Two more pollsters get their last results in for the year, one being the fortnightly Essential Research series, which has Labor down two to 30%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down two to 6%, with the undecided component steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged at Coalition 48%, Labor 47% and undecided 5%. Also included are the monthly leadership ratings which have Anthony Albanese down four on approval to 39%, his worst result of the term, with disapproval up two to an equal worst 50%. Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 44% and steady on 41% disapproval. A montly question on national direction reverses an improvement last month, with a four point drop in right direction to 31% and three point increase in wrong direction to 51%. The full report features a number of further questions in that vein. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1151.
The weekly Roy Morgan series, which may prove an exception to the rule of pollsters taking a break over Christmas and New Year, gives Labor its worst result of the term with a half-point drop on the primary vote to 27.5% while the Coalition gains three to 41%, with the Greens down half to 12.5% and One Nation down one-and-a-half to 5%. The headline two-party measure is unchanged on 52-48, but Labor does uncommonly well out of its respondent-allocated preference flow: the alternative measure based on 2022 election flows, which is invariably more favourable for Labor, has the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5 after a 50-50 result last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1672.
Lars Von Trier @ #28 Wednesday, December 18th, 2024 – 8:43 am
Why don’t you prove this bald-faced assertion with evidence, Lars Von Trier? I dare you.
As I wrote earlier on the previous thread:
People are unhappy for good reason, it’s pretty obvious why whether you like it or not.
And it’s all a matter of perception, whether you like to admit it or not.
I was listening to a couple of American people discuss this same thing the other day wrt the American election and they, being of a certain age, pointed out that actually the whole, eggs are expensive! thing is so overblown. They pointed out that we used to have to pay a lot more for clothing and just about anything that comes to us from China cheaply these days, that there was expensive petrol back in the day that you could only buy every other day going by your number plate number, that travel was for the wealthy, that new cars were expensive commodities to purchase and you rarely had more than one car per family and never a collection of vehicles, people struggled to pay off one house, let alone have investment properties and there was genuinely entrenched unemployment and genuinely high inflation. However, the Central Bankers and Treasurers of the world created ‘recessions we had to have’ and they tamed inflation and so for most people that’s all they have ever experienced, a prolonged ~30 year period of low inflation and rising asset values. So now they think that egg prices going up (due to Bird Flu mainly and thus a temporary thing) and the Post Covid inflation spike is the end of the world and they vote accordingly, without having the historical perspective to compare their lived experiences with. And I think this is 100% on the money, so to speak.
And ‘10% decline in standard of living’ compared to what? The sugar hit high of the Covid payment era? Be specific.
Under the federal Labor government
Labor was expected to get inflation lower then it was under the federal lib/nats, Labor did it in less than 2 years in their first term
Labor produced surpluses which the former federal lib/nats government claimed to do but never ,
Interest rate rise was not caused by the Federal Labor government , and it would be very doubtful whether the federal lib/nats if they were still the government would even halted the interest rate rise for over a year . or even inflation would be going down
I still remember when the federal lib/nats cut the fuel excise for 6 months , the federal lib/nats propaganda media units tried to claim if Labor were to win the 2022 federal election , fuel prices would reach over $ 3 per litre
Fuel prices have been lower under Labor than they were under the federal lib/nats government
Rewi:
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 10:04 am
Dan Tehan shows leadership potential, though.
Affirmative!
Confessions says:
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 6:51 am
Today’s youth…
Is it a heavy reliance on social media for news without any critical, independent thought? Or something else?
———
People feel they have no future and are being squeezed dry by greedy, inhumane corporations who are complicit themselves in condemning people to death or bankruptcy through the decisions they make. In that context it’s not surprising if more people are becoming radicalised. Younger people do not watch much or trust mainstream media and tend to get their news from independent, niche sources. Regardless of people’s view as to the murder of the United Healthcare CEO, there is little sympathy across the political spectrum for him given his actions, this company tops the leaderboard in denying 32% of claims. You can’t keep mistreating a dog and expect it to not bite back.
C@t just take a deep breath and repeat “Lars was and is right”. You’ll immediately feel better when you say it and you won’t worry about things as much.
Guardian’s poll aggregator has just been updated.
LNP – 38.3
ALP – 26.8
Oth – 22.2
Gre – 13.3
2pp 52.5:47.5 to LNP.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2024/nov/02/labor-v-the-coalition-who-is-leading-in-the-polls
Lars Von Trier @ #56 Wednesday, December 18th, 2024 – 10:17 am
I think you should stop admiring yourself in the mirror when YOU say that. 😐
Wow that alp primary is sub JS now. Amazeballs.
I also see you have no answers to the specific questions I asked you to provide evidence to substantiate. Unsurprisingly, Lars Von Trier, because you got none. Just vibes you try and convince the gullible with.
Wow that Coalition Primary is still below 40. Amazeballs. 😐
Seems like Labor after stabilising somewhat are seeing a further dive in their primary and 2PP vote, it’s looking rather grim for their prospects at the next election, I think people are set on their view of Albo in particular.
Still no one has an answer for this quote?
Through much of its first term, opinion polling was disappointing for the government.
I see the ALP+Green vote share (40.1%) is still above 40% and still higher than the LNP (38.3). Unsurprising 🙂
I’d really like to know how many of those “other” 22.2% are going to teals before I made any foreasts of an LNP majority. Without that we are only making predictions based on less than 80% of the vote.
I still think a Labor minority government is the most likely outcome, given that Dutton’s nuclear thought bubble means all the Teals and most other independents will not support him to be PM. Pete is taking a huge gamble.
goll at 8.50 pm
“Last night’s attempt to convolute individual electoral variations was laughable.”
Please be more specific in your criticism.
E.g. Cowper. Nat margin vs Indie standing again is only 2.4%, a bit over 5,000 votes. See:
https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-final-boundaries-for-nsw-released/
What was the biggest component of that margin in 2022? Remarkably, Labor voters giving their preference to the Nats (and hence Promo Morrison). Nearly 22.6% of Labor voters (3,511) were either completely confused or wanted to to give the LNP a leg up in a tight contest.
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-113.htm
That dunderhead factor is unlikely to be greatly diminished in 2025. So Cowper = Nat retain.
Labor may well return to government but if the Guardian’s numbers are accurate you’d think it’ll end up with sub 65 seats, with an expanded crossbench – in other words in a deep minority position. 2PP has to be getting increasingly unreliable with more non-traditional contests, LNP might win the 2PP comfortably v ALP in many seats eventually won by teals but that’s all for nought if the LNP are not winning these seats.
Pretty remarkable to see the two major parties taking less than 2/3 votes collectively on that polling aggregation. On those figures you’d have to think that there’s virtually no prospect of a majority government.
Socrates at 10.38 am
Lars is the only name on the board with a specific seat guess so far: Lab 71, LNP 67, rest 12.
If you do the figures, he is expecting the Greens to lose their Brissie seats, or 3 Teals to lose, but he has not indicated which Teals, if any, he thinks are likely to lose.
Mj
The guardian is no where near close to the mark, it is saying its own essential poll is wrong
And majority of opinion poll been Labor around 32/33%
Scott says:
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 10:11 am
I still remember when the federal lib/nats cut the fuel excise for 6 months , the federal lib/nats propaganda media units tried to claim if Labor were to win the 2022 federal election , fuel prices would reach over $ 3 per litre
Fuel prices have been lower under Labor than they were under the federal lib/nats government
————————————.
The fuel excise is a de facto carbon tax. And it mostly affects low income people, as it cuts into their available spending money.
The people Labor and Liberal politicians care little about.
Alan Kohler, March 17, 2022
Petrol excise is Australia’s de facto carbon tax – cutting it would confirm that the Morrison government is not serious about dealing with climate change.
Alan Kohler: Don’t touch the petrol excise. It’s Australia’s carbon tax
https://search.app/j4CiNuMoDS9CUzM9A
Petrol excise has been a political toy for the Coalition for 44 years.
It was imposed by the Fraser government in 1978, after winning the 1977 election. This was also two years after the Australian Academy of Science first reported that human activities were contributing to global warming, not that the petrol excise had anything to do with that.
Then Treasurer John Howard said Australians were enjoying artificially low prices for Australian crude oil after the oil shock of 1973, so he slipped in a petrol tax at 3.5 cents a litre, taking the price to an artificially higher 21 cents.
The tax is now 13 times that and the average price of petrol is about 10 times what it was then, so as it happens the rise in the excise has run ahead of the price.
A political toy
In the lead-up to the 2001 election, Prime Minister John Howard cut the excise by 1.5 cents a litre and froze the indexation of petrol excise that had been introduced by Paul Keating in 1987 – that is, he stopped the rate rising with inflation.
It was a popular move for votes, but unnecessary as it turned out: He beat Kim Beazley handsomely in November because of 9/11 and Tampa.
In 2008, the floundering Liberal Opposition leader, Brendan Nelson, promised in his budget reply speech to cut the petrol excise by 5 cents a litre, saying: “Petrol is now hurting Australians in every walk of life and in every part of the nation. There is only one way that an Australian government can actually do anything decisive about the price of petrol – and that is to cut taxes.”………
mj at 10.44am
I think 2PP is getting increasingly unreliable, LNP might win the 2PP comfortably v ALP in many seats eventually won by teals but that’s all for nought if the LNP are not winning these seats.
——————-
Yep, this is the biggest takeaway I think. 2PP might ultimately mean very little.
Dr D, my guess
Net 7 seats from Labor to Libs
I think 2 from teals to Libs
Not sure about Ryan and Brisbane going from Greens to Libs
I am aiming to make my annual predictions before nye. I invite you to make ur guess/ prediction then too!
Antisemitism has its uses, it seems …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/dec/17/concerns-new-police-powers-in-victoria-could-be-used-to-target-climate-movement
Gotta stop those nasty climate protesters before people start looking up from their phones and noticing what’s happening around them 🙁
Scottsays:
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 10:48 am
Mj
The guardian is no where near close to the mark, it is saying its own essential poll is wrong
And majority of opinion poll been Labor around 32/33%
_____________________________________
A weird interpretation of the figures. Of the 30 polls included in bludgertracker since from October fewer than a quarter have had alp on at least 32. Even looking over the full ytd its fewer than a third of polls showing labor at or over 32.
You have to wonder when Albo is going to finally pull the plug on the RBA …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-18/gloomier-economy-to-shape-election-mid-year-budget/104740160
Will he wait until another 85,000 people lose their jobs, as the RBA wants? All the while welcoming record numbers of migrants into a country with a housing crisis? Just so he can claim Australia is not “technically” in recession?
A true Labor hero.
Irish President Michael D Higgins replies to Bibi while accepting the credentials of the Palestinian Ambassador.
President Higgins said that said that it is a “deep slander” and “a very serious business” to describe the Irish people as anti-Semitic because they disagree with the actions of the Israeli Prime Minister. Benjamin Netanyahu has breached “so many bits of international law and the sovereignty of three of his neighbours”.
He reiterated condemnation of the actions of Hamas on 7 October 2023, but said the response by Israel has resulted in the deaths of more than 45,000 people, including children, in Gaza.
All of the details of the tragic breaches of international law have informed the Irish position, the president said.
He added that the Irish psyche understands the words: dispossession, occupation and so on.
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2024/1217/1486987-ireland-israel/
Socrates @ #64 Wednesday, December 18th, 2024 – 10:38 am
Exactly. To which I will add this again before the Coalition fan club gets too carried away:
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
#Essential (primaries not on same scale as other polls because undecided left in) ALP 30 L-NP 35 Green 13 ON 6 UAP 1 Ind/other 11 undecided 5
Their “2PP+” (respondent prefs) L-ALP trails 47-48 (=49.5, unchanged)
My last-election estimate for this poll 51.8 to ALP (+0.1)
Dr Doolittle and Lars
I do not have a good feel for seat specifics in the next election other than here in SA. Lars’ prediction may well be accurate, but I don’t have enough information to confirm it or provide an alternative.
Overall, with “Other” sitting at 20%+, I find it hard to see why some are so confident 3 of 6 Teals will lose? I would have thought their numbers will go up not down. The history is that independents with grassroots support, once elected, are very hard to shift. Rebekah Sharkie here in Mayo, SA is a good example. There are some seats where Teals are a chance to win more off the Liberals (e.g. Bradfield).
I agree Labor will lose seats to the LNP/Libs in NSW and possibly Vic. In SA I think it is quite possible Labor or Greens will pick up a seat (Sturt).
I still don’t see how the LNP are going to get to 70+ seats. Nor do I see how they will persuade enough Indies to support them, when they are actively campaigning against most of them.
All that being said, a “hung” parliament is a distinct possibility this time.
Finally, both major parties always argue for majority governments, because that has been our norm and is in their interests. But vote shares are changing. Coalitions are the norm in many countries, with still stable governments. It may be becoming our new normal.
I thought over the last month or so it looked like the fall in the ALP vote had stabilised. It seems like they are falling again. Although the Coalition primary is also a little below where it needs to be.
With bad news in the MYEFO, I think the government is going to the polls early.
Nothing so far is swaying my prediction from
Qld LNP Primary vote boosted over 40% maybe LNP seats increase to 24/25
Nationwide Lib/nats combined primary vote under 40%
Federal Lib/nats are likely to lose more seats than they gain in QLD
Federal Lib/nats total under 55 seats in the house of reps , less then they currently hold now
@Dr Doolittle:
“ Lars is the only name on the board with a specific seat guess so far: Lab 71, LNP 67, rest 12.”
___________
Put me down for a bit of xmas political punditry whimsy:
May election.
Labor 76, LNP 58, others 16.
The wheels to fall off the LNP’s piss and wind routine in the finishing straight, even with Newscorpse, 7West and their ABC (‘for balance’ of course) riding shotgun for Dutton.
Primary’s at the election to be Labor 32.5, LNP 37.5, Greens 11.5, others 18+
2PP 51/49 Labor.
LNP to pick up up to 5 seats from Labor, but lose two in return. Labor to pick up one of the Greens seats in Brisbane ands one LNP seat in Qld as well. Sturt in SA too. Fowler to come home to Labor (hey, I said this was whimsy). LNP to lose another seat to the march of the Teals and fail to get any back (a boil-over – again – with Ryan beating Hamer in late counting).
Labor will only lose one seat in each of the following jurisdictions:
NT, WA, Victoria, Tasmania and NSW.
I’m not sure my maths is 100% in terms of the net seat changes, but hey – given ‘centre’s’ anti renewable/pro nuclear flood the zone with shit postings, we seem to be in a post facts era on bludger …
Socrates, I agree I still struggle to see the Coalition getting past 70 on the current numbers. I think at best they will only get the support of Katter, Le and maybe Sharkie. That still looks like some kind of ALP/Greens/Teals mega alliance as the most likely government.
It remains to be seen if the prospect of an ALP/Greens alliance may push the ALP votes down further, or whether it may start to convert more undecided into Coalition votes. The Coalition needs a primary of about 42%, they are still well south of that.
Labor likely to gain 3-5 seats , extra on the 78 seats they hold , include Aston, Dunkley
Fowler
Deakin
Casey
the others are 50/50
The next leader of the Liberals Party is the nonagenarian Rupert with siblings fighting over the relative ascenscion.
A somewhat negative observance from others around the globe particularly so because of the subservient liberal tenet to be observed always.
Trump and Musk have diminished the News banner in the USA and Old Rupert is wanting a clear pathway for retreat.
There is a long way to go till the 2025 election with the interim Liberal leader still failing to present himself to the voters preferring the nuclear whiteboard maneuver suggested by the new Liberal leader in the Senate.
The media have provided plenty of diversionary cover for the LNP and they’re showing signs of the innocuous and can’t mount the final hurdle.
Perhaps they should enlist Barnaby to do the mounting on their behalf.
The irony, but it looks like the Greens and Teals have been found to be holding all the crackers!
Over 70% of the Australian population believe that climate change is happening.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1053581/australia-share-of-people-who-believe-climate-change/#:~:text=A%20survey%20on%20the%20perception,that%20climate%20change%20was%20occurring.
They also have pretty sensitive bullshit detectors. Once the election campaign kicks off, focus on Dutton’s nuclear folly will intensify, and in parallel to that, focus on the intentions of the religious loons who are infesting the Libs.
I predict status quo.
Putting Labor into minority government is almost as good as a win for the liberals. Remembering of course that Labor’s 2022 result was fairly poor for a change of government result.
Irene says:
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 9:25 am
…
Labor shows continuing lack of interest in First Nations communities.
…
Why should people there vote for Labor?’
====================
Because they will most likely ignore Irene’s repeated Big Lies.
Specifically, because Labor put together a national $4.7 billion anti DV package with specific separate measures for Indigenous women.
Because Labor put together an NT housing measure for remote Indigenous communities of $4 billion.
Who are they trying to kid.
If they properly taxed the fossil fuel cartel and the business side of religious organisations the economy would be much much better.
But both major parties have sold out for political donations.
The practical error being made is that because of the Senate, Labor has been a de facto minority government for this term. The result is that Big No and Little no have worked together to delay and block legislation and regulation. This has been consistent, persistent and big.
Adding minority status in the House will almost certainly result in additional delays and blockages. Katter having the BOP in the House while Babet holds it in the Senate should give any rational person pause for thought.
Australian governance structures are becoming an existential threat to Australian democracy.
Further to my last post, a surprising development is an increase in union membership. People know who will protect the rights of the lower paid, and more importantly, who will not.
Sadly, international affairs will have an impact here. Although he is a significant bullshitter, even if Trump introduces some of his intended policies, it will impact the world. Dutton is Trump-lite. Activities in the Middle-east will continue to disgust the majority of voters.
The LNP’s policy implentation or inaction in Qld and NT will impact their federal vote.
I’ll be shocked if Labor even attempts to form a minority Govt if they can’t win a majority.
It looks to me like a L/NP minority with the Teal or a new election.
Scott at 11.23 am
Careful, Lars will accuse you of double dipping. Labor has 78 (77 + Aston) including Dunkley. See:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results?filter=all&sort=az&state=all
You’ll need a Bullwinkel (unlikely) from WA and a wrong-un from Qld (Leichhardt) to get up.
Granny
People may wonder about the value of union membership.
They should ask the Qantas baggage handlers.
They have 120 million reasons to be glad they were TWU members.
dave at 11.33 am
“Putting Labor into minority government is almost as good as a win for the liberals.”
Dutton and his boosters will claim that, but minority state governments have usually done well.
Great work by the TWU on that.
Makes Albo’s cosy relationship with Alan Joyce look terrible.
cosy relationship
Rex at 11.43 am
“It looks to me like a L/NP minority with the Teal or a new election.”
Little evidence for that yet (see Lars’ numbers). LNP minority would need a host of Katters.
New elections tend to occur much more in continental type PR systems after chronic stasis. The Australian electorate, and so most politicians, is unappreciative of the excitement of a new vote.
Rossmcg at 11.49am, correct, and that message is being broadcast quietly around workplaces.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 9:23 am
There are only 10 ICU beds in Alice Springs, so having 13 female DV victims in ICU beds stretches credibility.
AS hospital has one of the largest dialysis clinics in Australia, which needs frequent ICU support – if much of the ICU is used fro DV victims, this would be a major restriction on providing healthcare.
==================================================
I’m shocked, Irene’s claim looks to be a total fabrication. Thanks for fact checking it though.
The truth matters.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 11:37 am
Irene says:
Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 9:25 am
…
Labor shows continuing lack of interest in First Nations communities.
…
Why should people there vote for Labor?’
====================
Because they will most likely ignore Irene’s repeated Big Lies.
Specifically, because Labor put together a national $4.7 billion anti DV package with specific separate measures for Indigenous women.
Because Labor put together an NT housing measure for remote Indigenous communities of $4 billion.
——————————- ————-
Wow! You don’t believe Labor MP Marion Scrymgour when she said 5 days ago – ‘Federal member for Lingiari Marion Scrymgour, who lives in Alice Springs, described the situation in her town as “anarchy”.’
First nations and non indigenous people women are fearful for their lives and safety.
I guess Boerwar being a man doesn’t know what the fuss is about, he would be happy living in Alice Springs.
And neither do the male decision makers in the Albanese Labor government. They have no understanding or empathy to see what the problem is.
From the abc report on December 13, 2024.
And the domestic violence funding $4.3billion over 10 years, Boerwar forgets the time part, with many women victims apparently not eligible.
I believe it was a continuation of Morrison policy too. Typical of Labor, most policies are.
$4billion for housing unlikely to go far. Compared to the HAFF $10billion funding for social housing, not for First Nations people in the NT, only providing 700 homes after a year of investment.
Labor has never been interested in First Nations people, certainly not in those in remote communities.
Of course compare to the $368billion AUKUS nuclear powered submarine generous gifts to the US and UK government, no analysis required, just take PM Morrisons word for it.
As we know we may never get them. But Treasurer Chalmers has already, easy to allocate $18billion – $8billion to accommodate nuclear powered submarines and an AUKUS radioactive waste dump near Rockingham, WA for 2027. Also for the radioactive waste dump near Adelaide.
And the over $4billion to each the US and UK to help them build these submarines.
Then the recent $1.3billion for the US Tomahawk missiles, designed to kill women and children as we see in Ukraine and Gaza.
Fact free comment from Boerwar, crumbs for the continuing danger, ignored by the Albanese government for First Nations people and women.
Labor are poor managers of taxpayers money.
As for Entropy, I did read at the time about 13 women in ICU during Albanese January 2023 visit.
And the rest of the articles state the facts including the one 5days ago on the abc.
But Labor supporters keep their heads in the sand, fortunately most voters do not. Poorer Australians and women are ignored when funding allocated.