The Poll Bludger kicks off what promises to be an action-packed year with a comprehensive guide to a Western Australian state election now 66 days away. As always, this features pages for each of the lower house electorates including historic background and displays of past results in map, table and chart form, a guide to an election for the Legislative Council to be conducted for the first time under a new system that abolishes the old model of six-member regions, and a general overview of the situation. A full accounting of the post-redistribution margins and party vote shares can be found here. If any of this seems of value, a reminder that the bi-monthly Poll Bludger donation drive is also under way.
Some recent election-related developments since I last weighed in on the subject, either new or hitherto unnoticed by me:
• Steve Catania has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for Midland, to be vacated with the retirement of Michelle Roberts. Catania is a lawyer and former Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union organiser, the brother of Labor-turned-Nationals former MP Vince Catania, and the son of former Labor MP and Vincent mayor Nick Catania.
• Kyran O’Donnell, the Liberal member for Kalgoorlie from 2017 to 2021, announced in August he would run for the seat as an independent. O’Donnell is a former police officer and was elected to Kalgoorlie-Boulder City Council in October 2023. He was initially preselected for an unwinnable position on the Liberal Legislative Council ticket for the coming election.
• Three independents have emerged who can loosely be categorised at teals: Rachel Horncastle in Cottesloe, a general practitioner backed by the Cott Independent group; Lisa Thornton in Churchlands, a Stirling councillor backed by the Churchlands Independent; and Rosemarie de Vries in Nedlands, a Subiaco councillor. Another independent in a normally Liberal-held seat is former Global Lithium director Hayley Lawrance in South Perth, who disavows the teal label.
Interesting the Teals, if that’s what they are, still believe they are strong in that area.
All 3 of the state districts (Nedlands, Cottesloe & Churchlands) mentioned in the intro are located within the Fed Division of Curtin, with the state District of Cottesloe also taking in North Fremantle (which I believe is a strong ALP area). North Fremantle is not in the Division of Curtin.
Will be interesting to see how these three seats go, with my interest I suppose being the prospects Federally for Kate Chaney, when she comes up for election soon afterwards.
nb: My only interest with Kate Chaney is nothing personal or “anti Teal”, it’s just that I believe she got caught up in a pickle mid year with the live sheep trade issue backflip and also having a dig at the WA Police Service. Nothing other than that.
An interesting feature of this election is the Nationals are running candidates in a few metropolitan Perth seats for the first time in their history. They will be standing in Bateman, Bicton, Darling Range, Forrestfield, Kalamunda, Nedlands and South Perth will be curious to see how they go. Might do ok in semi rural seats like Darling Range and Kalamunda but probably not so well in the others.
For a big laugh click on the comprehensive guide.
What a slaughter it was!
Watch McGowan get trotted out which will be a nightmare for coalition.
I’d expect Labor to point to various infrastructure deliveries and get a 2017 style result with 2/3 of seats in the lower house. Labor would be crazy to feature McGowan given he’s clearly corrupted with his new endeavours.
Why has 1974 been redacted from the National Party’s history?
@pied piper McGowan is yesterdays news. That will only show Labors desperation. Its just like when the Liberals bring out John Howard…. You know theyre in trouble.
“Might do ok in semi rural seats like Darling Range and Kalamunda but probably not so well in the others.”
yAH, Agree with that. Nats in W.A. are in my experience quite different from the Federal or Qld Nats. Not colonized by the rabid RWNJobbies and / or Happy Clappers that are what the Libs and LNP are today.
“I’d expect Labor to point to various infrastructure deliveries and get a 2017 style result with 2/3 of seats in the lower house.”
Lol. People do lose sight of how the 2017 win set up the base conditions for a comprehensive slaughter later. 🙂 2017 result would be great. Particularly after the voting reform in the Legislative Council that NEEDED a once off win like the last time to get through.
With only four seats with a margin below 4%, Churchlands, Warren-Blackwood, Nedlands & Carine and a further three under 10%; Bateman, Geraldton & Scarborough it will be difficult for the LP or CP to win enough seats to be competitive.
To loose their majority a uniform swing of 22.0% against the government is required, and except for the above listed seats, their are eighteen seats which have a margin of between 10.1% and 22.0%.
Darling Range (14.2%) and Kalamunda (15.1%) seem out of the erange of the Country Party,too.
The presence of Country Party candidates can only split the conservative vote as their are always voyers who won’t preference the other Conservative Party.
Another big electoral win, with a possibility of loosing one or three seats which could make the CLP competitive in 2033.
2017 translated to federal Labor would have won most if not all fed seats.
2021 .Labor would have won all seats
A fine Aide Memoire.
I particularly like the line: “Perth Lord Mayor Basil Zempilas, a high-profile media personality who surprised nobody when he announced himself as a candidate for the normally blue-ribbon seat of Churchlands”
It’s compulsory preferential voting in the LA seats last time I checked.