Roy Morgan has its (and anybody’s) second federal poll since the election, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from the first such poll three weeks ago at 58-42. The primary votes are Labor 37.5% (up half), Coalition 31% (steady), Greens 12% (up half) and One Nation 6%. The poll was conducted June 2 to 22 from a sample of 3957.
Also of note was the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of preference flow data from the election, including aggregated measures of how each minor party’s preferences split between Labor and the Coalition. A large component of the pollsters’ failure to credit the 55.2% two-party vote share Labor ended up recording lay in an expectation, fuelled by recent state elections, that preference flows to Labor would not match those of 2022. In aggregate, Labor’s share of all minor party and independent preferences ended up being all but identical to 2022, vindicating the determination of RedBridge Group (together with late newcomer DemosAU) in their persistence with 2022 election flows in determining their two-party preferred headlines.
However, the preference flow by party data shows that beneath the surface stability was a continuation of an apparent polarisation in minor party preferences, reflected in record highs for both the Greens flow to Labor and One Nation flow to the Coalition. Pollsters were thus vindicated in revising upwards the flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition – but none correctly apprehended that Greens preferences would continue to trend the other way, and at least one did the opposite.
It would seem Green voters do not have the same view as Green politicians. Considering Labor has made it clear they are fed up with Green politicians the result is surprising.
I noticed that the few minor left wing parties like Animal Justice, Socialiat Alliance, etc did not appear on the ballot laat election, compared to the usual suspects of right wing nutters like Fred Nile. I wonder if that had any impact? Speaking from experience the mood with friends was very much just lets keep Dutton out, probably that had an even bigger impact.
I for one am glad Ali France finally ousted him after the horrible thimgs he said about her last election.
Going to be the sporting story of the year
https://www.sportbible.com/athletics/gout-gout-record-breaking-200m-sprint-usain-bolt-114620-20250624
Bean says:
….
Speaking from experience the mood with friends was very much just lets keep Dutton out, probably that had an even bigger impact.
…
Except it is a continuance of a long term trend. Not a one off.
Tom Baker will save us.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Armageddon_Factor
I wonder how much of that PHON preference flow to the Coalition was a result of the revised preference deal between the 2 parties? I’d say it explains a lot of the new result. It would also seem to confirm the Rightward drift under the failed leadership of Peter Dutton who believed in the Mini Me Trump concept of global Right Wing politics.
Except the Australian electorate had other ideas. 🙂
What Morgan poll shows is how hard it is for the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units, continuing with same policies and propaganda what they took to the 2022 and 2025 federal elections .
It is not going to get the non lib/nats voters to switch to the federal lib/nats
Dr Doolittle,
Could you elaborate on this further:
Israel was careful not in limiting the scale of civilian casualties, but rather in not killing Russian scientists who were at the Bushehr nuclear plant.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-got-smashed-ley-orders-existential-review-of-her-own-party-20250624-p5m9yf.html
Is this Ley’s way of saying the first post election review won’t actually address these issues?
Great stats in England’s win over India – India first test team to lose a test match after scoring 5 test centuries. Previous record was Australia with 4 when Sir Don scored his first test century.
Only 11 teams have won tests with their opponents scoring 770 runs or more across two innings – England has done it 4 times in last 3 years
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/eng-vs-ind-1st-test-stats-india-first-team-to-lose-a-test-match-despite-five-centurions-1491745
‘Fess,
I’m waiting to see if the Liberals think they will be able to just put lipstick on the pig and get away with it? If you listen to the 7AM podcast video I put up last night with Jason Koutsoukis about Alex Antic then you can see that Ley is going to have trouble wrangling the Reactionary Ultra Conservatives in her party. And in the Coalition, more generally.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Tehran will restore its nuclear program, Iranian atomic chief vows: https://www.timesofisrael.com/tehran-will-restore-its-nuclear-program-iranian-atomic-chief-vows/
Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites?Date=20250624&Profile=CNN
Netanyahu declares historic win, says Israel removed Iran’s nuclear threat in 12-day war: https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/netanyahu-declares-historic-win-commits-campaign-against-iran-axis-hamas-2025-06-24/
Oil prices tumble after Israel agrees to Iran ceasefire: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crk6elpx4gpo
Europeans Reject Following Trump if He Urges Ukraine to Cede Territory or Lift Sanctions: https://kyivinsider.com/europeans-reject-following-trump-if-he-urges-ukraine-to-cede-territory-or-lift-sanctions/
Pakistan developing a nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile, US concerned: https://theprint.in/world/pakistan-developing-a-nuclear-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-us-concerned-says-report/2669168/
AOC Responds To Trump After He Calls Her ‘Stupid’: ‘Only Took You 5 Months To Break Almost Every Promise’: https://www.latintimes.com/aoc-responds-trump-after-he-calls-her-stupid-only-took-you-5-months-break-almost-every-585540
Donald Trump Issues Warning to AOC After Impeachment Push: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-issues-warning-aoc-after-impeachment-push-2090006
FBI Abandons Miller’s Migrant Round-Up in Humiliating Blow: https://www.thedailybeast.com/fbi-abandons-stephen-millers-migrant-round-up-in-humiliating-blow/
Trump administration scrambles to rehire key federal workers after DOGE firings: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/doge-fired-workers-rehired
US CDC report shows no link between thimerosal-containing vaccines and autism: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-cdc-report-shows-no-evidence-linking-thimerosal-containing-vaccines-autism-2025-06-24/
CNN also reporting that the nuclear strikes were not destroyed.
Official response from the Whitehouse:
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN in a statement: “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community. The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program. Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”
I’m guessing that Morgan captured the sentiment around the Coalition split. That seems to be the only big item that happened locally which might have filtered into the minds of Australians.
Donny has been throwing his toys out of the cot:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israel-iran-ceasefire-live-updates-ceasefire-appears-to-hold-after-donald-trump-s-outburst-at-both-sides-20250624-p5m9y6.html
C@tmomma @ #11 Wednesday, June 25th, 2025 – 6:56 am
I’ve a feeling they will never accept a woman leader. I still give kudos to Ley for staring down Littleproud and now she’s appearing at the NPC, something Dutton never did.
Why would anyone trust anything that comes out of Leavitt’s mouth?
It’s not just one intelligence source, Karoline:
US strikes on Iran ‘did not destroy nuclear sites’: reports
By Chris Paine
Contrary to Netanyahu’s earlier statement, reports from CNN and The New York Times claim Donald Trump’s bunker buster blitz on Sunday did not destroy Iran’s three key nuclear sites, citing a US intelligence assessment.
According to four of CNN’s sources, an analysis of damage to sites at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz revealed that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed – and that centrifuges were largely “intact”.
Confessions @ #17 Wednesday, June 25th, 2025 – 7:06 am
Komical Karoline
Mostly Interested says:
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 at 6:59 am
I’m guessing that Morgan captured the sentiment around the Coalition split. That seems to be the only big item that happened locally which might have filtered into the minds of Australians.
—————————————————-
That and the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units, are more concern in a particular one country in the middle-east than helping everyday Australians could be another factor
#weatheronPB
Change stirs through the trees.
It lifts my long uncombed hair,
affectionately.
And a timid sky,
slowly glows ever brighter,
undressing the world.
An update on last night’s Russian terrorist strike upon Ukrainian civilians:
“‘Dead and wounded everywhere’ — Russian attack on Dnipro kills at least 17, injures almost 280”
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-dnipro-with-ballistic-missiles-hits-civilian-train06-2025/
This has been happening every day for over three years. Enough is enough surely.
“More empty threats from Washington, more deadly bombs from Russia”
https://kyivindependent.com/more-empty-threats-from-washington-more-deadly-bombs-from-russia/
Whoever decries American military strength needs to sincerely address the question: who should step up and militarily force Russia to desist from its genocide of Ukrainians? If they answer, “No-one”, do they propose instead mere wringing of hands and averting of eyes? Or is there another way? Sanctions would help – but they need to be serious, and enforced by China and India as strongly as by everyone else.
Komical Karoline alright. No wonder Trump is spitting chips and swearing his head off at reporters!
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html
As a Greens voter I’m not surprised more of us held our nose and preferenced Labor than usual given the LNP was promising to effectively stop the renewables roll out, plus all their other faults
Not exactly an attractive prospect for people who believe in climate change and want a faster transition rather than a slower one
It was the perfect storm in some ways
Bean makes an interesting point re the missing minor left parties, well at least left leaning ones in some ways, e.g. Animal Justice, Legalise Cannabis etc. I’m looking forward to some analysis around the number who ran and the potential impact on the result
Not that Labor wouldn’t have still won in a landslide
My advice to Labor folk, don’t take the additional preferences for granted although if the government works with the Greens it could lock them in
newy boy,
EU sanctions against Russia are ratcheting up. It’s mainly Viktor Orban and Hungary standing in the way. Though Ursula Von Der Layen has threatened sanctioning Hungary if they keep trying it on. 🙂
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 at 6:14 am
Tom Baker will save us.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Armageddon_Factor
”
MI
THE ABOVE IS FICTION BUT THE BELOW IS REAL. Some US military personnel are lusting for armageddon as we speak wrt Israel -iro-us war.
Praying for Armageddon, Literally
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/6/24/2329799/-Praying-for-Armageddon-Literally?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“U.S. Military Leadership Craves Armageddon
However, almost immediately after word of these American strikes became public Saturday evening, June 21, 2025, our foundation became inundated with military members who were caught in the same bloodlust by their chains of command eagerly watching the cataclysmic events unfolding. Why were these military superiors gleefully observing so fervently? For the same reason they rejoiced at the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war. It is because such sudden warfare, which could explode according to the experts even into World War III, substantiates and adds credibility to the lubrication of the exigent return of their wretched version of AR-15 carrying “Weaponized Jesus” and the infamous Battle of Armageddon. What, you don’t think that the alcoholic, womanizing, Christian nationalist, Crusader-tattooed, proselytizing Jesus freak little Petey Hegseth isn’t TOTALLY getting off on all of this for the very same reason?!”
Hard Being Green,
The welcome mat is always out for The Greens from Labor, IF they want to be constructive.
Nah. You’re as surprised and as disappointed in the election result as any other Greens partisan who comments here. Through the campaign you were so convinced that the election would produce a record number of Greens MPs that you even coined a phrase for it. So please don’t try to pretend that now you’re not surprised at all at the final result.
Morning all. No surprise that the air strikes did not destroy Iranian installations. Its really hard to destroy underground structures. We should wait a year or two before judging the impact of the strikes. I expect them to make things worse.
Cat
I agree with you on Alex Antic. He has sidelined anyone in the SA Liberals who was not a religious zealot. I don’t like him but I do thank him for making the SA Liberals unelectable.
100% I was disappointed with the result, I’m not saying I wasn’t. Although it’s not all doom and gloom. The Greens get the balance of power in the Senate in their own right plus the vote held up overall despite losing seats in the house of representatives
Like most I didn’t expect the LNP vote to collapse as dramatically as it did but as I stated, I’m not surprised Labor got more Greens preferences than usual
The Greens will always be constructive provided the policies put forward don’t go against their principles. I’m confident they’ll find the right balance this term i.e. not a rubber stamp but plenty will pass
Trump warned Iran of incoming, in turn Iran gave Trump the heads up of a retaliatory strike.
There’s a Mel Brooks movie in Trumps presidency.
Monday’s NEM record for highest wind generation didn’t last long:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.wind.energy.day.high?datetime=2025-06-24T00_00_00&offset=10_00&focus=1750687200000
Victoria was the main contributor:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.vic1.wind.energy.day.high?datetime=2025-06-24T00_00_00&offset=10_00&focus=1750687200000
NSW also broke their record:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.nsw1.wind.power.interval.high?datetime=2025-06-25T02_35_00&offset=10_00&focus=1750782900000
https://apple.news/AK6hyBCu3S-evwmXohRk3zg, if you can rent Venice, … you can pay more tax
Yes, the podcast on Alex Antic was a bottler. Thanks, C@t.
It should be compulsory listening for every Lib party member. Would be quite chilling for poor Susssan. She’s got a job ahead of her.
Stoogey Lurker
Thanks for the renewable energy updates. I haven’t commented on them much but I enjoy reading them. They put to rest the lies that no progress is being made.
I worked on engineering aspects of several SA wind farms in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Its great to see SA is now within sight of 100% renewable power. If NSW would just hurry up and finish that damned interconnector…
Stoogey Lurker @ #33 Wednesday, June 25th, 2025 – 7:48 am
Stoogey Lurker it was absolutely howling here yesterday all day (northern nsw)
My weather station recorded a peak gust of 31 knots though I think it might need a clean, it’s been running continuously without maintenance for six years now.
Walker’s advice to the LC Inquiry into the Dural caravan incident is that the five ministerial staff who refused to attend could be arrested. Accordingly, they will front up.
Whether they’ll answer the questions put to them is another story – News Radio.
Shellbellsays:
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 at 6:35 am
Great stats in England’s win over India – India first test team to lose a test match after scoring 5 test centuries. Previous record was Australia with 4 when Sir Don scored his first test century.
Only 11 teams have won tests with their opponents scoring 770 runs or more across two innings – England has done it 4 times in last 3 years
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/eng-vs-ind-1st-test-stats-india-first-team-to-lose-a-test-match-despite-five-centurions-1491745
______________________________________
India’s bottom 4 scored a total of 8 runs off the bat across 2 innings. England’s bottom 4 made 72 off the bat in 1 visit to the crease.
The Bazball approach to the game does make winning the seemingly impossible, possible. It also produces some humorous failures…
Socrates @ #30 Wednesday, June 25th, 2025 – 7:42 am
That 68-33 SA poll the other day said it all.
Alex Antic thinks he can convince the electorate from the Sky After Dark pulpit. Yeah nah. The same thing happened to Peter Dutton. He thought that appearing for soft interviews on SAD and 2GB and then farming out the content to the rest of the media would persuade them to his pov. It turns out that young people especially weren’t even bothering with it and getting their news from their own trusted sources instead. So the Coalition ended up falling in a heap at the election. Not to mention that Dutton melted and flubbed it under real scrutiny being applied to him at last during the election campaign.
Luigi Smith @ #35 Wednesday, June 25th, 2025 – 7:58 am
Thanks, Luigi. I honestly think that Ley has her work cut out for her bringing Women and Moderates who are voting for the Teals now back inside the Liberal tent when you have the likes of Antic waiting for them there with his retrograde ideas.
William
Thanks for the leading article and discussion of the preference flows at the Federal election and their role in Labor’s 55/45 2pp. On this:
“ In aggregate, Labor’s share of all minor party and independent preferences ended up being all but identical to 2022, vindicating the determination of RedBridge Group (together with late newcomer DemosAU) in their persistence with 2022 election flows in determining their two-party preferred headlines.”
I think your approach in bludgertrack to base preference flows on the previous election is proven vindicated as well.
Albanese will lose no skin for not having a meeting with Trump. What has Rudd’s advice been – play hard to get, for instance?
The Greens do not have the Senate balance of power in their own right. Stop spreading this falsehood.
https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Senators/Senate_composition
Yep. Mission accomplished vibes……..
——-
CNN: We have breaking news into CNN. Three sources tell CNN that according to an early U.S. Intelligence assessment, the U.S. Military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back a few months
I listened to the Marles/Spears interview in full. Spears asked 7 different ways do you think Iran had nuclear weapons, Marles said in 7 different ways no one wants Iran to have nuclear weapons.
That Marles hasnt been able to get rid of his stutter at the start of his 6th answer as he thinks of a different way to say the same thing to the same questions is a little unfortunate, but it does not take away from the answer itself. No one wants Iran to have nuclear weapons.
BW, yes Rex is trolling. But I do wonder if Rex wakes up in the dead of night alone and afraid, wondering how he found himself as the propaganda mouthpiece for the Russians, how he found himself listening to the slow drip drip of poison in his ear by his handler, which is no more than an algorithmic AI that he himself crafted by his own internet searches, and how he ended up betraying the 1950s Menzies world he inhabits.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/once-the-west-s-great-hero-zelensky-is-now-fighting-to-keep-a-divided-world-on-his-side-20250624-p5m9qc.html
It’s surprising that Greece, for instance, trusts Putin more than Zelensky. I’m sure I read somewhere that the Athenians established a form of democracy in the 5th century BC. Perhaps they’re unaware of their history.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 at 7:06 am
It’s not just one intelligence source, Karoline:
US strikes on Iran ‘did not destroy nuclear sites’: reports
By Chris Paine
Contrary to Netanyahu’s earlier statement, reports from CNN and The New York Times claim Donald Trump’s bunker buster blitz on Sunday did not destroy Iran’s three key nuclear sites, citing a US intelligence assessment.
According to four of CNN’s sources, an analysis of damage to sites at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz revealed that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed – and that centrifuges were largely “intact”.
”
There are 5 holes at a distance (probably about 2-5 km) from the ‘white thing’ entrance. Did any smoke came out of the holes?
If the nuclear infrastructure is not destroyed as per initial assessment, then what did so many bunker busting bombs achieved and what is the purpose of all this US bombing? How can some people on this site justify US bombing now?
What is justification and moral purpose of Israel 22 day war?
They have destroyed many residential buildings in Tehran. They declared that they can kill Khamenei. More than 500 innocent civilians are killed.
Re Confessions @6:31.
” So, let’s be honest and up front about last month’s election. We didn’t just lose. We got smashed. We respect the election outcome with humility. We accept it with contrition. And we must learn from it with conviction,”
will say.”
Respect the outcome? That would be an all time first for the Liberals in regard to an election they didn’t win. They usually work with media allies to double down on what they’ve been doing, to act as spoilers and blockers and to rely on culture wars plus “events”, scandals and stuff-ups, real and imagined, to get back into the game.
We shall see.
Mavis
I’m not surprised about Greece. These days they are known for tax evasion (world champs) and money launder Russian money through Greek and Cypriot banks.
Greek shipping companies are also some of the biggest suppliers of tankers to Russia’s sanction busting grey fleet.