The Australian reports the concluding Newspoll for the campaign has Labor leading 52.5-47.5 on two-party preferred, out from 52-48 a week ago, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34% (down one), Greens 13% (up two) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese is on 42% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), while Peter Dutton is on 32% (down three) and 60% (up one) and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1270.
YouGov has weighed in with its final national poll, conducted last Thursday through to yesterday, which is distinctive even by the standards of recent polling in the weakness of the major party vote: Labor is on 31.1%, down from 33.5% in last week’s regular YouGov poll, with the Coalition on 31.4%, up from 31.0%. The Greens are up from 14.0% to 14.6% and One Nation is down from 10.5% to 8.5%, with independent up from 5.0% to 6.7%, Trumpet of Patriots up from 2.0% to 2.5% and other up from 4.0% to 5.2%. Presumably incorporating data from the latest MRP poll, the preference allocations have been tweaked: Labor’s share from One Nation is down from 33% to 31% (and from 35.7% at the 2022 election), but its independent share is up from 59% to 65% (63.8% in 2022). This pans out to 52.2-47.8 to Labor, in from 53.5-47.8 last week. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 49%; Peter Dutton is down three to 33% and up three to 57%; and Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 50-35 to 51-34. The poll was conducted last Thursday to yesterday from a sample of 3003.
Also out today was a poll was a poll from DemosAU showing Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 33%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 9%. Labor was credited with a two-party lead of 52-48 – whereas in the past this pollster had been using preference flows from the 2022 election, this time the Coalition was credited with the 73% of One Nation preferences they received at the Queensland election last October, which would reduce Labor’s two-party by about 0.7%. The poll had a bumper sample of 4100, lending credibility to state breakdowns recording 50-50 in New South Wales (a Coalition swing of about 1.5%), 53-47 to Labor in Victoria (a Coalition swing of about 2%), 54-46 to the Coalition in Queensland (no swing) and 56-44 to Labor in Western Australia (a Labor swing of about 1%). The poll was conducted from Sunday to Wednesday.
The print editions of the News Corp papers have a final wave of the RedBridge Group-Accent Research tracking poll of 20 marginal seats, in which Labor’s blowout 54.5-45.5 lead over the previous two weeks has moderated to 53-47, implying a swing to Labor of 2%. The accompanying report is light on for detail – nothing on primary votes, field work dates or sample size – but there is likely to be more from a forthcoming online report.
Roy Morgan has a poll with Labor leading 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, unchanged on the poll released on Monday, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 34.5% (steady), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (down one). The two-party result based on 2022 preference flows is 54-46, likewise unchanged. The poll was conducted from Monday through to today from a sample of 1368.
That just leaves the only poll that matters – and BludgerTrack, which ends with Labor’s lead at a new peak of 53.2-47.8, exactly equal to Bob Hawke’s winning margin in 1983. I must stress that this is not at all what I expect to happen, and I will be happy to admit I was wrong if I am proved right, so to speak. The caveats were laid out in yesterday’s post: as well as a tendency of polling over recent years to overstate Labor’s primary vote, BludgerTrack’s application of preference flows from the last election almost undoubtedly flatters Labor, and I will probably come up with something different when I crank the machine up again next term. While I do not believe the more extravagant talk of One Nation flows to the Coalition matching those of the Greens to Labor, I do think YouGov, Newspoll and DemosAU have likely been judicious in bumping up the Coalition’s share from 64.3% to upwards of 70%, and that Labor’s 85.7% share of Greens preferences from 2022 is unlikely to be matched. That should be enough to knock a point off what BludgerTrack is crediting Labor with, which would make tomorrow night all about whether or not Labor can make it to a majority.
Late mail from party sources related via media reports:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reported yesterday that Labor internal polling showed them leading in the Coalition-held seats of Sturt and Bonner, respectively by 53.5-46.5 and 51.5-48.5, and tied in Bass. In rather sharp contrast to talk coming from the Liberal camp, the polling shows Labor holding Whitlam by 56-44 and Gorton by 55-45. Labor is said to lead the Greens by 54.5-45.5 in Wills, where party sources say the Greens are withdrawing resources to focus on their seats in Brisbane. Maiden quotes a Liberal source saying Labor’s expectation of a final seat tally somewhere between 72 and 78 is “credible”.
• A different story emerges from the Liberal sources of The Australian, whose theory of victory involves winning Aston, Gilmore, McEwen, Tangney, Solomon, Paterson, Werriwa, Gorton, Hawke and Bullwinkel from Labor, Goldstein, Curtin and Kooyong from independents and Ryan from the Greens, pushing its seat count into the seventies and giving it the whip hand in cross-bench negotiations over Labor, who would be reduced to 67. The sources invoked went so far as to rate eight gains as definite and ten as likely. Concerns were nonetheless acknowledged about Bradfield and, unusually for such a bullish assessment, Bass and Braddon were “considered too close to call but the Coalition is confident of retaining them” (a bit of cognitive dissonance that might be thought to colour the rest of the assessment). Labor was “also facing neck-and-neck races in Bennelong, Robertson and Lyons”, though why they would be excluded from the list of seats about which the Coalition was “hopeful” if this were so is unclear. Then there is Lingiari, ̶which is considered tough to poll”, and presumably for that reason alone is rated “too close to call”.
Bingo!
Greens surge
Let’s bring it home…
Newspoll – that Green vote seems a bit too high to me, otherwise this looks positive for Labor and Albo.
If Dutton wins tomorrow night, it’ll be another massive 2019 like failure from all the polling companies.
That’s looking like 76-80 seats to Labor for me, if that turns out to be the final result.
Probably going to be a few nailbiters, and some 3-way contests that won’t be cleared up tomorrow though.
List of Coalition figures who I hope lose tomorrow night:
Peter Dutton overall and in Dickson.
Michael Sukkar
Andrew Constance
Lucy Wicks
Tim Wilson
Dan Tehan
The excitement is palpable.
One nation voters less likely to preference Libs as the disgruntled Libs protest vote that lurch are unlikely to give the Libs much love back.
Greens voters highly likely to put Labor 2nd.
I actually think polls have overcorrected pref flows to Libs. This could be a wipeout.
If you’ve backed Labor, get in the queue.
If you’ve backed Dutton get in the far queue.
Kirsdake: Labor in the low 70s at least, 73 or 74 seats, that’d do for me. But something over 76 seats – into more than a few beers this bloke will be.
Kirsdarke:
I’ll take 76 seats and a Labor majority.
76-80 and Dutton to lose his seat
Greens primary up 18% in a week.
Albo was in Dickson again today, Labor internal research must indicate they’ve got a show of knocking off Dutton.
Apart from an ALP win of course….what I would like as a South Aussie is for Labor to win Sturt and kick the Libs out of Metro Adelaide entirely
Oh so close on the final Newspoll at at a combined major primary of 67
Greens in the teens though
I’ll call that 4/7 of the final polls with at least Morgan still to come
Game on folks #25in25
I’d love to see the back of Sukkar.
And Dutton.
The cream on top would be Chris Pyne’s old seat going Labor
@Democracy Sausage – “If Dutton wins tomorrow night, it’ll be another massive 2019 like failure from all the polling companies.”
Far worse.
They’d have to give the game away collectively.
Rex Douglas says:
“Greens primary up 18% in a week.”
————–
Rex, I’m sure that kind of simple arithmetic works in the Greens party room.
“The cream on top would be Chris Pyne’s old seat going Labor”
Yes…..I want to be able to drive the 95 odd Kilometres from Aldinga to Gawler and not have to pass through a single Lib seat
The Coalition primary in the Newspoll is absolutely dreadful, but we’ve had a few results now that low so I don’t see any reason to disbelieve them. Guess I’m figuring result of about 52.5:47.5 in line with the Newspoll and the ALP holding majority government.
78 ALP
56 Coalition
I think I’ve just witnessed the worst Coalition campaign in my lifetime. It’s right up there with Mark Latham’s effort.
JenAuthorsays:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 7:30 pm
I’d love to see the back of Sukkar.
______________________
I have a standing promise to run naked to the end of my street and back if Sukkar loses his seat and I hope it happens.
The higher PHON vote comes at the expense of the LNP primary, hence the higher preference flow. Actually, a loss for the LNP in 2PP terms and some of those PHON preferences would still leak.
Redbridge did their last poll using both 2022 and respondent-based preferences separately. There was no overall change in the 2PP (53-47) between the two methods. PHON did deliver more preferences to the LNP, 73% compared 65% in 2022, but that come from taking primary votes off the LNP and sending them back. Other preferences flows counteracted that and hence, hence the same 53-47 on both methods.
The higher PHON vote comes at the expense of the LNP primary, hence the higher preference flow. Actually, a loss for the LNP in 2PP terms and some of those PHON preferences would still leak.
Redbridge did their last poll using both 2022 and respondent-based preferences separately. There was no overall change in the 2PP (53-47) between the two methods. PHON did deliver more preferences to the LNP, 73% compared 65% in 2022, but that come from taking primary votes off the LNP and sending them back. Other preferences flows counteracted that and hence, hence the same 53-47 on both methods.
Is it too late to lock in my prediction for the pool?
I’ll play it conservative and say:
2PP: 50.7-49.3 to ALP
Seats:
ALP: 73
Coalition: 64
Green: 4
Ind: 9
you could get shot for a prediction like that Wat.
“ Democracy Sausage says:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 7:22 pm
List of Coalition figures who I hope lose tomorrow night:
Peter Dutton overall and in Dickson.
Michael Sukkar
Andrew Constance
Lucy Wicks
Tim Wilson
Dan Tehan”
___
Peter Dutton overall and in Dickson.
Michael Sukkar
Andrew Constance
Lucy Wicks
Tim Wilson
Nicole Flint
Illyn Payne
Cersei
Joffrey
Walder Frey
The Mountain
13% Green vote should be enough to hold QLD seats and also gain Richmond, MacNamara and Wills. That’s 7 of at least 25 in 25.
We would need photographic evidence nath!
I’m mentally preparing myself for Dutton to win a minority with the help of the likes of Dai Le, Broadbent, Gee, Katter and Sharkie.
I don’t think that will happen, but 1% is 1% too high for me to be comfortable. I do however take solace in knowing that the radical crap Dutton wants to push through will not pass the lower house let alone the senate.
My prediction is:
Labor 79
Green 5
L/NP 50
Independent 13
CA 1
KAP 1
WSC 1
52.3-47.7
one last Roy Morgan
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/alp-set-to-win-federal-election-with-an-expanded-majority-alp-53-cf-l-np-47
May 02, 2025
ALP set to win Federal Election with an expanded majority – ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%
The ALP is on track to win the Federal Election with a slightly increased majority with support for the Government firm this week: ALP 53% (up 0.9% from the 2022 Federal Election) leads the L-NP Coalition on 47% (down 0.9%) on a two-party preferred basis, the final Roy Morgan survey for this year’s Federal Election finds.
This result is in line with the Roy Morgan survey released earlier this week showing the ALP holding the same two-party preferred lead.
Primary support for Coalition was unchanged at 34.5% compared to a week ago although ALP support weakened, down 1% to 33%.
Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 13.5% while support for One Nation was down 1% to 6.5%. This is not a ‘direct transfer’ of voting intention but rather indicates movement between the two major parties and the two key minor parties – ‘left’ (Greens), ‘right’ (One Nation).
Importantly, a further 12.5% of electors are opting to support other minor parties and independents, up 1.5% on a week ago. Within that bloc of support the largest support is for so-called ‘Teal Independents’ (3%) and Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ (2%). These results take into account that minor parties and independents are not running in every seat.
So, a record high total of 32.5% of electors plan to vote for a non-major party. This means preference flows could still change the outcome.
Q: Looks like Labor needs the Greens to get them over the line again.
Better than needing Pauline to get you over the line…
2PP: 51.1-48.9 to ALP
Seats:
ALP: 73
Coalition: 61
Green: 3
Ind: 13
Lest we forget, ALP primary is down in Teal seats where ALP is not likely to have a ‘show’ so ppl vote strategically for teals
Spencesays:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 7:43 pm
We would need photographic evidence nath!
_______________
I think I would get permabanned for posting the evidence. but if granted an exemption I will scour the internet for a magnificent specimen and happily pass it off as mine.
Seriously frigin S. Ferguson.. predicating ANY question with the loaded please “debt & deficit ” is nothing short of amateur bullshit..
Evening all,
I’d like Dutton to retain his seat (just) with the LNP being literally smashed out of the park like Geelong will do against Collingwood tomorrow night.
I’m lukewarm on Monique Ryan and have heard mixed messages from folk that she is either reasonably good and works hard or ineffective and not particularly pleasant. That said I would prefer Monique to win Kooyong over Amelia Hamer who has had a shocker of a campaign.
Angus Taylor, Lucy Wicks and Jane Hume being kicked out would also be rather good.
For me the icing on the cake is for Tim Wilson to lose and lose badly against incumbent Zoe Daniel. He is a nasty piece of work.
That said, the LNP are really light on talent regardless who gets the four points tomorrow night.
Oh so close again with the final Morgan at 67.5
Greens on 13.5 though so let’s go with 4.5/8
Any polls still to come?
#25in25
Wow good job spending your five minutes talking about how penny wong bringing the voice back has cut through with latch on and worked its way through the system ya halfwit, pied piper is not a real person
Hard Being Green – as far as I can tell, we have now had all the polls we are going to get.
JenAuthor, agree as would the Greens. At least 25 in 25
I’d like to get William’s election prediction.
If they say “cut through” one more time I’m smashin’ the telly
Wat Tyler @ #21 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 7:40 pm
If I were to be in the prediction game (which I’m not), this is probably where I’d land too.
LABOR 51.9- 48.1
76
60
4
10 Others
From previous thread
”
Confessionssays:
Friday, May 2, 2025 at 5:53 pm
Princeplanet @ #452 Friday, May 2nd, 2025 – 5:49 pm
If things really go awry for the LNP / Libs and PD loses his seat ( I’m not confident he will) it will be because of his insensitive moving to Kirribilli comments. His comments really struck a bum note with many up here especially in his electorate where it’s well remembered about his attempt to jump ship to the Gold Coast ( where even the homeless vote LNP). Sydney is even glitzier than the GC and the good burghers of Dickson should be well pissed.
Did his absence during the cyclone aftermath not resonate with Qlders? If he was a WA based MP it def would’ve!
”
The reason it might not have resonated
1. QLD is one print newspaper state owned by Murdoch. So it might not have been spread far and wide.
2. QLDers are possessive (some say parochial) about their federal politicians and sports teams
3. All the leaders of opposition such Dutton, Littleproud, Hanson, Palmer, Rennick are from QLD. So it tells the nature of most of QLDers.
Some more phrases to add to the PB drinking game tomorrow evening:
“Look, the reality is…”
“Things are too early to call at the moment…”
“The voters have spoken…”
“The Trump effect has had no effect on our result…”
“I reluctantly stand down as leader and wish to announce my resignation effective immediately as the MP for…”
“Look, I think the voters don’t understand the bigger picture here which is disappointing…”
“Look, we didn’t manage to cut through effectively to the battlers and mums and dads and families doing it tough…”
Wasn’t hugely impressed by Amelia Hamer in a couple of interviews. ‘Prue and Trude’ types tho were fawning over her.
Thanks Leroy
I’ll have at crack at a summary shortly, hopefully the formatting doesn’t screw up to badly
Omar Comin’ (7.59pm)
I think “cut through” should be awarded the phrase of the year.
Please don’t smash your television.
🙂
7:30 Report A. Green speaking of Labor drop in pre polls being the norm.. I predict as pre poll being more common as time goes on this is less relevant.. ie if preroll was 100% of te vote would that reduce the Labor vote..NO!
Duttons desperation in focusing on his issues while holding a bowser hose is the biggest error in Australian political history after the cake campaign
A predicted 80 seats labor 2 weeks ago.. I still hold with that….