Last night’s Sky News People’s Forum, which can be viewed in full here, was deemed by 44 out of a hand-picked audience of 100 undecided voters to have been won by Anthony Albanese, with 35 favouring Peter Dutton and 21 undecided. I suspect though that to the extent that the broader public notices the low-rating event at all, what’s most likely to filter through is that Peter Dutton performed creditably immediately after learning that his father had suffered a heart attack. The event was conducted at Wentworthville Leagues Club in the electorate of Parramatta, a culturally diverse electorate notable particularly for its Indian population, which seemed suitably well represented.
The next debate, to be held from 8pm next Wednesday, will assuredly reach a larger audience by virtue of being broadcast free-to-air by the ABC. It too will be held in Parramatta, that being the location of the ABC’s new studios, though that’s of no great consequence as it will not follow the town hall format of the “People’s Forum”. Whether any further debates are held later in the game remains to be determined.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 at 9:12 pm
Xi will not come to the White House on his hands and knees to ‘negotiate’ with Trump about his poxy tariffs. You can take that to the bank.
================================================
While the Chinese economy can function without any U.S. imports, I have serious doubts that the U.S. economy can do the same without Chinese imports. It is going to be a disaster there for quite a while until replacement supply chain products are sourced.
At this rate we’re probably going to be dealing with full-on Embargoes by May.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 at 9:12 pm
Xi will not come to the White House on his hands and knees to ‘negotiate’ with Trump about his poxy tariffs. You can take that to the bank.
”
C@tmomma
Yes. Especially after Trump publicly said world leaders wants to kick his ass.
Will Trump now increase the Tariffs on China to more than 150%
Don’t listen to Centre, listen to the Money Men who actually know how to read an election properly:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trump-fears-fuel-money-surge-to-albanese-as-dutton-taps-melbourne-elite-20250409-p5lqc6.html
Centre likes to pick losers. 😐
The ball is in Australia’s court because we loaded up our bet with China via federal Labor government going all in with them again.
We will get the bat shoved up our arses.No wonder labor is meeting with reserve bank !
Events have taken over the election libs need to smash labors China hook up.
Major bond sales today and tomorrow results could smash markets.
Bloomberg live and free on YouTube -under surveillance cool dude Jonathon host.
Xi Jinping has said that he will go tariffs to tariffs with the US to the end.
Looks like they won’t be trading with each other soon. It’s going to open up some new markets. Musk could be in trouble lol
China on Wednesday said it would increase its reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods to 84% from 34% previously, amid a deepening trade war between the world’s two largest economies
“Ultimately, if the US Treasury market doesn’t function, we have issues,” wrote Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities. “You can’t have 10-year yields move over 60-basis points in the blink of an eye and think you have a functioning market. Would love to think there’s an adult in the room somewhere. This is a different type of crisis. A very complicated one.”
Settle down Quentin. It’s going to be alright!
I’m very confident!
Been there, Nath is trying to distract attention away from the fact that we now know that it was infact him -not entropy- assumed to have been the last person seen with LVT since his suspicious disappearance.
Apparently nath’s subway loyalty card was recovered from a crease in the back seat of LVT’s 2007 extended wheelbase S class which was abandoned on a side street near st James station in Sydney
Entropy – I can see quite a lot of America’s industry seizing up. There might be shortages of things you don’t really think about – Screws, Washers, Plastic bottles, etc. I am just guessing what there will be shortages of but you could see problems if for example, bottle lids go missing.
AUD dropped back from 60.45 to below 60 again.
Microsoft has become the world’s largest company again as Apple is getting flogged.
Whilst you are all watching SkyNews I am watching Bloomberg.
Entropy and Ven,
I just watched a video where an expert analysed how Trump’s tariff’s will effect the cost of an iPhone. They will go from USD $799 to USD $3500! And that’s with only 10% of the phone’s construction coming back into the US:
https://youtu.be/IUm_DwTZ2hw?si=QBMPLSicVkFp7z65
“@At this rate we’re probably going to be dealing with full-on Embargoes by May ”
104% tariff might as well be.
The PRC Central Committee don’t face election pressures and traditionally gives no shits about putting their people through privations for the sake of political goals. That’s not true of Republican congressmen and Senators facing unhappy constituents and it is not true of billionaires who are going to lose billions of dollars over this.
I know who I’d back to blink first.
Musk openly at war with Navarro already is very telling. There is zero patience from the billionaire clique on the tariffs. They don’t want the tariffs gone in 6 months, they want them gone yesterday, so now we find out how much Trump just uses the billionaires to do the bidding of Buddy Putin and how much pull they actually have. I suspect the answer is they have way less pull than they thought, but by jingo they’re going to fucking try and buy some more.
”
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 at 8:59 pm
Observation from the LGM blog.
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/04/hooked-on-a-feeling
The outcome of yesterday’s meeting between Trump and Netanyahu is probably the worst economic news so far.
1. Prior to the effective date of The Tariffs*, Israel offered the US across-the-board zero tariff rates. (Now, Israel’s average effective tariff rate on US exports is in the 1-2% range, but that’s neither here nor there.) Trump refused and imposed tariffs on Israel on schedule.
2. Immediately after the imposition of The Tariffs, Netanyahu requested an immediate personal meeting with Donald Trump. His request was granted. Now, this is the stuff Trump loves. A world leader “begging” for a meeting! A chance to have a “negotiation!” Face-to-face! Two men in a room! The White House scheduled a press conference following the meeting, presumably expecting to have something Very Beautiful to announce.
3. The meeting happened.
4. The White House cancelled the press conference, opting instead for a brief joint appearance from the Oval.
5. The only “agreement” announced was Netanyahu “agreeing” to do something about Israel’s trade surplus with the United States. The tariffs remain in place. (Also, Iran bad.)
”
Kirsdarke
By publicly saying that International leaders “kissing my ass… dying to make a deal” , Trump has publicly humiliated Netanyahu (I have no problem with that) for his visit to meet Trump.
Ven
“Dewey Defeats Truman”
In 1993 I was in regional Victoria and got the ‘country’ version of the Sunday Herald (or Herald-Sun maybe by then)
The headline was “Keating in a Photo Finish”.
But I found out later that the earlier version (presumably on the trucks / trains to farthest reaches of Victoria) had the headline as “Hewson in a Photo Finish”
I wish I had a copy – they’d make a great pair as a poster in the wall.
(I also kept The Sunday Age from the day after the 1996 Victorian election – headline
“Kennett takes Coalition past 2000”
I just had an inkling that headline may come unstuck!
“B. S. Fairman says:
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 at 9:06 pm
Breaking: China has just slapped 84% tariffs on US goods.
AUD has copped a whack.”
What we now know is that China is fully prepared to outlast Trump in this ridiculous game of one-upmanship. The collateral damage around the world will be immense. All the pressure is now on Trump but will he face reality or maintain his delusion that he can “make America great again”? Or will the crowd of sycophants surrounding him do something to bring him back to reality?
Remind me Centre.
Who brought this situation on?
Cat
The higher these tariffs go the more stock prices of companies like Apple will be torched.
Elon Musk has a big factory in Shanghai. Tesla stocks will tank.
Centresays:
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 at 9:20 pm
Xi Jinping has said that he will go tariffs to tariffs with the US to the end.
Looks like they won’t be trading with each other soon. It’s going to open up some new markets. Musk could be in trouble lol
=======================================================
The entire USA manufacturing sector and building sector are in trouble. Does the USA produce anything that doesn’t have some Chinese components in it? Even their military supply chains rely on Chinese-manufactured components.
https://thehill.com/opinion/5090860-us-china-trade-war-impact/
“Microsoft has become the world’s largest company again as Apple is getting flogged.”
Steve Ballmer is somewhere now pretending that botching Microsoft’s attempts to compete in the market for phones and other devices and ensuring Microsoft remained essentially a software company was a totally intentional long term risk management strategy.
That Apple is being cooked (pun intended) despite Tim Cook sucking up to Trump like crazy is hilarious. I think it’s great that this whole tariff thing is so batshit ideological that Trump doesn’t give a shit that he’s toasting all these sycophants who thought they were earning special treatment (that goes for certain countries as well as individuals and corporations).
Netenyahu went to Trump and got nothing.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/middleeast/analysis-netanyahu-trump-tariffs-iran-intl-latam/index.html
Imagine Angus and Dutton having a go…
So it turns out that the key product is likely to be HDPE – High-Density Polyethylene. Everyone makes it but China makes just that much more than everyone else. Think plastic jugs, plastic car parts, cable insultation, etc. There is simply not going to be enough manufacturing capacity in America to deal with their shortfall if China is cut off.
104% is not an embargo however – If as one US importer was saying if he had to source some of his imports from China in America they would cost 500% more.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 at 9:24 pm
Entropy – I can see quite a lot of America’s industry seizing up. There might be shortages of things you don’t really think about – Screws, Washers, Plastic bottles, etc. I am just guessing what there will be shortages of but you could see problems if for example, bottle lids go missing.
================================================
I suspect that if Chinese imports completely stopped coming here, many of the aisles in Bunnings (and other hardware stores ) would be very empty.
Should we impose a surcharge on China for our iron ore?
We need to pay back Socialist Red Labor debt one way or another 🙂
*night
Soc,
The number of Tesla plants in China making the bits for his cars is likely equivalent to the number of Apple plants in China. You should take a squizz at that video I put up @ 9.24pm, it will open your eyes to the reality. Basically, Trump is lying his ass off about the benefits to America of his tariffs, as if we didn’t know that already.
Proud to say this household sacked Foxtel 25 years ago.
And just recently we got rid of Apple, Prime, Paramount, and Disney. Kept Netflix ’cause Her Indoors is addicted to Korean soap operas, each of which is about 50 episodes of the same story: handsome rich young man who has trouble expressing his emotions, meets surgically rounded, quirky young female office assistant, with inevitable romantic outcome.
Saved about $800 a year, and eff’d off those bum-licking billionaires. Told ’em why, too, in detail.
All Netenyahu could have got was 17% down to 10%. The 10% base tariff is on everyone and that looks like it is going to stay as it is an indirect sales tax that doesn’t need to pass Congress. Ergo, Australia has zero chance of going lower.
Centre,
You do know that no one takes you seriously, don’t you?
Cat mama don’t be mean to Centre liberals weren’t in a good position kept using the betting markets that they were going to win
I’ve saved much more than $800/year.
Never subscribed to any Murdoch offering. Never subscribed to a Streaming service. I’d rather not pay to be brainwashed. Or dumbed down.
I buy a bit from the US but I’ll give it a miss for a while: 1 AUD = 0.599630 USD.
And the reason’s clear why Musk thinks former gaol-bird Navarro’s a moron. Musk, if he’s still on good terms with Trump, would be seeking Navarro’s sacking. The cracks are starting to appear at Emperor Trump’s Court.
@c@t – c’mon, be nice.
There’s at least one person who takes him seriously.
Prior engagements prevented me from watching the entirety of last night’s leader ‘debate’. I wish I had after a brief curating of some of the uploads.
Say what you want about Dutton-
Any one that can keep a straight face while saying that the nuclear power wedge is sound and costed policy because
‘the total costs are spread over 80-100 years which is the lifespan of the reactors and as a result guaranteeing our power security for generations”
lol . I’m pretty sure if there is any sort of functioning human society left in a century they’d surely have mastered zero point tech. Either through innovation of the odd gimmie gifted by one of the many NHIs that inhabits the universe.
You’ve come along way baby in economic policy . The party of prudent financial management prosecuting the wonders of a costing so large that it’s been spread and built into revenue and budget projections over the next 100 years.
Could Dutton’s campaign be the worst showing by an opposition since federation ? … the Magna Carta?…
Storyline for a movie in a few years – the Pennsylvania shooter was actually sent from the future to try and prevent the Greater Depression of the 2020’s
Quentin Rountree,
Are you trying to say that we should just sit around and let Centre say crap like We need to pay back Socialist Red Labor debt one way or another?
I’m sorry but I can’t take that sort of thing seriously, nor do I think it’s appropriate because it’s just not true.
United States Exports to China Value
Electrical, electronic equipment $15.28B
Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products $14.73B
Oil seed, soybeans, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruits $13.35B
Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers $12.86B
Aircraft, spacecraft $11.54B
Optical, photo, technical, medical apparatus $11.22B
Pharmaceutical products $9.50B
Plastics $7.45B
Vehicles other than railway, tramway $6.39B
Organic chemicals $3.98B
Top 5 states: US-China Business Council 2023 5 US Exports to China
Top goods exporters to China by state, 2022
1. Texas $21.8b
2. California $17.7b
3. Oregon $8.2b
4. Illinois $6.6b
5. North Carolina $6.5b
A couple of days ago I heard a story of how Trump, in his first term, was wanting to find an economics expert who’s views on tariffing coincided with his. He asked Jared Kushner to look into it, I guess being lazy he just trawled Amazon for economics writers that might fit the bill and came up with one ‘expert’ that extolled the virtues of the tariff. His name was Ron Vara and it turns out Ron Vara is a pseudonym used by the utterly inexpert Peter Navarro. But, Trump being Trump, Navarro has gained his ear and is currently at least partly behind the persuance of these insane tariffs. God help the USA……….
(Maybe this tale is common knowledge here?)
jt1983,
😉
Mavis – Navarro is far closer to Trump than Musk. Navarro was recruited by Trump because he was telling him exactly what he wanted to hear – He has always been an isolationist and spoke about Tariffs a decade ago.
Musk is a wannabe and he is more of a useful idiot who can be sacked when something DOGE does goes wrong.
Bowen at 19% . He looks gone if accurate. What a ripper.
I’ve unsubscribed from Netflix back in March. The last straw was them taking down The Windsors.
Honestly there’s way better content available for free on Youtube, just as long as you can navigate their garbage search algorithms.
I would love to see China no longer making things primarily for the US market. Then I wouldn’t need to put up with builder’s hardware (screws, drill bits, tape measures etc) in the old imperial units as well as in metric units.
Cat
Thanks I don’t doubt Tesla has more exposure. No wonder Elon was angry. He has been cut loose.
That being said, the whole US economy will suffer from this, badly.
Paul Krugman talks about tariffs and their effects in this video. He is pessimistic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hu9q49gBwVU
And here on Substack.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-cost-of-chaos-this-is-getting
Looks like Texas is going to feel the pinch. That might make the Mid Terms interesting. That is, if they have the Mid Terms. James Carville thinks Trump will try and find a way not to:
https://youtu.be/4y3ge67Gk74?si=SbK-Tng8d0B4FFjT
Soc,
Trump is spinning a Manufacturing Revival fantasy. As a salesman, that’s what he’s good at but the reality is going to be a hell of a lot different.
Compass is not a reputable pollster and the numbers in that McMahon poll are obviously absurd.
”
Socratessays:
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 at 9:30 pm
Cat
The higher these tariffs go the more stock prices of companies like Apple will be torched.
Elon Musk has a big factory in Shanghai. Tesla stocks will tank.
”
Socrates
Here is an interesting story for our PBers
During the last year’s Indian May federal election, Musk asked Modi for a meet. Modi agreed.
But suddenly at the last minute, dropped that meet during Indian election campaign and went and met Xi in China. As per reports, Xi agreed for Musk to start a new company in China. After that meeting with Xi, Musk completely dropped his plan to meet Modi and met him momentarily in WH when Modi met Trump 2.0 in February 2025.
Now Musk is in deep shit.
Centre @ #584 Wednesday, April 9th, 2025 – 8:51 pm
Oooh! So powerful. So well reasoned and factually based.
I have always held the view Based on nil knowledge of the greenhouse effect, its physical cause, and its essential role in making the earth habitable at all. As I said, a pea-brain, with a pitifully low ability to analyse anything.
FMD- Dutton saying a nuclear power station has a life up to 100 years- they have only existed for about 70 years!!!
And they need complete rebuilds every 15 or so years….which I am sure he hasnt costed in.
michaelsays:
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 at 9:47 pm
Bowen at 19% . He looks gone if accurate. What a ripper.
====================================================
If you believe that, i have bridge to sell you. Otherwise why not bet against Bowen who is at 1.04 for the win. So odds of anyone else must be pretty high.
The next wave of losses will be when heavily indebted firms end up with stock prices that prevent them getting finance.
Then come the bankruptcies.
Krugman thinks that in terms of numbers the effect of the tariffs on USA will be significantly worse than the impact of Brexit on UK.
Can we get that “strategic oil reserve” back from the USA now?