Click here for full display of Tasmanian results.
End of night
I’ve been wrong before about Hare-Clark, but my take on the result is that the Liberals are looking 14 or 15 seats, meaning they have either broken even or gained one; Labor will win 10 or 11, meaning ditto; the Greens have broken even with five; the three independents elected in 2024 will be joined by a fourth; Shooters Fishers and Farmers should win their first ever seat and are a chance of a second; and the balance is accounted for by the evaporation of the Jacqui Lambie Network, none of whose three members have prospered either as independents or Nationals. Four of the five divisions seem to me to have straightforward results, the exception being Bass, though others might also cast doubt over Lyons.
The Liberals gained about 4% everywhere except Franklin, where independent Peter George’s 17.6% drained all comers. This reflected an 8% to 10% Jacqui Lambie Network vote from 2024 being up for grabs in the three regional divisions, only around 2% of which went to the Nationals in Bass and Braddon, increasing to a bit over 4% in Lyons. Conversely, the JLN vacuum didn’t prevent Labor dropping by a few points across the board, though not seemingly at a cost of any seats.
Eric Abetz won the evening’s creative electoral accounting prize for trying to make something out of the Greens’ 6.4% drop in Franklin, but this was clearly down to support for Peter George from voters who would happily have stayed green in his absence. Elsewhere the Greens were up by between 0.4% in Clark and 4.3% in Bass, with some help from a no-show from Animal Justice who polled 1.5% statewide last year. Only half of an increase in the aggregate independent vote from 9.6% to 15.3% was down to George: Craig Garland in Braddon and Kristie Johnston in Clark doubled their vote share, and the competition from George didn’t prevent David O’Byrne from gaining handily in Franklin.
To deal with the five divisions in turn:
Bass. The Liberals clearly have enough for three seats (3.31 quotas), Labor for two (2.21 quotas) and the Greens for one (1.32 quotas), but the seventh seat is unclear. The Greens face the problem that their incumbent, Cecily Rosol, should soak up most of the party’s lower-order preferences without getting elected until near the end of the count, meaning their other candidates will fall by the wayside. Two Liberals (Bridget Archer and Michael Ferguson) and one Labor (Janie Finlay) will be elected early in the count, with Rosol winning only when the last other Green is excluded. Incumbent Rob Fairs will then win a a third seat for the Liberals, and either Jess Greene or Geoff Lyons (both newcomers, though the latter a former federal member) a second for Labor. The last seat will come down a fourth Liberal (impossible to pick out of incumbent Simon Wood and newcomers Julie Sladden and Chris Gatenby), a third Labor (whichever out of Greene or Lyons didn’t win the second) and Michal Frydrch of Shooters Fishers and Farmers. The starting point for this game of musical chairs is 0.37 quotas for Shooters, a 0.31 surplus over their third quota for the Liberals, and a 0.21 surplus over the second quota for Labor. Labor will presumably get a fair chunk of the Greens’ surplus, and the 18.3% vote for the distinctly moderate Archer means a higher-than-usual share of the Liberals’ own vote is likely to leak out of the ticket, some of it to Labor (and presumably not much to Shooters).
Braddon. The Liberals are only a fraction short of four quotas, meaning incumbents Jeremy Rockliff, Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch are to be joined by a fourth in former federal member Gavin Pearce. Labor is only just shy of two, ensuring re-election for Anita Dow and Shane Broad. Independent Craig Garland doubled the vote that got him narrowly got him elected last time, and had more reason to be cheerful than his ABC TV interview suggested. The Greens, with 0.58 quotas, are no threat to him, and the Nationals managed only 1.6%, ending the short parliamentary career of Miriam Beswick, who ran with the party after winning a seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network in 2024.
Clark. A straightforward status quo result in terms of party seat share: the Liberals retain two, with Simon Behrakis re-elected and newcomer Marcus Vermey to unseat Madeleine Ogilvie; Josh Willie and Ella Haddad are re-elected for Labor; Vica Bayley and Helen Burnet are re-elected for the Greens; and independent Kristie Johnston is handsomely re-elected with 15.2%, after dipping from 11.0% to 7.7% in 2024.
Franklin. Peter George’s win looks like coming at the expense of the Liberals, with Eric Abetz and Jacqui Petrusma re-elected but Nic Street missing out. The party has a seemingly solid 2.70 quotas, but stands to receive next to no preferences. Despite the 6.4% gouge taken out of their vote by George, the Greens have 1.11 quotas, ensuring re-election for party leader Rosalie Woodruff, and their preferences together with George’s should ensure that Labor’s 1.82 quotas converts to re-election for Dean Winter and Meg Brown, and that 0.88 is enough to re-elect former Labor leader and now independent incumbent David O’Byrne.
Lyons. It is clear the Liberals will win three seats, re-electing incumbents Jane Howlett, Guy Barnett and Mark Shelton; that Labor will win two, with Jen Butler re-elected and former federal member Brian Mitchell unseating Casey Farrell, who recently filled Rebecca White’s vacancy; and that Tabatha Badger will retain her seat for the Greens. I don’t see the last seat going to anyone other than Carlo Di Falco of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, though others are more circumspect. He has 0.58 quotas and will not suffer leakage, being the only candidate on the ticket. His competition are the Nationals on 0.34 quotas, which means former Liberal member John Tucker; and a fourth Liberal, Stephanie Cameron, given that party’s 0.32 surplus over their third quota. Postals and the New Norfolk pre-poll booth have the potential to change the equation a bit, but past experience suggests not much. So presumably either Tucker or Cameron goes out and their preferences decide the last seat between Di Carlo and the other. I tend to think nearly as many Nationals preferences would go to the Shooters as the Liberals, but if the Liberals go out, maybe there’s some hope for Tucker.
Election night
10.18pm. If anyone’s finding my live results of value, please note that the considerable effort has thus far gone unremunerated, a situation any one of you can correct using the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and post.
9.45pm. Bird of Paradox in comments reiterates a point I made during my podcast appearance with Ben Raue that has since slipped my mind, which is that a fair chunk of the 41.4% Liberal vote comes from an 18.3% vote for Bridget Archer, much of which might be from people otherwise not favourably disposed towards the party. My previous assessment had Bass at three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens and the last seat a race between a fourth Liberal and a second Green – I’d suggest leakage from Archer would shorten the odds on the latter.
9.25pm. Struggling Labor election night panellists have been invoking the potential for late-reporting pre-poll booths to turn things around, as their Coalition equivalents did on the night of the federal election. However, the first three pre-polls are not encouraging on this count. Two are in from Bass: George Town, where the Liberals are up 7.4%, and Scottsdale, where they are up 5.2%, which compares with 3.8% on election day results; and Burnie in Braddon, where they are up 3.4% compared with 4.2%.
8.08pm. So assuming I’m right about all that — and minds better attuned to mine that Hare-Clark will have been focusing their full attention on this while I was hunting bugs — I’ve got Liberal matching their 14 from the previous parliament and hoping for as many as 16. A status quo of 10 looks like the best Labor can hope for, and they may be down to nine. The Greens look like holding their five seats with possibilities of one or two gains through a second seat in Bass or a first in Braddon. The three independents are re-elected and will be joined by Peter George and possibly one of his running mates, plus Shooters look like having a seat. None of the JLN class are making a mark, whether as independents or Nationals.
7.59pm. Shooters are doing very well in Lyons, suggesting Carlo Di Falco could be joining three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. Brian Mitchell looks like being a third recently departed federal member to win a state seat, taking one of Labor’s two off incumbent Casey Farrell with Jen Butler re-elected. The three Liberal incumbents are untroubled.
7.56pm. Peter George doing well enough in Franklin to potentially elect a running mate off his coat-tails, which would come at the expense of a third Liberal if it happened – the rest looks like Labor two, Greens one plus David O’Byrne. Labor newcomer Jess Munday is polling disappointingly, suggesting Labor’s seats to remain with the incumbents. Eric Abetz and Jacqui Petrusma will be elected, with Nic Street the loser if George gets that second seat.
7.52pm. A big shift in Clark from Labor to Kirstie Johnston, but it still looks like a status quo of two Labor, two Liberal, two Greens and Johnston, with Elise Archer failing to register. Madeleine Ogilvie looks like losing one of the two Liberal seats to newcomer Marcus Vermey, the strongest on the Liberal ticket.
7.50pm. A big result in Braddon suggests this is a good night for the Liberals, suggesting four seats with former federal member Gavin Pearce taking the second without unseating any of the incumbents, namely clear leader Jeremy Rockliff followed by Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch. Labor are down as much as the Liberals are up, such that they might even be reduced to Anita Dow — Shane Broad, if he gets up at all, will first have to overcome Vanessa Bleyer of the Greens. Craig Garland has a quota in his own right, making the result four Liberal, one Labor, one Greens and Craig Garland, with the last seat either a second Liberal or first Green.
7.46pm. In Bass we’ve got big movement from Labor to the Greens, suggesting polls showing the Greens a shot at a second seat might have been on the money. Shooters are polling well no doubt because of an imbalance of rural booths in the current numbers. The Liberals are up, so my initial impression here is Liberal three, Labor two and Greens one, with the last seat a battle between a fourth Liberal and a second Green. Janie Finlay assuredly gets Labor’s first seat with Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons fighting for the second; huge result for Bridget Archer, to be followed by Michael Ferguson and Rob Fairs, with Simon Wood doing no better than lower-order newcomers in the race for a possible fourth seat; anyone’s guess who a second Green might be. Rebekah Pentland is failing to register as an independent.
7.40pm. I think I might have fixed the problem now, so will finally have some analysis to offer shortly.
7.15pm. I believe there is a problem with my projections, which are at present too favourable for the Liberals, but the system should at least be of use for observing results and swings at booth level.
6.50pm. So anyway, we’ve got one small rural booth in for each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons, and a mobile result from Clark from which my swing figure won’t tell you anything useful. But the first three all have Liberal well up and Labor well done. Early days though obviously, with about 400 votes in all.
6.48pm. Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he had swing figures from the Irishtown booth. The only and only place you can find such a thing is through the link above.
6.44pm. A little later than I’d have figured, there are some numbers and my system seems to be processing them okay.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Tasmanian state election count. Polls are now closed and we should be getting the first results from small rural booths fairly shortly. Through the link above you will find live updated results throughout the night and beyond, inclusive of an effort to project party vote shares in each of the five divisions through booth-matched swings.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025-tasmanian-election-pathways-to.html
2025 Tasmanian Election: Pathways To Government #politas
Dr B. By the time I got to the end of your article I had an ever darker feeling about the prospects for stable government than I had when I started reading it.
🙁
If Tasmanians wanted stable government, they would have voted for it.
@KB – there’s plenty of other possibilities than you mentioned. Do you have a view on the likelihood of the following:
* Rockliff meets the house, receives a vote of no confidence;
* Winter either remains seated, or stands up and fails to get confidence
* then someone else stands up. Kristie Johnson, Madeline Oglivie or Rosalie Woodruff being most likely.
I don’t think Labor want to go to another election. They might be tempted by a spot on the crossbench if they can’t get the top job.
Thank you Kevin
A propaganda war is being conducted with the Libs flooding the zone with trash. A draft “stability agreement” been released. Literally not a single independent has signed it but its being reported online as a fait a complis.
Turns out its just a chatgpt generated document.
Labor up to 10 seats now, Liberals 14, 5 Greens, 4 Independents, 2 still in doubt – from the ABC elections site.
Ian Whitchurch 9.17am
Interesting article, thank you.
The conservative way to improve the state’s financial position is obviously not to raise taxes; yet I’m not sure if the public mood is ready enough to improve the state’s finances to start looking favourably on fossil fuel (and metal mining? – do they have some deposits?) extraction to grow their economy and grow inward investment, i.e. in simple terms the state should be utilising under-utilised resources at hand. I’m sure there may be other substantial resources that I’m not aware of, that could be looked at, I don’t know.
It’s perfectly possible to do these things with due regard to the wider environment these days, but the anti-lobby is very strong and often militant.
So what other options does the state have? I do think in the long-term the new stadium will boost the wider economy by more than is anticipated – large infrastructure projects have a way of doing that, and for all its costs, becoming a full AFL member is no white elephant. But whatever government is in power, needs more than an AFL team to power up the economy to a level that brings in enough revenue to reduce the yearly or structural deficits.
I also note that the report speaks more of deliberate choices that have led to the budgetary position (as well as Covid, like the rest of the world) rather than mismanagement / poor value for money, per se. This is in the Liberals’ favour, but they now need to make new ‘choices’ that will start repairing the budget without scoring an own goal by reducing growth (as higher taxes tend to do, for example, so they need to be very selective with these).
goll 10.05pm
Your post was addressed to me, but apologies I didn’t see any question or quite understand if there was a psephological point I should have been taking from it – or whether you were just ruminating in despair at what you see is the current situation.
I would be really grateful if Kevin Bonham or someone else with local/insightful knowledge, could answer my 7.01pm and 7.07pm posts from yesterday pm.
@Kevin Bonham
So going by Kevin’s post it looks like we just twiddle our thumbs until 2 August?
BTSays says:
Monday, July 21, 2025 at 7:01 pm
Is it possible under H-C for a party/grouping to get >1.0 quotas in total, yet have no-one elected due to the split amongst multiple candidates and leakage? – or do they legally have to be allocated one winner from the list in that scenario?
All candidates are considered individuals whose votes can leak from group easily. If a group has 7 candidates all with 0.2 quotas but no voters preference other candidates in same ticket, then it is perfectly legal, though unlikely for the group to have zero elected from 1.4 quotas
Tasmania has a long history of mining metals along the lightly populated west coast. Fossil fuel resources (coal) are quite limited. Accordingly, hydro electricity is the is the dominant form of energy used and the state is ideally situated for wind generated power, taking advantage of the “roaring forties” constant westerly winds. The Basslink undersea cable (Tasmania to Victoria) allows surplus power to be exported or imported if the dams used for hydro electric generation hold insufficient water. There is also an undersea gas pipeline supplying natural gas from Victoria. Wind power generation has faced some opposition as it does on the mainland from certain interests.
BTSays
Is it possible:
a) Ogilvie could come out in front of Simon Behrakis in the end? (presumably ‘yes’, although not anticipated particularly)
– Yes, there is likely 900 votes between them. I would probably favour behrakis still, but often female voters will preference female candidates all first, so Ogilvie might make gains off Jessica Barnett, di florio and Elise archer quicker than behrakis does. Who knows if Ogilvie history as having quit alp while an elected member will work for or against with outer ticket preferences, but I do know behrakis is very hated amongst the left
b) Ogilvie could nip in ahead of Helen Burnet of the Greens in the end, e.g. with Elise Archer’s prefs, and give Libs a 3rd seat? (even if technically ‘yes’, she would need a decent flow of her Lib colleagues’ prefs as well as Archer’s, to even have a chance, given that there’s no Nat or SFF to hope for prefs from.)
– technically yes, but greens also have a very even split with burnet 0.57 and Bailey on 0.72 and lots of left preferences to come from other greens and Johnston. Also lib preferences are splitting 3 ways while greens split only 2, so it would take a miracle for libs to get a 3rd in clarke
Thanks Wolfe!
Two new Not-A-Polls added to sidebar at kevinbonham.blogspot.com : Who will win the sixth seat in Bass and who actually won the election?
BT Says: “Is it possible under H-C for a party/grouping to get >1.0 quotas in total, yet have no-one elected due to the split amongst multiple candidates and leakage? – or do they legally have to be allocated one winner from the list in that scenario?”
Answer: Yes. I would doubt it has ever happened, but I suspect that getting x quotas and not winning x seats, where x is 3 or greater, has happened. The party quota total has zero significance to the result, it is about candidates.
BT Says:
“Clark
Madeleine Ogilvie does have 0.54 of a quota already as the Lib vote share is spread quite efficiently between the top 3 candidates.
Is it possible:
a) Ogilvie could come out in front of Simon Behrakis in the end? (presumably ‘yes’, although not anticipated particularly)”
Yes it is possible and I am hoping to scrutineer this tomorrow. I have heard of a scrutineering sample where Ogilvie would gain at a rate fast enough to leave her still behind but able to win off out of ticket preferences, and I must study this dumb deal.
“b) Ogilvie could nip in ahead of Helen Burnet of the Greens in the end, e.g. with Elise Archer’s prefs, and give Libs a 3rd seat? (even if technically ‘yes’, she would need a decent flow of her Lib colleagues’ prefs as well as Archer’s, to even have a chance, given that there’s no Nat or SFF to hope for prefs from.)”
No. Archer’s preferences splatter. Archer was kicked out of the parliamentary Liberal Party, quit her seat and at this election ran as an anti-government moderate. The Liberals cannot possibly win three especially with Labor preferences that will assist the Greens.
Voice Endeavour:
“@KB – there’s plenty of other possibilities than you mentioned. Do you have a view on the likelihood of the following:
* Rockliff meets the house, receives a vote of no confidence;
* Winter either remains seated, or stands up and fails to get confidence
* then someone else stands up. Kristie Johnson, Madeline Oglivie or Rosalie Woodruff being most likely.
I don’t think Labor want to go to another election. They might be tempted by a spot on the crossbench if they can’t get the top job.”
The standing up/being seated thing in Liberal partyroom challenges doesn’t apply here. It’s done by motions. Labor would put the motion in the form that the House has no confidence in Jeremy Rockliff AND has confidence in Dean Winter. If the crossbench refused to back that Labor would remain in opposition and blame the crossbench for effectively siding with the Liberals and being greedy. Better that than propping up a crossbench government, which might be justified in the name of budget repair but could result in the party becoming completely irrelevant.
blackburnpseph:
“Could Labor fall in behind a Greens+George+Johnston+Garland+O’Byrne alliance that may have the same seats as Labor? They won’t want to but may need to to break the impasse.”
Johnston will not work with O’Byrne. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-24/david-o-byrne-accused-of-more-sexual-harassment-kristie-johnston/100401340
KB 8.35pm – thanks, I just wasn’t sure about this.
KB 8.38pm – thanks again. I suppose I was thinking of a scenario where voters – who don’t behave in the same manner as one might expect from who they vote for – voted for Archer AND Libs lower down on prefs, esp as Rockliff / Lib government is also moderate, even though that wouldn’t be what Archer herself would wish them to do.
But I fully accept what you say – esp as you comment “Archer’s preferences splatter.” indicating you already have hard evidence of what you go on to state.
Why hasn’t the ABC declared Madeleine Ogilvie defeated? WB thinks she has lost according to the blog. So why does the ABC still think she is in with a chance when she is trailing the other liberal guy who is ahead of her?
I just want Madeleine Ogilvie defeated, she is a turncoat-traitor, Anyone who switches parties should be expelled from state parliament.
Demos AU Analysis of their election prediction here.
Link: https://demosau.com/news/tasmanian-election-poll-review/
They were fairly close to the primary and seat tallies, except they underestimated the Lib vote.
They also picked up the correct Pref Premier, as opposed to youGov which declared Winter to be the Pref Premier.
Edit (i suppose) with that last comment, as Winter could still scramble together a C&S agreement and be declared Premier, so YouGov may have the last laugh.
Anyway, fair effort from DemosAU, polling a state which seems to be generally difficult to poll.
Thanks Nadia
That was a pretty decent effort by DemosAU
On the other hand, YouGov…
Thanks for the response KB, interesting to know that Labors motion would tie no confidence and confidence together in the same motion, I had assumed it would be done through two consecutive motions.
I’m tipping that the most likely outcome is that Rockcliff continues on for another ~10 months (i.e. the lead up to the next budget) and then is turfed out, although I’m not confident enough to predict whether the next premier will be blue, red or other.
No worries meher.
Can I gently ask how is young Mr Mischief. He must be coming up to the big “20” if my memory serves me correct.
So what happens if the answer to the various “options” for forming government is “none of the above”? The Greens won’t give confidence to a Labor government that proposes to ignore them, Labor won’t form a coalition, and the Libs can’t whip 18 votes. Rockliff just stays Premier by default? That hardly seems like an acceptable outcome, much less a stable one. Surely not another election; two in a year with virtually the same results in terms of seat count means that dissolving the people and electing another, as Brecht would say, is not going to accomplish anything.
My pre-election musings about Harry and Meghan being invited to assume the monarchy by appanage in the absence of any reasonable method of self-rule are looking prescient.
Tasmania should be a destination for more migrants. We take 20,000 refugees a year, at least half should be settled in Tasmania.
The housing is cheaper, the Government built housing would create jobs, more people means more consumption, more young people and immigrants tend to open small businesses etc.
A boon for Tassie, and some relief for the likes of Sydney and Melbourne.
How is it that Grouped tickets appear to be of varying sizes, but party tickets in each seat are for a full slate of 7 candidates (which I assume is a legal requirement otherwise they wouldn’t do something so detrimental to their chances of reaching max. no. of quotas, i.e. through scattering of votes/leakage)?
MadHouse
You’re probably right, but that’s a difficult sell in the year 2025. Especially with public services globally still feeling the strain / catching up with waiting lists post-Covid, the simplistic view is that more migrants will make that worse.
Which is at least a partially correct view, as governments don’t seem very able to / good at building infrastructure/service provision at a corresponding rate to population growth, there seems a big lag if it happens at all.
Braddon
Is it an absolute given that Labor will get to a 2nd seat ahead of a 1st seat for Greens or – longer shot – SFF?
Or, for that matter, that Libs will get to a 4th seat ahead of Greens/SFF 1st seat? I know they have 4 full quotas but idk what leakage Rockliff’s surplus has down ticket.
Clark
Who are Kristie Johnston’s and Elise Archer’s surplus votes favouring most, thus far?
Franklin
If Peter George’s surplus goes predominantly to anti-stadium/salmon candidates as you’d expect, they are likely to be wasted as it won’t be enough to do anything for a 2nd Green (1.10 quotas) or other Indys.
Surely there’s some chance that Libs overhaul Lab for a 3rd seat before Lab’s 2nd? Not a chance you’d bet your money on, but not that small a chance either?
Labor with 1.82 quotas have Meg Brown and Jess Munday on 0.35 and 0.24 quotas respectively.
Lib with 2.73 quotas have Nic Street and Dean Young with 0.42 and 0.24 quotas respectively (assumes Jacquie Petrusma on 0.61 remains in front and takes the 2nd Lib seat).
More of the other Lib candidates’ prefs will be needed to get the first 2 Libs up to quota than the Lab prefs needed to get their no. 1 candidate up to quota. This is one clear reason (there may be others I’m not clear about) why Lab are rightly regarded as ‘ahead’ in the fight for the 7th seat.
Just noticed that Nats and SFF don’t put up 7 candidates in a seat? So is it not a legal requirement for the other parties?
Why would they do it if it isn’t? Surely any possible slight loss of overall party quota from a down-ticket candidate is compensated by greater efficiency (therefore more reaching the final 7) among the remainder?
Lyons
I can’t contort this to get to anything but SFF taking the 7th seat.
Bass
A very different kettle of fish! Multiple possibilities and surely the last one that will be known across Tassie.
I just can’t see the winner being Lib though. If reports re Bridget Archer’s surplus going off ticket are accurate, that settles it even further – leaving it between a mere 4 others!
Without more intel, SFF appear slightly favoured. Don’t know anything about George Razay.
George Razay is left wing independent. He would be a very faint chance but SFF is about 450 votes ahead at the moment
Nadia. Thanks so much for asking. Mischief made it to his 20th birthday but sadly left us a few weeks later. But he was living his best life up until his very last day, when things went bad distressingly quickly.
My partner and I are still a bit distraught, but do have the benefit of being able to travel together again, which we are in the midst of doing as I write this.
Nice to see Kevin has posted some updates, need him to travel to Bass!
Lots of leaky counts by sounds of things
KB posted a historical article to highlight some of the internal issues of Tas Labor. Here’s another one showing that the high quality MPs Tas Labor do attract decide the internal culture is too toxic. Maybe another another decade?
https://tasmaniantimes.com/2021/08/bastian-seidel-resigns-from-alp/
BTSays
There is effective optional preferential voting in tassie, where voters only have to number up to 7. By having 7 candidates in a tkt, the majority of parties can say just vote for all our candidates and stop without risking vote becoming informal.
Also if a member resigns partway through their term, then the way hare-Clark selects replacement is through a recount of votes that were still there at the point they got elected, which effectively means the next person on the tkt normally gets elected, so the major parties want spares on the tkt in case that happens. Last election a liberal in bass resigned hours after getting elected.
Sad to hear that Meher, and imagine that has been quite a loss. That is an amazing age for a pusscat. He lived during 7 Prime Ministerships. Must be almost a record! Take care.
M.I.
Yes sounds like a long term toxic culture within the state based organisation and I’m not sue how it gets cleaned out. I suppose a Federal intervention may be on the cards.
I’ve also read KB’s other link about fixed 4 year terms in Tassie.
I have to agree with him too. There is not much point legislating the Parliament to have fixed 4 yr terms if they can’t get along for even 4 months.
Although KB and most don’t agree, I think the better way to go would be to divide Tassie up into 35 electoral districts and run an election (FPV or OPV) similar to the mainland states. Hare-Clark, although probably more representative of the public will, seems to me to be a recipe for ongoing conflict.
Benefits of districts rather than H-C {from my POV}:
1. More likely to get a clear outcome each election
2. Forces the MLA (MP) to be more accountable to their electorate
3. Triggers a by-election if the MLA chooses to leave parliament, as opposed to just appointing the next person on the ticket. This makes members think twice about forcing by-elections.
I kind of get why 35 single member seats isn’t a great idea, 16,000 people per seat. I live in what used to be a satellite suburb of Hobart, but its now a fully blown town/city of 20k people. We’d end up with MPs so focused on the hyper local they wouldn’t be seeing the bigger Tasmanian issues. My internal chats have been coming up with all sorts of ideas, but this is the nature of a state that requires a basic level of governance but with a small level of population.
Should we implement Iceland’s Althing. “The unicameral parliament has 63 members, and is elected every four years based on party-list proportional representation.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Althing#Results_of_2024_general_election
@nadi88 – ACT has a very similar system. 5×5 Hare Clarke and has seen much more stability than Tasmania, or indeed most of the jurisdictions that do single member electorates.
Single member electorates can cause chaos and dysfunction too.
By elections can throw a stable government into turmoil.
I’d argue Hare Clarke strikes the right balance in having safe seats. The senate system is a mess. You get factional hacks occupying the #1 spot on the ticket and less talent makes its way into the party. In single member systems, you can get popular and well respected MPs like Frydenburg losing their seat if their party is a weight around their neck.
Hare Clarke is this magical middle ground. High quality candidates for the major parties will win a seat, even if popular independents run in their electorate. But voters can jetison dead weight branch stackers.
So, Hare Clarke can do well at ensuring each party has it’s best possible candidates elected.
And, high quality candidates tend to be able to manage minority and coalition governments just fine.
That said, the quality of the candidates in Tasmania is nto representative of Hare Clarke working well. I have no idea how to fix Tassie.
Fair enough I suppose.
A.C.T. it looks like the politicians are a bit more collaborative, probably because they’ve got the Feds looking right over their shoulders.
As per Iceland’s Althing elected via the d’hondt system & adding in 9 levelling seats…..
I don’t like the look of that one bit.
I’m probably more geared toward getting an electoral result where there is “more likely” to be a majority as opposed to ongoing division. Anyway Tasmanian’s will sort it all out in due course.
Nadia: “Sad to hear that Meher, and imagine that has been quite a loss. That is an amazing age for a pusscat. He lived during 7 Prime Ministerships. Must be almost a record! Take care.”
——————————————————————————-
Thanks so much. Yes, he was born in about May 2005, and lived for more than a month after the 2025 election, so seven Prime Ministers and, by my count, nine LOTOs. While a bit of a tearaway when young (which is how he earned his name), he was the sweetest of fellows in his more mature years. We’re not ready for another cat just yet: we’re going to focus on travel for a little while.
Nadia,
ACT just has some grown-ups in the room.
Getting a majority is next to impossible so elected reps just see negotiation and compromise as par for the course. It’s not that hard to do.
The feds aren’t looking over their shoulders. They, for the most part, couldn’t care less.
What we have in Tasmania is a premier and governing party not willing to compromise and then throwing their toys out of the pram when people push back on their bullshit.
We’re getting into some pretty dangerous ground with what Rocky is saying, undemocratic. All of the postal votes haven’t even come in yet.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-24/tas-liberals-call-on-dean-winter-and-labor-to-concede-election/105566214
I agree. As it stands, mathematically the Greens & Labor & 3 of the indies can tip Rockliff out.
SFF & the Libs “does not = 18 votes.”
Once the job is done things will settle down.
If the Greens want to pull the plug on Labor in say 12-18 months (similar to Christine Milne in Jan.2013), then it will be on their head.
I can’t imagine Tasmanian’s want a further Lower House election next year, so it would be a strange move of the greens.
If this was to occur, you’d probably see Tasmanian’s marching into the ballot box with pitchforks.
Anyway, I’m keeping an eye on KB’s blog. If he gets a whisper of a change in gov’t, he’ll be all over it.