Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor (open thread)

Roy Morgan records a dip in the primary vote for a still-dominant ALP.

Roy Morgan pops up again with one of its federal polls accumulating nearly a month’s worth of its regular weekly polling, in this case encompassing a sample of 5001 surveyed from July 28 to August 24. It finds both major parties down on the primary vote from a month ago, Labor by two-and-a-half points to 34%, the Coalition by one to 30%. The Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation is up two to 9%. Labor’s lead on the two-party preferred measure based on 2025 election preference flows duly narrows from 57-43 to 55.5-44.5, though the change on respondent-allocated preferences is more modest, from 57-43 to 56.5-43.5. The accompanying report features breakdowns by state and gender.

DemosAU has a further result from a poll that last week that produced a finding on Palestinian statehood, this one finding 56% support for “the federal government’s proposal to ban access to YouTube for children under 16 as part of a broader social media restriction”, with 29% opposed. The poll was conducted July 31 from a sample of 1079.

Nine Newspapers had follow-up questions from the Resolve Strategic federal poll on Tuesday involving matters related to the economic roundtable, which 49% knew about and 51% didn’t. Pluralities favoured a business cashflow tax (40% for, 15% against) and reducing or abolishing negative gearing (37% and 19% against) and capital gains tax concessions (41% and 21%), but predictably opposed increasing the GST rate (20% for, 51% against) and broadening its base (26% and 44%). It also found 64% support for work-at-home guarantees along the lines being pursued by the Victorian government, with only 17% opposed.

In other news, the first vacancy of the new parliament has emerged with recently elected New South Wales One Nation Senator Warwick Stacey calling it a day less than two months after being sworn in, citing “personal health issues”. The only reporting I’ve seen on who might replace him, which will be a matter for the party’s state branch, is The Australian’s observation of “speculation Senator Hanson could replace Senator Stacey with her daughter Lee Hanson or long-term One Nation staffer James Ashby”. However, “a One Nation source rejected this, saying the replacement should rightfully be a NSW resident”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,050 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. This Friday Morning Aust time Tesla will be announcing the introduction of self driving cars to Australia and New Zealand.You heard it here first!
    Also good to see Houthis bombed excellent about time.

    Iran knows Albo weak as piss and loves Hamas!

  2. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:02 pm
    Entropy – I stand by the fact that the alleged Arsonist on the East Melbourne synagogue could easily have used rally as cover. But then again he may not have.
    By the second part of that comment of mine – that the alleged attacker didn’t have local knowledge – was very likely to be true. The Metro east fire station is literally a 100 metres away from the synagogue.

    Certainly the attack on the restaurant that evening was linked to people who had attended the rally.
    ———————————————–

    Any actual source for your last sentence here?

    Considering the restaurant attack was on a Friday night and the rally was Sunday midday.

    How do you use a rally at Sunday midday for cover for a synagogue attack that took place the Friday night before that rally?

  3. Entropy,
    Whataboutism does not your point prove.

    Don’t shoot the messenger. I was just lucky enough to catch the whole press conference.

  4. Entropy,
    The rallies were not linked to the Addass Synagogue attack. They were linked to organised crime figures. As was the restaurant attack. You’re going off on a tangent here to try and disprove something that isn’t factual.

  5. Bizzcan @ #141 Tuesday, August 26th, 2025 – 2:50 pm

    Why would expelling the Iranian ambassador be an act of “punishing” the local Iranian community? They are fellow Australians and do not answer/belong to Iran, nor need to answer for Iran.

    As a current or former Iranian citizen in a foreign country, you may have need of the local embassy for various reasons. If not for yourself, then perhaps on behalf of family members still in Iran, or perhaps for issues related to business or trade. The lack of an ambassador and senior diplomatic staff could hamper that.

    While I never had to have direct dealings with any ambassadors, I certainly had to interact with senior Australian embassy staff on a few occasions when I traveled, lived and worked overseas.

  6. The SMH reporting that the gunmen is supposedly a sovereign citizen …of all things

    After yesterdays story re guns and their lobby group that are gaining traction….

    And guns on the increase ….expect Jacinta to announce news gun laws maybe like WA’s new ones…….one can hope

  7. I am sure that the genocidally-inclined Iranian Government took into account the potential impact on its citizens abroad of its actions.

    It has that caring sort of ethos.

  8. Entropy says:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:09 pm
    B. S. Fairmansays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:02 pm
    Entropy – I stand by the fact that the alleged Arsonist on the East Melbourne synagogue could easily have used rally as cover. But then again he may not have.
    By the second part of that comment of mine – that the alleged attacker didn’t have local knowledge – was very likely to be true. The Metro east fire station is literally a 100 metres away from the synagogue.

    Certainly the attack on the restaurant that evening was linked to people who had attended the rally.
    ———————————————–

    Any actual source for your last sentence here?

    Considering the restaurant attack was on a Friday night and the rally was Sunday midday.

    How do you use a rally at Sunday midday for cover for a synagogue attack that took place the Friday night before that rally?

    ______________________________________________
    It’s all here.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-08/three-charged-melbourne-israeli-restaurant-miznon/105507930

  9. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:14 pm
    Entropy,
    The rallies were not linked to the Addass Synagogue attack. They were linked to organised crime figures. As was the restaurant attack. You’re going off on a tangent here to try and disprove something that isn’t factual.
    —————————————————–

    The restaurant attack was by over zealous protesters. Who were a break away group from the mainstream protesters I believe and decided to hold their own separate small protest that got out of hand. . They were not at all associated with the Synagogue attack though.

  10. C@tmomma @ #142 Tuesday, August 26th, 2025 – 2:54 pm

    6. The reason Australia was chosen? Our successful multicultural society. Our social cohesion, as the PM and the Director General of ASIO, both pointed to. It is the envy of the world. Theocracies don’t like that. They are highly-motivated to seek to destroy it.

    I wondered where my tinfoil hat had gone. You can keep it.

  11. Guns taken from fatally wounded officers, offender believed to be sovereign citizen
    Police were at the property to execute a warrant for historical sex abuse allegations when the two officers were shot dead in an ambush and another wounded.

    https://www.smh.com.au/

  12. BW –

    Minns needs to reverse himself here.

    I certainly hope so.

    Hypothetically making the upper house numbers easier to navigate (and there’s no guarantee of that of course) isn’t worth even the appearance of weakening gun control. Minns was weaseling his way through trying to sound like there really won’t be any change, but … constant proactive vigilance is required. This should be a 3rd rail issue for mainstream Australian politicians.

  13. Jackol
    Places in which we used to recreate in NSW have simply become no fun because of the gunnies. This will make it infinitely worse.

    SO MUCH FOR THE BOPPER fans like P1, etc.

  14. The Iranian have yet to be linked to the East Melbourne attack. It didn’t have the hallmarks of an “organised” attack, that the Adass synagogue attack did. It looked more like a “lone wolf” style.
    You were suggesting I had egg on my face because of my comments on that attack.

    I was in no way suggesting that the vast majority of the protesters were involved in any violence.

  15. TPOFsays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:19 pm
    ————————————————

    A small rally that was totally separate from the large Sunday rally at the State Library though.

  16. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:27 pm
    The Iranian have yet to be linked to the East Melbourne attack. It didn’t have the hallmarks of an “organised” attack, that the Adass synagogue attack did. It looked more like a “lone wolf” style.
    You were suggesting I had egg on my face because of my comments on that attack.
    —————————————————————-

    Both attacks have been linked to dark web contracts linked to Iran.

    Neither can be considered lone wolf attacks as in both cases the criminal or criminals were paid to do it over the internet.

  17. Which genocide is Iran currently working on?
    “I am sure that the genocidally-inclined Iranian Government took into account the potential impact on its citizens abroad of its actions”

  18. The new LOTO, perhaps tired of being compared to the previous LOTO, seems to be now taking inspiration from Morrisson in 2019:

    “During the government’s 3-day talk fest, the introduction of a new housing tax, new death tax, new wealth tax, new tradie tax, and new levies on Australian businesses were floated. Is the Prime Minister aware of any work the Treasurer has commissioned on these proposals?”

    In later questions they threw in some more taxes, including a tax on empty bedrooms.

  19. Player One:
    As a current or former Iranian citizen in a foreign country, you may have need of the local embassy for various reasons.

    Are there any neurons firing under that tinfoil hat?

    The reason why there are so many “former” Iranians in Australia is because they detest the Islamic theocratic regime in Iran. I doubt they have any love for the IRGC.

  20. bryon says:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:35 pm
    Which genocide is Iran currently working on?
    “I am sure that the genocidally-inclined Iranian Government took into account the potential impact on its citizens abroad of its actions”

    _____________________________________________

    The genocide of Jews in Israel. As evidenced by the surrounding of Israel with Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Of course you will laugh at this. Israelis don’t.

  21. Entropy,
    I wasn’t referring to the idiots who shouted at diners at the Jewish-owned restaurant. I was referring to the arson attack at the restaurant that was thought to be owned by Jewish people but they had gotten it wrong.

    I don’t know if you are confusing the two on purpose, but if it’s a genuine mistake then you should better inform yourself of the facts.

  22. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:43 pm
    Entropy,
    I wasn’t referring to the idiots who shouted at diners at the Jewish-owned restaurant.
    =======================================================

    I have no idea what incident you are referring too nor where that happened. The restaurant incident being discussed was the one on the same night as the Synagogue fire.

  23. Player One says:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:19 pm
    C@tmomma @ #142 Tuesday, August 26th, 2025 – 2:54 pm

    6. The reason Australia was chosen? Our successful multicultural society. Our social cohesion, as the PM and the Director General of ASIO, both pointed to. It is the envy of the world. Theocracies don’t like that. They are highly-motivated to seek to destroy it.

    I wondered where my tinfoil hat had gone. You can keep it.

    You are one bitter and twisted individual, Player One. Is there nothing that happens in this country that you will not seek to capitalise on and turn into a personal attack?

    So why do you keep turning up here every day, Player One? For the spiteful, vindictive sport of the game you think you play with good people (unlike you) here, as a cat does with a mouse?

    Or is it because (as we all suspect), your life in the real world would be even more empty without Poll Bludger?

    Because, (as you’ll probably try to say), it’s not to school us about Climate Change, Stoogey Lurker walks all over you in that department.

    No, you’re just some perennial biggest, bitterest loser with what seems to me as a gigantic (sustainably-grown wood) chip on their shoulder who gets sick kicks from putting people down anonymously online. Using intricate knowledge about Climate Change as your cudgel. Or cherry-picking a comment by others so as to pathetically attempt to humiliate them? When you are the one who ends up looking foolish because of your incomplete grasp of the facts, intentionally or otherwise. Yet again.

    Sad.

  24. ‘Sovereign citizens’, as they like to identify as, are people who have psychologically given up on real life and taken up a life of fantasy.
    They are incredibly dangerous to the community.

  25. Entropy says:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:46 pm
    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:43 pm
    Entropy,
    I wasn’t referring to the idiots who shouted at diners at the Jewish-owned restaurant.
    =======================================================

    I have no idea what incident you are referring too nor where that happened. The restaurant incident being discussed was the one on the same night as the Synagogue fire.

    So you don’t have all the facts to hand, after all? Okay, got it.

    There were 2 attacks on restaurants, one arson, the other idiots who splintered from the Pro Palestine movement:

    1. Iranian government directed two attacks against Jewish community
    By Nick Newling

    Anthony Albanese has announced that the Iranian government directed at least two attacks against the Jewish community in Australia.

    The attacks were against the Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne and Lewis’ Continental Kitchen in Sydney.

    2. In short:
    About 20 protesters converged on an Israeli restaurant in Melbourne’s CBD on Friday night.

    The incident came at the same time as a synagogue in East Melbourne was damaged in an arson attack, which protest organisers say was unconnected to their demonstration.

    What’s next?
    Two women and one man are facing charges of assault, affray, riotous behaviour and criminal damage with police alleging chairs were thrown in an altercation.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-08/three-charged-melbourne-israeli-restaurant-miznon/105507930

    Now do you get it, Entropy?

    One restaurant was in Sydney. The other restaurant was in Melbourne.

  26. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 3:42 pm
    Entropy –
    There is no mention of the East Melbourne attack in July of this year being linked to the Iranians. It looks and feels “different”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-26/iran-behind-antisemitic-attacks-asio-says/105697762
    ——————————————————-

    Possibly you are correct on that one. As further reading states he was homeless and was sleeping under a bridge in Flinders Street after coming to Victoria from NSW. His fuel source to start fire was alcohol. Which is very poor fuel source to start a hot fire. So if he was contracted over the internet, they certainly hired a dud there.

  27. “One restaurant was in Sydney. The other restaurant was in Melbourne.”

    So totally irrelevant to mine and B. S. Fairman’s discussion then.

  28. “Sussan Ley is doing a post-partyroom press conference. She seems to be ditching tradition, where normally a party member will give the media a direct briefing of what went down in the meeting, what issues were discussed, and what legislation will be looked at or voted on this week.” [GA 12:45]

    She may have been forced to ditch tradition because she can’t trust her colleagues. Earlier, in the joint-party room meeting, Cash, Antic, Canavan, Pasin, R. Wilson and Kennedy broke ranks to demand a debate on net zero.
    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/coalition-divisions-deepen-as-mps-push-for-net-zero-debate/news-story/46068b513d83a36a73d67de8710c10d7

    This seems to have been leaked from within the meeting.

  29. ‘Stoogey Lurker says:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 4:04 pm
    ….’
    ================
    The centre did not hold in the Liberal Party.
    Ley is a shag on a rock.
    The extremists will bring her down.

  30. I have no idea what incident you are referring too nor where that happened. The restaurant incident being discussed was the one on the same night as the Synagogue fire.

    _______________________________________________

    There are too many fucking incidents, the cumulative effect of which is to drive up legitimate fear in the Jewish community – something that posters like Entropy, Sohar and too many others here are happy to minimise.

  31. Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 4:04 pm
    Iran is a habitual exporter of state terror.

    ——————————————

    As far as I know it is first time they have been linked to exporting it here? They certainly have exported it to places like London in the past though.

  32. TPOFsays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 4:05 pm
    I have no idea what incident you are referring too nor where that happened. The restaurant incident being discussed was the one on the same night as the Synagogue fire.

    _______________________________________________

    There are too many fucking incidents, the cumulative effect of which is to drive up legitimate fear in the Jewish community – something that posters like Entropy, Sohar and too many others here are happy to minimise.
    ——————————————————–

    I think minimising fear in the Jewish community is a good thing. Why does TPOF wish to inflame it, is more the question.

  33. Player One says:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 12:11 pm

    I understand that it is tough for many here to see their beloved party being constantly….. criticised …

    Oh, I like it when the Green-tinted bludgers assail Labor. This buttresses Labor’s support. The greater the distance between Labor and the Trot-lite/crypto-Reactionaries the better.

    There is Labor and there are their many inconsequential detractors, among whom there are none punier than P1 and Peg. Long might they post.

  34. ‘Entropy says:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 4:08 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 4:04 pm
    Iran is a habitual exporter of state terror.

    ——————————————

    As far as I know it is first time they have been linked to exporting it here? They certainly have exported it to places like London in the past though.’
    ==================
    It is quite symmetrical.
    Iran is a state exporter of terror to Israel, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
    Israel is a state exporter of terror to Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.

  35. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 4:19 pm
    Entropy,
    Don’t try and drag me for pointing out your misapprehensions to you.
    ——————————————————-

    I was discussing events in Melbourne with B.S. Fairman, as we are both Victorian’s. I wasn’t aware you were discussing an event that didn’t occur in Victoria. As that was pretty much outside our focus.

  36. Shogun @ #170 Tuesday, August 26th, 2025 – 3:40 pm

    Are there any neurons firing under that tinfoil hat?

    You’d have to ask C@t. She has mine. I am letting her keep it since she seems to need it more.

    The reason why there are so many “former” Iranians in Australia is because they detest the Islamic theocratic regime in Iran. I doubt they have any love for the IRGC.

    I realize this is a difficult concept, but you don’t need to love your (current or former) country to have a need to use its embassy.

  37. Rex Douglas, Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 1:44 pm:

    It all sounds weird. Doesn’t add up. Why would they bother with us ?

    The rest of the world doesn’t see other countries as ‘not relevant to them’ as much as you do, Rex. 😉

  38. “Hastie says he believes in a sovereign, secure, competitive and prosperous Australia.”

    “Dan Tehan as a role as our energy shadow and I want to respect their sovereignty over the policy area,” Hastie says. [ABC live blog]

    > Seems like poor timing (at best) to be using the word ‘sovereign’.

  39. Some good news I got from an email from the Climate Council.

    Holy moly! We have momentum!

    In a major boost in our campaign to push for the Federal government to set the strongest possible climate target next month, 500 businesses – from IKEA to Fortescue to Canva – have joined the call!

    Why? They know that climate action means opening up new opportunities for the sunny country in clean power and exports, as well as protecting us all from escalating climate damage. It just makes business sense.

    Today new modelling from the firm Deloitte proves just that: a stronger climate target grows our economy and creates jobs.

    Australia’s current climate policies are already expected to halve our climate pollution in the next ten years. The Federal Government is due to set Australia’s 2035 climate target – to ratchet up this effort – within weeks.

    Deloitte finds that compared to a weaker 65% climate target, a stronger 75% target could unlock $227 billion in GDP and support 45,000 more jobs per year over the next decade.

    The message from this new report is loud and clear: there is a concrete path to stronger climate action in the next decade – and it’s not only essential for a safe climate, it’s smart economics.

    This is an advantage unique to Labor (when it’s unified anyway). They can bring along Unions, Businesses and Communities with their plans for effective long-term action, while the Coalition is currently tearing itself apart over the matter.

    Even if the Coalition decides to abolish net zero, they would then be unelectable in 2028, and even if they somehow win in 2030-31, net zero would still effectively be locked in, unless they truly do act like fascist maniacs in power and push through something like a national ban on all Solar and Wind energy.

  40. Hack @ #188 Tuesday, August 26th, 2025 – 4:17 pm

    Player One says:
    Tuesday, August 26, 2025 at 12:11 pm

    I understand that it is tough for many here to see their beloved party being constantly….. criticised …

    What I find most amusing about your ellipsis is that it removes the words “but justifiably”.

    Which – if you think about it (and I realize this is difficult for you) – kind of demonstrates my point.

  41. If the IRG directed attacks were aimed solely at disruption social cohesion in Australia (I’m still trying to see a motive here though) doesn’t that made them them attacks that are not anti-sematic?

    Overall isn’t this good news? It demonstrates that locally gown anti-sematic attacks and views are not as prevalent as some in media and politics would have us convinced of.

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