The Australian reports the concluding Newspoll for the campaign has Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on two-party preferred, out from 52-48 a week ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 13% (up two) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese is on 42% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), while Peter Dutton is on 32% (down three) and 60% (up one) and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1270.
YouGov has weighed in with its final national poll, conducted last Thursday through to yesterday, which is distinctive even by the standards of recent polling in the weakness of the major party vote: Labor is on 31.1%, down from 33.5% in last week’s regular YouGov poll, with the Coalition on 31.4%, up from 31.0%. The Greens are up from 14.0% to 14.6% and One Nation is down from 10.5% to 8.5%, with independent up from 5.0% to 6.7%, Trumpet of Patriots up from 2.0% to 2.5% and other up from 4.0% to 5.2%. Presumably incorporating data from the latest MRP poll, the preference allocations have been tweaked: Labor’s share from One Nation is down from 33% to 31% (and from 35.7% at the 2022 election), but its independent share is up from 59% to 65% (63.8% in 2022). This pans out to 52.2-47.8 to Labor, in from 53.5-47.8 last week. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Peter Dutton is down three to 33% and up three to 57%; and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 50-35 to 51-34. The poll was conducted last Thursday to yesterday from a sample of 3003.
Also out today was a poll was a poll from DemosAU showing Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 33%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 9%. Labor was credited with a two-party lead of 52-48 – whereas in the past this pollster had been using preference flows from the 2022 election, this time the Coalition was credited with the 73% of One Nation preferences they received at the Queensland election last October, which would reduce Labor’s two-party by about 0.7%. The poll had a bumper sample of 4100, lending credibility to state breakdowns recording 50-50 in New South Wales (a Coalition swing of about 1.5%), 53-47 to Labor in Victoria (a Coalition swing of about 2%), 54-46 to the Coalition in Queensland (no swing) and 56-44 to Labor in Western Australia (a Labor swing of about 1%). The poll was conducted from Sunday to Wednesday.
The print editions of the News Corp papers have a final wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research tracking poll of 20 marginal seats, in which Labor’s blowout 54.5-45.5 lead over the previous two weeks has moderated to 53-47, implying a swing to Labor of 2%. The accompanying report is light on for detail – nothing on primary votes, field work dates or sample size – but there is likely to be more from a forthcoming online report.
Roy Morgan has a poll with Labor leading 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, unchanged on the poll released on Monday, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34.5% (steady), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (down one). The two-party result based on 2022 preference flows is 54-46, likewise unchanged. The poll was conducted from Monday through to today from a sample of 1368.
That just leaves the only poll that matters – and BludgerTrack, which ends with Labor’s lead at a new peak of 53.2-47.8, exactly equal to Bob Hawke’s winning margin in 1983. I must stress that this is not at all what I expect to happen, and I will be happy to admit I was wrong if I am proved right, so to speak. The caveats were laid out in yesterday’s post: as well as a tendency of polling over recent years to overstate Labor’s primary vote, BludgerTrack’s application of preference flows from the last election almost undoubtedly flatters Labor, and I will probably come up with something different when I crank the machine up again next term. While I do not believe the more extravagant talk of One Nation flows to the Coalition matching those of the Greens to Labor, I do think YouGov, Newspoll and DemosAU have likely been judicious in bumping up the Coalition’s share from 64.3% to upwards of 70%, and that Labor’s 85.7% share of Greens preferences from 2022 is unlikely to be matched. That should be enough to knock a point off what BludgerTrack is crediting Labor with, which would make tomorrow night all about whether or not Labor can make it to a majority.
Late mail from party sources related via media reports:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reported yesterday that Labor internal polling showed them leading in the Coalition-held seats of Sturt and Bonner, respectively by 53.5-46.5 and 51.5-48.5, and tied in Bass. In rather sharp contrast to talk coming from the Liberal camp, the polling shows Labor holding Whitlam by 56-44 and Gorton by 55-45. Labor is said to lead the Greens by 54.5-45.5 in Wills, where party sources say the Greens are withdrawing resources to focus on their seats in Brisbane. Maiden quotes a Liberal source saying Labor’s expectation of a final seat tally somewhere between 72 and 78 is “credible”.
• A different story emerges from the Liberal sources of The Australian, whose theory of victory involves winning Aston, Gilmore, McEwen, Tangney, Solomon, Paterson, Werriwa, Gorton, Hawke and Bullwinkel from Labor, Goldstein, Curtin and Kooyong from independents and Ryan from the Greens, pushing its seat count into the seventies and giving it the whip hand in cross-bench negotiations over Labor, who would be reduced to 67. The sources invoked went so far as to rate eight gains as definite and ten as likely. Concerns were nonetheless acknowledged about Bradfield and, unusually for such a bullish assessment, Bass and Braddon were “considered too close to call but the Coalition is confident of retaining them” (a bit of cognitive dissonance that might be thought to colour the rest of the assessment). Labor was “also facing neck-and-neck races in Bennelong, Robertson and Lyons”, though why they would be excluded from the list of seats about which the Coalition was “hopeful” if this were so is unclear. Then there is Lingiari, ̶which is considered tough to poll”, and presumably for that reason alone is rated “too close to call”.
Steve777 I wish they were fully counted and dropped at 6pm causing Antony Green to call the election at 6:01pm
Not sure I can even watch the vacuous Crab on the ABC
Is there an YouTube live stream with real experts you can watch?
Griffsays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:44 pm
MSmith says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:41 pm
Is there a summary?
======================================================
Summary: Right wing nutter, best ignore.
That’s terrible! They should postal vote in future and be done with in-person voting.
For those poised with Guinness or Kilkenny, try pouring it into a pint glass, topping it up with sweetened condensed milk, adding half a teaspoon of instant coffee, then stirring vigorously with a long handled spoon.
Trust me.
Omar Comin’ says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:49 pm
Please forward your brilliant suggestion to the AEC.. after WA closes naturally
Will add my prediction here from Tallyroom.
Starting off on notional margins (Lib Bennelong, ALP Menzies, ALP Aston):
Coalition gain: Aston, Menzies
Labor gain: Sturt, Bennelong, Moore
Greens gain: Richmond
Others gain: Bradfield, Cowper, Wannon, Calare
Total:
ALP 78
Coalition 52
Greens 5
Others 15
2PP 52.5 ALP
(Rest of this is commentary/reasoning)
On the whole, a lot of very close contests but I have leaned towards the incumbent for races that I thought were close to 50-50. This includes Bennelong and Gilmore. I think that Victoria is genuinely swinging a couple of points less to ALP than the rest of the nation so I would normally consider Menzies and Deakin as potential ALP pickups but in this case I lean towards them being Coalition. Sturt is a notable exception here because I think the results in this area have been far too good in recent years for the Labor party to not be the prohibitive favourite. Meanwhile Moore is I think a good prospect for an upset Labor win because WA seems to be swinging towards Labor from 2022 and Moore consistently swings in line with the state, plus there is a potential preference split with the former Liberal member’s ticket. Labor also preselected a strong candidate in 2022 and have kept him for this election.
I have been looking for seats for the Coalition to pick up, and earlier in the campaign I thought they would have Lingiari, Paterson, Bennelong and potentially Gilmore, but they have unravelled awfully. What’s particularly striking to me is their primary vote decline. I think this therefore bodes especially poorly for them when contesting independents, because Coalition defectors to minor right wing parties might still preference against Labor but that is far less so when it comes to non-classic contests, if perhaps even favouring the challenger.
Likewise, votes for Greens and others seems to have picked up over the course of the campaign. Therefore I think they will hold on to their 2022 gains. It’s hard to guess the individual seats where they should do well. However, I think Richmond is a seat where the Greens are generally increasing while Labor is declining, and the same candidates from 2022 for all of Greens, Labor and Nationals are in the mix so it doesn’t feel that there should be a dramatic change. With just the continued gains of the Greens at the expense of Labor, that seems like a good prospect for a pickup.
In Melbourne, I thought Wills should be a good prospect because of Palestine but considering the Greens margin from the areas redistributed from Melbourne is slightly inflated, I’m not sure they are actually getting the swing they require. It may be a close call but I’m tilting Labor. I also think Josh Burns should retain Macnamara relatively handily although that may end up a mug call.
No idea about Fowler, I can see Tu Le winning but once again I’ll default to the incumbent where I don’t have a solid read.
The big takeaway to me is that I’m honestly not seeing the path to 60 seats for the Coalition when their vote is this low, because not only are they likely losing seats to Labor but also to independent challengers.
Thank you Mexicanbeemer.
Labor strategists believe a slim majority is in play ahead of East Coast polls closing, with tracking polls in 20 key marginals giving the Albanese government an average primary vote of 40 per cent.
In the Oz
“Senior ALP sources said on Saturday night this was three per cent higher than the party received in marginal seats at the 2022 election, prompting optimism that Anthony Albanese could win a second term in his own right.
However, Labor is acknowledging that minority government is still a potential outcome if preferences flow against them in suburban Melbourne.
The Australian reported on Friday that Liberal strategists still believe they can get up to as much as 72 seats if preferences flow their way in Teal electorates and outer suburban targets.”
Sceptic @ #994 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 5:51 pm
Me either. Ditto with the silly vox pops.
I’m hanging in there for the last of Antony Green, however. Although it’s proving a tough ask at present. Hopefully things will reset to normal once counting is underway.
Listen to her, I can barely look at her, I detest the big loud glasses and the gauche colours, look at me, look at me I’m zany! Crabbe is about as superficial as it gets. How does this oxygen thief keep getting a gig on the ABC?
Ante Meridian, you put milk in beer, and think there is something wrong with a sweet rose?
Ante Meridian @ #999 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 5:52 pm
I’ll keep that in mind for next time, just as a rule I don’t drink caffeine after 4pm, otherwise I’m wide awake until 4am.
Has anyone talked about Forrest being a sleeper to watch?
Griff says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:44 pm
MSmith says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:41 pm
Is there a summary?
—–
I fed it into ChatGPT and asked for a summary. Here’s what I got:
“The text argues that the Greens’ frustration with Labor is justified, as Labor relies on their preferences to win elections while publicly dismissing them. It criticizes Prime Minister Albanese’s refusal to engage with the Greens and highlights dysfunction in the Liberal Party as a key reason for Labor’s strength in South Australia. The author praises former Liberal Premier Stephen Marshall’s leadership during COVID but attacks current Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas for flashy spending, poor consultation, and neglect of public issues like transport safety. The Greens’ preferences remain crucial in tight races like Boothby, explaining their pushback against Labor.”
Ante Meridian says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:52 pm
For those poised with Guinness or Kilkenny, try pouring it into a pint glass, topping it up with sweetened condensed milk, adding half a teaspoon of instant coffee, then stirring vigorously with a long handled spoon.
Trust me.
__________
Guinness, sure. But Kilkenny?
Oh no, is Annabelle Crabb really hosting the ABC coverage? Sigh. How upsetting. Terrible. Hopefully its just Antony Green talking for most it, and Tingle, Speers, Brennan and Briggs.
Surely not the airheaded Crabbe!
BW
I am obviously hoping Sam Lim gets up.
And I really do wish the hacks would not continually refer to him as a former dolphin trainer.
His award as police officer of the year for his work in ethnic communities during Covid is far more noteworthy.
It’s funny that nobody has talked about the liberal candidate’s background other than that he was born in Singapore and came to Australia to study. Stayed and ran an IT business.
A few mentions that he was active in the Australian Christian Lobby.
Just what libs need. Another god botherer.
Omar Comin’says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:49 pm
Steve777 I wish they were fully counted and dropped at 6pm causing Antony Green to call the election at 6:01pm
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
I don’t know how old you are Omar, but that day is coming, perhaps sooner than we think.
Might take the pleasure out of the night, though.
One good thing is that I can pop the bubbly at 6.01pm instead of 8pm or even later.
When you’re winning, there is nothing better than to see the other side suffering.
Suffer, Baby, Suffer.
Griff,
Yep, although I sometimes leave out the coffee on the Kilkenny ones.
“ Has anyone talked about Forrest being a sleeper to watch?”
Yeah they were talking about it on Sky earlier.
I did. I put Forrest as my Smokey
Go Well Mother Labor.
Pi he put milk in Guinness, beer is a different matter
Glen O says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:55 pm
Griff says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:44 pm
MSmith says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:41 pm
Is there a summary?
—–
I fed it into ChatGPT and asked for a summary. Here’s what I got:
“The text argues that the Greens’ frustration with Labor is justified, as Labor relies on their preferences to win elections while publicly dismissing them. It criticizes Prime Minister Albanese’s refusal to engage with the Greens and highlights dysfunction in the Liberal Party as a key reason for Labor’s strength in South Australia. The author praises former Liberal Premier Stephen Marshall’s leadership during COVID but attacks current Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas for flashy spending, poor consultation, and neglect of public issues like transport safety. The Greens’ preferences remain crucial in tight races like Boothby, explaining their pushback against Labor.”
__________
Thanks! I should have done that. A bit odd.
Let the counting begin !
6pm! Aaaaaaaand we’re off!
ltep:
What was the essence of the discussion?
The Albonator @ #1017 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 6:00 pm
I’m hoping it is. Give Marino a jolt for taking it for granted.
If tonight’s count includes pre-polls, we need to adjust Labor’s 2PP at the close of counting tonight downwards by about 0.5% to take account of postals (about 8% of total vote, advantaging Coalition by about 6%).
“clem attleesays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:54 pm
Listen to her, I can barely look at her, I detest the big loud glasses and the gauche colours, look at me, look at me I’m zany! Crabbe is about as susperficial as it gets. How does this oxygen thief keep getting a gig on the ABC?”
===================================================================
Not an annabelle fan I take it lol?
MSmith
I agree with some of that but Ashton Hurn has a toddler and couldn’t take over. Mali has done very well with sporting event and giving SA a bit more confidence.
He have done really poorly at running anything esp health. Child protection, police, housing are almost as bad. But he will win easily.
Five years time won’t be so easy.
New Thread from William
New thread.
It seems Annabelle Crabb has united the Board! Huzzah!
Any Exit polls?
Confessions
There have been a few mentions of Forrest in WA media.
Long serving liberal retiring, prominent local surgeon as independent.
The liberals would despair if they lost a seat they have have owned for decades.
Why is it that every time I see Laura I get a Tingle up my spine ?
She’s flown under the radar but in Deakin, independent Jess Ness is a real chance. Labor is terribly organised and Sukkar is on the nose thanks to Dutton and Trump. You heard it here first.
In the rural booth of Ruffy, in Indi, Helen Haines has received a 4% swing 2pp (98) to her, from just over 59% to 63.22%, total formal votes 155.
That was a decent enough concession speech from Dutton, with only a hint at whining.
Dutts, don’t let the door hit you on the butt on your way out. lol