Tasmanian election live

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End of night

I’ve been wrong before about Hare-Clark, but my take on the result is that the Liberals are looking 14 or 15 seats, meaning they have either broken even or gained one; Labor will win 10 or 11, meaning ditto; the Greens have broken even with five; the three independents elected in 2024 will be joined by a fourth; Shooters Fishers and Farmers should win their first ever seat and are a chance of a second; and the balance is accounted for by the evaporation of the Jacqui Lambie Network, none of whose three members have prospered either as independents or Nationals. Four of the five divisions seem to me to have straightforward results, the exception being Bass, though others might also cast doubt over Lyons.

The Liberals gained about 4% everywhere except Franklin, where independent Peter George’s 17.6% drained all comers. This reflected an 8% to 10% Jacqui Lambie Network vote from 2024 being up for grabs in the three regional divisions, only around 2% of which went to the Nationals in Bass and Braddon, increasing to a bit over 4% in Lyons. Conversely, the JLN vacuum didn’t prevent Labor dropping by a few points across the board, though not seemingly at a cost of any seats.

Eric Abetz won the evening’s creative electoral accounting prize for trying to make something out of the Greens’ 6.4% drop in Franklin, but this was clearly down to support for Peter George from voters who would happily have stayed green in his absence. Elsewhere the Greens were up by between 0.4% in Clark and 4.3% in Bass, with some help from a no-show from Animal Justice who polled 1.5% statewide last year. Only half of an increase in the aggregate independent vote from 9.6% to 15.3% was down to George: Craig Garland in Braddon and Kristie Johnston in Clark doubled their vote share, and the competition from George didn’t prevent David O’Byrne from gaining handily in Franklin.

To deal with the five divisions in turn:

Bass. The Liberals clearly have enough for three seats (3.31 quotas), Labor for two (2.21 quotas) and the Greens for one (1.32 quotas), but the seventh seat is unclear. The Greens face the problem that their incumbent, Cecily Rosol, should soak up most of the party’s lower-order preferences without getting elected until near the end of the count, meaning their other candidates will fall by the wayside. Two Liberals (Bridget Archer and Michael Ferguson) and one Labor (Janie Finlay) will be elected early in the count, with Rosol winning only when the last other Green is excluded. Incumbent Rob Fairs will then win a a third seat for the Liberals, and either Jess Greene or Geoff Lyons (both newcomers, though the latter a former federal member) a second for Labor. The last seat will come down a fourth Liberal (impossible to pick out of incumbent Simon Wood and newcomers Julie Sladden and Chris Gatenby), a third Labor (whichever out of Greene or Lyons didn’t win the second) and Michal Frydrch of Shooters Fishers and Farmers. The starting point for this game of musical chairs is 0.37 quotas for Shooters, a 0.31 surplus over their third quota for the Liberals, and a 0.21 surplus over the second quota for Labor. Labor will presumably get a fair chunk of the Greens’ surplus, and the 18.3% vote for the distinctly moderate Archer means a higher-than-usual share of the Liberals’ own vote is likely to leak out of the ticket, some of it to Labor (and presumably not much to Shooters).

Braddon. The Liberals are only a fraction short of four quotas, meaning incumbents Jeremy Rockliff, Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch are to be joined by a fourth in former federal member Gavin Pearce. Labor is only just shy of two, ensuring re-election for Anita Dow and Shane Broad. Independent Craig Garland doubled the vote that got him narrowly got him elected last time, and had more reason to be cheerful than his ABC TV interview suggested. The Greens, with 0.58 quotas, are no threat to him, and the Nationals managed only 1.6%, ending the short parliamentary career of Miriam Beswick, who ran with the party after winning a seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network in 2024.

Clark. A straightforward status quo result in terms of party seat share: the Liberals retain two, with Simon Behrakis re-elected and newcomer Marcus Vermey to unseat Madeleine Ogilvie; Josh Willie and Ella Haddad are re-elected for Labor; Vica Bayley and Helen Burnet are re-elected for the Greens; and independent Kristie Johnston is handsomely re-elected with 15.2%, after dipping from 11.0% to 7.7% in 2024.

Franklin. Peter George’s win looks like coming at the expense of the Liberals, with Eric Abetz and Jacqui Petrusma re-elected but Nic Street missing out. The party has a seemingly solid 2.70 quotas, but stands to receive next to no preferences. Despite the 6.4% gouge taken out of their vote by George, the Greens have 1.11 quotas, ensuring re-election for party leader Rosalie Woodruff, and their preferences together with George’s should ensure that Labor’s 1.82 quotas converts to re-election for Dean Winter and Meg Brown, and that 0.88 is enough to re-elect former Labor leader and now independent incumbent David O’Byrne.

Lyons. It is clear the Liberals will win three seats, re-electing incumbents Jane Howlett, Guy Barnett and Mark Shelton; that Labor will win two, with Jen Butler re-elected and former federal member Brian Mitchell unseating Casey Farrell, who recently filled Rebecca White’s vacancy; and that Tabatha Badger will retain her seat for the Greens. I don’t see the last seat going to anyone other than Carlo Di Falco of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, though others are more circumspect. He has 0.58 quotas and will not suffer leakage, being the only candidate on the ticket. His competition are the Nationals on 0.34 quotas, which means former Liberal member John Tucker; and a fourth Liberal, Stephanie Cameron, given that party’s 0.32 surplus over their third quota. Postals and the New Norfolk pre-poll booth have the potential to change the equation a bit, but past experience suggests not much. So presumably either Tucker or Cameron goes out and their preferences decide the last seat between Di Carlo and the other. I tend to think nearly as many Nationals preferences would go to the Shooters as the Liberals, but if the Liberals go out, maybe there’s some hope for Tucker.

Election night

10.18pm. If anyone’s finding my live results of value, please note that the considerable effort has thus far gone unremunerated, a situation any one of you can correct using the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and post.

9.45pm. Bird of Paradox in comments reiterates a point I made during my podcast appearance with Ben Raue that has since slipped my mind, which is that a fair chunk of the 41.4% Liberal vote comes from an 18.3% vote for Bridget Archer, much of which might be from people otherwise not favourably disposed towards the party. My previous assessment had Bass at three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens and the last seat a race between a fourth Liberal and a second Green – I’d suggest leakage from Archer would shorten the odds on the latter.

9.25pm. Struggling Labor election night panellists have been invoking the potential for late-reporting pre-poll booths to turn things around, as their Coalition equivalents did on the night of the federal election. However, the first three pre-polls are not encouraging on this count. Two are in from Bass: George Town, where the Liberals are up 7.4%, and Scottsdale, where they are up 5.2%, which compares with 3.8% on election day results; and Burnie in Braddon, where they are up 3.4% compared with 4.2%.

8.08pm. So assuming I’m right about all that — and minds better attuned to mine that Hare-Clark will have been focusing their full attention on this while I was hunting bugs — I’ve got Liberal matching their 14 from the previous parliament and hoping for as many as 16. A status quo of 10 looks like the best Labor can hope for, and they may be down to nine. The Greens look like holding their five seats with possibilities of one or two gains through a second seat in Bass or a first in Braddon. The three independents are re-elected and will be joined by Peter George and possibly one of his running mates, plus Shooters look like having a seat. None of the JLN class are making a mark, whether as independents or Nationals.

7.59pm. Shooters are doing very well in Lyons, suggesting Carlo Di Falco could be joining three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. Brian Mitchell looks like being a third recently departed federal member to win a state seat, taking one of Labor’s two off incumbent Casey Farrell with Jen Butler re-elected. The three Liberal incumbents are untroubled.

7.56pm. Peter George doing well enough in Franklin to potentially elect a running mate off his coat-tails, which would come at the expense of a third Liberal if it happened – the rest looks like Labor two, Greens one plus David O’Byrne. Labor newcomer Jess Munday is polling disappointingly, suggesting Labor’s seats to remain with the incumbents. Eric Abetz and Jacqui Petrusma will be elected, with Nic Street the loser if George gets that second seat.

7.52pm. A big shift in Clark from Labor to Kirstie Johnston, but it still looks like a status quo of two Labor, two Liberal, two Greens and Johnston, with Elise Archer failing to register. Madeleine Ogilvie looks like losing one of the two Liberal seats to newcomer Marcus Vermey, the strongest on the Liberal ticket.

7.50pm. A big result in Braddon suggests this is a good night for the Liberals, suggesting four seats with former federal member Gavin Pearce taking the second without unseating any of the incumbents, namely clear leader Jeremy Rockliff followed by Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch. Labor are down as much as the Liberals are up, such that they might even be reduced to Anita Dow — Shane Broad, if he gets up at all, will first have to overcome Vanessa Bleyer of the Greens. Craig Garland has a quota in his own right, making the result four Liberal, one Labor, one Greens and Craig Garland, with the last seat either a second Liberal or first Green.

7.46pm. In Bass we’ve got big movement from Labor to the Greens, suggesting polls showing the Greens a shot at a second seat might have been on the money. Shooters are polling well no doubt because of an imbalance of rural booths in the current numbers. The Liberals are up, so my initial impression here is Liberal three, Labor two and Greens one, with the last seat a battle between a fourth Liberal and a second Green. Janie Finlay assuredly gets Labor’s first seat with Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons fighting for the second; huge result for Bridget Archer, to be followed by Michael Ferguson and Rob Fairs, with Simon Wood doing no better than lower-order newcomers in the race for a possible fourth seat; anyone’s guess who a second Green might be. Rebekah Pentland is failing to register as an independent.

7.40pm. I think I might have fixed the problem now, so will finally have some analysis to offer shortly.

7.15pm. I believe there is a problem with my projections, which are at present too favourable for the Liberals, but the system should at least be of use for observing results and swings at booth level.

6.50pm. So anyway, we’ve got one small rural booth in for each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons, and a mobile result from Clark from which my swing figure won’t tell you anything useful. But the first three all have Liberal well up and Labor well done. Early days though obviously, with about 400 votes in all.

6.48pm. Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he had swing figures from the Irishtown booth. The only and only place you can find such a thing is through the link above.

6.44pm. A little later than I’d have figured, there are some numbers and my system seems to be processing them okay.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Tasmanian state election count. Polls are now closed and we should be getting the first results from small rural booths fairly shortly. Through the link above you will find live updated results throughout the night and beyond, inclusive of an effort to project party vote shares in each of the five divisions through booth-matched swings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe