Victorian by-elections and Resolve Strategic poll

As two state by-elections loom, a new poll finds support for state Labor in Victoria plunging to historic lows.

The Age today leads with a startling Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic, though it requires a note of caution in that the sample is 559, giving it a larger than normal error margin upwards of 4%. (UPDATE: It turns out that 559 refers only refers to the preferred premier question, and that the voting intention results, as usual, combine two monthly polling surveys with an overall sample size of 1124 and a typical error margin of around 3%). The usual practice of Nine Newspapers is to produce state results for New South Wales and Victoria in alternating months using the samples from those states in the monthly national polls, but on this occasion it was evidently decided to dispense with the earlier polling period as it was conducted before Brad Battin replaced John Pesutto as Liberal leader.

The poll finds Labor plunging six points from an already weak position to 22%, with the Coalition up four to 42% and the Greens steady on 13% (the same sample of respondents in the federal poll published earlier this week had Labor at 25%, the Coalition at 38% and the Greens at 13%) (UPDATE: Make that half the same sample). Brad Battin debuts with a 37-27 lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier, compared with a 30-29 lead for John Pesutto in the November result. Twenty-eight per cent rated themselves more likely to vote Liberal after the leadership change compared with 11% for less likely, while 11% rated themselves more likely and 18% less likely to vote Labor on account of the rather less newsworthy fact of former Treasurer Tim Pallas’s retirement.

On that subject, I have guides up for the February 8 by-elections in Prahran and Pallas’s seat of Werribee. The ballot paper draw in Prahran was conducted last week, while Werribee’s will be held later today. Regarding Prahran, Antony Green points to the fact that Tony Lupton, who held the seat for Labor from 2002 to 2010 and is now running as an independent, has a how-to-vote card recommending the Liberals be put ahead of the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

156 comments on “Victorian by-elections and Resolve Strategic poll”

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  1. Trent,

    An interesting explanation of why it might be useful, I hadn’t thought of it as an engagement indicator.

    Damo,

    I’m not sure why anyone would be treating Werribee as forgone conclusion. It delivered quite the nothingburger result in 2022 (see also: Melton), despite much media consternation. Labor losing would be a surprise – maybe in a situation that the major party vote is tied, and there’s a strong flow of preferences to the Libs? They were 20% behind Labor on PV in 2022, so quite a bit of catch up required.

    At a glance, the field of minors and independents doesn’t look anyway inspiring either – former Qld Liberal turned Dan-hater and a celebrity stalker among them.

  2. Daniel T:

    The coalition can’t wins seats Kenett didn’t even win in 92′ and 96′

    Why not? The LNP in Queensland won Mackay and Rockhampton last year, which they couldn’t even do at the 2012 or 1974 landslides. On the other side, SA Labor won Davenport and Waite in 2022, which stayed Liberal in 2006 (they ended up held by two opposition leaders). Places change over time.

    My tips for the by-elections: the Greens should hold Prahran without much trouble, but Werribee will be close. Back in 2010, there was a similar by-election in Altona: senior minister resigning, third term of Labor govt, western suburbs of Melbourne. Labor copped a 12% swing, which would narrowly tip Labor out if it happened here. However, western Melbourne already swung harder to the Libs than the state average in 2022 (Covid lockdown angst), so some of the swing Labor are bracing for might have already happened then.

    Here’s the difference between Labor’s Werribee and statewide 2pp vote over the last three elections:

    2014: 13.7%
    2018: 5.2%
    2022: 5.9%

    The change in 2018 was due to an independent coming second; it then stayed low in 2022, like a lot of the western suburbs. That shift could’ve been a one-off because of Covid, or a permanent structural change. If the new normal for Werribee is 5-6% stronger for Labor than the state average, it becomes a seat the Libs could win at a good election.

  3. Rex,

    Paywalled… Is there anything of substance in the article, or is it the standard fare for HS pieces on the SRL?

    I’d be interested to know how pausing the SRL would benefit MARL, given they are both well-and-truly under construction, and the delay in MARL was largely down to the feds not telling the airport to STFU until the last minute.

  4. Rex,

    Maybe, but I was more asking if there’s anything useful in the article, or if the HS has simply found someone to complain about their pet hate. Getting some anonymous backbencher to spout some bullshit consistent with the editorial line isn’t anything new or newsworthy.

  5. Looking at the pendulum: Labor could cop a 6% uniform swing, and as long as they don’t lose any more seats to the Greens they retain majority govt. Now make it 10%, and suddenly they’re flung from office with a worse seat count than 1992 or 1996. The reason why: there’s only 8 seats with margins below 6%, but then there’s 22 in the 6-10% range. That’s a fat pinata waiting to burst.

    If polling indicates a 8% swing with 2% margin of error, either of those things could end up happening. Retain government, or the worst flogging since Hamer was running the state (21 seats out of 81, in 1976). The difference between a historic fourth term and an absolute disaster is surprisingly small.

    Also, if the Greens are steady but Labor is down, that brings four more seats onto the table: Northcote, Pascoe Vale, Preston and Footscray (margins vs Green: 0.2, 2.0, 2.1, 4.2 respectively). A Green party room of 7-8 MPs just in the lower house would be a sight to see.

  6. Battin is not winning, I would bet $1,000,000 on that. Even John Howard called Victoria the Massachusetts of Australia. Why would Battin win who is like a Geoff Diehl win? Pessuto could win because he was more like a Charlie Baker.

    Or is Victoria more like Virginia? Is Massachusetts label overstated?

  7. The media barons (ALL Liberal Party members) are wetting their pants at THEIR reporting of the ALP being wiped out and Australia becoming a one party Nation

    Well, we will see

    Noting the Greens are also wetting their pants – and Labor will not form a coalition with the Greens because (well the reasons are many including hostility at the Greens aligning with the Liberal Party to interrupt the policy agenda Labor take to elections – never attacking the Liberals)

    But back to serious matters and why articles on the Clubs subject to those articles, articles which are a nonsense by their content

    The Australian Club article misses the art on display and the extent of the wine list – that you never take money from your wallet (everything put on your account and settled later), the meeting rooms including to the left as you enter where you are served coffee and after meal drinks – and nibbles by attentive staff

    That Garry Morgan is there

    That up the central stairway is the billiards room with multiple full sized tables (on which you can make a fool of yourself if you are as poor at that pursuit as I am!!)

    The attentiveness of the staff – and that the meeting rooms can be hired out

    Noting the publication does not get to interview anyone – and the person putting words to paper has no familiarity with the ambiance of the establishment

    So why write these articles because they misrepresent looking for what exactly?

  8. While there is no doubt a realignment happening in outer, working class areas, these things take time and a permanent realignment doesn’t happen overnight (ie. A -14% swing in 12 months).

    This poll is a moment in time. A moment where people are struggling, and right now Labor are in government at both levels – at state level in their third consecutive term – so naturally there is anger, there is backlash, there has to be someone to blame and right now it’s Labor.

    A lot can happen in 22 months. As rate cuts take effect, cost of living pressures ease, the anger could wear off.

    Labor could lose the 2025 federal election, which their current standing in Victoria will certainly contribute to, and then rather than having Labor at both levels, we’re back to a situation where the Liberals are running the country (which always gets more attention than state politics) and will have been in power for 10 of the past 13 years.

    The Liberals are incredibly effective in opposition at landing attacks but not so good at remaining popular (especially in VIC) in government. Even nationally it took Abbott less than 12 months to go from landslide victory to dire polling.

    My longer term predictions:

    – If the Liberals win the 2025 federal election, Labor win the 2026 state election (albeit possibly in minority);

    – If Labor win the 2025 federal election, especially if it’s in minority, the Liberals narrowly won the 2026 state election (45-46 seats max due to the map/pendulum) but are booted after one term again

    Why? I think Labor’s current standing is more a case of voters thinking they just need a reset / term on the bench, than it is a long term issue where Labor could ever be in the “wilderness”. Yes there’s a broader realignment happening but once the “time on the bench” factor is gone, that realignment has also favoured Labor in a lot of areas too that will probably return to them (as will a lot of north/west seats that if the Libs do win them, they will be very marginal due to Labor’s current margins they have to overcome).

  9. Daniel T at 9.54pm.

    I wouldn’t be placing that sort of money.
    The polling figures in Victoria started to fall in June last year, and the current poll is a continuance of that trend. Things may change in the next 20 months, but often once the public have made up their minds, it is very difficult.

    The tide goes in, and then it goes out. Nothing unusual with this, but it’s the normal course of events in politics.

  10. Herald Sun 24/01
    State Labor MPs have become increasingly anxious about affordability and viability of the SRL project as the state faces ballooning debt expected to reach $187.8bn by 2026-27.
    They consider the project a dead weight hampering the government’s ability to drive down debt and invest in key areas including health and education.
    Sources close to the Premier said the SRL was becoming harder to defend as a priority given the state’s widespread financial woes.
    _____________________
    Someone is leaking to the Herald Sun off the back of this poll.
    People saying 2025/26 is going to be better for the State Govt need to factor the SRL into the equation.
    Especially with Harriet Shing running the show.
    Allan would not survive a delay. Her crediblity would be torn to shreds.

  11. Brad Battin could be a game changer – he is a leader from the outer suburbs. Every Victorian leader since Bolte except for Allan Brown and Denis Napthine – neither of whom lasted long -has come fron the inner Eastern suburbs -based in what have been a diminishing constituency. Early days but he could redirect the party to where the voters and seats are – in the outer suburbs. The Liberals seem to have handled the change over well – unlike their usual practice – and the win was fairly decisive so not a threat soon. 2026 might be achievable.

  12. Peter Csays:
    Friday, January 24, 2025 at 9:58 pm
    But back to serious matters and why articles on the Clubs subject to those articles, articles which are a nonsense by their content.
    _____________________
    I haven’t been bothered reading them.
    The clubs are well down on my list of things to worry about.

  13. Blackburnpseph,

    Yes, you’re correct, there has been minimal backgrounding since the change.
    Those things are important, for both parties.
    Looks like Labor is starting to leak, though the Herald Sun is notoriously anti Labor.
    It’s this poll which has set off shockwaves? Correct.

    BBPseph & TM – what are your reads on Prahran and Werribee for Feb.8

  14. But how will the coalition appeal to the 18-30 cohort in the inner and outer suburbs? They need at least some of these voters and less people are copying their parents voting patterns nowadays.

    Remember Kos Samaras once said that the coalition would be doomed unless they can appeal to the younger generations because older voters are dying off, the coalition can’t rely on boomers and millennials (unless they can win a large amount of millennials not seen at federal or state level yet)

    I could see a moderate leader win them like a Hamer/O’Farrell/Baird/Brown (Dean)/Gutwein, etc.

    But Battin belongs more in the Bolte/Greiner (Debateable)/Perrottet/Newman/Olsen, etc. Camp.

    Bolte could win in his day but not today and he stepped down because he faced almost certain defeat if they didn’t modernize under Hamer.

    I don’t see Battin winning the age group I mentioned (Or competing), Trump managed to compete with 18-30 but because he put forward some policies that appealed to that age group. What does Battin have to offer? No dingers, just tax cuts, no services, no ambitious projects, just tax cuts. and as someone who doesn’t currently work, Tax cuts do 0 for me.

  15. Nadia88

    On the old thread 31/12/24 you said

    “I’ll put myself down for a Lib win with Prahran.
    Libs to > 40% on primaries, and win on a 2PP < 55%"

    Is this still your view? And based on what reasoning?

    I know you think these things through so interested.

  16. Hey BT Says,

    I did say that, and I was asked earlier today by another poster about that same issue at 10.00am, on this thread.

    I did provide a response at 10.57am. Was a bit detailed.

    I’m a bit out on a limb, I feel, but I’ll stick with my view.

  17. Hey Daniel T,

    The Resolve poll shows that 49% of Victorian males aged > 18 will be providing their 1st preference vote to the LNP.
    Yes, we are 20 months away from the Vic state election, and this will no doubt change, but that 49% figure is very high and it won’t be all baby boomers, gen x and millenials.
    Young men (under 35) have started to swing right, as evident in the euro elections last June, and recently the U.S. election.
    Why? I honestly believe that this age group are sick to death of being told that they’re toxic or bad or evil based solely on their gender. They are fed up.
    Who do they blame? Answer is “the left”
    Why do they blame the left, and not the right? Answer, it is generally the “left wing politicians” which get caught up in all this toxic masculinity toxicity. The right wing politicians, avoid it. In fact, more recently, right wing politicians are denouncing it. Look at Polivierre in Canada, and Trump in America.

    I may not be explaining the “kulcha wars” correctly. There is a poster called Meher Baba who floats around, who can explain this issue more succinctly. Check with him pls if you see him on the thread, as he has probably the best grip on the “kulcha war” side of things, than others.

    As for Kos Samaras – he is a pollster. He also tends to flip flop around with his views about what is causing primary votes to fluctuate. The polling he provides, usually has healthy samples, but what he expresses on his twitter feed – I tend to just read and move on.

  18. Nadia

    Thanks! – had a good read of that page (starting with your post of course. . .). Interesting.

    I find myself in the camp of suspecting Werribee to fall to Libs but Prahan to remain Green, but it would certainly be a very good omen for Libs if they did win both given the somewhat different demographics involved.

    Though I wouldn’t necessarily interpret that as a given Lab will be crushed in the fed election in the same places.

    But maybe I’m just being cautious, plus I’m too far away to ‘get a feel’ of the political situation properly.

  19. Nadia
    On Prahran and Werribee, I think there will definitely be a swing to the Libs. If they narrowly lose it will still be a substantial swing and they can be happy. If they happen to win Werribee or both seats then Jacinta Allan is toast and Labor will thrash around looking for a solution. Werribee gives the Libs a foothold in the western suburbs. The optics of the Liberal candidate are not good. Low turn out might hurt the Greens in Prahran.

  20. To Daniels comments about voter demographics ….
    In Soviet Russia they used to say that religion would die out as only the old – old women in particular – went to church. But every decade there always seemed to be a new generation of old woman churchgoers …..

  21. It’s worth looking at long stretches of government by one side broken up by single term governments form the other side. (Not deliberately picking on Labor here; the last single-term Labor govt was over 50 years ago.)

    Qld: 1989-2012 (Nat 1996-98)
    NT: 2001-2024 (CLP 2012-16)
    Vic: 1999-? (Lib 2010-14)
    SA: 2002-? (Lib 2018-22)

    Rob Borbidge stumbled into minority government thanks to a by-election, then got bushwhacked by One Nation. The Mills / Giles govt in the NT was a clown show, and Baillieu / Napthine in Vic wasn’t much better. Marshall… dunno, although going two months before Scott Morrison bit the dust can’t have helped. In all cases the result was an almost-continuous Labor govt for well over 20 years, with a barely-remembered conservative blip. The “It’s Time” factor has to bite eventually.

    Those Qld and NT govts ended up being thrown out in a massive landslide; as for Vic 2026, I guess we’ll see. The first two cases happened when Labor was in federally; if Albanese gets a second term, it won’t augur well for Vic Labor.

    As for SA, we’ll have to waaaait and see. The pathetically broken SA Libs have no hope of winning next year (even if there’s a slowly dying federal Labor govt to take pot shots at), and by 2030 they’ll probably have a federal Lib govt getting in their way. 2034 perhaps? 32 years of almost continuous govt is an age.

    Another one that fits the list is SA, 1970-1993 (Lib 1979-82). I’ve got no idea what went wrong for David Tonkin, beyond it being the twilight of the Fraser govt. Once again, that long stretch of Labor govt ended in a landslide defeat with Labor in power federally.

  22. Bird of paradox, I think John Cain Sr was the last one. I don’t think John Tonkin in WA was a 1-termer, Didn’t he beat Brand twice?.

    I think Cain Sr was 1952-1955 in his last stint as premier.

    Unless there are other examples since then most of them are almost all Liberal premiers.

    The coalition almost always held power in Victoria from the 1930’s until 1982. Labor struggled to get re-elected even with Cain Jr.

    Cain Jr, only won NARROW victories in 1985 and 1988, A few seats wouldv’e made Kennett Premier earlier.

    Any idea why Vic Labor struggled to win power up until this century? Until Bracks 2002, Labor usually won narrow victories when they rarely did win.

  23. I find the level of interest and comments regarding the February 8th by elections in Victoria are somewhat heightened when compared to similar opportunities when offered on PB.
    Obviously the upcoming Federal election is tickling some interest in these by-elections as is the polling indicating a substantial “change of heart” by some Victorian voters in favour of the Liberal Party.
    It does seem surprising.
    Everything about these by-elections seem surprising so surprising results are a possibility.

  24. Greens to hold Prahran due to the renters. Alp to hold Werribee. (Werribee is analogous to the Dems in Florida.).

    The ALP may be on the nose but the Libs don’t bear closer scrutiny. No one wants Moira Deeming running the state.

  25. Could an explanation for the apparent “swing” (at least in this poll) be simply explained by the Premier being female. Masculinity under threat among and that sort of thing ??
    Thoughts ??

  26. Gas ban for new houses was a terrible decision for Labor in more ways than one (paternalistic, lobbyists driven, putting corporations first), there were other ways of addressing it. It won’t be forgotten, lucky elections are in November, not July.

    There needs to be leadership change prior to the election, with someone from the moderate faction taking charge, with significant decisions to show a line has been drawn behind the Andrews/Allen period. Reset and put the covid era behind us, properly, or voters will do it for us.

  27. Nonsense. The vast majority of corporate lobbyists are AGAINST the gas ban. Corporate money is desperate for people to keep buying gas as long as possible.

    There’s a huge number of existing Victorian homes getting off gas asap, and it’s scaring the fossil fuel industry.

    When you go fully-electric, your monthly utility bills are a ton lower, even just starting with the $1 a day they charge you to be connected to the gas network.

  28. “ Gas ban for new houses was a terrible decision for Labor in more ways than one (paternalistic, lobbyists driven, putting corporations first), there were other ways of addressing it. It won’t be forgotten, lucky elections are in November, not July.”

    Rising gas prices were one of the prime causes of rising costs of living. They still are. Maybe it hasn’t been well sold, but this policy was strongly in the interest of households.

    Installing new gas systems in a country which will soon have to import gas for domestic use is madness.

  29. WA state labor looks like being added to that long term government list above as the so called opposition are struggling to lay a glove on state labor which means no major catch up this election then that’s potential two more terms in opposition given how far behind they are.

    Leftie Victoria has lost the plot cutting off the heads of statues in Ballarat yesterday shows a crime infested failing debt ridden,public sector union dominated state.

    Covid fiasco kicked it off…

  30. pied pipersays:
    Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 10:29 am

    [Leftie Victoria has lost the plot cutting off the heads of statues in Ballarat yesterday shows a crime infested failing debt ridden,public sector union dominated state.]

    That’s a wholesome gobfull if you like that sort of thing.
    The (absent) FUBAR has a suggestion for you if you find the situation so unbearable.
    Otherwise your comment is wonderfully “monty pthonish” at its best.

  31. The Ballarat statue damage was pretty clearly Trumpist alt-right types, like most home grown terrorist behaviour.

    The two PMs targeted were Keating and Rudd, and the vandals were driving a typical oversized dual cab redneck ute that no self respecting leftie would be seen dead in.

  32. Authorities know exactly who the people taking the heads of the PM statues were, it’s not “lefties”.

    You remember when there was a white supremacist march in Ballarat? Or neo-nazi training camps in the Grampians? There’s a bit of a local scene. Thankfully most people out there aren’t like that.

  33. Kagesays:
    Saturday, January 25, 2025 at 9:24 am
    Could an explanation for the apparent “swing” (at least in this poll) be simply explained by the Premier being female. Masculinity under threat among and that sort of thing ??
    Thoughts
    ——-
    Nup labor started losing support when Andrews was leader.

  34. More leftie nut jobs in Victoria overnight below..

    ‘Horror’ as Anzac memorial defaced; John Batman statue cut in half by vandals
    An Anzac memorial honouring fallen soldiers has been doused with red paint while a statue honouring John Batman has been destroyed and graffiti sprayed across a citizenship ceremony in the latest attacks leading up to Australia Day.Herald sun now.

    Love Australia lefties!

    Stop your cultural war!

  35. The anti-gas lobbyists got to Lilly and pushed the ban, extremists like those at the Australia Institute.

    The ban was partly sold as necessary because its too expensive for consumers, but why not let consumers decide, like almost everything else in our market economy.

    If consumers are already choosing to switch from gas, then that’s good, no need for the government to interfere.

    Australia is not a net importer of gas, and having an import terminal to bypass the pipeline monopoly isn’t a bad thing. If gas for Victoria comes from the NW shelf by ship, great.

    If industry wants to use gas they can, they just might have to mitigate it, but consumers aren’t given that choice.

    The worst thing about the decision, is it went from compulsary for all new houses to have gas connection available, to a total ban, no optional period.

    And as a ban on gas infrastructure, it’s effectively a ban on green-gas as well, should such a product evolve, it’s like ripping up tram tracks because electricity is too expensive and motor cars are taking over.

    The process that led to that decision being made is why Labor is in trouble.

  36. The problem for labor federally is that the state election in Vic is after the federal election, so Victorians will have to take their baseball bats out at the federal election.

  37. @bug1

    Lol at the “anti-gas lobbyists” (i.e. scientists) from the “evil Australia Institute”… That’s Liberal party talking points which gas producers are pushing their product with – that’s the lobbyists with the really deep pockets here.

    Also note that your argument doesn’t back up your “putting corporations first” claim – which corporations are you trying to insinuate are in favour of the gas ban?

    “Green gas” is marketing speak – it’s still burning carbon. Almost as good as the convenient long-standing euphemism “natural gas”, which when they named it, didn’t mean what people think it means now.

    You might have been able to make a case for keeping the gas lines for “green hydrogen”, but if that even happens it’ll be a long time away. Fact is that it’s significantly cheaper, safer and healthier for consumers to go fully-electric right now, even before you get to the risk of a gas shortage sometime in future.

  38. Science doesnt care if the greenhouse emissions come from coal or fossil-gas, that’s economics and politics.

    There have been negotiations going for decades trying to tackle climate change based on emissions, now some random think they can just stop supply in one place, and that’s going to help fix it… it’s like pushing on a rope.

    The anti-gas lobbyists are anti-consumer, not specifically pro-corporation, ban for residence, but corporations s can pay their way.

  39. Daniel T:

    Bird of paradox, I think John Cain Sr was the last one. I don’t think John Tonkin in WA was a 1-termer, Didn’t he beat Brand twice?.

    I think Cain Sr was 1952-1955 in his last stint as premier.

    John Tonkin got just the one term, 1971-74. He spent a bit more time than that as an MP – 44 years! 1933-1977. He was a minister in two other Labor governments before being premier. There were probably a few MPs in his government who weren’t even born when he entered parliament.

    Any idea why Vic Labor struggled to win power up until this century? Until Bracks 2002, Labor usually won narrow victories when they rarely did win.

    The DLP split crippled Labor particularly in Vic and Qld. If not for that, there would’ve been some Labor victories to break up the long 1955-1982 stretch.

    As for the size of victories, there’s a bunch of seats in western Vic that Bracks won in 1999 and have generally stuck with Labor since then – Ballarat x2, Bendigo x2, Ripon, Macedon. That runs up the numbers a bit.

    Also, population shifts in Vic keep on wiping out safe Nat seats in the bush and Lib-leaning seats in the eastern suburbs.

  40. For the rest of our Strayia members, see how this so called stupid incompetent state Govt spends tax payers money on useless infrastructure projects that will never work and bankrupt us all to eternity.
    Just remember,the last time the LNP was in govt they did nothing of any consequence and were kicked out after one term,a remarkable effort and still they are fighting each other.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKHlrFRHMoI

  41. Grome

    Thanks for the link. The Melbourne rail grade separation project has been featured at many recent transport planning conferences as a best practice project.

    While not cheap, Melbourne got great value through the standardised approach featuring pre-fabrication used, and economies of scale achieved.

    As well as the transport outcomes, it also created a clear differential rise in property values for homes near the upgraded lines.

  42. With the focus on achieving Australians, recipients of Awards (but why the focus on Military and not other vocations at the level?) AND on Tame (correctly) calling out our media barons as toxic to Australian society, it should also be put that Australians contribute to society also by significant donations to worthy causes and by donating their time to worthy causes

    And many seek no publicity for their contributions.

    This support is not only by high net worth individuals but, thru such as donations to the Good Friday Appeal, to the project of the Australian of the Year and to the Bushfire Appeal, by Australians across the board.

    There is good amongst us.

    Long may it continue – and define the Island known as Australia and its people.

    We ARE better than what the current climate is instructing (thru those Tame identifies)

    David Tonkin, a one term LCP Premier in SA voted out courtesy of his economic and social agenda.

    And a question.

    In 50 or 100 years, what will the impact of infrastructure spending today be?

    Including the refurbishment of our school buildings?

  43. Ok, I’ve got a general trend of where posters feel the two by-elections will go.
    We’ll get a by-election thread around 6pm Melb time on Feb.8, so I’ll provide a tally of everyone’s predictions. Pls feel free to update as the next 10 days unfold.
    Even though this site has dropped down a couple of notches, WB may boost it back up, especially if we get a state based poll out of Redbridge, which appears to be looming.
    Samaras has already mentioned on his twitter feed that the ALP vote from their last poll is down, so I suppose he has the primaries. Just waiting for it to be released.

    For reference here’s the last Redbridge Vic state based poll, dated 4-Dec…

    https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Victorian-state-vote-intention-Nov-2024.pdf

  44. Prahran

    Liberal behaviour at Chapel St pre-poll yesterday.
    They were harassing young female Greens (jewish) volunteers to the extent that everyone is videoing.
    The 8 Liberal volunteers would not sign on with VEC including 2 upper house members who aggressive

    Indication of Liberal desperation, as well as Born to Rule mentality and fascist behaviour

    Former Labor state member Tony Lupton is a Liberal sleeper who is funded by Advance Australia

  45. That doesn’t surprise me at all and will probably (hopefully) only hurt their vote.

    Tony Lupton’s game is becoming more & more obvious. On social media talks about not being aligned to a political party but then boasts that “the Liberals are with me” to defeat the Greens. He talks about representing traditional Labor values as the “progressive independent” but then reassures people concerned that he is just Labor in disguise by promoting the fact that he has preferenced the Liberals second.

    On his sponsored social media posts, people are now asking where his funding is coming from. Advance Australia would make sense since his attacks on the Greens exactly mirror theirs.

    It’s clear that the strategy is to present him as an ex-Labor MP to try to scoop up as much of that Labor vote as possible in the absence of them running, but then to get his HTVC into their hands and funnel their vote to the Liberal Party. Problem is, the tactic is becoming more & more obvious and people are questioning it on all his social media activity.

    Based on the comments of people supporting him, he’s actually going to eat into the Liberal vote more than the Greens vote, and even among Labor voters, will probably mostly only attract the type that preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens anyway.

    It’s been an incredibly negative campaign from both Lupton and the Liberals, neither have really offered much at all in terms of actual policy, just “Labor & Greens are bad”. The Greens campaign has been almost entirely positive, by contrast. They’ve avoided attacks on either and have just stayed disciplined in promoting their own policies.

    A couple of interesting things from Raf Epstein’s interview with Rachel Westaway & Angelica Di Camillo:

    – When Raf asked how Rachel could influence anything while Labor are in government, she said “Angelica & I are in the same boat here…” but when it was Angelica’s turn to answer, she very quickly pointed out that the Greens have influence in the upper house, and that the Liberals need to effectively double their seat count to win in 2026 whereas the Greens have a good chance at holding the balance of power;

    – Rachel banged on repeatedly about the Greens’ plan to tax vacant commercial properties at 2% as being a tax on traders & businesses, and that businesses would pass that onto consumers, which makes no sense. Angelica again made very clear, this is a tax on VACANT properties, if there is a trader, there is no tax to pass on.

    – At the end, Angelica was asked to say something positive about Brad Battin and she said that he has been out talking to the community; Rachel was asked to say something nice about Jacinta Allen and refused, just went on the attack saying she can’t think of a single nice thing to say about her.

    This moment I think reinforced the perception that the Liberals are all negativity, which has come up a lot (including earlier in the interview).

    As the Liberal campaign has become increasingly negative, personal and misleading, I think (or at least hope) that it is a sign of desperation and the campaign not cutting through. While the Greens not resorting to that and staying on message from the start, is hopefully a sign that they believe it’s resonating.

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