winter, as you point out.
The Pope is a Dem.
Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, October 1, 2025 at 8:20 pm
If true…
…
If there’s one thing that gets through to average citizens when the state-controlled news is otherwise telling them everything is fine, it’s fuel shortages. That’s when things start to break down big time.
When people can’t fill up their fuel tanks, they can’t drive to work or the shops, and that’s when panic sets in. And this is happening before winter.’
==================
Germane considerations. But how germane and how significant? (Sometimes extreme) fuel rationing is quite normal during war time.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=iamge+of+world+war+two+gar+with+improvised+gas+storage+on+the+roof#vhid=WdDgscocgBTyaM&vssid=_gwLdaLDoMZzY1e8P8KqIKQ_45
Confessions @ #1801 Wednesday, October 1st, 2025 – 8:26 pm
Well, at the very least, if Trump attempts another autogolpe in 2028, he won’t have the military behind him. They’ll obey only as far as the constitution commands, no more than that, and if he tries to use them to stay in power, they’d gladly drag him out kicking and screaming.
Is Arnie a Dem also, pp?
pied piper, Wednesday, October 1, 2025 at 8:28 pm
If you’re not actually a Yank, you’re rather sad.
@Boerwar at 8:30pm
That was the situation 80 years ago. This is a whole different society.
Russians generally drive personal vehicles as much as Americans these days. Can you imagine Houston or St. Louis introducing fuel rationing? That’s what awaits Novosibirsk and Yekaterinburg.
What about Trump’s presumptive immunity from the Supreme Court? He only has to petition the courts as to his latest desires and ambitions and it seems they roll over and cave to him.
It might be the lower courts which are holding, but the Supreme Court appears to be all in on Trumpism.
Confessions @ #1810 Wednesday, October 1st, 2025 – 8:40 pm
If Trump manages to get through the 22nd Amendment then the USA is pretty much nothing more than just another authoritarian dictatorship anyway.
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, October 1, 2025 at 8:28 pm
The Pope is a Dem.
——————————————-
Pretty sure he’s Catholic. If he’s also a Dem, it is about time he got that Catholic majority SCOTUS to toe his line.
Dan Tehan on abc730 insists being smashed in a record election landslide defeat is no reason to stop pursuing Nuclear. Uses Dutton’s same debunked theories, claims Renewables don’t provide base load power. Rejects expert advice.
Nothing like repeating the same mistake over and over.
“ The Pope is a Dem.”
A catholic from the south side of Chicago being a Democrat? Not exactly a surprise.
Like finding nationals in rural Qld.
The 22nd isn’t worth the paper it’s written on because all it’s operative clauses use the word “elected”, instead of “become”.
Easy way to get around it, is to do the Putin shuffle where Trump Jr or Vance or whatever is the official candidate, and then some other stooge is VP. Vance wins, the VP stooge steps down immediate, Vance appoints Trump as VP, Vance steps down, Trump appoints Vance as VP.
Simple.
Even simpler if you can get the Supreme Court to rule that having two terms isn’t a valid reason for the 12th Amendment to disqualify Trump for running as VP. In which case Vance could refuse to take the role and so Trump would become President again.
And that all assumes the MAGA Supreme Court doesn’t invalidate it all anyway, saying that it is a “Political Question” and if the voters don’t want a 3rd Trump term it’s up to them to not vote for it.
“Not exactly a surprise. Like finding nationals in rural Qld.”
They were released into the wild there to try and control the wild pig problem. Unfortunately they proved a bigger feral pest problem than the wild pigs they were suppose to control.
Sarah Ferguson did Dan Tehan a favor and ended the interview.
So now it’s micro-reactors.
My Ears felt abused.
God it was a load of nonsense.
The ‘war from within’ speech. Truly chilling. I wonder if this war on democrat cities plays some part of his plan to go another term.
Ghost Of Whitlam @ #1815 Wednesday, October 1st, 2025 – 8:51 pm
I think if the Republicans start being “cute” like that to get around the constitutional term limit then they’d start to be at a disadvantage.
But who knows? Maybe by 2028 they’ll abolish the whole Democratic party and put all their members in camps, or the Democrats would run someone even weaker as their nominee.
Fastwheelssays:
Wednesday, October 1, 2025 at 8:49 pm
Dan Tehan on abc730 insists being smashed in a record election landslide defeat is no reason to stop pursuing Nuclear. Uses Dutton’s same debunked theories, claims Renewables don’t provide base load power. Rejects expert advice.
Nothing like repeating the same mistake over and over.
____________________________________
Tories are weird. Their nostalgic yearning for baseload is almost as dated as their taste in cars.
It seems like every time AEMO CEO, Daniel Westerman speaks he says something like, “Australia’s energy transition from a power system designed on baseload and peaking generation to renewables and firming is well underway.” (AEMO Annual Report FY 2025, p. 14)
Heather cox and Political girl
It’s a race, can trump seize power before the ora ends.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAgukwt5Ox4
‘the pope is a Dem’.
You’d think so, as God’s representative on Earth and all.
Trump isn’t going to go for a 3rd Term. As Michael Wolfe (and he should know better than a bunch of Aussie people speculating on a blog), said today on the ‘Inside Trump’s Head’ podcast, the fact that Trump is talking about the Trump Library means he won’t be running for a 3rd Term as Presidents only do their Library after they have left office.
The 2nd reason is that Ron de Santis today gifted Donald Trump a massive building in Florida to house his Library.
The 3rd reason, of course, is his advancing age and infirmity.
“I think if the Republicans start being “cute” like that to get around the constitutional term limit then they’d start to be at a disadvantage.”
Yeah.. maybe if they & Trump hadn’t done a million things already that should have been a disadvantage.. and instead have been rewarded by voters handing them control of the three branches of the Federal Government and 23 State trifectas (vs 14 Dem) on top of that (and where Michigan, Nevada, Vermont and Virginia voters continue to ensure one element remains out of Dem control).
“Trump will be dead soon. If someone doesn’t shoot him, he’ll self-combust due to a gas build up in his nappy, or something.”
What’s what people always say about evil fucks like him. Then you end up with Reagan 93, Bush Sr 94, Gorton 90, Murdoch living into his 90’s, Howard/Fraser into the late 80’s, Thatcher 87 etc.
You know who thinks he’s God’s representative on Earth?
Donald Trump
“Their sins are forgiven.”
Donald J. Trump wrt Harvard
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/09/30/hegseth-whistleblower-watchdog-pentagon/
If Ben Roberts Smith were ever able to lead the Defence Department, I wonder if this is the kind of stuff he’d be implementing.
GoW,
Reagan and Thatcher were there but not all there. Is that really living?
I just saw a clip on the Jimmy Kimmel show of Chump addressing the Generals and Admirals.
Many will have noticed the angular shape of the superstructure of modern naval vessels. They are built this way to reduce their radar signature.
Chump said he didn’t like the aesthetics of modern warships, meaning that they should go back to the shapes they had when he was a boy.
And they wonder why there was no applause.
GrannyAnny @ #1829 Wednesday, October 1st, 2025 – 9:39 pm
That reminds me of this moment when Pauline Hanson was asking a Rear Admiral if submarines with pump-jet engines could only stay underwater for 20 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k870cg2E4LM
Probably this is why we shouldn’t be a republic, if we were, someone like Hanson could be elected President.
No all plain sailing for our Andrew.
Truth is all administrations deport millions of people a year. The difference with Trump is they are literally grabbing randoms off the street who are sometimes legally allowed to be in the country, some are even citizens.
For the most part its got nothing to do with deportations, its all about making people afraid to stand up to the regime… you know typical fascist shit.
Anyway theirs nothing in this data that’s difficult for the Democrats who have always deported millions who were deemed illegal. Their are however some who are not citizens, but have lived their almost their whole life in the country and contributed, and this where their should be a policy put in place to put them on a path to citizenship.
The other issue is just enforcing the border control which is also not something that is an issue that Democrats should shy away from, just like how we do boats here.
A little history lesson on the “Hitler Oath” – Prior to the Nazi takeover in 1933, the army had sworn a loyalty oath to the Constitution of the Republic. After the enabling law, the Oath was changed to swearing to Germany and the President (Hindenburg). Then Hindenburg dies, the Oath is changed to the new leader, das Fuhrer.
In no circumstances is American military leadership going to swearing an oath to anything other than the US constitution. They have been doing that for 230 odd years.
And the US code of Military justice (UMCJ) is a law that says how the military is to be run. In order to change that congress would need to pass a bill and at the moment they can’t do that even to keep the lights on. The current code was put in place in 1950 and last updated in 2007.
frednk says:
Wednesday, October 1, 2025 at 8:54 pm
Sarah Ferguson did Dan Tehan a favor and ended the interview.
So now it’s micro-reactors.
My Ears felt abused.
God it was a load of nonsense.
_____________________________________________
How do you think she felt? Tehan sounded so wooden. And his answers were terrible. If this is Liberal talent they are in even more trouble than anyone expected.
“No all plain sailing for our Andrew.”
Time to sack the council.
Ghost Of Whitlam @ #1833 Wednesday, October 1st, 2025 – 9:58 pm
Agreed. Shoalhaven council has been dysfunctional and bankrupt for years now. Why it is still in place is a mystery. The council should have been dumped and an administrator appointed, but instead the place has simply been left to deteriorate by the NSW government, for reasons that are beyond understanding 🙁
Cat
“ the pope is a Dem’.
You’d think so, as God’s representative on Earth and all.”
———————————————————
I have always wondered how conservative “Christians” reconcile their political beliefs with professed belief in a god that allegedly said “blessed are the poor”.
There is a marked inconsistency between their public and private lives.
Socratessays:
I have always wondered how conservative “Christians” reconcile their political beliefs with professed belief in a god that allegedly said “blessed are the poor”.
There is a marked inconsistency between their public and private lives.
___________________________
I think like every other kind of Christian they cherry pick the parts they want to.
Can you spot the difference?
And of course, if the poor are blessed, all wrongs will be righted, all tears dried through salvation and Heaven. Well then why worry about what happens on this world. It’s already going to be made right.
Biden may have had dementia, but the orange shit berg is completely crazy.
Thats right, the North Koreans are having a good time.
Ghost Of Whitlam says Wednesday, October 1, 2025 at 8:51 pm
The problem is, would you trust your nominated stooge to step down? What happens if they don’t? JD Vance might well think “hey I’ve been just elected President. Why do I need to play second fiddle to an idiot?”
The imagery is deliberate, just like this one.
Cue a comment from Nath who always seems to get uppity when I post this.
Trumps opening comments were a threat to the assembled military:
Thank you very much, Pete. And great job you’re doing too, fantastic job. I’ve never walked into a room so silent before. This is very — oh, don’t laugh, don’t laugh. You’re not allowed to do that. You know what, just have a good time. And if you want to applaud, you applaud. And if you want to do anything you want — you can do anything you want. And if you don’t like what I’m saying, you can leave the room. Of course, there goes your rank, there goes your future…
A few people chuckled at this as if it was a joke but I’m sure most of them saw through that shit.
Danger for the Coalition as Australia’s ‘MAGA right’ mobilises
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2025/09/29/coalition-far-right-threat
Kirsdarkesays:
Cue a comment from Nath who always seems to get uppity when I post this.
___________________
ah, knock yourself out kid.
Personally, I settle for rolling my eyes.
You’re not gonna win any propaganda award kirsdarke!
“The problem is, would you trust your nominated stooge to step down? What happens if they don’t? JD Vance might well think “hey I’ve been just elected President. Why do I need to play second fiddle to an idiot?””
Yeah, always an issue but if it really came down to it, I’m sure a threat of being Kirk’d would set Vance straight to do what Trump’s handlers (Peter Thiel, Musk, Zuckerberg, Bezos etc) want him to do. They may also tell Trump to shuffle off and leave it to Vance and remain as a “figurehead” of the movement instead.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, October 1, 2025 at 9:18 pm
Trump isn’t going to go for a 3rd Term. As Michael Wolfe (and he should know better than a bunch of Aussie people speculating on a blog), said today on the ‘Inside Trump’s Head’ podcast, the fact that Trump is talking about the Trump Library means he won’t be running for a 3rd Term as Presidents only do their Library after they have left office.
The 2nd reason is that Ron de Santis today gifted Donald Trump a massive building in Florida to house his Library.
The 3rd reason, of course, is his advancing age and infirmity.]
C@t
None of that leaves me with any confidence at all that the chance of a third term hasn’t seriously cast its shadow across Trump’s thought processes.
Polling from the States suggests that despite the seemingly endless controversy emanating from commentators aplenty, Trump is in no way regarded as the dysfunctional demon many believe Trump represents.
Trump has played and called a massive economic gambit in so many ways and we have yet to see a homegrown negative response to his antics.
Trump will be always looking to *turn the next truck” and enough of the Americans love the theatre of it all.
Employment, housing and entitlement are the mounts Trump continues to value above all else.
Morality, ethics, tradition, convention and integrity have little sway in a Trump world.
GrannyAnnysays:
Wednesday, October 1, 2025 at 9:39 pm
I just saw a clip on the Jimmy Kimmel show of Chump addressing the Generals and Admirals.
Many will have noticed the angular shape of the superstructure of modern naval vessels. They are built this way to reduce their radar signature.
Chump said he didn’t like the aesthetics of modern warships, meaning that they should go back to the shapes they had when he was a boy.
And they wonder why there was no applause.
_______________________
He may have had this in mind:
https://youtu.be/XHzbYYlXUrg