The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s headline two-party lead out from 53-47 to 53.5-46.5, in a result otherwise distinguished by a two-point drop in the Coalition primary vote to 33%, its weakest result in the series since June 2023. Labor, the Greens and One Nation are all up half a point, to 32.5%, 13.5% and 6% respectively, with independents down one-and-a-half to 9% and others up two to 6% (from which are told the Trumpet of Patriots component provides 1.5%). The two-party measure based on 2022 election flows has Labor’s lead out from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1481.
Other developments:
• The Liberal Party has dumped its candidate for the Illawarra seat of Whitlam, Benjamin Britton, and replaced him with Nathaniel Smith, who held the state seat of Wollondilly from 2019 until his defeat by independent Judy Hannan in 2023. At issue was Britton’s record as a commentator on right-wing podcasts, specifically his view that women should be removed from combat roles in the military. The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column characterises Britton’s dumping as “the final nail in the coffin for the Trump-loving faction of the NSW Liberals, associated with Matt Camenzuli … now running as an independent against Labor’s Chris Bowen in McMahon”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Scott Yung, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong, warmly addressed Xie Xiongming, a “casino high-roller linked to the Chinese Communist Party”, at a Lunar New Year event in January after previously claiming no association with him. Last week it was reported Yung failed to disclose his engagement of a digital marketing agency to target Chinese language websites during his campaign for the state seat of Kogarah in 2019. In March, it was reported that Yung boasted on his candidate nomination form of having raised $60,000 through a fundraiser during his 2019 campaign, despite no disclosure to that effect having been lodged.
• The two leaders will participate in a “people’s forum” from 7:30pm this evening, conducted in western Sydney by Sky News and the Daily Telegraph. Some measure of determining a winner will be employed, presumably involving the verdict of a panel of swinging voters. The ABC will host a debate at 8pm next Wednesday, to be moderated by Insiders host David Speers.
• Both parties will conduct campaign launches on Sunday, Labor’s being held for the second successive election in Perth, emphasising Western Australia’s importance in the government’s calculations. The location of the Liberal launch is yet to be disclosed.
The polling swing in Canada is going so hard that even the Conservative-leaning Innovative Research poll is putting the Liberals in the lead.
https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/CTM-2504-Wave-1-Federal-Election-Deck-Public-Release-2025-04-07.pdf
Liberal: 41% (+4)
Conservative: 35% (-3)
NDP: 12% (0)
BQ: 6% (0)
Green: 3% (0)
PP: 0% (-2)
Other: 3% (+2)
The not as regressive as the other mob vote is back to about 60%, same as the last election. But has coalesced on the Libs. The ‘not Libs, but not-regressive vote ‘ is way down rather than the bad guys dropping much.
“BSA Bobsays:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 10:16 pm
Re Wayne
Last federal election, wasn’t there some git who’d post short “Our glorious coalition will increase its majority” sort of stuff on a regular basis? Can’t remember the name. Is Wayne that person?”
Wayne was indeed his name. And oddly enough Wayne was the only one on this site who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2019 election!
New thread.
Market Summary
>
S&P 500
4,941.68
−120.57 (2.38%)today
8 Apr, 15:37 GMT-4 • Disclaimer
Stocks weaker in the US as Trump restates tariff threats in relation to imports from China.
Trump is probably explaining how he expects Peter Dutton to deal with him if/when he becomes PM…
Washington: The US is “running up the score” by hitting Australia with tariffs despite already enjoying a trade surplus with the country, Donald Trump’s trade chief says, in comments likely to inflame tensions over the president’s decision to include close allies in his sweeping tariff program.
The comments came as Trump boasted other countries were ringing up and offering to “do anything” to escape the tariffs. “I’m telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are. They’re dying to make a deal,” he told a Republican Party black tie dinner in Washington.
“Please, sir, make a deal,” he said in a tone mocking other world leaders. “I’ll do anything, I’ll do anything, sir.”
Trump also hit out at what he called “shrill voices” criticising his tariffs, labelling them “scoundrels and frauds” who did not care about the US losing manufacturing jobs due to globalisation.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-trade-chief-admits-us-running-up-the-score-with-tariffs-on-australia-20250409-p5lqap.html