Friday miscellany: Roy Morgan and Bradfield conclusion (open thread)

Of note this week: a status quo Roy Morgan result, and confirmation at last of the result in Bradfield.

The only new federal poll this week was the monthly-or-so accumulation from Roy Morgan, encompassing 5084 responses from between August 25 and September 21. Labor is credited with a lead of 55.5-44.5 on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures, which is in from 56.5-43.5 last month on respondent-allocated, but unchanged on previous election. There is next to no change on the primary vote: Labor is on 34%, the Coalition 30% and the Greens 12%, no different from last time, while One Nation gains half a point to 9.5%. The accompanying release has two-party breakdowns by state and gender.

The other big electoral news of the week was Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian abandoning her Court of Disputed Returns challenge to her 26-vote defeat at the hands of independent Nicolette Boele in Bradfield. Kapterian said the opportunity to review the ballot papers that had been referred to Australian Electoral Officer for adjudication during the counting process left her “satisfied the right call was made overall”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,860 thoughts on “Friday miscellany: Roy Morgan and Bradfield conclusion (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 38
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  1. Despite their attempts to destroy their constituencies the Reactionaries retain the primary support of 3/10 voters. Incomprehensible. Give them time, I suppose, and their attempts will come to something…2/10 perhaps. I continue to look forward to their further losses in the Parliament and their eventual dissolution.

    Good to see Ukraine evidently gradually winning as Putin makes yet more mistakes. If instagram is to be taken seriously Putin has lost 4,000 tanks, 13,000 other armoured vehicles and 40% of its Black Sea fleet, which is now effectively useless; never having had air-superiority Putin is now losing the drone war too while deaths and other casualties on the Russian side now exceed 1,000,000. Putin has ventured into testing and taunting NATO. He will regret that as well.

    And good to see Trump on an imbecile’s rave at the UN. The depths of his stupidity are visible to the entire world. This will shake us into action. The US continues its spectacular convulsions. As long as free and fair elections are held in 2026 Trump will lose both the House and the Senate. All hell will break loose for MAGA. In the meantime it also appears the Senate will fail to pass an appropriation bill this month and a shutdown of the US government will ensue. Trump lacks the political skills to handle that. MAGA are to eat some of stew they have had on the stove for decades.

    Xi will be feeling he’s been given yet another free kick by the US. He will take it.

  2. Let’s hope that Climate 200 prepares candidates to run in remaining Lib-held seats where Teal voters can be reached. I’m thinking Canning, O’Connor and Forrest in WA. There must be seats in the other States. Goldstein, Flinders and Wannon in Victoria? Hume, Lindsay, Cook, Berowra, Mitchell…they should be on list. Could the Reactionaries lose Barker and Grey? They certainly deserve to.

  3. Andrew Hastie. The guy Pete Hegseth would have most in common with in politics around the world. Onwards Christian Soldiers. Yee hah!

  4. I wonder why Gisele abandoned her challenge now? Just when she was on the verge of going to court about it. Was there something else going on in the background we don’t know? Either way it always seemed like a long shot for gee to get Bradfiekd.

  5. The latest goss I have on Climate 200 is that they are going for Regional Seats next. Probably like my own seat of Robertson in Regional Sydney, and those like it in Sea Change and Tree Change areas around Australia.

  6. The ABC and GA have stories on China’s 2035 emissions target. The ABC article is good:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/26/china-first-emissions-reduction-target-announced-global-impact
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-26/chinas-new-climate-target-is-both-historic-and-inadequate/105814784

    Both refer to this analysis:
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-just-put-chinas-co2-emissions-into-reverse-for-first-time/

    It would have been even better if they included data from this more recent analysis:
    https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-solar-growth-keeps-chinas-co2-falling-in-first-half-of-2025/

  7. China’s emissions goal will raise the pressure on others to do more to cut their emissions. It will also come to signify the retreat of a delusional US into Reactionary chaos.

  8. Hastie has thrown down the gauntlet on energy policy, threatening to quit his position if the Coalition did not abandon the net zero by 2050 emissions target – and launched his own “Australia First” campaign to bring back local manufacturing.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mr-conviction-what-s-behind-andrew-hastie-s-new-crusade-20250924-p5mxhu.html

    If he truly wanted to stand on his own convictions, he’d quit the party and sit as an independent, not just quit the front bench.

    But this isn’t about policies or personal convictions. It’s about undermining Ley.

  9. I hope the Teals run on the Central Coast and similar areas and Community Independents in National Party seats

    With the LNP struggling we need the Greens and Independents to step up and keep the government in check

  10. Communist China the fed labor governments besties put out lies about their emissions which are as believable as Chinas economic figures which are also fabricated.
    Globalist fed labor do not care about the truth they prefer communist lies.

    Any chance fed labor government are going to get out of the country the 100,000 illegals they are letting stay and taking accommodation from Aussies?.
    Ironically it’s blowing out inflation via rents which is denying future interest rate cuts.

  11. Steady as she goes for the Albanese Labor Government on these figures. Sometimes we make insufficient acknowledgement of the virtues of sensible, centre-left Government without undue fuss and drama. Then, we look overseas and see what’s going on over there, and thank our lucky stars we have compulsory voting with FPV.

  12. There is no mystery about the Bradfield backdown. It’s obvious that inspections of the questionable ballots did not identify enough that, if added to Kapterian’s pile, could change the result or force a new election. There was no claim left to take to a hearing.

  14. “Europeans Privately Tell Russia They’re Ready to Shoot Down Jets”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-25/europeans-privately-tell-russia-they-re-ready-to-shoot-down-jets

    European diplomats warned the Kremlin this week that NATO is ready to respond to further violations of its airspace with full force, including by shooting down Russian planes, according to officials familiar with the exchange.

    At a tense meeting in Moscow, British, French and German envoys addressed their concerns about an incursion by three MiG-31 fighter jets over Estonia last week, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the talks took place behind closed doors. Following the conversation, they concluded that the violation had been a deliberate tactic ordered by Russian commanders.

  15. @Hack,

    The senate? I don’t think you realise how difficult it is for the Democrats to win, they need to net 4 seats, where are they getting them? Have you seen the map?

    Maine and North Carolina isn’t enough. they would need to win 2 solidly red republican states, and I don’t think they will win in Ohio, Brown has little chance and don’t even suggest Iowa or Florida. Not happening.

    Alaska and Nebraska are also not likely. so I think you should correct the record that Republicans will hold the senate but yes, Democrats will win the house.

  17. Jacinta Price has today got stuck right into closet labor supporter Allegra Spender on population.DAILY MAIL .

    Good to see as Spender views average to lower class income Aussies as deplorables.

  18. One third of US Senators face election to six year terms once every two years (plus those who filled casual vacancies in the prior two years). With two Senators per State and each State electing its own Senators, a Senate election is essentially a series of single-member elections on a first past the post basis. Except in “swing States”, defeating / replacing a sitting Senator standing for reelection is very difficult.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate#Elections

  19. Good Morning! here’s Your Local Ish news and Views Roundup.

    Mr Conviction: What’s behind Andrew Hastie’s new crusade?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mr-conviction-what-s-behind-andrew-hastie-s-new-crusade-20250924-p5mxhu.html

    Future Liberal leader or party disruptor? Andrew Hastie and the rise of the ‘Maga right’.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/25/future-liberal-leader-or-party-disruptor-andrew-hastie-and-the-rise-of-the-maga-right

    Liberal veteran Amanda Vanstone chides Andrew Hastie for not being a team player, warns of runaway ego. Jacob Greber
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-25/andrew-hastie-warned-of-division-amanda-vanstone/105817288

    As the government rejects Trump’s UNGA rhetoric, Liberal leadership aspirant Andrew Hastie sounds decidedly Trumpian. Michelle Grattan
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-26/michelle-grattan-analysis-andrew-hastie-sounds-trumpian/105818330

    Analysis: From New York to London, Anthony Albanese plots statesmanlike course through global turmoil. Tom McIlroy in New York
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/25/from-new-york-to-london-anthony-albanese-plots-statesmanlike-course-through-global-turmoil

    No need to rush, Albanese. Meeting with Trump can leave a country worse off. Waleed Aly
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/no-need-to-rush-albanese-meeting-with-trump-can-leave-a-country-worse-off-20250925-p5mxtu.html

    Albanese and Starmer to meet for a frank exchange of views (and possibly some political advice)
    https://theconversation.com/albanese-and-starmer-to-meet-for-a-frank-exchange-of-views-and-possibly-some-political-advice-265751

    The opposition dubbed him “Airbus Albo” but it didn’t stick; now they argue he should have hopped in his RAAF jet and flown out to meet Trump sooner.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/airbus-albo-finds-international-diplomacy-harder-in-term-two-20250924-p5mxqb.html

    Watergate, the Kennedys and how the American dream took a Trumpian turn. Tony Wright
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/watergate-the-kennedys-and-how-the-american-dream-took-a-trumpian-turn-20250923-p5mxd3.html

    Hastie lets loose, one-on-one with Albanese and Trump, and the politics of Palestinian recognition
    By Brett Worthington
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-25/hastie-ley-trump-un-palestine-cop-turkiye-bradfield-byelection/105814488

    Albanese’s tilt for a seat on UN Security Council to take years and millions to land.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-distances-himself-from-trump-in-major-un-speech-debut-20250925-p5mxrj.html

    What are Australia’s chances of returning to the UN Security Council?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-25/australia-renews-un-security-council-bid/105816596

    Analysis: Nobody wanted to say ‘mission accomplished’ on inflation – certainly not Jim Chalmers. But he was surely thinking it. Economists are revising their rate cut predictions after the latest ABS figures revealed inflation is trending back up. But there are reasons to relax. Patrick Commins
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/26/inflation-jim-chalmers-nobody-wanted-to-say-mission-accomplished

    ‘On guard’ for share market correction, Optus debacle began in India .
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-25/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/105814572

    A fourth former detainee has been issued with a Nauruan visa and could be deported within weeks, under a multi-billion-dollar deal with the island nation. The non-citizen, who is a member of the so-called NZYQ cohort released after the landmark 2023 High Court ruling, was taken into immigration detention on Thursday pending removal.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-25/fourth-nauruan-visa-issued-to-nzyq/105817222

    More than 300,000 Australians had Centrelink payments cancelled illegally, new analysis shows.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/26/more-than-300000-australians-had-centrelink-payments-cancelled-illegally-new-analysis-shows

    Koalas, carbon credits and the fine print of conservation. However, as they say: “Every silver lining has its cloud”. In this case, the government has stated that establishment the Great Koala National Park is conditional. Documents relating to the decision specify: “The final creation of the park is dependent on the successful registration of a carbon project under the Improved Native Forest Management Method, which is currently moving through the Federal Government assessment processes.” This caveat raises several concerns.
    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/09/koalas-carbon-credits-and-the-fine-print-of-conservation/

    Callan Park master plan hopes to turn former NSW psychiatric hospital site into ‘iconic’ urban parkland
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/25/callan-park-master-plan-hopes-to-turn-former-mental-hospital-site-into-iconic-urban-parkland

    A Victorian state government-run construction council voted to give its oversight of industry disputes to a $1.3 billion fund that was partly controlled by then CFMEU boss John Setka.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/the-abandoned-plan-to-move-construction-dispute-powers-to-cfmeu-linked-fund-20250921-p5mwta.html

    They’ve finally gone there: South Park lets rip at Benjamin Netanyahu.
    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/sep/25/theyve-finally-gone-there-south-park-lets-rip-at-benjamin-netanyahu

    From South Park v Trump to AI slopaganda: deepfakes are now part of the news cycle, for better and for worse. Deepfakes come with risks that demand urgent regulation. But it is vital their potential as a creative and satirical tool isn’t stifled. Anna Broinowski
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/sep/26/deepfakes-ai-slop-now-part-of-news-cycle-south-park-v-trump

    AI progress has slowed and models are cheaper. That could be good news for Australia. It’s becoming cheaper and easier to build AI that can do most of the basic things we use the technology for such as transcribing, drafting and summarising.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2025-09-26/australia-future-artificial-intelligence-ai-technology-progress/105815470

    AI systems can easily lie and deceive us – a fact researchers are painfully aware of.
    https://theconversation.com/ai-systems-can-easily-lie-and-deceive-us-a-fact-researchers-are-painfully-aware-of-263531

    When Sam Altman Predicts a ‘Superintelligence’ Might Arrive
    The OpenAI CEO opened up in a wide-ranging conversation about the future of AI.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/09/25/sam-altman-ai-interview-axel-springer-00580997

    Netanyahu flies circuitous route to UN summit ‘to avoid arrest’ in Europe.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/25/netanyahu-flies-circuitous-route-to-un-summit-amid-reporarrest-fears

    Washington backing plan for Tony Blair to head transitional Gaza authority
    Reported proposal for international body to oversee Gaza for up to five years counters UN-backed plan for faster transition to Palestinian rule
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/25/washington-backing-plan-for-tony-blair-to-head-transitional-gaza-authority

    Abbas decries Israel’s ‘genocide’ and says Hamas will have no role in future Gaza government. Palestinian Authority president speaks to UN by video about Israel’s ‘war crime’ after visa was revoked by the US.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/25/mahmoud-abbas-israel-genocide-un-speech

    China has announced its first target to cut emissions in real terms. What does it mean for Australia?
    With China accounting for nearly a third of the world’s total emissions, any cuts it achieves will make a substantial difference for the world – and for fossil fuel exports. Graham Readfearn
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/26/china-first-emissions-reduction-target-announced-global-impact

    China is ramping up renewable capacity at breathtaking pace, but experts say its emissions target is playing it safe.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-26/chinas-new-climate-target-is-both-historic-and-inadequate/105814784

    BP predicts higher oil and gas demand, suggesting world will not hit 2050 net zero target
    Conflict in Ukraine and Middle East as well as trade tariffs are making states focus on energy security
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/25/bp-oil-and-gas-clean-energy-ukraine-middle-east-tariffs

    The Guardian view on Ireland’s presidential election: a contest with consequences. Since 1990, the heads of state of Britain’s closest neighbour have played important soft power roles. This needs to continue.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/sep/25/the-guardian-view-on-irelands-presidential-election-a-contest-with-consequences

    Democrats dig in on shutdown after White House layoff threat
    Multiple lawmakers weighed in Thursday to say they would not be cowed. GOP leaders were quieter.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/25/democrats-dig-in-on-shutdown-after-white-house-layoff-threat-00580559

    Nicolas Sarkozy says he will ‘sleep in jail but with head held high’ after conviction
    Former French president receives five-year prison sentence for criminal conspiracy over pact with Gaddafi regime.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/25/nicolas-sarkozy-found-guilty-of-criminal-conspiracy-in-libya-trial

    Analysis: Sarkozy’s spectacular downfall marks turning point in France’s struggle against graft
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/25/sarkozys-spectacular-downfall-marks-turning-point-in-frances-struggle-against-graft

    Analysis: Is Trump right that Russia’s economy is on the brink of collapse? While VAT is going up to finance the war and fuel is in short supply, few expect Putin to adjust his war plans. Pjotr Sauer
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/25/is-trump-right-that-russian-economy-is-on-brink-of-collapse

    Top EU diplomat warns Trump that Europe can’t shoulder Ukraine war burden alone. Ukraine and its allies are trying to understand Trump’s sudden shift on the possible outcome of the war.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/25/kaja-kallas-interview-trump-ukraine-war-00581253

    Russian foreign minister says Moscow is in a ‘real war’ with NATO, Europe.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/25/russia-nato-eu-ukraine-war-00581261

    Questions are growing about how long police can continue to search for alleged gunman Dezi Freeman in Victoria’s high country.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-26/porepunkah-gunman-dezi-freeman-shooting-latest/105806284

    Brethren and Pentecostal cults and the ‘quid pro quo’ for Australia’s democracy. By Michelle Pini
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/brethren-and-pentecostal-cults-and-australias-democracy-what-is-the-quid-pro-quo,20202

    Friday essay: new revelations of the Murdoch empire’s underbelly – from The Hack’s real-life journalist
    https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-new-revelations-of-the-murdoch-empires-underbelly-from-the-hacks-real-life-journalist-265756

    This one’s for Omar: ‘Just stunning’: nothing paltry about these show-stopping birds
    The Melbourne Royal Show attracts fowl fanciers from near and far for the poultry contest.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/26/melbourne-royal-show-poultry-contest-chicken-judging-show-stopping-birds

  20. World News & Politcs Patrol:

    Sir Keir Starmer has admitted that Labour has previously got it wrong on migration. Writing for The Telegraph ahead of a speech countering Reform UK, the Prime Minister acknowledged that, before his leadership, the party “did shy away” from voters’ concerns on illegal immigration: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/09/25/sir-keir-starmer-labour-got-it-wrong-on-migration/

    Every UK working adult will need ‘Brit card’ digital ID under Starmer plan to tackle illegal migration: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/digital-id-starmer-migration-brit-card-b2833633.html

    Former French president Sarkozy given five-year sentence after Libya case: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp98kepmj9lo

    Moscow Warns: Downing Russian Planes Would Mean War, Violations or Not: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/60875

    Zelensky Signals Readiness to Step Down After War Ends, Open to Elections During Ceasefire: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/60840

    Frontline report: Ukraine forms largest Russian “cauldron” yet in Pokrovsk counter-attack, trapping thousands soldiers: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/09/25/frontline-report-ukraine-forms-largest-russian-cauldron-yet-in-pokrovsk-counter-attack-trapping-thousands-soldiers/

    Ukraine shoots down Russian Su-34 bomber over Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Air Force says: https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-su-34-bomber-over-zaporizhzhia-oblast-air-force-says/

    No conclusive evidence linking acetaminophen to autism, says Health Canada in rebuke to Trump: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/article/no-evidence-linking-acetaminophen-to-autism-says-health-canada-in-rebuke-to-trump/

    House Democrat introduces articles of impeachment against RFK Jr: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5521385-kennedy-health-care-impeachment/

    Young Trump Voters Say They Regret Voting for ‘Reckless Dictator’: https://www.thedailybeast.com/young-donald-trump-voters-say-they-regret-voting-for-reckless-dictator/

    White House threatens sharp cuts in US workforce in shutdown standoff: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-tell-agencies-prepare-mass-firing-plans-possible-shutdown-politico-2025-09-25/

    Epstein Investigator Taped Admitting Trump ‘Covered Up’ Files: https://www.thedailybeast.com/jeffrey-epstein-investigator-taped-admitting-donald-trump-covered-up-files/

    Hegseth Ordering Meeting With Hundreds Of Generals Reportedly Sparks Urgency: ‘People Are Very Concerned’: https://www.latintimes.com/hegseth-ordering-meeting-hundreds-generals-reportedly-sparks-urgency-people-are-very-concerned-589862

    NORAD scrambles fighter jets to intercept Russian planes off Alaska: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/norad-scrambles-fighter-jets-intercept-russian-planes-off-alaska-2025-09-25/

  24. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 7:55 am
    Good Morning! here’s Your Local Ish news and Views Roundup.
    _______________________
    Where’s Victoria’s crime stats ?

  27. pied piper says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 7:52 am

    Good to see you’ve been reading your mornings instruction email from Putin

  28. Climate 200

    Against the backdrop of Peter Dutton reigniting the climate wars and the Labor Party pandering to the gas lobby, our movement has been hard at work.

    https://www.climate200.com.au/blog/the-seats-we-are-funding

    “The community groups in McPherson, Moncrieff, Fisher, and Fairfax in Queensland, Cowper and Bradfield in NSW, and Casey, Monash, and Wannon in Victoria will receive up to $50,000 each to turbo-charge their campaigns and help them find the next David Pocock or Dr Monqiue Ryan.

    Over the coming months we’ll distribute every last cent of this fund directly to the groups that have the strongest chance of winning a seat at the Federal election.

    These community groups are all at different stages on their journey to becoming a campaign ready to take on the major parties and win.”

  30. help them find the next David Pocock or Dr Monqiue Ryan.

    When they find the next Monqiue Ryan, perhaps they could spell the first one’s name correctly.

  31. The world isn’t even trying to phase out fossil fuels

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/09/the-world-isnt-even-trying-to-phase-out-fossil-fuels/

    “This article highlights the global failure to address the most important requirement to minimise the climate threat, the phasing out of fossil fuels.

    It also explains why Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target of 62%-70% is closer to a totally inadequate 32%-40% when related solely to fossil fuel usage.”

  32. Thanks c@t and Holden for the extensive round up of reports.

    It would not be a big surprise if a skirmish between Russia and Europe does indeed transpire. Let us all hope that is all it will end up being a quick exchange and retreat by all parties.

    Sigh……….

  33. ”
    Mavissays:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 8:07 am
    The politically naive Hastie may STFU now that two Tory grandees (Artie & Mandy) have given him a public bollocking, though ol’ pa Howard may be wheeled out to support him. At least he
    (Howard) recognised the error of his ways after his 1988 speech on multiculturalism.

    https://www.multiculturalaustralia.edu.au/doc/tlinemculture_6.pdf
    ”

    Mavis
    I don’t know whether multiculturalism is accepted. Hastie’s foray into it by saying that he feels a stranger in his own country harks back to White Australia period.

  34. Recognition of the Palestinian State without halting the genocide: A meaningless decision

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/09/recognition-of-the-palestinian-state-without-halting-the-genocide-a-meaningless-decision/

    “Recognition of the Palestinian state, no matter how widespread or frequent, amounts to nothing unless tied to the immediate cessation of the genocide being carried out in Gaza and the West Bank. There is no state without a people, and no recognition that ignores a people being slaughtered daily before the world’s eyes.

    For 77 years, Palestinians have not abandoned their land despite repeated attempts to uproot them. Instead, they have deepened their presence and sacrificed their dearest for its sake. But today they face an existential moment: either the world intervenes seriously to stop the bloodshed, or recognition of their state will remain a moral illusion soothing Western consciences without changing reality.

    Real recognition is not manifested in words or declarations. It is political and legal, it is moral action, viz., it is action for the protection of lives, for ending settlement expansion and for ensuring the full right of self-determination. The world is at a crossroads: will recognition open up a path to end the occupation and genocide, or will it remain a task and commitment on paper that cannot stop a bullet or save a life? Either way, one truth is beyond dispute: no state can exist without a people living, and no form of recognition is meaningful without justice, nor can there be peace without freedom.”

  35. Taylormade says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 8:20 am
    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 7:55 am
    Good Morning! here’s Your Local Ish news and Views Roundup.
    _______________________
    Where’s Victoria’s crime stats ?
    ———————
    Lol Taylormade

  36. Mavis: “The politically naive Hastie may STFU now that two Tory grandees (Artie & Mandy) have given him a public bollocking, though ol’ pa Howard may be wheeled out to support him. At least he
    (Howard) recognised the error of his ways after his 1988 speech on multiculturalism.”
    ——————————————————————————–
    Egged on by Price and the Sky News crowd and perhaps others in the background (see below), Hastie has gone for glory way too early and way too stupidly.

    This nonsense can only damage the Liberal Party and drive away potential donors, who generally prefer the political parties they back to be pragmatic winners rather than extreme and ideologically pure. Even Canavan now seems to be backpedalling and starting to leave Hastie high and dry.

    As far as I can see, the only possible beneficiary from all this is Angus Taylor, who has been exceedingly quiet lately. Could people close to Angus be playing the good old transactional psychology game of “Let you and Them Fight”? (See the book Games People Play, by Eric Berne.)

    Vanstone’s intervention was very well-timed and well-targeted. She knows better than most that the Liberal Party got extremely lucky when they put Abbott in charge in 2009 and that a major shift to the right at this point in time will not result in their winning office as they almost did in 2010 and succeeded in doing in 2013, because the mostly civilised rivalry between Albo and Chalmers is highly unlikely ever to descend into the quagmire that was R-G-R.

    And there is nothing resembling the MAGA movement in Australia to sweep them into office a la Trump. The best they can hope for if they shift further to the right is to win back some of the votes that the Coalition has lost to One Nation, which, in the context of the Australian preferential voting system, would do relatively little to help them win government. However, the Nats do see One Nation as a major threat, and Hastie has to some extent been sucked into doing their bidding.

    However you look at it, it’s bad news for the Libs. If it does result in Taylor becoming the LOTO, that’s bad news too, because he would be the biggest goose to hold the role since Alexander Downer. (Latham was worse than Downer, but he wasn’t so much a goose as in a category of political maladroitness that was all his own.)

  37. Traditional owners slam state premiers for ‘disgraceful’ call to push ahead with Santos gas project
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-26/peter-malinauskas-under-fire-over-santos-gas-project-gomeroi/105817448

    “Aboriginal leaders have hit back after SA Premier Peter Malinauskas criticised their opposition to a gas field expansion on native title lands.

    Gomeroi traditional owners have been fighting the Narrabri gas field proposal in north-west NSW for more than a decade, with court proceedings ongoing.”
    ———————–

    Teachers and students affected by anti-Palestinian racism, report into schools shows
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-26/report-into-anti-palestinian-racism-in-schools-students-teachers/105809084

    “A report examining anti-Palestinian racism in Australian schools has been released on Friday.

    The Australia Palestine Advocacy Network analysed more than 80 testimonies, but said the responses only scratched the surface of the issue.

    APAN said the incidents were directed not only at Palestinians, but also allies showing solidarity within the school environment. ”
    —————————-

    Illawarra groups want Port Kembla ruled out for AUKUS nuclear submarine base
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-26/port-kembla-declaration-against-aukus-nuclear-submarine-base/105815986

    “More than 40 organisations have signed a declaration calling on the federal government to rule out Port Kembla as a future nuclear submarine base.”

  39. PS Mavis: I would expect Howard to keep away from all of this as far as possible, but to be working behind the scenes to try to get Hastie to shut up. Howard is a pragmatist, and he recognises that the party isn’t going to go anywhere if it lurches to the right. He was never a true fan of Abbott, and only boosted him – and Turnbull too – as part of a “divide and conquer” strategy to make sure that Costello would never get the numbers to bring him down.

    A well-connected person I know says that the party’s elders, possibly including Howard, are inclined to look upon Taylor as a golden boy: a moderate who has cred with the party’s right-wing and also, because of his rural origins, the Nats as well.

  42. Lions by one point. Now wouldn’t that be fitting. That’s my prediction / wish cast.

    —————
    Hastie is worse than Trump. He’s not actually a moron and he is prettier and coherent.

  43. Morning all. Thanks for the International and local roundups Cat and HH. Albo’s speech and trip to the UN seem to have gone down well. Aside from the local usual suspects there has been a lot of good feedback from elsewhere including international media in UK, France etc.

    Australia’s position on Israel/Gaza and Ukraine is in step with most of our defence and trading partners with one exception.

    That exception is USA. Trump’s long rambling rant won USA few friends. Albo loses nothing in popularity or respect in standing apart from Trump. Not being granted a meeting reflects more on Trump than Albo at this point. I don’t think Albo is a great speaker but he is clearly a good decision maker on international affairs.

  46. Cat

    “ Andrew Hastie. The guy Pete Hegseth would have most in common with in politics around the world. Onwards Christian Soldiers. Yee hah!”

    The other figure that seems to think similarly to both Hastie and Hegseth is BRS of defo trial fame.

    I could not help thinking of the photos of BRS with Crusader shield badges on his uniform when reading your comments. Our army should not be a home for far right religious fundamentalists.

  48. ”
    Omar Comin’says:
    Friday, September 26, 2025 at 9:14 am
    Oh no, not Jim Comey

    Oh well I’m sure the rule of law has got his back.
    ”

    LOL Omar.

  49. Mavis: “A Grand Jury has indicted former FBI Director Comey for obstruction of justice.”
    ——————————————————————————-
    This could get quite interesting if Comey is lucky enough to draw the right judge.

    I would imagine that the DoJ case is currently way below the standard required for a trial (and will probably remain so, because the charges are surely a load of steaming crap). So, when it comes before the court, they will no doubt ask for a substantial delay. But what possible grounds are there for this, given that it was the DoJ who chose to take it to the grand jury at this time. I can’t see that going to the grand jury right was necessary for them in terms of gathering evidence. The imperatives were 1) Trump becoming increasingly bolshie and 2) the statute of limitations is soon going to kick in.

    A mischievous judge might decide that, in the interests of justice, the trial needs to commence more or less right away. And then the DoJ will take it to the Supreme Court, which might decide that this is a relatively low risk rebuff they can give Trump, in order to help them maintain their reputation for impartiality. If this happens, Trump is likely to lose it completely and try to do something really stupid to the Supreme Court, which could be a further advance into his metaphorical Stalingrad.

    I’m just fantasising. It cheers me up.

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