Wolf + Smith: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

A new federal poll records similar results to others of Labor’s post-election honeymoon, and finds predictably little appetite for a broadened GST base.

In an otherwise quiet week for federal polling, the Financial Review reports a Wolf + Smith poll of 5000 respondents conducted from July 18 to 30 has Labor with a 57-43 lead on two-party preferred. All we are told of the primary vote is that Labor leads the Coalition 36% to 30%: I will hopefully be able to offer more information later today. Anthony Albanese is credited with a fairly modest lead over Sussan Ley on preferred prime minister of 45-35. The poll also finds 18% support and 47% oppose broadening the base of the GST. Respondents were seemingly also given options on how cuts in income tax should be funded, with 56% favouring higher company taxes. Wolf & Smith is associated with Yaron Finkelstein, a former principal private secretary to Scott Morrison and Crosby Textor strategist, which was last heard from through a similarly large-sample poll in August last year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,415 thoughts on “Wolf + Smith: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Ashasays:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 7:46 pm
    I would call them Israel lobbies, simply because we are talking about groups who clearly do not represent all Jewish people, such as non Zionist\ pro peace Jews.

    Yeah, that’s fair, I agree.
    ——————————————————

    Except “Israel lobby” was what TPOF blew his top off over when Simpson used it earlier today (see below).

    S. Simpson says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 9:52 am
    Tim Wilson’s comments are understanding. He managed to buck the trend at the election and regain his seat due to support from the Israel lobby in his area.

  2. Oh, just as I posted that, another 6 videos appeared.

    – ‘Doesn’t stop the war’: Labor’s step on Palestinian recognition is ‘meaningless’ (ft. Steve Price and Andrew Clennell)
    – ‘Totally out of their depth’: Albanese and Wong humiliated after ‘bizarre’ Palestine plan (ft. Andrew Bolt)
    – Albanese largely ‘spurred on’ by UK and France with Palestine call (largely a repeat of Steve Price and Andrew Clennell, I’m starting to get the feeling that they do multiple uploads of the same segments with different titles so they really get the algorithms).
    – ‘Quite embarrassing’: Australia’s recognition of Palestine is ‘not helping Israelis’ (ft. Steve Price and Emily Gian).
    – Labor’s ‘caveat-loaded’ Palestinian recognition announcement labelled ‘hollow’ (ft. Steve Price).
    – ‘Cracked the whip’: Donald Trump cracks down on Washington with National Guard (ft. Steve Price, Terry Barnes and Gerard Holland)

  3. Entropy says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 7:38 pm
    Omar Comin’says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 7:26 pm
    Entropy, assuming that is your real name, it’s outrageous for you to slur the moderator like that, I hope you take that back.
    —————————————————

    The poster Perotti was so intimidated by Nath he referred to him as Grayson. A bully of some reputation. I stand with Perotti and declare him to be Grayson too.
    ===========================
    I think the correct name of the poster you are referring to is “Poroti”, and not Perotti.
    Poroti (I think) dropped off the site mid 2022.
    So given Entropy didn’t correct the spelling, I can deduce that Entropy is not Poroti (or Perotti).

    Anyway, whilst nath is off the site after his attempt at “playing being WB” {he probably got deleted}, I’ll have a quick go at playing “pretend WB”.

    Entropy – You keep me going.

  4. Omar Comin’says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 7:44 pm
    Entropy (assuming that is your real name) from my perspective you are making it sound more funny than sad, but I am not the moderator so if you have a problem you are wasting your time talking to me.
    ===================================================

    Those living under the cruel tyranny of Nath. Had laughter as one of their few escapes.

  5. I think the correct name of the poster you are referring to is “Poroti”, and not Perotti.
    Poroti dropped off the site mid 2022.
    So given Entropy didn’t correct the spelling, I can assume that Entropy is not Poroti (or Perotti).

    Anyway, whilst nath is off the site after his attempt at “playing being WB” {he probably got deleted}, I’ll have a quick go at playing “pretend WB”.

    Entropy – You keep me going.
    ————————————————

    A fair point, then again it could be deliberate misdirection.

  6. The Trump move to take over policing in DC with National guard soldiers is both dangerous and really counter productive. Firstly, western democracy don’t use troops in that manner and looks like a third world nation.
    Secondly, it is going destroy morale in the National Guard. I can bet they don’t want to be used for political purposes, especially when it means being dragged away from their civilian jobs to go write parking tickets and put homeless people on buses. Recruitment and retention in the US military are at record lows currently and this not going to help.

  7. Omar Comin’ says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 7:57 pm
    nadia88 your attempted counter-coup will be reported to the moderator
    ==========
    Yes Omar, you are quite on point. Sin has occurred.

    WB – I apologise for trying to darken your doorway by pretending to be you for a single mini post.
    Please do not “delete me”. I am a goodie here.

  8. B. S. Fairman @ #2358 Tuesday, August 12th, 2025 – 7:57 pm

    The Trump move to take over policing in DC with National guard soldiers is both dangerous and really counter productive. Firstly, western democracy don’t use troops in that manner and looks like a third world nation.
    Secondly, it is going destroy morale in the National Guard. I can bet they don’t want to be used for political purposes, especially when it means being dragged away from their civilian jobs to go write parking tickets and put homeless people on buses. Recruitment and retention in the US military are at record lows currently and this not going to help.

    I’ve heard it said that this is mostly Trump aiming to provoke a “situation” by sending the military into heavily Democratic city centres that hate him.

    All it could take would be someone throwing a rock at a soldier and he’d immediately be like “That’s it! Martial Law! The constitution is suspended, I am King now.”

  9. Centre, Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 7:35 pm:

    In 2014, at the time of President Obama, and under a neutral Ukrainian government, Zelensky, with the support of the US, then assumed the presidency.

    Correction: Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected President of Ukraine in a landslide in the election of 31 March 2019, early in the third year of Trump’s first term. Are you saying Trump supported Zelenskyy for the Ukrainian Presidency?

    Maybe a few Google searches can help you with your fact-finding on recent Ukrainian history.

  10. Centre, Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 7:02 pm:

    So I take it that it is perfectly fine for Ukraine to join NATO (an organisation where countries sign a pact to tag team against Russia in case of a war), given that they share a large border?

    No wonder we have a war in Ukraine!

    Finland’s accession to NATO in 2022 more than doubled NATO’s border with Russia. Why didn’t Russia go to war over that? That was an actual expansion of NATO eastward, as opposed to the mere opening of a theoretical possibility that Ukraine MIGHT join, many years down the track.

    Also, how close is Finland to St Petersburg, compared to how far Ukraine is from there or from Moscow? Yet, Russia invades Ukraine.

    I call bullshit on the ‘NATO threatens Russia through Ukraine’ excuse for Putin’s imperialist conquest of Ukraine.

  11. Kirsdarke @ #2351 Tuesday, August 12th, 2025 – 7:49 pm

    Oh, just as I posted that, another 6 videos appeared.

    – ‘Doesn’t stop the war’: Labor’s step on Palestinian recognition is ‘meaningless’ (ft. Steve Price and Andrew Clennell)
    – ‘Totally out of their depth’: Albanese and Wong humiliated after ‘bizarre’ Palestine plan (ft. Andrew Bolt)
    – Albanese largely ‘spurred on’ by UK and France with Palestine call (largely a repeat of Steve Price and Andrew Clennell, I’m starting to get the feeling that they do multiple uploads of the same segments with different titles so they really get the algorithms).
    – ‘Quite embarrassing’: Australia’s recognition of Palestine is ‘not helping Israelis’ (ft. Steve Price and Emily Gian).
    – Labor’s ‘caveat-loaded’ Palestinian recognition announcement labelled ‘hollow’ (ft. Steve Price).
    – ‘Cracked the whip’: Donald Trump cracks down on Washington with National Guard (ft. Steve Price, Terry Barnes and Gerard Holland)

    Sounds like Albo must finally be doing something right.

  12. In International EV news:

    + “Haven’t you heard the good news? We’re going back to gas here in America. With no fuel economy rules to speak of anymore, or really any standards when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions, our beloved car companies are now free from the burden of having to do stuff none of them ever really wanted to in the first place.

    If you’re a petroleum company, the current moment might feel like a kind of godsend. After all, the sales of purely combustion cars have been falling for years, and that sort of thing can’t be good for business.

    But there’s just one problem: outside of the United States, the rest of the world is electrifying quickly. Even countries we’d deprecatingly classify as “developing” ones. And soon, the world’s largest economy will be, perhaps for the first time in modern history, a technological laggard.”
    https://insideevs.com/news/768551/america-ev-transition-cm/

    + “Honda has been one of the biggest laggards in the auto industry when it comes to full vehicle electrification. It took forever to bring a long-range electric vehicle to market, and then outsourced it — the Honda Prologue is really a GM vehicle underneath. Honda executives have made countless negative comments about electric vehicles, and the company’s efforts to turn its loyal customers into EV fans and buyers have been nearly nonexistent.

    Now, the company has reported a very poor quarter in terms of sales and finances, and it is blaming this on EVs while reconsidering whether it wants to maintain its previous electrification plans. Where’s the facepalm emoji when you need it? Honda is almost last to the EV party, has barely put any effort into electrification, and is already thinking about going backward.”
    https://cleantechnica.com/2025/08/10/honda-late-to-the-ev-party-putting-in-half-hearted-efforts-now-disappointed-with-results/

    + There is also this video of lightning hit a BYD:
    https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/byd-ev-and-its-driver-survive-being-struck-by-lightning-three-times

    ?format=webp

  13. “I would call them Israel lobbies, simply because we are talking about groups who clearly do not represent all Jewish people, such as non Zionist\ pro peace Jews.”

    That’s pretty obvious. Jews, like pretty much any ethnic group are not a homogeneous block.

  14. Entropy @ #2370 Tuesday, August 12th, 2025 – 8:58 pm

    + There is also this video of lightning hit a BYD:
    https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/byd-ev-and-its-driver-survive-being-struck-by-lightning-three-times

    ==========================================================

    Obviously didn’t have an operational flux capacitor though. As the BYD remained stationary in time throughout the event.

    You apparently didn’t notice that the BYD was next years model! 🙂

  15. “The Trump move to take over policing in DC with National guard soldiers is both dangerous and really counter productive.”

    Basically much the same as in LA. Send them in with essentially nothing to do but hang around and be bored, and hope something happens he can exploit. NG as trolling bait.

  16. imaccasays:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 8:58 pm
    “I would call them Israel lobbies, simply because we are talking about groups who clearly do not represent all Jewish people, such as non Zionist\ pro peace Jews.”

    That’s pretty obvious. Jews, like pretty much any ethnic group are not a homogeneous block.
    =========================================================

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WboggjN_G-4

  17. One for the Happy Clappers …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/aug/12/risks-of-climate-crisis-to-australias-economy-and-environment-are-intense-and-scary-unreleased-government-report-says

    An unreleased Australian government report on the economic and environmental risks posed by the climate crisis is “intense and scary”, and confronting even for those who work in the area, according to people familiar with the assessment.

    The delayed report – the national climate risk assessment – includes modelling of future climate damage, estimates of the number of people who could be killed by worsening heatwaves and a mapping tool that forecasts flooding risk in suburbs across the continent.

    Developed by the Australian Climate Service and the climate change department, it was delayed until after the May election along with other Labor climate documents, including a 2035 emissions reduction target and a climate adaptation plan. The government is expected to release them within weeks – the 2035 target is due by September – but dates have not been confirmed.

    Sources who have seen drafts of the risk assessment said it included scenarios that showed the climate crisis would affect all Australians, including in ways that to date have been little discussed in political debate.

    The analysis considered the climate impact on eight systems: defence and national security; the economy, trade and finance; First Nations values and knowledge; health and social support; infrastructure and built environments; the natural environment; primary industries and food and regional; and remote communities.

    The results suggest that under some scenarios major systems – including electricity networks, transport routes, food production and supply, and the financial sector – could struggle to cope with rising temperatures and escalating extreme events.

    One source, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the report, said: “My sense is when people read it they have a newfound sense of where climate change will lead. It is intense and scary. Even for someone who has been focused on this and thinking long and hard about IPCC

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    reports, it’s confronting to read about the details and the severity of the impacts.”

    “Intense and scary”. Why are we not being told this?

  18. Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 9:02 pm
    Entropy @ #2370 Tuesday, August 12th, 2025 – 8:58 pm

    + There is also this video of lightning hit a BYD:
    https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/byd-ev-and-its-driver-survive-being-struck-by-lightning-three-times

    ==========================================================

    Obviously didn’t have an operational flux capacitor though. As the BYD remained stationary in time throughout the event.

    You apparently didn’t notice that the BYD was next years model!
    —————————————————–

    Maybe it is a 2075 model and that’s not lightning but the automatic aerial recharge system. That became standard from 2072 onwards.

  19. Player One says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 8:41 pm

    Sounds like Albo must finally be doing something right.

    _______________

    Steady on there, Player One! You might want to check your temperature 🙂

  20. Entropy says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 9:08 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 9:02 pm
    Entropy @ #2370 Tuesday, August 12th, 2025 – 8:58 pm

    + There is also this video of lightning hit a BYD:
    https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/byd-ev-and-its-driver-survive-being-struck-by-lightning-three-times

    ==========================================================

    Obviously didn’t have an operational flux capacitor though. As the BYD remained stationary in time throughout the event.

    You apparently didn’t notice that the BYD was next years model!
    —————————————————–

    Maybe it is a 2075 model and that’s not lightning but the automatic aerial recharge system. That became standard from 2072 onwards.
    ___________________________

    Nah, they watched Back to the Future, thought it was a documentary and hired Doc Brown as a consultant to funnel the 1.21 gigawatts into the battery, for next years model will use Mr Fusion.

  21. This rogue foreign company News Corporation is clear threat to democracy and social cohesion in Australia. If they weren’t destroying the conservative side of politics I’d say drive them out of town. Watching News Corporation destroy the Liberal Party is both fascinating and enjoyable, but comes with the side effect of about 20% of the population being crazed, brainwashed, quite dangerous far-right fanatics. They need to be monitored in the same way Islamic extremists are. News Corporation seems to get more and more crazed and fanatical and far-right the older Rupert gets and in the process the Liberal Party is literally being destroyed.

  22. Voice Endeavoursays:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 1:48 pm
    Probably won’t get around to submitting anything to the AEC, but it seems like the ACT should have a pretty big shakeup.
    ….
    I’d suggest Fenner should be all of Belconnen, Molonglo Valley and then parts of Gungahlin and Weston Creek to balance the numbers. Canberra should lose Inner South and the parts of Woden it has, and gain Gungahlin. Bean would then gain Woden and lose Molonglo Valley.

    This should produce a system where Gungahlin and Weston Creek are the two areas being ‘split in two’, rather than Belconnen and Woden each being split.
    – – – – – – – – – –
    I tend towards minimal necessary changes, so I don’t see it this way.
    Also, just for aesthetic reasons, I prefer an electorate named for Canberra centred on the Parliamentary triangle, with inner north and south, as opposed to skewed off to one side.
    Just off the top of my head, I’m not even sure that the ACT *requires* changes (biggest and smallest electorates being within size tolerances) but perhaps this would be worthwhile:

    Note – enrolments are Bean 114000, Fenner 105000, Canberra 103000

    1. Shift Hawker-Aranda area from Canberra to Fenner. Finesse numbers by including/excluding Aranda/Giralang/Lawson/Kaleen.
    2 .Shift southern end of Woden from Bean to Canberra. Finesse numbers by concentrating on east side of Athllon Drive, and if needed, shifting Lyons and Curtin (on the west side of Athllon Drive) the other way, from Canberra to Bean.
    I haven’t run detailed numbers, but I think that would bring Fenner and Canberra to ~110K, Bean would be small at just over 100K, but contains the fastest growing areas, so would even out over time. Generally improves the alignment of boundaries with the “natural” geography, demarcated by green spaces, though admittedly not 100%.
    This would largely (not completely) resolve the Belconnen & Woden splits you object to without making wholesale changes.

    At the *next* redistribution, when the Molonglo Valley has grown more, there will probably be an opportunity to move to a nice clean arrangement with boundaries along Federal Hwy/Gunghalin Drive (Canberra-Fenner), William Hovell Dr (Fenner-Bean), and the Parkway/Farrer Ridge (Canberra-Bean), with very few anomalies. That would tick all the boxes for size, compactness, “communities of interest” etc.

  23. Has anyone looked into the upcoming Northern Territory local elections? Seems like there are some interesting races like the Darwin mayor.

  24. The liberal media are mostly too polite to call out what is happening in DC. At best they will say something like, it’s an “assault on the political independence of a racially diverse city.”

    GA US blog

    His supporters know what is happening. In their eyes, Trump is the white saviour who has come to restore the natural order. If LBJ was still around he’d probably say something like:

    “I’ll tell you what’s at the bottom of it. If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”

  25. Player One says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 9:21 pm
    Griff @ #2376 Tuesday, August 12th, 2025 – 9:10 pm

    Player One says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 8:41 pm

    Sounds like Albo must finally be doing something right.

    _______________

    “Steady on there, Player One! You might want to check your temperature”

    Under Albo? 2.3 degrees centigrade and still rising.

    ________________

    Phew! We wouldn’t want you to catch cold 🙂

  26. “Nah, they watched Back to the Future, thought it was a documentary and hired Doc Brown as a consultant to funnel the 1.21 gigawatts into the battery, for next years model will use Mr Fusion.”

    —————————————————–

    The correct term is “historical documents”.

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/EL2n1lM1QyY

  27. ““Intense and scary”. Why are we not being told this?”

    Leaving aside that you and I should both already know how scary the endgame of climate change could get, the answer is literally in the bit you quoted:

    “The government is expected to release them within weeks – the 2035 target is due by September – but dates have not been confirmed.”

    God forbid anybody try to release a report in an organised way with clear air so it can have some focus. If they released it this week instead you and the Guardian would either accuse them of burying it under the Israel story or using it to bury the Israel story.

  28. It’s actually insane that News Corporation is allowed to operate in Australia. It should be given a reasonable timeframe to divest, and if it refuses, seized without compensation and flogged off to various Australian buyers. Only Australian citizens should be allowed to own media in Australia!

  29. Wrt Regurgitator songs and SAD, it’s a toss up between “Crush the losers” and “Sucked a lot of cock to get where I am”.

  30. sollydisa says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 9:22 pm
    Has anyone looked into the upcoming Northern Territory local elections? Seems like there are some interesting races like the Darwin mayor.
    ===============
    13 candidates in the City of Darwin.
    I was thinking that the owner of the “mad snake cafe” might get a go – Sam Weston.
    An ex-soldier. Could be the right fit for Darwin. We’ll see.
    Election day is 23-August
    Who is your pick?
    Welcome to the site by the way if you are new. Haven’t seen your moniker here before.

  31. @imacca – as a history of Zionism it has the usual glossovers, like this bit – “The war of independence followed within hours. Some 700,000 Palestinians fled to the West Bank (then belonging to Jordan), Gaza (a part of Egypt) and the neighbouring Arab states. This is known among Palestinians as the Nakba”

    Not stated – who attacked who, why the Palestinians fled, what Jordan and Egypt did with the fleeing refugees.

    Also not mentioned – the UN resolution founding Israel, which the Arabs immediately breached.

    These are fairly major historical omissions for something purporting to be an impartial backgrounder.

    It’s not as bad as some but if you actually know history you can see the slants.

    It is good in one way, in that it acknowledges that despite the use of Zionist as a dirty word by many campaigners, there is no intrinsic clash between having a two state solution with a Jewish state and a Palestinian state, that Netanyahu doesn’t represent all Zionism.

  32. Stoogey Lurker says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 9:23 pm
    The liberal media are mostly too polite to call out what is happening in DC. At best they will say something like, it’s an “assault on the political independence of a racially diverse city.”

    GA US blog

    ——————–
    Hey Stoogey,

    It’s an easy city for Trump to attack.

    Most of his supporters would hate DC anyway (ie: it’s probably woke/gay/leftie/trans/green/pro climate change/full of evil public sector workers, etc, whatever), so he gets a boost amongst the tribe by sinking the boot into his nation’s Capital. As for D.C. citizens. They vote about 90% Democrat.

    He hasn’t got much to lose when only 10% of them vote for him.
    In simple language, it’s a win win for him.

  33. nadia88says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 9:36 pm
    sollydisa says:
    Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 9:22 pm
    Has anyone looked into the upcoming Northern Territory local elections? Seems like there are some interesting races like the Darwin mayor.
    ===============
    13 candidates in the City of Darwin.
    I was thinking that the owner of the “mad snake cafe” might get a go – Sam Weston.
    An ex-soldier. Could be the right fit for Drwin. We’ll see.
    Election day is 23-August
    Who is your pick?
    Welcome to the site by the way if you are new. Haven’t seen your moniker here before.
    ——————————————————–

    They have posted before at 9-33 pm on July 17th in the open thread and on July 18th at 8.51 am in the Tasmanian thread. I’m disappointed you are not up with these things. Looks like we might have to go back to Nath.

    P.S: If you don’t want your posting record known use as a moniker something that as a search term isn’t very original.

  34. Imacca at 9.02pm.

    “Trump to take over policing in DC”.

    Let’s not overlook what started this. He was having yet another day off and was being driven to a golf course and saw some homeless people while looking out the limo window.

    In one way he does have some qualifications to take over the cops, he certainly knows what a crook is.

  35. (not sure how to reply to comments). I would’ve thought the incumbent Kon Vatskalis would be overwhelming favourite for Darwin Mayor (got 58% primary in 2021 and running for a third term). But I don’t know anything really about the area.

  36. @S. Simpson I increasingly wonder about the relevance of media ownership laws in the age of social media. How much does it matter where the content comes from? how much does it matter where the algorithms come from? But no one has as yet suggested local algorithm regulation (which would have been a much less intrusive solution to the U16 social media ban and probably better at achieving the outcomes). But I very much doubt there will be any meaningful benefit at this time from requiring local ownership of News Corp. Anyone with dedication can get themselves a microphone and record content that is just as slick as anything Sky News Australia puts out after dark.

  37. Entropy,

    I haven’t seen that poster on the site before, or at least since I returned in late July.
    Is there some sort of “thing” between you and “Sollydisa”.
    10 minutes and you’ve got his/her posting history tucked away somewhere.

    What have I walked into, as it seemed a fairly innocuous post by the poster regarding Darwin.

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