Nine Newspapers’ Queensland title the Brisbane Times has a poll of state voting intention from Resolve Strategic, which like this week’s Victorian poll combines responses from the last two monthly national polls, in this case from a sample of 801. As with polling since the federal election in New South Wales and Victoria, it records remarkable movement from Coalition to Labor – the Liberal National Party is down fully eleven points from the previous result, which combined polling conducted from January through April, to 34%, barely ahead of Labor who are up ten to 32%. The Greens are down two points to 10% and One Nation is steady on 8%. That implies a Labor two-party lead of about 51-49, although such calculations will be complicated if the government follows through on its plan to introduce optional preferential voting.
David Crisafulli’s lead over Steven Miles as preferred premier has narrowed, though less dramatically, from 44-22 to 40-25. Crisafulli in fact records a two-point improvement to plus 20% on “net likeability” compared with the pre-election poll (this measure was not included in the poll from earlier this year), while Steven Miles is up twelve to minus 1%.
Did Resolve poll over correct this time the other way round?
This poll is nothing to see, This is likely a honeymoon for federal Labor rather than a rejection of the LNP.
Miles cannot win. If they replace him with Scanlon or Dick I’d give a chance of a Labor minority but a majority? unless they can take seats like Coomera, Glass House, Currumbin and make sure they win Everton when Mander retires. There is 0% chance of 47, because Labor ain’t winning those Townsville seats back. and there is no sure thing they will hold Bundaburg, Smith got very lucky.
Labor bare minimum will need Barron River, Cook, Mulgrave and Rockampton in regional QLD, if they win non of those, LNP minority unless Labor can win say seats like Nicklin back which I seriously doubt. Caloundra is more likely.
Even if we assume Labor gets Redcliffe, Capalaba, Pumicestone, Caloundra, Everton, Rockampton, Cook, Mulgrave, Redlands, Chatsworth, Glass House (Pending redistribution and Powell retirement) and Coomera (But lose South Brisbane to the Greens) that still does not get Labor to 47….
Labor will need Mackay, and Maryborough if they cant win the Townsville seats or Barron River.
I will also add that if Labor doesn’t win any of those regional seats I just mentioned in the previous sentence, then Labor will need to hope and pray Minnickin retires in Chatsworth and gain that.
Tough road for Labor ahead. but not plain sailing for the LNP, but they should be comfortable as long as Miles is ALP leader.
“Daniel Tsays:
Friday, August 22, 2025 at 9:56 am
This poll is nothing to see, This is likely a honeymoon for federal Labor rather than a rejection of the LNP.”
What rot, it is a state poll. Voters know the difference between State and Federal Governments. Hence the DemosAU poll last month in Qld showing good LNP state figures but also good ALP Federal figures. So voters often vote differently at different levels of Government. Your contrived answer that it is due to Federal ALP being popular flies in the face of the fact that Federal ALP has been popular for quite awhile. Which for the majority of that time Qld LNP were popular too.
DemosAU poll link from July, showing a popular Qld state LNP and popular Federal ALP vote in Qld simultaneously:
https://demosau.com/news/queensland-poll-july-2025/
Big swings do the resolve polls have fleas?
Hard to believe both states vic and qld have swung big with same result at same timing.
Entropy, You do realise Labor has also gained federally in the polls since May right? Also the approvals do not stack up. Miles is unpopular and Crissafuli has a 20+ approval. there is no reason why anyone should believe this poll. There is also no regional breakdown so unless Labor is surging in Brisbane, but as I said earlier, unless Labor picks up traditional safe LNP seats in SEQLD like Currumbin, Theodore or even Moggil, Nicklin, etc they have very little chance of majority without regaining seats in regional QLD
It is probably a little from Column A and little Column B. The federal election and its aftermath has had some impact on state polling. Especially the bit about the Liberals and Nationals divorcing and then reconciling, really hurts the LNP in Queensland where they are in a formal marriage with kids.
But column B too is the Crisafulli governments own honeymoon is wearing thin and the shine is coming off as they now have to own the decisions and the problems as they arise. Opposition is easier in the sense that you can promise a lot and need to deliver nothing – can’t do that once in government.
It looks like hung parliament territory but it would largely depend on where the vote has shifted. The polls sample size is on the smaller size too.
Post-election pendulum.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_2024_Queensland_state_election
Daniel Tsays:
Friday, August 22, 2025 at 12:28 pm
Entropy, You do realise Labor has also gained federally in the polls since May right?
——————————————————————–
You do know the polls where both ALP Federally and LNP State in Queensland were both polling well were in July and not May?
The July poll in Qld showed Albo in full honeymoon mode with State Qld LNP still going strong. Any change now in state support want be due to any change in Albo honeymoon polling from July .
Looking into it, there’s going to be a state redistribution of seats in Queensland by about mid-2026.
https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/enrolment/enrolment-figures
According to this page, there’s probably going to be a bit of movement around Bundamba, Caloundra, Coomera, Gaven, Gregory, Gympie, Hervey Bay, Jordan, Logan, Mundingburra, Murrumba, Oodgeroo, Stretton, Toohey and Traeger.
I don’t know if Miles can or can’t win, but we’re too far away from the next election to expect too much from this poll.
Buyer’s remorse setting in.
Buyer’s remorse indeed, GoW.
Campbell Newman 2.0.
The problem for the LNP is that Mr Crisifulli is trying to keep the ship steady while Mr Bliejie is a throwback to the cando days of rip rip woodchip. The real fear is that Mr Bliejie is the real LNP and represents the views of his team more accurately. Right across the country the Libs are doing their darndest to represent various minority views that if put together are a huge turn off to the average city dweller.
Princeplanet @ #13 Friday, August 22nd, 2025 – 5:43 pm
I agree with that. There’s a strong chance that Bleijie will make a move for a leadership spill, I reckon probably around 2027, but for that to happen then the LNP’s numbers can’t be too high. Little acts of sabotage here and there where it can’t be traced to him that Crisafulli loses a bit of shine to the point where his leadership becomes untenable.
Similar to what Vincent Tarzia and company did to David Speirs in SA, only the rules to that game are different when done in Government than in Opposition.
Yes for sure Kirsdarke, people wanted some action on crime especially in FNQ but this has proved more intractable ( surprise, surprise) than just chucking them in youth detention. Queensland at state level is a Labor state despite what southern people might think. Mr Crisifulli seemed to understand this but LNP ideologues are in their own version of Disneyland.
I don’t think David Crisafulli is successfully pushing himself as that middle ground moderate leader to reclaim seats in Brisbane. Attacking unions, closing down wind farms, and scrapping truth telling inquiries may appeal to the base but it doesn’t give a sense that he is different to any previous LNP leader. I will acknowledge not all these issues the public feels strongly about but it does give the impression to moderate Brisbane voters the state LNP are too right wing to consider.
It’s too early to say how Steven Miles will go at the next election. And being a previous premier may go against him as a opposition leader for being a rehash rather then a reset that other state opposition leaders Rob Borbidge and Rob Kerin found. But never underestimate the Labor party machine in Peel st they know how to win state elections and the LNP are more then aware of this threat.
PN: I don’t underestimate Miles he has this appeal to young blokes that other Labor leaders have struggled with. His power lifting and muscular approach seems to have found an undercurrent that I as an older bloke was unaware existed. During the last election Labor looked headed for disaster, I remember a ubiquitous poster on here – Nadia, being convinced that Labor would be in single figures a la 2012 after the election.Miles bravura performance surprised everyone especially his jetski ride across the gold coast Broadwater . He almost pulled the chestnuts out of the fire and another week of campaigning might have got Labor close to minority territory. Mr Crisifulli and the LNP were fading badly and Qlders were having second thoughts. I still think the LNP are in the box seat for another term due to regional issues but they are not really knocking it out of the park at the moment. If the federal Labor become unpopular well it may save their bacon but as you say the Qld Labor machine is formidable and brisbane is getting more dominant population wise with each passing year.
Guys, the election is over three years away. It is almost certain that Miles will not remain OL until then. He remained on to take responsibility and start the rebuild but it is abundantly clear that Dick and Fentiman are waiting in the wings. His decent 2024 campaign aside, Labor would be stupid to try and rerun Miles.
A good friend of mine, who knows Crisafulli personally, tells me that the qld Premier has know guiding political philosophy at all. His ambition chose his party, not necessarily his ideology.
I don’t suggest that is a good thing, just an observation.
“I agree with that. There’s a strong chance that Bleijie will make a move for a leadership spill, I reckon probably around 2027, but for that to happen then the LNP’s numbers can’t be too high. Little acts of sabotage here and there where it can’t be traced to him that Crisafulli loses a bit of shine to the point where his leadership becomes untenable.
Similar to what Vincent Tarzia and company did to David Speirs in SA, only the rules to that game are different when done in Government than in Opposition.”
@Kirsdarke
Certainly no LNP backer here, but I give this a big nope. David Crisafulli has backing of the moderates but he would have some backing from the Right who had to endure more then a couple of cold winters in opposition during Labor’s dominace in government. Plus a high influx of regional MP’s who won their seats because of Crisafulli’s election win. Leaves you wonder where Jarrod Bleijie will get his support from. Even Murdoch’s rag Courier Mail aren’t backing Bleijie. I read an article that suggested there was no alternative to Crisafulli in LNP’s ranks and front benchers Laura Gerber and Sam O’Connor are two elections away.
Knifing a first term premier in the back isn’t fashionable with the public that have had a hangover from these shenanigans. After the ugly chopping changing of Prime Ministers federally. And the spectacular implosion of state conservative governments in N.T. and Victorian governments by chopping down a first term Premier/Cheif minister. There is nothing to gain and everything to lose for the LNP by doing this.
@Political Nightwatchman at 10:52am
I reckon the Sky After Dark crowd would be willing to back such a move, the way they’re going. Especially if Crisafulli doesn’t indulge their Culcha War bugbears adequately enough.
At this point, less than a year since the election, yes, they would be mad to make such a move, but 2 years down the line in late 2027 when they think Crisafulli is being too woke (they’d see everything to the left of Joh Bjelke-Petersen as “woke”) then Bleijie and company could be encouraged to cause trouble, especially since that’s where the grassroots of the LNP are going.
@Kirsdarke
The redistribution process is already underway
https://redistribution.ecq.qld.gov.au/home
I have great faith in the Qld National Party (the Lib part is a joke) to forget all discipline and start getting their snouts back into the governmental troughs sooner rather than later.
Already they have gone back on multiple election promises, almost immediately going back on promises to extend the railway to Maroochydore and confirming the Olympic stadium will be built at Victoria park after all.
>almost immediately going back on promises to extend the railway to Maroochydore and confirming the Olympic stadium will be built at Victoria park after all.
And now gold coast light rail extension.