Live Commentary
5:19pm Wednesday July 2: Preferences were distributed last night, and Mamdani defeated Cuomo by 56.0-44.0.
12:42pm With 90% in, Mamdani leads Cuomo on primary votes by 43.5-36.3. This looks over, but US media won’t call it until the preferential vote tabulation next Tuesday. After the November general election, NYC is likely to have a socialist mayor.
11:49am With 81% in, Mamdani leads on primary votes by 43.8-35.7. If Mamdani’s lead holds up on the remaining votes, he’s very likely to win. Most polls have been very wrong about this contest. The preference tabulation is not until next Tuesday.
11:26am With 54% in, Mamdani’s primary vote lead over Cuomo has been reduced to 43.5-35.4.
11:09am Already we have 38% of votes in, and Mamdani leads Cuomo by 43-34 on primary votes. But these are early votes, and election day votes may be better for Cuomo.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
The New York City (NYC) mayoral general election will be held in November. But NYC is strongly Democratic, so the winner of today’s Democratic mayoral primary is likely to win the general. This election uses Australian-style preferential voting.
Polls close at 11am AEST today, but only primary votes will be counted, with the first tabulation of preferences to be held in a week. It will be optional preferential voting, with a maximum of five preferences allowed. Voters won’t number each box as in Australia. Instead, they’ll be presented with five columns. The left column will be the first choice (primary vote), with the fifth column corresponding to the fifth preference. US ballot papers are intended to be read by machines, not hand counted.
It would be better if NYC and other US jurisdictions that use preferential voting had an indicative two candidate count on election night between the two candidates who were thought likely to make the final two. This would mean they wouldn’t usually have to wait for the preference tabulation to call a winner.
Andrew Cuomo was the Democratic governor of New York state from 2011 until his resignation in 2021 owing to sexual harassment allegations. He was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014 and 2018. Despite the circumstances of his resignation as governor, Cuomo has a clear lead after preferences in most NYC mayoral polls.
Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani (a socialist) are very likely to be the final two candidates, with Cuomo leading Mamdani by double digit margins after preferences in many polls. However, a late Emerson College poll gives Mamdani a four-point lead over Cuomo after preferences.
Current NYC mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat in 2021, is running for re-election as an independent. Adams was indicted last September on federal bribery and fraud charges, but in February federal prosecutors were ordered to dismiss all charges against Adams, who is seen as close to Donald Trump. While the primary uses preferential voting, the November general election will use first past the post. Emerson College polls suggest either Cuomo or Mamdani would easily win in November.
Trump’s national US ratings and Israeli polls
At time of writing on Tuesday, Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls was -6.0, down from -3.7 in early June, with 52.0% disapproving and 45.9% approving. Trump’s net approval on his strongest issue (immigration) has fallen about eight points since early June to -4.1, perhaps owing to the reaction to his handling of protests in Los Angeles.
G. Elliott Morris, who used to run FiveThirtyEight before it was axed, said in polls taken before Trump announced the US bombing of Iran on Saturday night US time, 57% opposed this action while 21% supported it. This compares with 54-41 support for initial military action against ISIS in 2014, 71-27 support for Iraq in 2003 and 88-10 for Afghanistan in 2001.
The next Israeli election is not due until October 2026. Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect its 120 MPs, with 61 needed for a majority. At the November 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and allied parties won a majority for the right with 64 seats. This election ended a run of five elections in four years.
Current polls give the governing parties combined about 50 seats, with about 65 for the opposition parties. An Arab party that is not part of either the government or opposition has the remaining five seats. Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13 has not made a difference.
Mamdani was successful even in high income brackets. The result also sent a clear message that disingenuous accusations of antisemitism don’t work anymore. The lobbyist money lost convincingly. This is all very promising stuff, and Cuomo being unpopular was not really the issue. I expect Mamdani’s campaign strategy will be replicated a lot in upcoming primaries against other unpopular Democrats who don’t reflect the base
In background RCV was introduced in 2021 following a ballot measure passed by 70%+ of voters. Applies only to the primary for New York City Offices only.
It replaced the previous system of run-off elections. Saves money and is one less election for the Board of Elections to stuff up.
But in 2021 the Board of Elections made a complete dogs ear of the counting by not resetting the computers so that 150k test ballots were included in the original count results and were less than open about it and correcting it.
They are also making a hash of it this year by not publishing results more often than once a week!
San Francisco updates the whole results system for RCV on a daily basis (obviously with the proviso that they aren’t the final results until all ballots are received and counted).
I think Cuomo is an absolute fool for conceding before all the ballots have been received let alone counted. It shows a lack of respect to the voters and the system. There is nothing wrong in waiting until all the results are in before graciously conceding.
Because of the nature of RCV in NYC voters only have to rank up to 5 candidates and not all of them.
Some candidates didn’t suggest preferencing other candidates to their supporters at all so there are no ‘how to vote’ cards and preference to model the election night count results.
So until all the ballots are in no one knows the final results.
But Cuomo is still on the November ballot if he choses to be as he’s also on the ‘Fight and Deliver’ party line
TBH this might be a more attractive line to win from as there will be many Dem voters who didn’t take part in the Primary who won’t vote for Mandani or Adams.
I dont think its really fair to talk about Adams as a contender, I don’t think anyone has been as unpopular as him in all of American history, federal, state or city-wise. Cuomo might run but he has already been beaten by Mamdani. Even with the Cuomo name he has come up short, and his family basically invented NY politics. Many didnt vote in the primary but its worth considering that the people who do are the ones who really care, the people who will talk to their neighbours and grocers, or attend and host events.
The current narrative is going to change rapidly if Mamdani does poorly in the General election. He can still win and perform poorly. Anything less than a win by 15% will be seen as a negative. Then the narrative will be less about the need to go left and then it will be the need to go to the centre.
Not that the Republican Curtis Sliwa is a serious threat, but a protest vote for Eric Adams is still possible. But the big challenge will be if Cuomo runs under the Fight and Deliver label.
I’m not sure if it means anything currently since Cuomo’s been ambiguous about whether or not he’s going to campaign, but there was a poll released on 25 June if it turns out to be a 5-way race.
Mamdani (D): 39%
Cuomo (I): 39%
Adams (I): 13%
Sliwa (R): 7%
Walden (I): 0%
https://www.amny.com/politics/poll-mamdani-beats-adams-cuomo-independent/
If Cuomo does end up campaigning as a sore loser candidate, that would be pretty sad.
That poll comes from a pro-Cuomo pollster. I would seriously doubt the real figure at this time is anywhere close. Their primary poll had Cuomo on 38% and Mamdani on 22%.
The main issue that polls can’t really capture is that in the mayoral election Cuomo will have to actually go out and campaign and that is his biggest weakness.
@ Bonza: “I expect Mamdani’s campaign strategy will be replicated a lot in upcoming primaries against other unpopular Democrats who don’t reflect the base”
….As long as it’s only the strategy, not the ideology. Mamdami will do well in NYC, which is about as far left-wing as US areas get; Mamdami’s message wouldn’t travel nearly as well in Utah, or Texas, or even Virginia or New Mexico.
I don’t mind primarying long-serving Democrats who are out of step with their constituency; just be sure that they are, in fact, out of step before challenging them – and risking turning the seat over to the GOP by nominating someone that the constituency simply won’t elect.
It appears that Mamdami has won 56-44 against Cuomo after preferences were distributed today.
Kirsdarke @ #59 Wednesday, July 2nd, 2025 – 7:30 am
You beat me to it.
There you go. It’s official. The few centrist deadenders can stop clinging to that desperate bit of hope that preferences will save Cuomo now and get on board. If you’re a centrist Democrat in New York City* who won’t vote in the race or backs Adams, Cuomo if he has a sore loser run, or anyone else but the Democratic candidate, you’re as bad as the “Never Harris/Biden/Clinton” types.
*(And likewise for any Democrat or Democratic Party supporter outside of NYC who recommends anything but voting for the Democratic candidate)
Mamdani getting more direct votes than Cuomo got with all the preferences distributed should put to rest any weird ideas that Cuomo somehow has a chance in the general election.