The Australian reports the concluding Newspoll for the campaign has Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on two-party preferred, out from 52-48 a week ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 13% (up two) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese is on 42% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), while Peter Dutton is on 32% (down three) and 60% (up one) and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1270.
YouGov has weighed in with its final national poll, conducted last Thursday through to yesterday, which is distinctive even by the standards of recent polling in the weakness of the major party vote: Labor is on 31.1%, down from 33.5% in last week’s regular YouGov poll, with the Coalition on 31.4%, up from 31.0%. The Greens are up from 14.0% to 14.6% and One Nation is down from 10.5% to 8.5%, with independent up from 5.0% to 6.7%, Trumpet of Patriots up from 2.0% to 2.5% and other up from 4.0% to 5.2%. Presumably incorporating data from the latest MRP poll, the preference allocations have been tweaked: Labor’s share from One Nation is down from 33% to 31% (and from 35.7% at the 2022 election), but its independent share is up from 59% to 65% (63.8% in 2022). This pans out to 52.2-47.8 to Labor, in from 53.5-47.8 last week. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Peter Dutton is down three to 33% and up three to 57%; and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 50-35 to 51-34. The poll was conducted last Thursday to yesterday from a sample of 3003.
Also out today was a poll was a poll from DemosAU showing Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 33%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 9%. Labor was credited with a two-party lead of 52-48 – whereas in the past this pollster had been using preference flows from the 2022 election, this time the Coalition was credited with the 73% of One Nation preferences they received at the Queensland election last October, which would reduce Labor’s two-party by about 0.7%. The poll had a bumper sample of 4100, lending credibility to state breakdowns recording 50-50 in New South Wales (a Coalition swing of about 1.5%), 53-47 to Labor in Victoria (a Coalition swing of about 2%), 54-46 to the Coalition in Queensland (no swing) and 56-44 to Labor in Western Australia (a Labor swing of about 1%). The poll was conducted from Sunday to Wednesday.
The print editions of the News Corp papers have a final wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research tracking poll of 20 marginal seats, in which Labor’s blowout 54.5-45.5 lead over the previous two weeks has moderated to 53-47, implying a swing to Labor of 2%. The accompanying report is light on for detail – nothing on primary votes, field work dates or sample size – but there is likely to be more from a forthcoming online report.
Roy Morgan has a poll with Labor leading 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, unchanged on the poll released on Monday, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34.5% (steady), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (down one). The two-party result based on 2022 preference flows is 54-46, likewise unchanged. The poll was conducted from Monday through to today from a sample of 1368.
That just leaves the only poll that matters – and BludgerTrack, which ends with Labor’s lead at a new peak of 53.2-47.8, exactly equal to Bob Hawke’s winning margin in 1983. I must stress that this is not at all what I expect to happen, and I will be happy to admit I was wrong if I am proved right, so to speak. The caveats were laid out in yesterday’s post: as well as a tendency of polling over recent years to overstate Labor’s primary vote, BludgerTrack’s application of preference flows from the last election almost undoubtedly flatters Labor, and I will probably come up with something different when I crank the machine up again next term. While I do not believe the more extravagant talk of One Nation flows to the Coalition matching those of the Greens to Labor, I do think YouGov, Newspoll and DemosAU have likely been judicious in bumping up the Coalition’s share from 64.3% to upwards of 70%, and that Labor’s 85.7% share of Greens preferences from 2022 is unlikely to be matched. That should be enough to knock a point off what BludgerTrack is crediting Labor with, which would make tomorrow night all about whether or not Labor can make it to a majority.
Late mail from party sources related via media reports:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reported yesterday that Labor internal polling showed them leading in the Coalition-held seats of Sturt and Bonner, respectively by 53.5-46.5 and 51.5-48.5, and tied in Bass. In rather sharp contrast to talk coming from the Liberal camp, the polling shows Labor holding Whitlam by 56-44 and Gorton by 55-45. Labor is said to lead the Greens by 54.5-45.5 in Wills, where party sources say the Greens are withdrawing resources to focus on their seats in Brisbane. Maiden quotes a Liberal source saying Labor’s expectation of a final seat tally somewhere between 72 and 78 is “credible”.
• A different story emerges from the Liberal sources of The Australian, whose theory of victory involves winning Aston, Gilmore, McEwen, Tangney, Solomon, Paterson, Werriwa, Gorton, Hawke and Bullwinkel from Labor, Goldstein, Curtin and Kooyong from independents and Ryan from the Greens, pushing its seat count into the seventies and giving it the whip hand in cross-bench negotiations over Labor, who would be reduced to 67. The sources invoked went so far as to rate eight gains as definite and ten as likely. Concerns were nonetheless acknowledged about Bradfield and, unusually for such a bullish assessment, Bass and Braddon were “considered too close to call but the Coalition is confident of retaining them” (a bit of cognitive dissonance that might be thought to colour the rest of the assessment). Labor was “also facing neck-and-neck races in Bennelong, Robertson and Lyons”, though why they would be excluded from the list of seats about which the Coalition was “hopeful” if this were so is unclear. Then there is Lingiari, ̶which is considered tough to poll”, and presumably for that reason alone is rated “too close to call”.
Finally caught up on the posts here from before I left to go vote.
Desert QLDer. Love your early afternoon post. Top stuff cobber.
Voted at the Yugumbir State Primary School around 2pm. Firmly in the seat of Rankin. A few Labor crew in HTVs, one Green, and one old grumpy LNP guy sitting in a beach chair doing zip. They clearly know this is safe Labor country. Got a democracy sausage, which sadly wasn’t as good as what UpNorth clearly has on the go tonight.
Short queue, was in and out in less than 10 minutes. Chatted to a few AEC staff while I was there. Said the day hadn’t been particularly busy.
Now to get ready for the ABC. Got the Hawke beer chilling, the champers chilling, and snagged myself a bottle of Penfolds Bin 389. Plan is to imbibe the Penfolds while the counting happens, and then crack the champers when Albo wins.
Labor is on track to be returned to government according to new exit polling of real voters across 19 electorates.
An exit poll of nearly 3700 voters at 19 electorates across the country on Saturday — at booths most reflective of the final result at the 2022 election— shows Labor and the Coalition’s primary vote neck-and-neck at 32 per cent.
But Greens preferences and Teal interference in some key seats could push Labor across the line in places like Queensland and cause the Coalition to lose electorates like Bradfield.
Today’s exit polling, when combined with figures from exit polling done in the first two days of early voting, show Labor securing a 2.2 per cent swing toward it.
The Coalition, based on the combined exit poll, would fail to improve on its dismal result in 2022 with the results showing a small 0.8 per cent swing against it.
Ultimately the exit polling shows Labor could hold in many of its marginal seats including Gilmore, Werriwa and Boothby — allowing it to hit or get very close to the 76 seats needed to govern in majority.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/latest-polls/federal-election-exit-poll-shows-labor-on-track-to-form-government-closing-in-on-majority/news-story/e14545ffa087d607268ecbdfe6deca39?amp
jt1983 @ #937 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 5:24 pm
No. I’ve just had my doubts about all the Dutton/Coalition doom commentary. We’ve been here before after all.
Dr Fumbles McStupid says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:29 pm
Kate Chaney for Curtin being interviewed on Sky talking about dirty liberal tactics and on cue liberal volunteers turn up and photo bomb behind her with giant liberal candidate signs
———
Whatever they do it’s not going to work. Chaney will be easily re-elected.
Just got exit polled via SMS from Ucomms(?).
I’ll be bathing and putting my toddler to bed during the 7:00-8:30 window when a lot of the action happens but will be trying to keep an eye on the results.
After he’s asleep, I’m having shots if:
– Dutton loses his seat
– Sonya wins Macnamara
– Libs go backwards in seats
On another note, I rewatched Don’s Party the other night and it made me wish I was having an election party. Although maybe not given how that party (and election result) turned out.
Trust me, you’ll be fine.
More Courier Mail:
Meanwhile in Queensland, Labor can expect a swing toward it across the inner-city target seats and Cairns if the exit polling results hold up.
The Greens vote has also held up across all its three Queensland seats.
In Brisbane, Labor’s Madonna Jarrett will lead the three cornered contest with a primary vote of 37.3 per cent, with the sitting Greens MP Stephen Bates on 28.5 per cent. Liberal Trevor Evans, on the poll count, comes in third with a primary vote of 31.5 per cent.
On those numbers Labor would take Brisbane from the Greens.
But the Greens have pulled ahead in the seat of Ryan, with Elizabeth Watson-Brown securing a primary vote of 37.4 per cent according to the exit polling, with Labor at 32.2 per cent and the LNP lagging at 27.4 per cent.
Up north in the perennial target seat of Leichhardt, the count will go down to the wire with Labor securing a 8.9 per cent swing toward it for a primary vote of 36.5 per cent.
But the Liberals are not far behind on 31.3 per cent, and the vote for the Greens (11.5 per cent), One Nation (8 per cent) and other minor parties (12.3 per cent) will complicate the preference flows.
Griffith remains too close to call, with sitting MP Max Chandler-Mather in line to secure a primary vote of nearly 37 per cent, compared to Labor’s 32.2 per cent and the LNP’s 28.7 per cent.
If Labor comes in second, it is possible Renee Coffey could be pushed to victory on the back of preferences from the LNP — just as what occurred in the state seat of South Brisbane in October last year.
More Courier Mail
The combined exit polling result shows Climate 200-backed Nicolette Boele is almost certain to win Bradfield with a strong 35.2 per cent primary vote compared to the Liberal’s 39.2 per cent — a swing of 14.3 per cent to Ms Boele and 5.8 per cent against the Liberals compared to 2022.
In Werriwa the Liberals and Labor are neck and neck at 37.5 per cent and 37.8 per cent on their primary vote, though the Greens vote at 9 per cent will likely push Labor over the line to keep the seat in government hands.
A 7 per cent collapse in the Liberal vote in Gilmore and 8.5 per cent rise in Labor’s vote compared to 2022 — if reflected in the final results — would hand certain victory to Labor’s Fiona Phillips in a seat where well-known identity Andrew Constance was tipped to win.
In Paterson, the entry of independent Phillip Penfold has made the seat too close to call with the Liberals sitting on a primary vote of 30.8 per cent while Labor is on 34 per cent, a swing against those parties of 5.9 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively.
Labor’s Jerome Laxale in Bennelong could cement his position as the best marginal seat campaigner in the party, with the exit polling showing a healthy swing toward him of 7.3 per cent and a further collapse in the Liberal vote of 2.9 per cent.
I’ll be drinking Jindong juicy hazy pale from Rocky Ridge down in Busselton.
I drank it during the last Fed election so now I’m stuck with it until Labor loses an election.
It’s tasty so I’m happy to drink it for a while yet.
Confessions:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:24 pm
Mavis @ #932 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 5:21 pm
Antony Green said on “7.30” last night that the Tories will have a 1.6% PV pre-polling advantage.
If he’s right, Labor will need a substantial lead among those some 13 mil who didn’t pre-poll. I’m still confident though.
Dr Fumbles McStupid says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:26 pm
Just opened the lorry boys lager, have a bottle of sparkling shiraz on standby if it looks like a majority
_________
I have started early with a splurgundy with the Turkish pide. Need to wait for the sun to set for the fortified 🙂
autocrat @ #932 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 5:25 pm
Ah, coincidence, I also have a 6-pack of Kilkenny, partially because it was on special, and partially because I’m in the mood for something Irish tonight.
I’ll see how the seats go meanwhile and will watch Sky News if Labor’s clearly winning.
No waiting at the local school in Tangney.
Surprised at paucity of signs and banners.
Nowhere near the amount at the recent state election.
And only a handful of volunteers.
Strange for what’s seen by some pundits as a seat up for grabs.
Voted in Melbourne at my usual polling place. Didn’t realise that I had changed electorates when I moved last year. Apparently I should have showed up somewhere in the Marybyrong electorate instead. Had to wait for an hour in the absentee voting line. Only 4 candidates in Marybrong in the lower house. ALP, Liberal, Greens and One Nation, fewest I’ve ever seen on a lower house ballot.
Chucked Purple Pingers a vote in the senate. Think it’ll be funny if he wins.
Dr Fumbles McStupid @ #940 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 5:26 pm
I’m going all Cold Chisel – cheap wine and a four-decade growth.
Grant Birge Merlot @ $20. Sorry C@t, Mateus Rose won’t cut it!
More from the Courier Snail
South Australia
The Peter Malinauskas effect continues to rage in South Australia, with Labor expected to enjoy further swings toward it in both Boothby and Sturt.
On the exit polling figures, Labor will take Sturt from the Liberals after securing a 39 per cent primary vote to their 36.5 per cent.
In Boothby, Nicolle Flint’s re-entry into the political fray looks unlikely to eventuate in a Liberal win with Labor estimated to experience a 6.7 per cent swing toward it. The Greens vote in Boothby has also climbed 4 per cent compared to 2022 to 19.3 per cent.
Tasmania
Lyons will no longer be a marginal seat for Labor if the exit poll results hold up, with candidate Bec White — a former state Labor opposition leader — expected to secure a significant primary vote.
The exit polling in Lyons was done across Old Beach and Brighton, though half of the votes came from the Sorell booth — square in Ms White’s support heartland.
My beers for tonight are a couple of selections from The Mill in Collingwood – the “Haze” hazy IPA and their “Kicker” IPA.
@Blanket Criticism, I put Purple Pingers #1 in the senate too (followed by Steph Hodgins-May who my vote will probably end up with, then Fiona Patten).
Bittersweet to see Antony’s last election coverage. He’s been the main character energy of election counting since I started voting and took an interest in politics. I’ve known no-one else in a similar role.
New thread at polls close I assume?
Re the Greens, the fact that they didn’t announce this and have just done it on the sly on election day testifies to both their grubbiness but also their predicament. It would do them alot more damage nationally than what it would do to labor in those seats
Even if it costs labor those seats it is highly unlikely that those seats would be the difference between majority government or not. But it could save 2 high profile liberals and some infrastructure for the next state and federal campaigns
On a related note, the greens could go back to one seat. That would surely see off bandt as leader. Either way it should end the ridiculousness or their leader sitting in the HOR
anyone have some links to the count as it progresses?
My prediction for tonight:
Labor 80
LNP 50
Greens 5
Others 15
“anyone have some links to the count as it progresses?”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/results?sortBy=latest&searchQuery=&filter=all&selectedRegion=all&selectedParty=all&partyWonBy=all&partyHeldBy=all
AEC tally room isn’t up yet.
Exit polls in 2019 had Labor winning.
They didn’t win.
While I am not expecting Liberals to get a miracle of those proportions, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Labor end up on, say, only 69 or so seats.
I put the greens at 11 in the senate to minimise the chance of my cote going to them (short of selecting a RW candidate)
Anybody who thinks the Greens want Peter Dutton as PM are simply throwing the toys out of the pram because they saw somebody else get a toy. The Greens`attitude is reasonable – for some time now the ALP has won seats and Government through Greens preferences.
They can`t keep riding on the backs of Greens preferences, make public statements disclaiming the Greens, and have their leader/PM staring directly at the camera and saying there won`t be any deals with the Greens with that unblinking stare that with him signals another unashamed lie.
All this and yet Albanese`s Labor can`t get over the line and take government without Greens prferences and Greens deals in power-taking negotiations. The Greens saying stuff you then is the law of consequences – why would they accept this disrespect?
As for the seat of Sturt – James Stephens just isn`t high profile enough for one. These are different times in the old blue ribbon seats including in South Australia. Yet again, the presence of Greens voters who are mostly affluent to wealthy people in those kinds of seats will send preferences to his Labor opponent.
All the talk about `Mail this` and `Mali that` is politico babble. Labor is strong in SA because the Opposition is a mess. The former Liberal Premier Stephen Marshall was unlucky to be leader during Covid – he handled everything with decency, was low key, didn`t display that frightening arrogance and cold lack of empathy that Disgraceful Dan Andrews did during Covid in Victoria.
Stephen re-opened the Repat Hospital that had been closed by a previous Labor Govt – that helped with finding beds for patients and is still in use now as another good healthcare facility. Stephen`s successor David Spiers had to resign from his seat after being accused of cocaine dealing and was found guilty recently in court.
The Liberals should have gone with a woman called Ashton Hurne after Stephen, she`s the spokesperson on Health. The leader now is Vincent Tarzia, has a good record as an MP but has got a lot of ground to catch up with Peter Malinaskas.
Not all of us are favourable to the Party Pete activity in spending billions on events and attracting events that are mostly sport and beer oriented.
Oh and he very kindly spent near a million making sure Katy Perry came to Adelaide for a concert. All this when people died in ambulances because of ramping. Party Pete also told developers they can build a huge tower in the centre of Adelaide – too bad the space is at a premium and it will take up green spaces where people can actually see views.
He also made a merger of universities with very little consultation with the staff and their trade unions.
His unilateral decision making style does not go down well with everybody – yet there is so much media hype about this politician. At least in Queensland the ex Labor Premier gave election promises of cheap transportation fares for everybody – Party Pete and Louise Miller Frost, member for Boothby, had a media event where they stood at a train station and offered 50 cent fares for the welfare demographic but absolutely zero for those who fund the public transportation system with fare increasing every year.
If we are never going to get any kind of consideration fare-wise, we`d like a system where fare evaders don`t regularly get on trains, trams and buses high on drugs, bringing on alcohol and drinking it, smoking etc and abusing those of us who are behaving like civil adults.
Apparently in Party Pete Land this problem doesn`t exist and too bad for those abused/injured by offenders.
Louise Miller Frost the Boothby member has a fight on her hands with Liberal Nicholle Flint who served two terms previously. Regardless of whether people fully endorse Flint`s conservatism, she was an active and caring previous local member. If Miller Frost is re-elected, it will be down to those Green preferences yet again. And people wonder why the Greens are rightfully showing some pushback to Labor.
My wife and I voted at a dual polling place here in Townsville. For the first time in my long voting life the only signage was for the LNP but more surprisingly the four people handing out were all LNP supporters handing out only LNP How to Vote Cards . Not another soul about. It appeared the many voters were following the only htv card – the LNP.
It seems Labor is non existent anymore in North Queensland. To think three cycles ago Labor held the seat of Herbert centred on Townsville. No wonder the LNP are huge favourites to again sweep the state of Queensland. Labor has literally disappeared. Maybe some of the Labor PB can find out what has gone so wrong for Labor up North.
Doesn’t augur well for the Senate count either.
“Exit polls in 2019 had Labor winning.
They didn’t win.”
Are right wingers born liars? Can’t even tell some random Joe at the exit polls the truth?
Honestly I don’t think this 2019 because Scott Morrison was popular and Peter St Peters getting more disapproval as the polling continues so it also pollings being right for most of the time they were right for the Canadian election they were right in the UK Council elections Queensland election in the Western Australia and NT election also my electric’s home to David so that’s great having to do my voting to make sure the least Nut Job gets the least amount of preferences was really fun labour one green two independent free so on and so on
Am wondering if the accepted belief that early voters favour Coals holds any water considering so many have prepolled. The entire cohort of 6 + mill can’t lean right when the polls say 52-53% ALP v 47 – 48% LNP
Before the ragging on the Greens regarding menzies and deakin continues, can anyone actually confirm it happened? Someone called it a rumour or something, and everyone seems to have run with it.
Before the ragging on the Greens regarding menzies and deakin continues, can anyone actually confirm it happened? Someone called it a rumour or something, and everyone seems to have run with it.
I spoke to a Labor supporter of about 40 years who although he voted for Shorty in 2019, he said he never liked him and when I pressed him on why, he said he didn’t trust him.
I find that incredulous, as I’ve could not fault the man.
I did however have inside intelligence that he was ready to pounce should Albo stumble.
Alas, poor Shorty! I knew him well !
Didn’t the Liberal party have this same attitude to the DLP in the 1950’s-70’s though? I don’t recall their preferences changing much as they voted Liberal over Labor 90-10 through those years, in Victoria at least.
ABC.. Annabel Crab.. on about low primary vote for major parties…
“ it’s unsustainable “ exactly what part is unsustainable in a preferential voting system… clueless … it’s going to be a looooong night.. will have to do a Roy& HG.. watch ABC with sound OFF a read the PB blog.
MSmith says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:41 pm
Is there a summary?
Timmy the election was much closer in 2019 than it is now in fact if anything Coalition should have been building a lead during the off period then like did in 2022 also you have to realise something Scott Morrison was popular and Bill Shorten isn’t Peter is not popular Anthony is and polling’s been right so far and don’t say the American election because honestly the more I think about it that was 50/50 until on the day
Upnorth – A Labor Partisansays:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:33 pm
More Courier Mail
The combined exit polling result shows Climate 200-backed Nicolette Boele is almost certain to win Bradfield with a strong 35.2 per cent primary vote compared to the Liberal’s 39.2 per cent — a swing of 14.3 per cent to Ms Boele and 5.8 per cent against the Liberals compared to 2022.
====================================================================
These polls of voting day voters probably need to be corrected by 2-3% to account for pre-polls and postal voting being better for the LNP. Though i note the winning margins suggested are beyond that margin.
Millenial and Gen Z the biggest voting block – lets go!
Corleone no but it happens early
Almost time…
I won’t bother with the IPSOS which came in very late and had Labor at 28% primary vote (insert shocked face)
I voted in East Gosford around lunch time, long queues. I was in line around 30 minutes I think. LNP HTV’ers clearly outnumbered the rest, a handful of Labor and 1 each for the Greens and One Nation. The One Nation guy being there and wishing me a nice day moved them up to 6th out of 7 with TOP last, just after Lucy. Greens first of course, Labor 4th
I numbered 15 boxes in the Senate, just a personal preference, but it feels nice not having to number either major of the right-wing parties
Bring on the close of polls and start of the counting
#25in25
Entropy says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:44 pm
I’m going for pre polls falling the same way the booth votes go +/- 0.5%
The more the % of pre polls increase the closer they will get to polling day vote.. “ you know it makes sense”
@Rossmcg says: Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:34 pm
Good luck to you and Sam Lim. I’ll be taking a celebratory shot if Sam Lim retains Tangney, he’s been a great local MP and certainly has spent more time in Perth than he has in Newcastle.
Do pre-polls get added into tonight’s count or are they opened later?
Steve777says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:47 pm
Do pre-polls get added into tonight’s count or are they opened later?
—————
Tonight.
Expat (4.48) asked:
Hearing comments to the effect that the Melbourne and Sydney inner-city polling stations with long lines today are the result of not enough prepoll options in those areas (definitely saw complaints to that effect in the seat of Melbourne last week).
Accurate?
–
It is indeed. I live in Fitzroy (part of the Melbourne seat), and the nearest early voting centre was at Abbotsford Convent, quite a trek away.
Probably explains why the Melbourne stat is only 29.9% to date.
Steve777 @ #988 Saturday, May 3rd, 2025 – 5:47 pm
Should start counting around 8 or 9pm?
On election night, both ordinary ballot papers, and pre-poll ballot papers completed by voters within their division, are counted to first preferences. The AEC also conducts a Two Candidate Preferred (TCP) count of House of Representatives ballot papers on election night, which helps give an indication of th
mj says:
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 5:39 pm
My prediction for tonight:
Labor 80
LNP 50
Greens 5
Others 15
…………………………………………………………
# Me too !