The Australian reports a new result for Newspoll, which we can presumably expect to report on a weekly basis through the campaign period (and to do so earlier in the day than we’re accustomed to). It’s another encouraging result for Labor, who now lead 52-48 on two-party preferred, out from 51-49 last week (and from 51-49 in the Coalition’s favour in the previous poll from four weeks ago). Labor’s primary vote is steady at 33%, with the Coalition down one to 36%, the Greens steady on 12% and One Nation up one to 7%. Peter Dutton nonetheless narrows his deficit on preferred prime minister from 49-38 to 48-40. Personal ratings are little changed: Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 42% and up one on disapproval to 53%, Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 55%.
Also included are questions on the leaders’ attributes which I may get around to analysing in detail later. As is usually the way with these things, they look to have moved largely in lockstep with their broader personal ratings, with Albanese recording improved results since the questions were last asked in December and Dutton little changed. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1250.
UPDATE: The News Corp papers have further results from the weekend’s RedBridge Group poll showing Jacqui Lambie with a net approval rating of minus 1, notable as being the best result out of Anthony Albanese (minus 4), Peter Dutton (minus 15), Adam Bandt, Simon Holmes a Court, Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer.
Dr Doolittle says Monday, April 7, 2025 at 11:55 pm
By coincident I was listening to NENA | 99 Luftballons (Live 2018) (HD) as I was reading this.
Dutton dumping work from home was never going to work. Even the Minns Labor government hasn’t entirely dumped work from home.
The requirement of the Minns Government is that “Government Sector employees should work principally in an approved office, workplace or related work site.”
In practise this means public servants need to work more days than not from an office, but that office need not be their office, but just a workplace that has been approved. This month there are 19 working days. Working 10 from an approved workplace and 9 at home would meet the requirements.
For the most part, the Minns policy means staff go into an office three days per week. Dutton wanted people in their office five days a week. Same same but different
Trump just getting more stupid. If China doesnt drop their 34% tariff on the US, Trump will impose an additional 50% tariff on top by April 9th. That will be 104% tariffs on China.
He wont win against China thats for sure.
ASX futures down another 100 pts later today.
I’m glad I don’t live in Gaza.
Israeli soldiers reveal systematic destruction of Palestinian property to create Gaza buffer zone: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/07/middleeast/israel-gaza-buffer-zone-troops-intl/index.html
Palestinian man tortured to death by Hamas militants after criticizing group and attending protests, family says: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/01/middleeast/uday-rabie-palestinian-tortured-hamas-intl-latam/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
Trump looks like he is rusting away.
NYT..
Mr. Dimon wrote. Inflation was already a worry, Mr. Dimon said, pointing to a yawning fiscal deficit and the need for more infrastructure spending. And stock valuations remain well above historical averages, — even after the recent market sell-off….
So he’s saying shares are over valued & therefore should fall? … inflation & recession are also therefore investable & to be expected… Huston we have a problem..
steve davis says:
Tuesday, April 8, 2025 at 1:27 am
Trump just getting more stupid. If China doesnt drop their 34% tariff on the US, Trump will impose an additional 50% tariff on top by April 9th. That will be 104% tariffs on China.
He wont win against China thats for sure.
So Trump will increase the taxes imposed on the US economy in response to taxes imposed by China on its economy.
Such rank stupidity.
China can very probably re-direct its purchases away from the US. The US, meantime, will take much longer to redirect its purchases to other economies…economies whose exports to the US in any case also attract punitive tariffs.
Trump is going to tax both the Continental and the Extra-Continental departments of the US economy into profound contraction. He is a complete moron.
Real wages, production, consumption, savings, investment, employment…these are all to be hammered for no reason whatsoever by the imbecile.
“Movement very quickly. Trump maybe paused his tariffs for 90 days except for China. ”
Turns out some rando on twitter with a paid blue check tweeted about a 90 pause based on an generous (ie, wrong) interpretation of a tv interview from a trump booster.
It took 5 minutes to go around the world and bump the market, and only 5 more before the market crashed back down again after realising it was bullshit.
Clownworld.
From CNBC…
S&P 500 losses approaching Great Depression record
If the S&P 500 ends at least 4% lower Monday — which would mark its third straight day of a losses of 4% or greater — this would mark the first time since the Great Depression in 1933 it has notched such large back-to-back consecutive losses, according to the Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick.
This would also be only the third time in history the broad market index has finished 4% or lower for three straight days, all of which were during the Great Depression.
Is Trump dialing up a depression?
Possibly. He has certainly already induced a covid-sized shock for the global economy. If retaliatory tariffs take hold the proverbial really will hit the fan.
Trump has – at least polemically – also brought the credit of the US into question. We are seeing a run on equities. We are seeing flight from USD proxies – from key commodities. If we start to see flight from Treasuries and the dollar itself then all bets will be off.
If the very large non-US economies start to refuse USD in settlement of US-originated purchases – for the settling of transactions – there will be chaos. Absolute chaos. If, say, as a result of Trump’s stupidity, the European economies insist on purchasing oil with Euros, if the suppliers of manufactures to the US require settlements in currencies other than the USD, then the US financial/monetary order will have to adjust. The USD will lose its unquestioned reserve status. This is not yet on the cards…but wait and see.
I’m in the UK now. I’m mindful that this country was once an imperial powerhouse but is no longer a monetary fortress. I can recall the collapse of Sterling in 1992. I can recall the massive decline in the USD that followed the abolition of the gold fix by Nixon and the upheaval this caused.
Maybe another such a run lies ahead for the USD.
New thread.
From The Guardian
BlackRock CEO says US ‘probably in a recession’
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said at an event this afternoon that most CEOs he talks to “would say we are probably in a recession now”.
Fink said one CEO said the airline industry – which cut 2025 forecasts due to falling demand – tends to be a canary in the coal mine for a recession. He also said that he’s concerned about elevated inflation.
A recession is technically when gross domestic product (GDP) goes down for two consecutive quarters, but is generally used to describe a major contraction in the economy.
It’s taken Trump less than 3 months to bring on a recession in an economy that had hitherto been growing quite firmly. He is an absolute imbecile. Tens of millions of ordinary people will suffer unnecessarily because of his arrogance and his stupidity.
Donald Trump has dialled up his global trade war another notch, threatening to impose additional tariffs on China of 50 per cent – effective from Wednesday April 9 (Thursday April 10 AEDT) – unless Beijing withdraws its retaliatory 34 per cent levy on US goods.
The threat of escalation comes amid fresh modelling from leading Australian economist Warwick McKibbin showing that Trump’s April 2 Liberation Day announcement – when coupled with global retaliation – would result in US inflation running 2.8 per cent higher than otherwise in 2025.
After cracking the figures, the McKibbin model shows that, in the event of global retaliation, American GDP would take a major hit. US real GDP in 2026 would be 2.2 per cent less than in a world with no Liberation Day tariffs.
US GDP would also remain suppressed over the long-term. Compared to a scenario with no reciprocal tariffs, global retaliation against America would result in US GDP being 0.6 per cent less than otherwise by 2040.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/trump-proposes-additional-50-per-cent-tariff-on-beijing/news-story/905dbad18e0945cd4d04613410a66de4?amp