Roy Morgan has its (and anybody’s) second federal poll since the election, showing Labor’s two-party lead unchanged from the first such poll three weeks ago at 58-42. The primary votes are Labor 37.5% (up half), Coalition 31% (steady), Greens 12% (up half) and One Nation 6%. The poll was conducted June 2 to 22 from a sample of 3957.
Also of note was the Australian Electoral Commission’s publication of preference flow data from the election, including aggregated measures of how each minor party’s preferences split between Labor and the Coalition. A large component of the pollsters’ failure to credit the 55.2% two-party vote share Labor ended up recording lay in an expectation, fuelled by recent state elections, that preference flows to Labor would not match those of 2022. In aggregate, Labor’s share of all minor party and independent preferences ended up being all but identical to 2022, vindicating the determination of RedBridge Group (together with late newcomer DemosAU) in their persistence with 2022 election flows in determining their two-party preferred headlines.
However, the preference flow by party data shows that beneath the surface stability was a continuation of an apparent polarisation in minor party preferences, reflected in record highs for both the Greens flow to Labor and One Nation flow to the Coalition. Pollsters were thus vindicated in revising upwards the flow of One Nation preferences to the Coalition – but none correctly apprehended that Greens preferences would continue to trend the other way, and at least one did the opposite.
I think Ven has it right with the Australian media interest in a Trump – Albo meeting. Trump gets media support in USA because he provides dramatic television at others’ expense. Australian media would cheerfully screen more of the same. RW Murdoch media even more so.
I’m not so sure how much Albo gains from a meeting either. Most head of state meetings follow lead up negotiations between diplomatic staff with most of the “announce-ables” agreed in advance. Its a sure thing.
Trump doesn’t work that way. Nobody seems able to predict his moods or outcomes in advance. If Albo concedes a lot to get a deal he will be blamed by the RW media for being weak. If there is no deal he will get the opposite criticism.
So a Trump meeting looks high risk for Albo. Yet with no meeting presumably US tariffs are imposed as threatened. So no meeting is high risk for Australia’s economy.
Pi – Hack 90, Omar 95, paulA nowhere to be seen
you’d think from the front he puts up that he might have some runs on the board or something
Facepalm!
But the way things are going I can totally see either of them.
“So a Trump meeting looks high risk for Albo. Yet with no meeting presumably US tariffs are imposed as threatened. So no meeting is high risk for Australia’s economy.”
Is there any country that has got a tariff lower than we are currently on though?
Post up on the Tasmanian YouGov poll (will do the Morgan poll overnight):
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/tasmanian-election-yougov-poll-and-election-guide/
Ms Sotomayor is only 71. In the USA no senior officials seem to retire before their eighties. Hopefully she can hang on until there’s a Democrat in the White House.
Perhaps Albo’s time would be better spent securing shoring up relations with Canada, Japan, South Korea and possibly other major Pacific nations like Indonesia and Vietnam than bothering with the bloated Oompa-Loompa?
Steve777 @ #1504 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 8:36 pm
She has Type 1 diabetes though, so that’s a risk for her not lasting until at least January 2029 when hopefully the nightmare will be over.
”
Another thing the media weirdly obsesses over is electricity prices (for reasons which Ven alluded to above), given that it’s only “3 percent of the ABS estimate of average household expenditure.”
https://reneweconomy.com.au/what-really-matters-energy-costs-electrification-efficiency-or-climate-change/
”
SL
Electricity maybe 3% of average household expenditure. I think it could be upto 10% in poorer households. With 30-35% rental expenditure, 2 items will cost upto 45% of household income.
Only in the last 125 years world started to use electricity. However , electricity is blood of modern economy. As we know a person dies when that person loses a lot of blood or it stops flowing.
Since everyone people use electricity, increase in its price are felt by everyone. That is reason why rich people make noise about it to beat politicians they don’t like (in our case it is ALP) and poor people believe it because it is lived experience.
Steve777 @ #1507 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 8:36 pm
She has chronic health issues. But yes, I hope she can hang on until the next Democrat president, but the point is that they wouldn’t be in a situation of hoping she can hang on if she’d retired and was replaced by someone younger.
William Bowesays:
Monday, June 30, 2025 at 8:35 pm
Post up on the Tasmanian YouGov poll (will do the Morgan poll overnight):
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/tasmanian-election-yougov-poll-and-election-guide/
==============================
That’s how it’s done on this site Omar, Pi & err newy boy.
You contribute to the site by digging up a fresh poll. The Boss picks up a fresh/ripe poll with his “Eye of Sauran”, and whammo – looks like we’re all about to get a new thread.
It’s contributions to this site which count overall. Not grubby smears from clueless posters.
Check my post at 6.48pm tonight.
That’s how it’s done!
Don’t you have a bridge to run and hide under? You’re not very good at this PaulA. You’re not up to the task of insulting people, quite frankly. Perhaps you should quit while you’re only this far behind.
“She has chronic health issues.:”
Which might be a good reason to stay. If she retires does she get the same coverage by the USA Federal Government health plan?
paul A @ #1511 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 8:45 pm
😆
paul A, Monday, June 30, 2025 at 8:45 pm:
————————————-
Yes, William posts about polls. It’s kind of why he created this blog. Is this a fresh insight for you? I’m wondering, because none of your posts are presentations of new polls, but rather criticisms of fellow posters. Exhibit A: the post of yours I’m replying to.
Entropysays:
Monday, June 30, 2025 at 8:49 pm
“She has chronic health issues.:”
Which might be a good reason to stay. If she retires does she get the same coverage by the USA Federal Government health plan?
================
Turned a bit morbid tonight.
I thought you lot were upset with 6-3 verdicts
You chasing the 7-2 variety now?
Entropy @ #1511 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 8:49 pm
I think it’s more the point being that she doesn’t really have a choice other than to stay, otherwise Trump will simply replace her with someone like Aileen Cannon and make the Supreme Court 7-2 Conservative.
Though Sam Alito and Clarence Thomas might decide to retire this term anyway so she can replace one of them in order to secure the Conservative majority for another 30 years.
“I thought you lot were upset with 6-3 verdicts
You chasing the 7-2 variety now?”
More wondering if the reason USA officials stay so long in the job is because the don’t get as good as health care coverage when they retire. The fact that Trump likes to stack SCOTUS with right wing Roman Catholics is not my problem. Not that I’m fan of them but still better than far right evangelicals.
I don’t want to comment on the Mushroom trial but every time they mention the Jury being in deliberations I keep getting flashbacks of Homer Simpson on jury duty.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAiSA2SNbXA
“Free Room, Free Food, Free Swimming Pool, Free HBO, Free Willy!”
Hard Being Greensays:
Monday, June 30, 2025 at 8:08 pm
ACT is limited in how they can raise taxes so unfortunately it landed on payroll tax for the biggest employers. Beats whacking rate payers with the lot
_____________________
Its a choice, neither valid nor invalid. But its worth highlighting that in the year of tax reform (or at least, tax reform as called for by the federal crossbench) payroll tax is explicitly cited as worthy of abolition due to its inefficiency by the Henry review. Having said that, tax “efficiency” can be somewhat overplayed IMO… and there are parts of the review I just don’t agree with on similar equity grounds.
I think the whole exercise is interesting as part of a broader discussion whether “good” policy is values based or as judged by experts.
Like duhh, that is the basis of “politics” itself, but modern political media coverage seems to be throwing “experts” at 20 paces. And much of the discussion here too does lean heavy into appeals to (expert) authority at times.
Entropy @ #1517 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 8:58 pm
I think they just do because they can. It is after all very hard to take away grandpa’s car keys when he’s 91 and thinks he’s perfectly fine after he accidentally reverses into a wall.
The Gerontocracy in the USA in general is a big problem for them. Thankfully in Australia there are hard limits on High Court justices and also there’s a culture where MP’s and Senators are strongly encouraged to retire as they approach 70, at least informally enforced by Labor, Liberals and Nationals.
And the gerontocracy that is the US congress should not be the standard the SCOTUS is held to.
Entropy @ #1514 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 8:49 pm
Well she has no choice now, does she? But if she’d retired a couple of years ago then what happens with her wouldn’t be so critical.
Meanwhile a poll has dropped in Tasmania, a new thread has been created
Alito and Thomas are in their element now. What motivation is there for them to retire when they’ve never been more relevant?
Kirsdarke @ #1521 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 9:07 pm
Kirsdarke it was a big problem. It’s more of a quaint and relatively insignificant historical footnote of a problem from olden days now.
Reform UK’s former deputy leader has launched a new political party.
Ben Habib, who served as deputy to then-leader Richard Tice from October 2023 – July 2024, had already set out his intention to form a party positioned to the right of Reform UK.
Habib stood as a parliamentary candidate for Reform on two occasions, first in a 2024 by-election in the Wellingborough constituency and later at the 2024 general election in the successor seat of Wellingborough and Rushden. Habib finished third on 21.5 per cent of the vote in this latter attempt.
The new party will be known as Advance UK, Habib said in a post to X.
https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2025/06/30/ex-reform-deputy-launches-new-party-to-rival-nigel-farage/
Kirsdarkesays:
Monday, June 30, 2025 at 9:07 pm
The Gerontocracy in the USA in general is a big problem for them.
_______________________
If you want to make it really bad looking in the Australia context, it would be like:
– John Hewson being PM in 2025
– Nick Grenier, Brian Burke, and Jeff Kennet all being premiers in 2025
All above are younger than Trump, and only a year or so older than Chuck Schumer.
More presumptive capitulation. This isn’t the Carney that was presented ahead of the Canadian elections.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/30/canada-cancel-digital-services-tax-trump/
Confessions @ #1523 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 9:12 pm
Alito is 75 and Thomas is 77, so them retiring at this stage will have their “Trump is King” legacy happily continue while they watch the camps be built for their political enemies be built in their twilight years.
Sonia Sotomayor has served on the SC since 2009.
What part of Ginsberg sticking around for too long didn’t she get?
She should have done a mic drop in 2021, but her hubris and narcissism may very well likely see the bench further stacked with RWNJs.
‘Progressives’ in America are the stupidest ‘smart people’ on the planet.
Alito and Thomas are Republicans. It doesn’t count when they’re old. Only when it’s a Democrat, especially women.
Entropy
“ More wondering if the reason USA officials stay so long in the job is because the don’t get as good as health care coverage when they retire. The fact that Trump likes to stack SCOTUS with right wing Roman Catholics is not my problem.”
People who get used to power find it hard to let go. The evidence shows that is true of politicians and judges. Its not a question of brains. Its a test of character.
Honestly it’s an affront to decency itself that the US Supreme Court works this way, that partisan judges can be appointed for life and yet only one side of politics knows how to play the game properly.
When it’s a Democratic administration all they know what to do is squeal like guinea pigs for proper procedure and comity, while Republicans laugh in their faces and are like “Eat shit, losers, we get what we want no matter what.” and they do, and all Democrats do is cry for help from the teacher, which will never arrive for them.
“ Wat Tyler says:
Monday, June 30, 2025 at 9:43 pm
Alito and Thomas are Republicans. It doesn’t count when they’re old. Only when it’s a Democrat, especially women.”
______
If septuagenarian RWNJ judges want to run the risk of vapour locking when there is a Democrat president and Democrat controlled senate, then I for one am all for it. In fact ‘progressives’ nearly got super lucky when Scalia died. Alas.
However, in America’s actual reality such judges appear to be in rude good health and currently sit on the court with the knowledge that there is a rwnj president sitting on the oval, and backed to the hilt by the republican controlled senate. However, I suspect that both Alito and Thomas might want to consider their position about this time next year. Hopefully they will both suffer the same bout of hubris that RBG did back a decade ago – and suffer her fate!
In the meantime, however Sonia’s hubris is a real risk.
“ Entropy
“ More wondering if the reason USA officials stay so long in the job is because the don’t get as good as health care coverage when they retire. The fact that Trump likes to stack SCOTUS with right wing Roman Catholics is not my problem.”
_____
Shenanigans. A typical US Supreme Court judge is likely to be uber roach before being appointed, and if they retire from the bench before they are truly gaga, can expect to double their SC salary by being appointed to an Ivy League law school – in combination with simply agreeing to put their name on a large law firm’s name plate.
We are not talking about public school teachers struggling to keep ahead in a very basic wage and with much in the way of a pension account to look forward to …
”The new party will be known as Advance UK, Habib said in a post to X.”
Maybe inspired by Advance Australia, which is pretty rabidly Right.
Well, “Four Corners” was a bit of a fizzer. Blind Freddy would know that Trump’s tariffs won’t
restore manufacturing jobs in the US.
_________________________________________________________
“Media Watch”, on the other hand, was an eye-opener on the way Aunty treated Lattouf. The judge hearing the matter was scathing of some of the senior staff, saying, for instance, ‘he was unimpressed with Oliver-Taylor’s evidence under cross-examination and described Ms Buttrose’s evidence as “somewhat theatrical and difficult to follow at times”, but said she did not materially contribute to the decision. Lattouf sought a settlement of $85k, and although it wasn’t clear why it was rejected, the whole matter will cost the taxpayer at least $2m. Given the ABC is
a government entity, perhaps it should be required to act as a model litigant.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Shenanigans. A typical US Supreme Court judge is likely to be uber roach before being appointed, and if they retire from the bench before they are truly gaga, can expect to double their SC salary by being appointed to an Ivy League law school – in combination with simply agreeing to put their name on a large law firm’s name plate.
_________
AGAIN with the money?
Steve777 @ #1536 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 9:59 pm
At least in the UK their shit-for-brains Right Wingers tend to fracture like this.
That’s been Farage’s weakness since 2010, yeah from time to time he appears to be on the ascendant, but there’s simply no party discipline.
The Conservatives might look like they’ll be wiped out and replaced on current polling, but they’ve been a force for over 200 years, heck even their leadership committee of backbenchers date back from 1923, that’s 102 years ago.
Farage’s lot meanwhile will most likely fracture like a pack of potato crisps (as they call them over there) being stomped on before the next election is due to be called for June 2029.
I see the thing that is Pauline Hanson has slimed her way out of her dank cavern.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/one-nation-leader-pauline-hanson-disgusted-by-sussan-leys-acknowledged-of-country-speech/news-story/c2b8d6b8906e54e74c6b47182b7b3c9c
Kronomex @ #1540 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 10:18 pm
I honestly wonder if she had freak-outs like this if her family insisted on saying grace before meals at the table?
I mean when my devout Christian grandma insisted on it before we had our meals I just went ahead and said it without screeching like she does about this.
Kirsdarke ”At least in the UK their shit-for-brains Right Wingers tend to fracture like this.
That’s been Farage’s weakness since 2010, yeah from time to time he appears to be on the ascendant, but there’s simply no party discipline.”
People attracted to we might call the Flakey Far Right, in which I include One Nation, the Palmists plus various anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists and other crackpots, seem to be suspicious to the point of paranoia, rejecting any sort of organisation or authority. Their organisations tend to disintegrate, like a radioactive nucleus.
The more mainstream Right has a lot of power and money behind it, so it tends to regenerate quickly after seemingly crushing reverses. When the historic United Australia Party collapsed in a heap after they lost office in 1941, the business community got together to found the IPA and the “Liberal” Party. The rest is history.
Steve777 @ #1542 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 10:25 pm
Yeah, that’s true. I guess what happens in the next few years depends on whether or not the truly Big Money decide to invest in the Bathsalt Reactionary Conservatism that’s currently backing up Trump.
I mean after the 2004 US election, Dubya Bush was absolutely triumphant, up until his response to Hurricane Katrina in late 2005 when it all fell down.
“And Sotomayer should’ve retired 2 years ago, allowing Biden to nominate a normal replacement for her. Instead it is likely Trump will nominate her replacement and it won’t be a Coney-Barratt who gets picked, it’ll be a Fox News type with no ethics.”
American Liberals in the Supreme Court have the well worn habit of being controlled opposition and ignoring reality when deciding when or if to retire.
Clarence Thomas only became a justice because Thurgood Marshall decided to retire in 1991 in the middle of H Bush’s 1 term, instead of retiring during Jimmy Carter’s term (which would have been a respectable ~13 year tenure) or simply refusing to retire at all. He died 4 days into Bill Clinton’s 1st term. Instead he let Bush replace him with a Conservative who has gone on (or will go on) to destroy every legacy Thurgood left.
Ginsburg could have retired when Obama had a bulletproof supermajority and instead fell for the idpol centrist girl boss nonsense and then the Dems nominated the worst presidential candidate of all time, and lost to the second worst presidential candidate of all time.
At this point Sotomayor being replaced by another far right lunatic is just adding fuel to the fire.
I bet Alito & Thomas won’t make the same mistake.
D&M @ #1431 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 6:40 pm
Christ on a crutch. Have you not been paying attention? Or are you really that dim?
“Farage’s lot meanwhile will most likely fracture like a pack of potato crisps (as they call them over there) being stomped on before the next election is due to be called for June 2029.”
Farage and his far-right mates will happily ditch all the non-whites. It’ll probably increase their polling the way things are going over there.
Ghost Of Whitlam @ #1546 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 10:45 pm
I’m so glad this is on youtube, a Dead Ringers skit on how degenerate his party tends to be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dICT9k1OTI
New thread.
Kronomex @ #1540 Monday, June 30th, 2025 – 10:18 pm
Ha ha. Sussan Ley is the leader of the Liberal Party and Opposition Leader and Pauline Hanson isn’t and just an irrelevant Cross Bench Senator. 😀