Nine Newspapers yesterday had Resolve Strategic’s quarterly state breakdowns, combined from their past three monthly polls. These aren’t news with respect to the three largest states, results for which are provided with each poll. That leaves fresh results for Western Australia, which show Labor on 30% (up one on last quarter, down from 36.8% at the 2022 election), the Coalition on 37% (up two, up from 34.8%), the Greens on 12% (down four, down from 12.5%) and One Nation 5% (steady, up from 4.0%). and South Australia, which show Labor on 27% (down one on last quarter, down from 34.5% at the election), the Coalition on 34% (down two, down from 35.5%), the Greens on 12% (down two, down from 12.8%) and One Nation on 8% (up two, up from 4.8%). The combined sample for the poll was 4831, with surveying conducted between October 1 and December 8.
Also published on Sunday were familiarity and net likeability results for 34 politicians from the most recent monthly survey. These seem to have elicited rote responses for most of the lower-ranking government ministers, eight of whom scored between between 41% and 55% on name recognition and between minus one and minus five on net likeability. Coalition politicians in the same name recognition range did better, ranging from even to plus seven.
The most instructive results were for those with familiarity scores of 70% and upwards, peaking at 98% for Anthony Albanese (minus 17 on net likeability) and 95% for Peter Dutton (even). Jacinta Price was the most favoured major party politician with 71% familiarity and plus 8 net likeability, though David Pocock and a number of Liberals did only slightly less well with much lower familiarity scores. Labor’s best performer was Penny Wong with 89% familiarity and plus 2 on net likeability. The worst result for a major party politician was Barnaby Joyce with 90% familiarity and minus 22 net likeability.
Jacqui Lambie tops the list, with 80% familiarity and plus 14 net likeability. David Pocock and Zali Steggall’s results were respectively good and mediocre, but otherwise non-major party politicians did poorly, Adam Bandt, Sarah Hanson-Young, Bob Katter and Fatima Payman all landing between minus 11 and minus 17. Worst-rated of all was Lidia Thorpe, whose recent activities have succeeded to the extent of scoring her 73% familiarity, with a net rating of minus 41 presumably demonstrating one point or another.
UPDATE: Further results have been published for age broken down into three cohorts. For 18-to-34, Labor is on 33% (up two from last quarter, steady on what was presumably the pre-election Resolve Strategic poll), the Coalition 27% (up two on both counts), the Greens 23% (down four, down two). For 35-to-54, Labor is on 30% (up two and down four), the Coalition 34% (down two and up two) and the Greens 12% (steady on both counts). For 55-plus, Labor is on 25% (down two and down eight), the Coalition 50% (up three and up four) and the Greens 4% (steady and down one).
Happy New Year’s Eve everyone!
Wow, we’re almost done with the first quarter century of the 21st century. I never thought I’d be here this long, only because it seemed so far away in 2000 and you never know what can happen, but here we are!
I get the feeling 2025 will be wild!
More grim polling news for Labor. Is there a circuit breaker left ?
Resolve which is lib/nats leaning poll , state figure shows the federal lib/nats are not gaining ground
37% WA and 34% SA, for the federal Lib/nats , with the political environment going against Labor , would have been leadership change for the federal liberal party in the pre 2022 federal election era
Jim Chalmers has paved the way for a new year Mediscare campaign, declaring Peter Dutton would undermine the national health insurance scheme and push down wages, as the Treasurer spruiked $5bn of Labor welfare and wage increases coming into force on January 1.
Ahead of an election set to be dominated by cost of living and which could be called in a matter of weeks, the Opposition Leader declared in his new year message that the Coalition would aim to “restore our national confidence” if it won power.
But a day after telling The Australian that he wanted voters to be optimistic about the future, Dr Chalmers on Monday repeatedly claimed the opposition would dismantle Medicare should it win office, in a signal of what could be a negative and aggressive election campaign on both sides. “Our major focus in 2025 is people who are still doing it tough even though inflation is coming down and wages are up,” Dr Chalmers said. “The meaningful and responsible cost of living help which began in 2024 will be the key priority into 2025 as well. “The biggest risk to household budgets in 2025 is Peter Dutton, who’d come after Medicare and wages again, push electricity prices up, and risk the progress we’ve made together in our economy.”
In a revival of Bill Shorten’s Mediscare campaign that almost cost the Coalition majority government in 2016, Dr Chalmers accused Mr Dutton of “going after Medicare” in eight of his 11 announcements and media appearances over the past two weeks.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labor-set-to-revive-mediscare-campaign-for-2025-election/news-story/c8e78fea8774f8e08468394d1152bf9c?amp
John Howard and Peter Costello have attacked Donald Trump’s plan to levy a tariff of 10 to 20 per cent on goods imports to the US, including from Australia, and questioned whether it might be illegal under international law given the free-trade agreement signed in 2004.
In exclusive interviews with The Australian ahead of the release of the 2004 cabinet papers from the National Archives of Australia on Wednesday, the former prime minister and treasurer urged the Albanese government to argue strongly that Australia should be exempt.
Mr Howard, who negotiated the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement 20 years ago, labelled Mr Trump’s tariff proposals as “ridiculous” and “crazy” and said they would damage the international economy. “I am concerned to put it mildly, very concerned, about Trump’s talk about tariffs,” Mr Howard said. “Trade has delivered millions of people out of poverty. Unilaterally imposing tariffs of that order of magnitude on countries willy-nilly is just bad for world trade and it’s bad for the world economy.”
Mr Costello added that Australia would also be collateral damage from the president-elect’s proposed 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports to the US given Australia’s $200bn annual exports to China, including iron ore, natural gas and gold. “A lot of our raw materials end up being put into manufactured goods by the Chinese and exported to the US,” the former treasurer said. “So, I am not in favour of tariffs. That would not be good for Australia. It’s certainly, in my view, not in the spirit, if not the letter, of the free-trade agreement, and we should be doing everything we can to try and convince the Americans of that.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/john-howard-and-peter-costello-challenge-anthony-albanese-on-donald-trumps-possibly-illegal-tariffs/news-story/fee4c28061233cb997280cfe34103167?amp
So you want to build a nuclear reactor. For those that want to understand a small nuclear reactor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89KYlEzW5_M
Under Dutton’s plan this all has to happen in 10 years.
The SMR seems like a good idea, bu it is not going to happen in 10 years.
What the Liberals want to do is commit to this program before the two prototypes are built ( 2032 is the build date).
Lars Von Trier still trying to gin up Resolve, a Liberal-leaning poll, over Newspoll, a neutral poll, I see. 🙄
For those that want to know what sun cable are doing.
This is what Dutton wants to stop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0Ouy5_5yl4
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 6:13 am
More grim polling news for Labor. Is there a circuit breaker left ?
_____________________
Full on personal attacks looks to be where they are heading.
Nothing will be off limits.
From the article about the Resolve quarterlies:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/young-voters-slip-away-from-greens-after-year-of-cost-of-living-clashes-20241219-p5kzog.html
Morning all. Thanks for the lead-in articles HH.
THere are a lot of retrospective articles at this time of year in various fields. That includes shipping and naval security. Some of these relate to AUKUS (and Hunter frigates).
This article looks at the state of the Royal Navy and UK shipbuilding. Both are in poor shape. There is understanding that the USA might not deliver any SSNs to Australia despite paying them $5 billion uip front. There seems less awareness that the situation with UK is just as bad or worse. Like USA, UK is not able to build enough ships and subs for what it needs. USA lacks shipbuilders. UK lacks both shipbuilders and money.
https://www.navylookout.com/a-year-in-review-the-royal-navy-in-2024/
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 7:27 am
Full on personal attacks looks to be where they are heading.
Nothing will be off limits.
——————
By the lib/nats propaganda media units, they been doing it non stop against Labor and still will be doing it
As for the article on Resolve polls, I note in SA that both Labor and Liberal votes are still down from their 2022 figures.
If correct this may make Sturt both hard for the Liberals to hold and hard for Labor to win. Another cross-bencher might be in the offing.
TM
“ Full on personal attacks looks to be where they are heading.
Nothing will be off limits.”
——————
Sounds like the Murdoch press.
Yes family shouldn’t be dragged into public but
If politicians didn’t want their families to be dragged into the public, they shouldn’t allow the media to, in this case mostly the lib/nats propaganda media units to do fluff pieces to try to help the federal liberal party leader Peter Dutton, by using Peter Dutton’s wife in
Peter Dutton is not a monster
Holdenhillbilly @ #4 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 6:22 am
I think a Mediscare campaign is now risky – the opposition could counter with the problems currently facing healthcare in Australia along the lines that Medicare is both broke and broken. I expect that the crisis in senior medical staff in NSW will be ongoing at the time of the election.
Thanks C@t. The anti-Greens sentiment was evident a few months ago as people became fed up with their constant blocking and stopping the government from getting on with the business of governing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/12/30/trump-appeal-e-jean-carroll-defamation-sexual-abuse/
Tony Award-winning actor Linda Lavin dies at 87
Veteran stage and TV actor Linda Lavin, known for her iconic role in the sitcom Alice, has died at the age of 87 due to lung cancer complications. Lavin’s illustrious career spanned Broadway and Hollywood, earning her a Tony Award and numerous accolades
https://www.indiatoday.in/movies/hollywood/story/tony-award-winning-actor-linda-lavin-dies-87-lung-cancer-2657483-2024-12-30?utm_source=Story_hp&utm_medium=Story&utm_campaign=home_Story
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/12/31/resolve-strategic-state-breakdowns-and-personal-ratings-open-thread/#comment-4426533, interesting over 55s, about a quarter of PV not with the major parties duopoly
Confessions @ #17 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 8:28 am
I’d add that the sight of Max Hyphen-Hyphen standing next to the allegedly corrupt CFMEU unionists and the backing of Hamas and the, ‘From the River to the Sea’ nonsense wouldn’t have helped either.
Australians are generally not extremists and they would probably not like to see a political party trending that way.
VCT Et3e @ #20 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 8:37 am
They could be the support base for the Teals & PHON.
frednk @ #6 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 6:31 am
Fascinating – best case 1st SMR on grid within 4-5 years but more likely 2031
A reasoned decision on nuclear energy is essential for Australia but instead we are reduced to arguing about Blinky the three eyed fish.
Discussion not decision – I can’t edit on this computer
Musk calls MAGAs “contemptible fools” – says they must be “removed”, “root and stem”
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/12/28/2294127/-Musk-calls-MAGAs-contemptible-fools-says-they-must-be-removed-root-and-stem?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Musk tweet below
https://cdn.prod.dailykos.com/images/1382462/large/66E0AD4A-3A23-43A8-B2A8-5939BB9DB6B8.jpeg
Dutton will do the same thing with Australian ‘blue-collar’ workers. He will instigate them against ALP government with all sorts of crappy and vulgar nonsense and as soon as he gets elected, he will drive their wages down. And LNP bloggers on this site will be talking like Musk.
Elon Musk has been branded a “national security risk” by a former U.S. army general, who cited his concerns over the tech billionaire’s close ties with the Chinese government.
Lieutenant General Russel L. Honoré, who retired in 2008, highlighted Musk’s history of appeasing and praising the Chinese Communist Party and his multiple business deals with the party, particularly in the modern space race.
The close relationship between Musk and Trump has already raised eyebrows in Washington, with many on both sides of the aisle questioning the amount of influence the tech boss has been allowed.
Even Ramaswamy has raised concerns about potential national security concerns surrounding Musk and China.
In May 2023, Ramaswamy publicly stated, “I have no reason to think Elon won’t jump like a circus monkey when [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping calls in the hour of need. “The U.S. needs leaders who aren’t in China’s pocket,” he wrote in a separate post on X, although he did not name Musk.
C@t:
Oh yes, definitely the backing Hamas, supporting the attacks on Labor electorate offices etc. And just the general carping and whingeing without any solutions.
This pearl clutching by Dutton and his crew about a Facebook post on the Victorian ALP page is puzzling.
There was no such ‘family is off limits’ when the Murdoch tabloids ran this front page.. and had full page happy snaps of the family inside.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/12/31/resolve-strategic-state-breakdowns-and-personal-ratings-open-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-4426547
… yup PHON, Alternatieve fuer Australien?
Katter.
UAP/ PUP.
JLN (noted the relative likeability).
Teals.
Independents.
Greens.
May be others?
The disgraced World health organisation Chinas bestie has finally come out and told China it needs to share all the information China has about the origins of Covid.
No chance the federal labor government Chinas other best friends will request the same.
The Chinese government say Failing Albanese is a “ special boy” or something.Communist Sellout and failure is accurate.
Oh look Kevin Rudd who is “here to help” his China take?
“Rat F-ckers.”
Watch Trump ramp up Covid issue against China.
‘Welfare Queen Musk’. I lolled. 🙂
The civil war between Donald Trump’s billionaire tech bro backers and everyday MAGA loyalists ramped up on Monday after Trump ally Laura Loomer called Elon Musk a “welfare queen.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/loomer-slams-welfare-queen-musk-in-surging-maga-civil-war/
Confessions @ #26 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 8:52 am
Even their so-called solutions, when they proffered them, were wildly unrealistic. Also a little juvenile. A Rent Cap? Poorly thought through and impossible to implement without causing destabilisation that an electorate would punish Labor for severely if they agreed to do it.
#weatheronPB
Cool, nourishing air,
gently moisturises me,
easing in the day.
Sprocket 8:57am
Some outstanding CGI or Photoshop work by the Murdoch boys to work Dutton’s face into a smile.
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 8:44 am
….
Fascinating – best case 1st SMR on grid within 4-5 years but more likely 2031
A reasoned decision on nuclear energy is essential for Australia but instead we are reduced to arguing about Blinky the three eyed fish.
Ya.
On reflection, as well as the Liberals pretending they are going to build what is essentially experimental reactors as the base for our energy future there are other issues.
The DOW one has a serious issue for a network that needs flexibility, yes it will not blow up but it keeps producing heat. For Dow that is not a problem as they can use the heat in there chemical process, but is no use to the Australian condition.
The other unit heats salt. This offers more flexibility. So we are down to one option.
For the sake of the nuclear industry, I hope it goes well.
Might be an option if such a machine is needed for the 10% of power they are promising to make nuclear, but as a basis of a strategy for the last 90%, it makes no sense.
It’s not about blinky, it’s about the figures that don’t add up, the total load will increase not decrease, the coal stations will not last for the dream to proven one way or another and the dream doesn’t amount to much anyway. We all depend on the energy grid. We cannot afford the Liberals undertaking an ideological experiment based on nonsense.
arraitch asked this last night, and I think it deserves an answer …
arraitch @ #1117 Monday, December 30th, 2024 – 10:22 pm
It is not true to say that party policies play “no” part. But both ColesWorth parties are either weak on policy or have bad policies in areas that I think are most significant – so which of their candidates would be a better local member is a more important criteria.
I understand why “rusted on” partisans find that difficult to comprehend. But many Australians are now looking past the the political brand names and finding the actual products they are being sold are inferior.
Like me, many are looking for better value for their voting dollar. Which is pretty much all that the voters seem to represent to the ColesWorth parties these days – something which Labor’s cynical attempt at campaign funding changes made abundantly clear.
https://www.eurasiareview.com/26122024-jesting-on-the-environment-australian-mining-gets-a-present-oped/
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Ben Jennings
Andy Davey
Peter Schrank
The New Yorker Colin Tom
Glen Le Lievre
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
NYM/ Samuel L Jackson: “Why can’t we get billionaires to pay their f_cking taxes? If those motherf_ckers paid their taxes we’d solve a whole bunch of sh_t. And they would still be richer than every motherf_cker walking around them.”
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 7:27 am
Full on personal attacks looks to be where they are heading.
Nothing will be off limits.
———
I don’t see what the big deal is about that meme, Dutton used his wife as a prop to try and soften his well-earned image so it’s kind of fair game. Regardless it will probably not help Labor if they are perceived to be going too personal, makes it look like they are out of constructive ideas..
If you think your having a bad day?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/LgfWECExmHI
Happy 2025 bludgers!!
frednk @ #35 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 9:36 am
Much in agreement. The TRISO pebble fuel has many advantages but the disadvantage that it hasn’t been produced to scale yet and the production of heat is a problem unless you can find a use for it.
The figures certainly don’t add up at present but this is moving very rapidly and Australia could well be left behind if this is only discussed on a partisan basis.
Player One says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 9:39 am
arraitch asked this last night, and I think it deserves an answer …
arraitch @ #1117 Monday, December 30th, 2024 – 10:22 pm
“Player One,
I think that the point which you were invited to respond to earlier was not whether you would give your first preference to a “ColesWorth” candidate, but rather the order in which you would rank said candidates. You seemed to suggest that your ranking would rest upon the quality of the candidates, which implies that their respective party policies would play no part in your decision. Or am I misreading you?”
It is not true to say that party policies play “no” part. But both ColesWorth parties are either weak on policy or have bad policies in areas that I think are most significant – so which of their candidates would be a better local member is a more important criteria.
I understand why “rusted on” partisans find that difficult to comprehend. But many Australians are now looking past the the political brand names and finding the actual products they are being sold are inferior.
Like me, many are looking for better value for their voting dollar. Which is pretty much all that the voters seem to represent to the ColesWorth parties these days – something which Labor’s cynical attempt at campaign funding changes made abundantly clear.
_______
Player One is a self-confessed policy-free zone. Arraitch, you have your answer.
Griff @ #44 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 9:55 am
If you read my post more slowly, you might understand it better.
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 9:53 am
frednk @ #35 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 9:36 am
….
Much in agreement. The TRISO pebble fuel has many advantages but the disadvantage that it hasn’t been produced to scale yet and the production of heat is a problem unless you can find a use for it.
The figures certainly don’t add up at present but this is moving very rapidly and Australia could well be left behind if this is only discussed on a partisan basis.
If they work out, we should be able to buy one or a number after the first one has worked. What do we have to do for this to happen?
The liberal are proposing nuclear for 10%. May be use-full to replace gas.
What happens for the first 90%? That is what the energy transition is working on now. That is what he liberals are trying to slow down.
Th Liberals turned Nuclear into a cultural war, if SNR prove to be a thing it should be a technical discussion when they are there to be brought.
.
Player One says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 10:02 am
Griff @ #44 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 9:55 am
“Player One is a self-confessed policy-free zone. Arraitch, you have your answer.”
If you read my post more slowly, you might understand it better.
_______
You can emphasise the rationalisation; I provided the outcome. Sorry that you cannot see the wood for the trees 😉
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-30/petrol-prices-accc-nrma/
Griff @ #47 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 10:07 am
And I’m sorry that you apparently don’t reflect in a mirror.
Looks like the Teals will hold the balance of power in the reps after the next election.
The LNP will not have enough to govern without support of the Teals and Greens.
An that means the end of the talk of nuclear reactors.
The LNP is fifty years behind the Australian decision to not want nuclear energy.
Are the LNP just dumb or do they treat the voters as dumb ?
By 2040 the Australian public will be laughing about the ridiculous nuclear Dutton as the energy revolution has revamped a tired and deceived world.