YouGov-Blueprint Institute MRP poll (open thread)

An extensive new poll records the extent of the challenge facing the federal Coalition, particularly if it goes down the path of abandoning net zero.

YouGov has conducted an MRP poll for moderate Liberal think thank the Blueprint Institute, a procedure well described in the accompanying release as “different from traditional polling because it uses polling data collected across Australia to model the results across each of the federal 150 electorates by matching the polling data to electorate level data”. Ample detail, and voluminous colour-coded maps, are featured in the accompanying report.

The poll is not concerned with voting intention, but whether respondents would so much as consider voting for each party. With the catch that the survey was conducted some time ago – July 10 to 29, from a sample of 5007 – it finds that only 33% would consider voting Coalition, whereas 58% reported doing so at some point in the past. The equivalent responses on the former question are 42% for Labor, 17% for the Greens and 12% for One Nation. Out of the four Australian Electoral Commission geographic classifications, only in “rural” were respondents more likely to consider voting Coalition than Labor, by a margin of 2.8%, with Labor leading by 8.5% in provincial, 14.8% in outer metropolitan and 17.1% in inner metropolitan.

Helpfully for the poll’s clients, who are presumably resisting a push within the party to abandon its net zero commitment, it finds 49% agreeing the target should be maintained and 30% that it should be dropped, with 51% agreeing they would “only consider a party ready to govern if they have credible policies to address climate change and its impacts”. Among other findings: 24% agreed and 52% disagreed that the Coalition was “in touch with modern Australia”; 33% agreed and 45% disagreed that the party was aligned with their personal values and priorities; and 33% agreed and 42% disagreed that that the Coalition’s values aligned with its own on access to affordable housing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,861 thoughts on “YouGov-Blueprint Institute MRP poll (open thread)”

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  1. Nath you always bring up the islander contribution to the NRL – is this something to do with the Collingwood culture seeing value in white legs and red hair

  2. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 7:49 pm
    Nath you always bring up the islander contribution to the NRL – is this something to do with the Collingwood culture seeing value in white legs and red hair
    _______________
    I do find it fascinating that such a small fraction of the population make up about half of NRL players.

    It would be like if 50% of AFL players were Finns or Cambodians.

    But I think you are jealous OC. Some of those skinny white legs belong to Irishmen.

  4. Ven says:
    Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 7:39 pm
    I have not see anything like recent years when political leaders are falling by the way side like nine pins.
    It looks like people are very unhappy.
    ======================
    Ven,

    People are very quick to form judgement these days. Perhaps it’s the “instant gratification” of social media. ie: People press “enter” and expect humans to respond pronto. Humans obviously don’t function that way, and if you actually push humans around, they tend to behave in the opposite way. {That is, they’ll do a good old fashioned “go slow”}.

    With polling, probably the most spectacular collapse i’ve seen this decade is the disintegration of the polling for Sir Keir Starmer and the U.K. Labour party.

    They fell below 20% on primaries on a YouGov last week.

    They’ve just hit 19% on another poll by an outfit called “Find out now”.

    Link: https://x.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1963576924812239007?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

  8. citizen @ #1807 Sunday, September 7th, 2025 – 8:02 pm

    The great US freedom to express an opinion, except when…

    Broadcasters told not to air any booing of Donald Trump at US Open men’s final

    Trump will appear on big screen during national anthem

    Broadcasters asked ‘not to show any disruptions’

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/sep/06/broadcasters-told-not-to-air-any-booing-of-donald-trump-at-us-open-mens-final

    “I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. … Grab ’em by the pussy. You can do anything.”

  9. Broadcasters told not to air any booing of Donald Trump at US Open men’s final

    LOL Trump is the biggest pussy of them all.

  10. Politicians have to put up with a bit of booing from time to time.
    If they don’t like it, then they should get out of politics and go and do some knitting.

    Let’s go Brandon!

  11. Stoogey Lurker

    “ NSW Premier Chris Minns has said the fuel excise will likely be replaced by a road user charge to capture the increase in electric vehicles.”
    —————————————————-
    Music to my ears. This is a change that is needed, with or without climate change.

    The current road funding system of rego plus fuel excise was broken when Howard ceased indexing the excise back in the early 2000s.

    In real terms revenue has since dropped by over a third, from >1.5% of GDP to less than 1% of GDP today. The total of rego plus fuel excise comes nowhere near the cost of road construction and maintenance, which is 1.8% of GDP. This contributes to inadequately maintained roads, which costs lives.

    Tax rebates mean some road users are incentivised to buy heavier vehicles and drive them further. So the system is unfair as well as inefficient. This needs fixing.

    To Boerwar’s point, a distance based charge would encourage people to drive less where possible or switch modes.

    A National framework is needed to enable this as the Victorian attempt a few years ago was defeated in the HC. With the correct powers states should then set the charge and collect it.

    A congestion charge in cities would also be desirable instead of the current collection of varying road tolls in three out of six states. However this will vary by state and take time as toll franchises expire.

  14. newy boysays:
    Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 7:46 pm

    Daily rate of advance during August: 15.0 sq km
    Daily rate of advance so far in September: 11.3 sq km

    Casualties per sq km August: 62 total (about 15 killed)
    Casualties per sq km so far in Septembert: 76 total (about 19 killed)

    That is, the time and cost for Russia to conquer the rest of Donetsk have both gone UP this past week. …Last week, the casualty rate… Now, it indicates …..
    The military situation is actually shifting, right now, in a direction unfavourable to Russia.
    – – – – – – – – – – – –
    Newy boy, just a warning against over-interpreting a shift in week-to-week data. It’s like taking a movement in a single poll that’s a bit of an outlier and assuming it shows a dramatic shift in voter sentiment.

    Long grinding campaigns like this will fluctuate according to local operational conditions, commander intentions, troop rotations, weather, fickle fortune etc. The change between August and September is more solid than week-to-week, but still not something I’d be making long-term predictions from. I haven’t checked the weather there lately, but the beginnings of the autumn “bezdorizhzhia” (muddy sesason) should start be starting to affect operations.

    “The military situation is actually shifting, right now, in a direction unfavourable to Russia” would be welcome news, of course, but I don’t see enough to say there is a significant shift with any confidence.

  15. Socratessays:
    Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 8:14 pm

    To Boerwar’s point, a distance based charge would encourage people to drive less where possible or switch modes

    _____________________

    I think this is fine 5 out of 7 days, where work for home and hub-and-spoke public transport “should” get workers to where they need to go.

    The other 2? At the back of my mind has always been the issue of equity – essentially a “going to the beach” tax for those families living in the western Sydney suburbs beyond what is already internalized through the fuel excise.

    Then again this might just be a Sydney problem – I’m pretty sure most other capitals have superior public transport to the coast.

  16. So the man from Marrickville supports the Hawks.

    I think due his geographical upbringing he should join Chris Bowen and get on the Giants bandwagon.

    But on one condition. He doesn’t bring his Hawthorn mate Jeff Kennet with him.


  19. Soldiers march during a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan and the end of World War II, in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China. Photograph: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

    Edit: A picture is worth a billion words.

  20. Bizzcan

    It is fair to say there are many equity problems with the current transport system. Sydney has some of the worst with hefty tolls paid mostly by poorer people living further away from the city. A road user charge won’t solve that alone. However it makes a more equitable system possible in the longer term.

    Stockholm’s road user charge (national) and congestion charge (city cordon only) is a good example. For most Sydney drivers it would be far cheaper than the current toll road charges.
    https://www.transportstyrelsen.se/en/road/vehicles/taxes-and-fees/road-tolls/congestion-taxes-in-stockholm-and-gothenburg/congestion-tax-in-stockholm/

  21. Re the Sikhs of Woolgoolga: the original community comprised Sikhs who had arrived in Australia prior to 1901. Most had originally gone to Queensland to work in sugar plantations, but their descendants resettled to the Woolgoolga area to work on banana plantations there due to a labor shortage. Few Sikh migrants arrived in Australia from 1901 to the 1970s, although I think some Sikh soldiers from the British Army in WWII who were permitted to settle there as a reward for their service. And now, of course, the town has become a magnet for Sikhs migrating to Australia.

    Today, the banana-growing has been largely replaced by berry-growing.

    I know all this because I dropped by the Sikh history museum at Woolgoolga on my way through town a few months back. I’d recommend it: it’s particularly good if your interested in finding out about the origins and development of the Sikh religion.

  22. Herald Sun 07/09
    In a rare break with the government and courts, a top cop said Victoria’s approach to youth crime was not “in balance” with community expectations.
    _____________________
    You can say that again.
    It’s not even close.

  24. nadia88,
    A word of caution. You seem to be falling into a similar trap that you set up when you projected the failure of the Albanese government’s Voice referendum loss onto their prospects for the forthcoming federal election. Egged on by the insipid ‘sub _._’ nonsense of Lars. And how very, very wrong that thinking turned out to be in the end. So I wouldn’t start to write off the government of Keir Starmer just yet either.
    Mr ‘18% Why Does He Bother? ‘ turned out to be the most successful conservative PM since Menzies as well.
    So, best not to jump to conclusions too early.

  25. No worries c@t!
    There is another poster on this site who has already suggested that “Sir Keir” might be out of a job post the U.K.Council elections, if the current polling continues.

  27. It is not a particular easy task to replace a UK Labour PM. The party rules force a membership vote even if there is only one candidate. That leaves a period where there will be either a lame duck leader or a blood letting contest. Neither is great.

  31. nadia88says:
    Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 8:11 pm
    Politicians have to put up with a bit of booing from time to time.
    If they don’t like it, then they should get out of politics and go and do some knitting.

    Let’s go Brandon!
    ================================================

    Yes they do but sitting next to Andrew Dillon doesn’t help. I wonder how many were booing Albo and how many Dillon? Though many probably just booing the establishment in general, as represented by both Albo and Dillon.

  32. Entropysays:

    Yes they do but sitting next to Andrew Dillon doesn’t help. I wonder how many were booing Albo and how many Dillon?
    ______________________
    My guess is that no one there could even recognize Dillon.

    Albo was being booed like all other politicians at sporting events. Australians innately know that they are attending the event on the taxpayers coin and they resent it.

  33. The small Sikh community in Perth at the time used to cremate their deceased early last century at a site in what is now the Canning River Regional Park not far from where I live.
    The site has heritage listing.
    https://www.australiansikhheritage.com/wasikhcremationsite
    My first memory of going to the dentist in the 1950s was to a sikh.
    Struck another one about a decade ago but I suspect they are almost common these days.

  34. nathsays:
    Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 9:15 pm
    Entropysays:

    Yes they do but sitting next to Andrew Dillon doesn’t help. I wonder how many were booing Albo and how many Dillon?
    ______________________
    My guess is that no one there could even recognize Dillon.

    Albo was being booed like all other politicians at sporting events. Australians innately know that they are doing so on the taxpayers coin and they resent it.
    ——————————————————–

    I recognise Dillon and hold him and Shocking responsible for some horrible rule changes, particularly the stand rule which is a blight on the game.

    In fact if it turns out a Geelong and Collingwood Grand Final, god forgive. I’ll go for Collingwood as I can’t stand Shocking and his gang of cheats more than Collingwood. So cotton on to that.

  35. nadia88,
    Someone made the observation that Sir Keir Starmer was left an economy in dire straits and that Brexit is the cause of the increase in the small boat arrivals now that the UK is out of the EU. So he has a lot on his plate to fix, plus deal with Trump and his tariffs and lead the support for Ukraine. Not to mention dealing with the gadfly Farage and the Murdoch media empire in Britain which is always against Labour, hence their campaign to get rid of Angela Rayner.
    I actually think he’s been doing a reasonable job, all things considered, but he needs to bite the bullet the way Labor has here and demob the boat arrivals to somewhere else. Until they get the message and stop coming. Then his numbers will improve.

  36. The UK has to tear up the neo liberal economic bullshit, cut the massively bloated finance industry down and to try and divert resources back into public services and infrastructure.
    Yeah the rauntier class will hate it, thats why the UK will probably end up with a fascist instead with all the nasty racists policies instead.

  37. Mr ‘18% Why Does He Bother?’

    As I recall that was when Howard was opposition leader, not exactly a comparable situation.

    The Starmer Labour government in the UK has surprised me in how unprepared they were for government, and how much they’ve fumbled their opportunity.

    It will take some major black swan event to rescue Starmer’s leadership IMO.

    I think there is some possibility for Labour to turn things around if they can engineer a non-shambolic change of leadership to someone who is actually competent at both communicating with the public and following through on some sort of plan. At the moment a lot of Reform’s poll numbers are coming from people simply registering a protest vote against the Tories and the useless Starmer government. If that gets baked in over the next 4 years then PM Farage will be a certainty.

    And of course the issue of immigration is front and centre with very few good options. No government can survive these days if large sections of the public feel that there is no control over immigration – not here, not in the US, not in Europe. Whether that ‘feeling’ is amplified by bad faith actors is irrelevant – it’s an issue, like law and order, that has to be seen (and believed) to be being dealt with in a firm way.

  41. Jackol,
    See my comment @9.22.

    To which I would add that I don’t think UK Labour need a showman or woman. Did Labor need one? No. The Australian electorate wanted a steady pair of hands and that’s what they voted for in May. So I reckon if Keir Starmer can just do a Geoffrey Boycott and steadily put runs on the board, and yes, solve the immigration situation, then he should be able to see off the feckless Farage. As, like you say, the Reform vote is mostly a protest vote right now. And people will be scared off them by the extremists in their ranks.

  42. Yep, looks like no Newspoll tonight.
    Next Sunday most likely.
    We should also get the latest Resolve Poll next Sunday, as well as some NSW state based polling a couple of days later.
    Evening all!

  43. I am inclined to agree with C@t. The next UK election is not due until mid-2029, and assuming the USA has not fallen into a Trump dictator-for-life situation, he will no longer be President in that time.

    Farage will have most likely burned out by then, and that’s the long term plan for UK Labour to settle the ship.

    However, there’s more than a zero percent chance that Farage pulls off a Mussolini and just leads a march of Reform cookers into London and forces a change of government. They’re that frenzied over there, and King Charles is beholden to the far right-wing press, they’d probably call in owed favours for giving him, Camilla, Wills and Kate positive coverage these past 20 years.

  45. C@tmomma @ #1844 Sunday, September 7th, 2025 – 9:49 pm

    I didn’t think of the Royal Family angle, Kirsdarke.

    That’s how Italy fell to Mussolini with his march of Blackshirts. The King just gave everything up to him pretty much. He was well within his rights to have them all arrested and tried as traitors, but they were just given power and that was that.

  46. It would be interesting to watch all the monarchists spin that one, since their latest BS is that the monarchy protects us from a far right populist taking over.

    Who am I kidding? They’ll just move onto their next fairy tale or straw man.

  48. Kirsdarkesays:

    However, there’s more than a zero percent chance that Farage pulls off a Mussolini and just leads a march of Reform cookers into London and forces a change of government. They’re that frenzied over there, and King Charles is beholden to the far right-wing press, they’d probably call in owed favours for giving him, Camilla, Wills and Kate positive coverage these past 20 years.
    ______________________________
    Delusional.

  50. Nick says:
    Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 9:22 pm

    The UK has to tear up the neo liberal economic bullshit, cut the massively bloated finance industry down and to try and divert resources back into public services and infrastructure.
    Yeah the rauntier class will hate it, thats why the UK will probably end up with a fascist instead with all the nasty racists policies instead.

    ________________________________________________

    Because you used the highly triggering (for me) term “neoliberal” (because it is a fake term), I just had to look at the latest UK economic statistics to see if their finance sector is “bloated” and whether there are “resources” to put back into the rest of the economy.

    The best I can gather is that the UK Finance industry is a large generator of economic activity, but not disproportionately so, and hardly employs anyone. At best it is a tax question, but you are not going to find much man power and material to divert to the roads and rail.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8353/

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