The Age today leads with a startling Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic, though it requires a note of caution in that the sample is 559, giving it a larger than normal error margin upwards of 4%. (UPDATE: It turns out that 559 refers only refers to the preferred premier question, and that the voting intention results, as usual, combine two monthly polling surveys with an overall sample size of 1124 and a typical error margin of around 3%). The usual practice of Nine Newspapers is to produce state results for New South Wales and Victoria in alternating months using the samples from those states in the monthly national polls, but on this occasion it was evidently decided to dispense with the earlier polling period as it was conducted before Brad Battin replaced John Pesutto as Liberal leader.
The poll finds Labor plunging six points from an already weak position to 22%, with the Coalition up four to 42% and the Greens steady on 13% (the same sample of respondents in the federal poll published earlier this week had Labor at 25%, the Coalition at 38% and the Greens at 13%) (UPDATE: Make that half the same sample). Brad Battin debuts with a 37-27 lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier, compared with a 30-29 lead for John Pesutto in the November result. Twenty-eight per cent rated themselves more likely to vote Liberal after the leadership change compared with 11% for less likely, while 11% rated themselves more likely and 18% less likely to vote Labor on account of the rather less newsworthy fact of former Treasurer Tim Pallas’s retirement.
On that subject, I have guides up for the February 8 by-elections in Prahran and Pallas’s seat of Werribee. The ballot paper draw in Prahran was conducted last week, while Werribee’s will be held later today. Regarding Prahran, Antony Green points to the fact that Tony Lupton, who held the seat for Labor from 2002 to 2010 and is now running as an independent, has a how-to-vote card recommending the Liberals be put ahead of the Greens.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
I’m calculating 54-46 on that poll. but that was taken before Pessuto was rolled, It will reverse soon becase Battin is unelectable. Outer-suburban people don’t give a damn about the cost of living more than the enviroment, healthcare. They will not vote for a right-winger no matter how bad the economy is. This is not Queensland. This is Victoria.
That’s apocalyptic.
The rise seems to be driven by 35-54 year olds and 55+ year olds – those who are paying off a mortgage and those who have paid it off.
I looked at the headline in this mornings ‘The Age’,shook my head and noticed Chip Le Grand had his name on it.How typical of Homer and his politics,but I guess 25 years of spewing out crap for The Australian will do that to you.
The Age,Independence always.Yeh sure!
Daniel, absolutely, it’s not Queensland. It’s more than ten points worse than Queensland.
You guys got a Tarago?
My comment at 6.39am should say “rise in the Coalition PV”.
Brad Battin debuts with a 37-27 lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier….
_____________________
One hell of a debut.
Taylormade @ #8 Friday, January 24th, 2025 – 7:29 am
God works in mysterious ways.
Werribee by election will give a good indication where things actually are.
Taylormade @ 7.29am:
I mean, he’s a relatively untested opposition leader. Give it a few months.
Federal Labor ought to worry about Victoria, yet no visits there from Albanese and senior ministers so far this year.
”
Democracy Sausagesays:
Friday, January 24, 2025 at 8:03 am
Federal Labor ought to worry about Victoria, yet no visits there from Albanese and senior ministers so far this year.
”
DS
The above scenario should suit you, isn’t it because you don’t want to vote ALP anyway?
Crashing the property market by doubling the land tax. Then we get the cfmeu scandal on top of major project overruns.
All at the time of high interest rates.
How incompetent can you get.
Chisholm will stay Labor, I will personally campaign for Labor to ensure it happens as I am moving to the seat in the next couple of weeks. Can’t afford a “Class of 2019 voted Morrison 100% of the time backbench MP that was defeated in 2022” When will the defeated MP’s ride their horses in the sunset and accept the voters rejected them?
No the poll is not 10 points worse than QLD, and I will also remind people there was a poll in 2016/2017 (forgot which year) that had the coalition 54-46 ahead in Victoria.
Frankston, Carrum, Mordialloc, Narre Warren N&S and Monbulk would be under NO threat even factoring in this poll
Libs will gain back Pakenham and Hastings at BEST at the next election which is mostly due to leader being from near those seats.
I predict however Labor will lose a few seats to Independents like Ian Cook. both parties are historically unpopular with their leaders, and it’s dissapointing that there is an opposition that is embracing Sky After Dark because I know the people of this state that they will not elect a right-wing party to government. People don’t want a Tony Abbott as PM or Premier, The results will speak for themselves in 2025 and 2026.
Yep, the polling coming our of Victoria is dire. 22% is I believe the level KK dragged NSW down to in 2011.
Daniel T – the poll (as noted by WB) was compiled after the leadership changeover. Dated 21-Jan.
Democracy Sausage – I think Fed Labor has taken the state for granted this past term. ie: They thought Vic was “in the bag”. Really good to see you back on the site too!
Lib pickup both seats in Werribee & Prahran on Feb.8
I’m happy to keep a tally for the site of posters predictions.
Daniel T – per Chisholm.
If there is a swing on, which there is, that seat will return to the LNP Federally.
The LNP candidate – Katie Allen, is a proven vote shredder. She got flogged in Prahran in 2018, and brought the Higgins primary vote down, to the extent she lost that seat in 2022. She’s a poor candidate, but the locals have pre selected her, and if there is an anti Albo swing (Resolve says Federally Labor is sitting at 25%), then she’ll be back in Parliament.
On these figures, I think Victorians are going to deliver a 1990 style Federal wipe-out to Mr Albanese. It’s on
90% of people would have never even heard of Battin. I doubt more than 50% can actually answer who the premier is.
That’s how low profile state politics has been.
Bill @ 8.32am:
“Crashing the property market by doubling the land tax.”
As a firm believer in the idea that houses should be places to live and not things to be speculated on, good. Besides, the land tax only applies to investment properties or vacant land.
nadia88, you lost me at “the locals have pre selected her”, which they haven’t.
The “locals” preselected Theo Zographos, she was parachuted in Chisholm by Dutton following the abolition of Higgins.
@nadia88 the locals in Chisholm did not preselect Katie Allen. They preselected Theo Zographos.
Libs need to dump election loser candidates that have run and lost .
Debt is a major issue older voters still remember last time Victoria had a state labor government blow its debt out.
VIC premier is a rolled gold dud
Fed government does not want to be tainted with the crime issue in Victoria Albo took flak for NT crime did a visit and did nothing.
His visits will be to sandbag electorates labor is way ahead on that’s how bad they are travelling.
Feds got to go to election before VIC state budget which will be a disaster sadly.
The dire polling for Labor in Victoria right now, just before a federal election, if Victoria becomes decisive in the federal result, could actually work out to be a blessing in disguise for Victorian Labor.
I’ve said a few times that the 2026 election result will likely be heavily influenced by who is in government federally at that time.
If Labor win the federal election, especially governing in minority, then I think Victorian Labor are facing an uphill battle to rebuild their state support, even though as I’ve said before 2025/26 are likely to be much better years for them than 2023/24 were. It’s still going to be difficult.
However, if the Liberals win government federally in a few months, it will only take until the end of 2025 for the Liberal brand to be back “on the nose” and toxic again in Victoria as is nearly always the case when we have a Liberal federal government. That, coupled with Victorian Labor having a lot more ‘positives’ to pack into 2025/26 compared to the all the negatives they front-loaded to 2023/24, should see their vote rebound, easily enough to at least keep the Liberals well short of gaining 17 seats.
@nadia88, I’m curious about your Prahran prediction. Do you have any particular intel or methodology driving it? I live in the seat and have been paying very close attention to the campaign on the ground, what I’m seeing in terms of visibility, hearing from people, and from each candidates’ social media feed. While I’m predicting a closer result than I originally did, I’m not seeing any clear evidence that is pointing to a 12%+ swing to the Liberals. Word is that even Tony Lupton supporters are saying they would never preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens, and his controversial HTVC could actually hurt his own primary vote as it’s reinforced a perception that he’s working with the Liberals (both put each other #2) and his base is predominantly Labor voters who can’t/won’t vote Liberal and still see them as their traditional enemy. Labor voters who have deserted Labor for the Liberals would have just swung to them, but the Labor vote was already pretty low in Prahran. And generally, Labor being unpopular doesn’t translate to voters swinging from Greens to Liberals.
Even if Labor voters break around 60-40 to the Greens (much of which will come via an IND primary vote first), that’ll get the Greens over the line; and in 2022 Labor preferences that didn’t follow the HTVC broke 75-25 to the Greens.
I stand corrected Mr Small.
Yes, looks like state council parachuted her into the seat after Zographos was pre-selected in 2023.
Regardless, she is a poor candidate choice. Doubt it will make a difference though on these numbers.
Victoria is getting ready to flush the toilet. They do not like the LNP – what they can see of it, but they want to press the reset button on the current “stale” ALP lot who are taking flak from world-wide effects.
What really worries me is the sudden irrational lurch to the right. The Repugs in the US have broken all “the rules” and our LNP are desperate enough to go with those tactics. This is not a great result for democracy.
Meanwhile the Libs will be on the nose within weeks of resting back federal and state power.
On the ground – ALP supporters in Prahran less than impressed that the “ALP” ersatz candidate is in bed with the Libs. The ALP party hatred of the Greens is not supported by the ALP grunts, they see the Greens as the ALP with a conscience.
Coalition will win Federal and Victoria. Welcome prime Minister Dutton and Premier Batten. Both ex cops! First thing axed will be welcome to country ceremonies and readings at the opening of a letter. The VLT will decimate the mornington peninsula. Watch the fire sales after Easter.
Hi Trent,
re: Prahran.
No I don’t have any intel on the seat. I’m an ex Victorian, currently living in Brisbane’s nthn suburbs. I suppose I just try to keep a close tab on politics and keep a note of what some of the good posters here, and other sites, have to say, and the journos etc, as well as KB & AG on their sites.
I’m reasonably familiar with the area.
In Sept, the state based polling for Labor started to sink below 30. This was confirmed in the Dec Resolve poll (for state primaries), which had Labor at 27. Now today it sits at 22. Might be a freak result but gosh, it’s a shocker for the ALP.
27-Dec: Leadership change to a Conservative (Battin), from the Moderate (Pesutto). As the Lib base skews conservative, this has served to galvanise the base. Provides momentum as the base now has the candidate they want. Battin is not from the religious fundamentalist fringe of the party, he’s a pure conservative. He’s just used their support to gain the leadership.
Shortly afterwards, around New Years (& well before this 22% poll) I suggested the Libs will pick up Prahran.
To answer your question, I believe there is a sufficient level of banked up hostility from the electorate to state Labor, that they will send a message, by electing a Lib in Prahran. Electing a Green won’t quite send the message, in fact it may provide comfort to the state Labor gov’t.
But putting in a Lib, even if Westaway only sits there until the next election, before reverting back to the Greens, will send more of a message to Ms Allan & state Labor.
Second, but not major; There are also a lot of renters in Prahran and this makes it difficult to maintain the voting rolls.
I am assuming the Greens are running a massive doorknock campaign where this is pointed out to people who open their doors. Regardless, by-election turnout often drops and a lot of that would be Greens aligned renters/younger people. Updating the electoral roll is not the first thing a lot of younger voters do when they change residence.
As you know well by living there, Prahran is a fairly cosmopolitan/bohemian sort of area, and a Lib politician is rarely a good fit, especially on the current boundaries.
I note that the Green primary appears to be holding up in Victoria, despite all the “doom talk” some post about them.
I just think there is a sufficient level of hostility by the voters towards state Labor, which will overwhelm the Green candidate. I use current polling figures to support this, rather than wishcasting or making things up on the fly.
I think the LNP are on track to get well into the 40’s on primary, and probably just take the seat a tick over the 50% 2PP. We’ll find out in 2 weeks I suppose.
Fed implications – this by-election will be a good litmus test for Macnamara.
Regardless, I think Federal Labor is heading for a beating in Vic when the Fed election is held, on the basis that Albo comes first, and Jacinta faces the electorate in 2026.
Looking to me a little bit like the 1990 Fed result in Vic could be replicated
But…I think the Fed Greens vote is holding up in Victoria (Melb). I don’t believe all the doom casting about the Greens vote we hear in the papers and on this site.
Hope I’ve answered your query, and thanks I suppose for dropping by to ask me.
Good to see you back on the site too. Don’t see you around here that often.
Fair call Trent. We’ll see in a couple of weeks.
Edit – I see you’ve removed your post, but I read it. Probably catch up on Feb.8.
”
nadia88says:
Friday, January 24, 2025 at 9:18 am
Daniel T – per Chisholm.
If there is a swing on, which there is, that seat will return to the LNP Federally.
The LNP candidate – Katie Allen, is a proven vote shredder. She got flogged in Prahran in 2018, and brought the Higgins primary vote down, to the extent she lost that seat in 2022. She’s a poor candidate, but the locals have pre selected her, and if there is an anti Albo swing (Resolve says Federally Labor is sitting at 25%), then she’ll be back in Parliament.
On these figures, I think Victorians are going to deliver a 1990 style Federal wipe-out to Mr Albanese. It’s on
”
nadia
It appears that you are licking your lips in anticipation of ALP defeat
The thing is nadia, the big picture is like this.
If LNP gets elected at federal level, you can say good bye to carbon emissions control of any.
People like me(older people), who linger on PB a lot, may live for another 10, 15, 20 years. It is the younger generation like you, who live much longer than us and face the music due to the consequences of Climate change. Good luck with supporting LNP and Trump.
One side of politics can’t be in government forever, with the exception of Labor and the Greens in the ACT.
The Allan Government looks tired and old to me, from this distance away in Sydney anyway.
22 year labour voter. No more. They have lost there way no longer for the worker only interested in pandering to the greens and bringing in woke garbage. That’s why there vote crumbling. People finally starting to wake up to it and sick of it. Never thought I’d ever say it but gee I hope the Libs get in federally and state. If nothing else to even up the ship. Cause she’s tilting.
Thanks Nadia! Interesting analysis, and good to hear the reasoning behind it.
A lot of those factors are things have that concerned me to an extent as well, to the point where earlier this week I started getting a little more worried about the seat (as a Greens supporter myself), but upon further reflection and from things I am hearing on the ground – and seeing locally as well – I am now a bit less concerned that the Liberals will be able to overcome that 12% margin.
Here are a few reasons:
1. Turnout: Definitely a very valid point, but I just note that the turnout in 2022 was very low too (only 82%) when the Greens still romped home, so this may only have a small effect;
2. Renters / maintaining rolls: In my experience, renters actually have their enrolment updated automatically by the RTBA when they pay their bond. You get a letter from the VEC saying that the RTBA informed them, if it’s correct you don’t need to do anything, you’re enrolled. It’s actually when you buy a house that you need to enrol yourself.
Of course, if you just move into a share-house you’re probably most at-risk of not being enrolled, but the fact that a rental crisis has escalated since 2022 and the Greens are focusing heavily on rent freezes & caps as a central policy, means a swing to the Greens among renters could potentially cancel out any enrolment factor;
3. It’s a good point that voters might want to send a message to the Allan government, but I think that will be most evident among the cohort of Labor voters who preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens already. In 2022, 70% of Labor voters didn’t follow a HTVC, and out of them, around 25% put the Liberals ahead of the Greens. There will be a cohort whose vote ended up with the Greens last time who will do this too, but it won’t be a huge number;
4. The Labor vote in this seat was already quite low – 10% below the statewide vote – so any swing away from Labor won’t be to the same extent as that, and I believe there are significant local issues that may have already favoured an ALP to GRN swing among the key Labor-voting demographics in the seat, this includes:
– Anger at Labor over not rebuilding St Kilda Primary School’s hall and an imminent closure of Windsor Childcare Centre, and the Greens have been at the forefront of both campaigns. Teachers/educators are a core Labor demographic;
– Anger at Labor over the plans to demolish & replace the public housing towers in a private/public partnership that only increases the public housing units by 10%. Prahran has a lot of these towers (third most of any seat) and Sam Hibbins was the main opponent of Labor’s policy and ally of the resident groups opposing it, the Greens have continued to be vocal about this. Again, public housing towers are Labor strongholds.
5. Just as a local in terms of visibility and ground game, there are Greens corflutes everywhere – and mostly on houses that would more typically be a Liberal voting demographic – whereas I have only seen 1 Liberal corflute. In terms of posters (the type that gets plastered up with concert posters), they are probably 90% Greens and 10% Tony Lupton. As you mention too, the Greens have been doing a huge door-knock campaign, two door knocks per day, in addition to setting up at stations, supermarkets etc. The Liberals have only been doing the latter, and based on social media, it appears to be 80% older people (retirement age) speaking to them;
6. Reports I am hearing are that the Labor voters disappointed that Labor are not running, including those supporting Tony Lupton, are expressing a lot more dislike for the Liberals than the Greens and Lupton’s HTVC may backfire on him a bit;
7. While the leadership spill has probably had little effect elsewhere as it hasn’t received much attention, it would be more noticeable here as the former leadership trio of Pesutto, Crozier & Southwick were VERY involved in Westaway’s campaign up until the spill, and have mostly disappeared since. It feels like the broader party took some focus off Prahran when Werribee was announced too.
Overall, I do think all the points you raise will contribute to shaving points off the Greens’ 2CP margin. However, I think enough of those factors have probably already been baked into that cohort of Labor/Other voters who preferenced the Liberals ahead of the Greens last time as well, in addition to some local factors potentially having already moved voters from ALP to GRN, that I don’t think it will amount to a swing in excess of 12%.
I am expecting a swing of potentially up to 8-9% though due to a lot of factors working against them so I think it will be much closer than I first anticipated when I originally predicted around a 57-43 2CP.
@nadia88 – Yeah I wrote that post before I saw yours (it was in response to MABWM) so I removed it to re-write my comment (above) more specifically in response to your good points. 🙂
I may be rusted on, but I have a deep suspicion of this poll. It is apparently based on the views of 559 people and its is run by Jim Reed, formerly of Crosby Textor.
In the outer suburbs there is a concern over debt. There has been wall to wall savage criticism of Labor from the press and it has begun to bite.
But, Brad Battin as preferred premier ??? He was the member for Gembrook with a margin of over 6,000 votes (9% margin)which was reduced to 400 by a young Michael Galea. The seat was abolished and Battin moved to the Liberal voting areas.
I guess Nadia would describe him as a “vote shredder” like Katie Allen. Incidentally Katie Allan’s sin is that she is moderately socially progressive which is not popular around Lib Branchies. Battin is socially regressive and boasts of his stellar career as a policeman who rose through the ranks to Senior Connie. Wow, what an achievement.
With an election two years away, anything can happen.
Terrible poll for VIC Labor. This will have Ben Carroll salivating for a leadership challenge. He’s even less electable than Shorten.
Oh well, Dan’s infrastructure legacy is huge, but it’s looking like Battin will get a go at the big job next year.
Thanks Trent, no probs. We’ll see in a couple of weeks.
Out of interest I don’t really see you on the site here that much. Do you post anywhere else or do you only drop by when an election is due.
Only reason I ask is you’ve got a fairly objective & measured outlook on politics in Vic & Australia wide.
I think I last saw you posting here around the QLD election and you seem to have a good grip on politics.
I’ll be out on byelection night unfortunately but will definitely be keenly checking the results on my phone when I can because I have to admit, I am a lot less certain about the result than I was a month ago!
For the record though, I will put down a prediction of a Greens retain with a 2CP starting with 53 (within the 53-54% range), so a 2CP swing of 8-9% due mostly to a lot of the factors you mentioned.
Primary votes I will say will be around 40% LIB (roughly +9) and maybe 42% Greens (roughly +5.5) due to Labor not running, with 18% others (mostly ex-Labor voters) whose preferences will spray around but probably split around 11-7 in favour of the Greens, due to low HTVC adherence and most Labor voters naturally favouring the Greens over the Liberals.
Thanks for the nice words too. I do usually only comment here around election times because I’m more interested in the analysis and psephology side of the conversations here than I am the discussions around policy and partisan bickering. I’ve never hidden my own political leaning as a mostly Labor-turned-Greens voter, but try to keep my analysis as objective as possible. In this case especially, I’m hoping that my prediction is actually being overly cautious & conservative and the Greens outperform it, but I’m trying to look at all the factors realistically.
Absolutely Kage – the Vic State election is 20 months away, and anything could happen.
Of more importance are these two by-elections, especially Prahran as it will be a good litmus test for Macnamara.
Of more importance is the Federal gov’t’s prospects in Victoria. On current read, and in fact since around Jun-4 last year when that YouGov poll turned up (24-41 : check poll data tab), this was the time when the Fed polling out of Victoria turned sour.
Per Katie Allen, this is her stunning electoral history;
* 2018 Prahran (State) election. She shedded 10% on the primary.
* 2019 Higgins (Fed) election. She lost 6% on the 2PP, but managed to hang on
* 2022 Higgins (Fed) election. Lost her seat after shedding another 5% off the 2PP.
In comparison, Battin has retained his seat.
Katie Allen did win a preselection vote, over Marcus Pearl, but it was for Higgins before it was abolished. A third of Higgins then proceeded to be transferred to Chisholm. So it isn’t precisely true to say “the locals” didn’t preselect her.
Just catching up with this poll and I agree – this indicates a looming Labor defeat in Victoria. If it carries over from State to Federal Labor, it will also kill Albanese’s hopes in Victorian seats.
I have to ask – what are the factors making Vic Labor so unpopular? There is nothing in Battin that warrants this result. It is a clear rejection of the Allen government.
I note that Victorian home prices have dropped. There must be a lot of people with negative equity in their homes, having bought high, and now facing higher interest rates on mortgages while perhaps being unable to sell at a price that clears their debt. This would explain the grim results in the 35 – 54 age group. Or am I missing something else?
Not surprising government losing support because Victoria has a pattern since the 1970s where once government’s support peaks it goes downhill until it’s out of office and there’s an election where there’s a swing against the government but not much change in seats before that government loses badly at the next election.
No probs Trent, looks like we’ve got a Vic by election thread up and running so I’ll keep an eye on your comments if/when you have time to drop by.
WB – sorry to be a pest, but seeing as you’re around.. Is there any “truth” in that Resolve speculation the other night that they have changed their methodology. It was the first I heard of it on your site.
Before the end of 2023, the average Resolve poll had 2.6% higher than Newspoll and the Coalition 3.7% lower. Since then, it’s had Labor 2.4% lower and the the Coalition 0.8% higher. So pretty clearly something has happened. I suspect at least one of the things that’s changed is that they’ve started weighting by Indigenous Voice vote.
I think the poll really needs to be verified by further data, really. At most, it probably means that Werribee might be in trouble for the by-election. Victoria’s poor showing for the feds isn’t anything new, or indeed anything Federal Labor are doing anything about – which is a curious strategy towards a state that has so many seats for them to lose when they’re on the edge of minority.
There are a lot of things that need to play out in state politics before any firm conclusions can be drawn. A lot of infrastructure projects are going to be completed this year (West Gate “Tunnel”, Metro Tunnel, more LXRs) – which is going to make a lot of the press narratives towards the Government look pretty silly. Plenty of people are also going to benefit from housing becoming more affordable in Victoria and the economy is doing fairly well and the state is returning to being a net receiver of interstate migration, so there’s a lot that needs to work its way through the system before November 2026.
I think discussion around Pakenham is… interesting given the huge investment from the state in the area on basically everything. If the swing is going to be anywhere, I suspect it’ll be the Epping-Wollert, Greenvale-Mickleham-Donnybrook and Truganina-Tarneit-Werribee areas. While there’s a lot of investment in those areas too, it either happened outside political memory or providing the basics people don’t notice.
I think Allen is doing fine – nothing spectacular. I don’t think she’s really making any policy or strategic mis-steps, other than not having the presence and following of Andrews. Battin is going to also have a difficult task enunciating what he can provide for the west and outer south-eastern suburbs, Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo while cutting the budget, halting tunnel-boring machines already in the ground, and feeding the MAGA trolls. Hard to say if he can do it yet, as Andrews himself came out of basically nowhere to defeat a first-term Government, and this is Labor’s third with all the baggage that entails.
There is also a rise in outright negative sentiment towards people born in, or with ancestry from, southern and western Asia that is likely going to intensify with the federal campaign. Regardless of anyone’s thoughts on the matter, the Liberals balancing an emboldened base and potential coalition partners who want to lean more towards a MAGA-like campaign in a state that is least responsive to it, which will likely involve attacks on the voters they need to win, is going to be quite the task. This could be compounded in that many seats the Coalition needs to win to gain Government having either very large minorities or a plurality of voting population who are of western or southern Asian descent. How Battin and Dutton manage that remains to be seen.
TLDR; this isn’t 2001 anymore and the state election is nearly 22 months away and a lot will happen over that period.
Thks
Socratessays:
Friday, January 24, 2025 at 12:41 pm
I have to ask – what are the factors making Vic Labor so unpopular.
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Victorian’s have just had a gutful of the corruption and the politicisation of the public service.
Time for a refresh.
Socrates
People that own a second home are pissed off. During Covid, land tax relief was implemented. Deferrals of payments and discounts of 25 per cent.
Fast forward to 2024. There is a Covid repayment levy as well as making lower threshold values to pay land tax.
Meanwhile nursing degrees are free. Kindergarten is free.
And up until other day, police force had rejected pay deals. They felt that the govt were favouring nurses, teachers, and paramedics, and disrespecting them.
As the saying goes, you can’t please everyone.
I think Prahran would have been more of a litmus test for Macnamara if Labor had run, but in the absence of Labor I think it will be hard to read.
The reason being Labor will lose Macnamara if there is any swing against them to either the Greens or Liberals. It doesn’t really matter which one gets the bigger swing, or even if the Greens go backwards as long as they go backwards less than Labor does. For example a -2% Greens swing, -4% Labor swing and +8% Liberal swing would still result in a Greens win.
So really the key to Macnamara isn’t whether voters will swing to or from the Greens or Liberals, but whether the Labor vote will hold up, and without a Labor candidate running in Prahran the result really won’t give us any insight into that.
This year the metro tunnel will open a year ahead of schedule.
Also over the last five years, the amount of level crossing removals has been amazing.
There have been issues with the Westgate tunnel, due to dispute of contaminated soil, but that too is nearing completion.
And this
——++
Victoria has seen the most significant annual increase in first-home buyer loans, with a growth rate of 14.6%, substantially outpacing Queensland” 4.5% and New South Wales’ 10.9%. South Australia also showed robust growth at 8%.