The Herald Sun today brings a RedBridge Group poll of state voting intention in Victoria (only in the print edition to this point) that is better for the Labor government than some it experienced recently, putting its two-party deficit at 51-49. The primary votes are Labor 29%, Coalition 41%, Greens 13% and others 17%. Personal ratings are less reassuring for Jacinta Allan, with 16% viewing her favourably, 24% neutrally and 51% unfavourably. Liberal leader Brad Battin is at 18% favourable, 27% neutral and 16% unfavourable. A striking 64% said the state government’s performance would influence their federal vote, with only 21% saying it wouldn’t. Further questions suggest the government’s major problem is crime (53% rate its crackdowns on machete crime and bail law changes too lenient) rather than the Suburban Rail Loop (supported by 46% and opposed by 29%, with 18% neutral). The poll was conducted March 24 to April 2 from a sample of 2013.
UPDATE: Herald Sun report here, and further detail from Kos Samaras or RedBridge Group here.
Looking forward to Liberals campaigning against SRL in all the electorates between Cheltenham and Box Hill.
Interestingly at work in Ringwood recently I heard someone supporting SRL who I was surprised by. They just saw it as a necessary long term investment in a growing city.
There is plenty of ammo in the chamber for Jacinta.
The Metro Tunnel & the Westgate Tunnel openings.
I still think the Liberals would have to fall in a heap to lose this election. There’s a lot of it’s time vibe…
The question is what do they have planned to actually deliver?
The advantage that Labor had was that they started small in scale and gained wins and trust along the way with level crossing removals.
So the Crime scare campaign driven by the main stream media is having an effect.
Crime mainly caused by fewer individuals, individuals poorly handled because the resources they need to direct these individuals away from crime have not been funded.
And other crime (theft) increasing because of the neoliberal hellscape we currently inhabit. What do you expect when people do not have a safe place to live or guaranteed access to food?
Raise the dole and a lot of crime disappears.
That primary vote is a big improvement from the 22 they got in the last Resolve state poll. I think realistically, that last poll with a 22 primary vote was sitting right around the bottom end of the MoE and it was never that low. It always seemed like an outlier as I think Labor’s “floor” would be around 25%.
The most encouraging thing for me out of this poll though was the support for the SRL.
As someone who places a huge priority on urban planning, walkable cities, public transport and eliminating car dependency – probably moreso than anything else – my biggest concern has been that the SRL will be scrapped due to pressure from the media, opposition and a sense that it’s unpopular.
Given it still has net +17 support despite an absolutely relentless campaign against it from all corners of the media, this would surely be encouraging for Labor to stick to their guns.
Given the campaign against Jacinta, the SRL and the ALP generally, this result is astoundingly good for them.
And all this while one member of the LNP is trying to bankrupt her former leader. Battin’s supporters want to impose South Gilead on Victorians and they have faced no scrutiny.
More poll info leaking out via the Samaras “X” feed.
I’d say that eastern suburbs primary for the Libs means that there probably aren’t too many in the east concerned about the fate of the S.R.L. (Eastern section)
Link: https://x.com/KosSamaras/status/1910098062107938849?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Significant primary for the Greens in the inner suburbs, almost overtaking the Libs.
Fed implications: Gosh. If, as WB/Herald Sun says, 64% of voters say that state politics will have an impact on their federal vote…..I’d say Chisholm, Aston, Monash, Dunkley will flip Lib quickly on election night. Possibly McEwen given the Libs are “topping the primary” in the outer north/west. Don’t think Hawke will though. Don’t think Bruce in the outer south-east will either. Looks like zero possibility of Menzies flipping to Labor.
Greens vote very strong inner city. I’d say Wills will flip Green. Macnamara; they must be in with a good shot. Maribyrnong may be a bridge to far. Really depends where that 23% primary vote lies exactly. New ALP candidate in Maribyrnong. Greens might be in for a shot there too come to think of it.
Cooper; unlikely Green pick up. The northern end is “ruby red” Labor turf.
Going to be a fascinating fed election in Victoria.
The Redbridge state result is slightly better for Labor than the TPP & primary on the recent Demos poll at the state level (on page 2 of the PDF), which in turn was better than the previous Resolve.
https://demosau.com/news/victorian-poll/
https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/DemosAU-Victoria-VI-Poll-Mar-17-21-2025-2.pdf
Fairly good numbers for Labor here. However, they’d be hoping that the Metro and West Gate Tunnels open smoothly this year and that brings up their primary vote to at least 30%.
When projects go on for too long that really does annoy people to the point that they don’t think rationally about it.
The Crime issue was the issue that was causing the bleeding more than anything else. It just looked like the government didn’t care and had no empathy for the victims. And meanwhile the kids were getting bail so quickly that they were free to commit crimes whilst ink on their paperwork was drying.
But once that Resolve poll came out, the government’s tone changed. Suddenly there was concern and the move to change the bail law was set in motion.
But whether the move came to late to change opinion on the issue is yet to be seen.
Great to public support for SRL despite the media and shortsighted infrastructure experts who think public transport is below them.
Their monotonous mantra that *no-one wants to travel from Cheltenham to Box Hill* is simplistic and pathetic.
Premier Allen should emphasise;
1. reduced congestion; as that’s all many drivers seem to care about.
2. improved access to jobs, and medical, educational, retail facilities.
3. environmental benefits.
4. long term planning for population growth and
5. improved quality of life for a city under seige by traffic. This grand project will free up roads for efficient business and emergency access.
Metro Rail gives Premier Allen the chance to reset. She should rename the SRL The Great Rail and go on the offensive about its much needed benefits.
Problem for Allan is the -35 personal rating. That’s just terrible. Not sure what it is, but she is rubbing people the wrong way. Lost control of the narrative and hostage to events.
51-49 can be turned around but not with a toxic leader.
*no-one wants to travel from Cheltenham to Box Hill*
Ever tried driving on Springvale Rd, Blackburn Rd, Westall Rd, Clayton/Middleborough Rd or Warrigal Rd during the morning peak?
51-49% TPP may not be enough for a change of goverment. The Coalition will need about 53% TPP to be confident especially if Labor can sandbag the right seats and let much of the swing be wasted in the wrong places. I think if Labor can get around 30-31% primary vote that maybe enough to get a minority government with the Greens.